2023 NBA Draft

[Steven43]

Adam Spinella has made a follow up video that does the whole 2023 NBA Draft, picks 1-60.



The lottery picks (including #3 Dariq Whitehead and #8 Dereck Lively) stay the same. Other ACC selections:

11. Baba Miller, FSU
17. Terquavion Smith, NCSU
20. Tyrese Proctor, Duke
25. Judah Mintz, Syracuse
28. Kyle Filipowski, Duke
42. Caleb Love, UNC

Dariq, Dereck, Tyrese, and Kyle we hardly knew ya!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Dariq, Dereck, Tyrese, and Kyle we hardly knew ya!

I have no snarky retort.

[MyFirstK'sLast]

20. Tyrese Proctor, Duke

It seems to me that the smaller analysts (often on Twitter, Youtube, or small podcasts) who live and breathe NBA draft (like those releasing big boards in mid-August) pretty consistently have Proctor in the first round. The nationwide draft analysts working for companies like ESPN, B/R, and The Athletic (rarely releasing anything draft-related this time of year) have yet to list him at all.

My guess is the top analysts will catch up and have Proctor as a first-rounder pretty soon. Of course, this will lead to all of the beloved OAD speculation.

[scottdude8]

It seems to me that the smaller analysts (often on Twitter, Youtube, or small podcasts) who live and breathe NBA draft (like those releasing big boards in mid-August) pretty consistently have Proctor in the first round. The nationwide draft analysts working for companies like ESPN, B/R, and The Athletic (rarely releasing anything draft-related this time of year) have yet to list him at all.

My guess is the top analysts will catch up and have Proctor as a first-rounder pretty soon. Of course, this will lead to all of the beloved OAD speculation.

I've noticed something similar... anecdotal evidence does not make a trend, but it certainly seems like this could be the case. If you put your tinfoil hat on, it might make sense that mock drafts intended for a mass audience may not feel the need to include a guy who has no name recognition, while smaller guys may want to "call their shot" and potentially up their credibility by getting on the Proctor train early.

[JasonEvans]

It is my understanding that Duke fully expects Proctor to be one and done. He's been functioning basically as a pro basketball player in Australia for several years now and the NBA has a ton of tape of him playing (well) against adults.

With Foster, McCain, Blakes, and Schutt all figuring to be on the roster in 2023-24, it is clear that the staff is prepared for Proctor to only be at Duke for one season.

[scottdude8]

It is my understanding that Duke fully expects Proctor to be one and done. He's been functioning basically as a pro basketball player in Australia for several years now and the NBA has a ton of tape of him playing (well) against adults.

With Foster, McCain, Blakes, and Schutt all figuring to be on the roster in 2023-24, it is clear that the staff is prepared for Proctor to only be at Duke for one season.

Thanks for the insight as always Jason... knowing that ahead of time will help make sure we don't get our hopes up, haha. It also makes a lot of sense given the strength of next year's recruiting class is on the perimeter, along with the expected (although we know this can always change) return of Blakes and Schutt.

One has to think that if Proctor plays himself into the first round that means VERY good things for Duke's chances this year... in fact, we could approach the NBA talent level of last year's squad if Proctor goes in the first round along with Lively, Whitehead, and Filipowski, as is currently projected. Proctor fits so perfectly in alongside Roach and Whitehead, and his playmaking ability compliments our strength down low so nicely, that there are a lot of tantalizing possibilities if he's playing at that level. Plus, I think the rotation might make more sense with him starting and Grandison playing a super-sixth man role, where he'll likely still get 20+ mpg playing 2-4 (we forget, but Grandison played a lot of small-ball 4 at Illinois, giving us another potential lineup wrinkle).

[HayYou]

Thanks for the insight as always Jason... knowing that ahead of time will help make sure we don't get our hopes up, haha. It also makes a lot of sense given the strength of next year's recruiting class is on the perimeter, along with the expected (although we know this can always change) return of Blakes and Schutt.

One has to think that if Proctor plays himself into the first round that means VERY good things for Duke's chances this year... in fact, we could approach the NBA talent level of last year's squad if Proctor goes in the first round along with Lively, Whitehead, and Filipowski, as is currently projected. Proctor fits so perfectly in alongside Roach and Whitehead, and his playmaking ability compliments our strength down low so nicely, that there are a lot of tantalizing possibilities if he's playing at that level. Plus, I think the rotation might make more sense with him starting and Grandison playing a super-sixth man role, where he'll likely still get 20+ mpg playing 2-4 (we forget, but Grandison played a lot of small-ball 4 at Illinois, giving us another potential lineup wrinkle).

Based on recruiting it seems obvious that the staff thinks Proctor will be OAD one way or another. Even if he's not a first round lock I think he'll go.

[brevity]

I've noticed something similar... anecdotal evidence does not make a trend, but it certainly seems like this could be the case. If you put your tinfoil hat on, it might make sense that mock drafts intended for a mass audience may not feel the need to include a guy who has no name recognition, while smaller guys may want to "call their shot" and potentially up their credibility by getting on the Proctor train early.

I think at this point -- with a whole college season yet to be played -- the purpose of an early mock draft is more about giving some structure to all the prospects out there, and less about getting the order right.

Adam Spinella, who made the videos I posted above, is a high school coach whose team faced Cam Whitmore twice in the past year. (He discloses this in a separate Whitmore video.) So there's probably some bias in ranking him the 4th overall pick, but it's a bias based on familiarity.

It's probably no coincidence that the other prospects he's scouted on his videos page (Judah Mintz, Dariq Whitehead, Jordan Hawkins, Dereck Lively, and Arthur Kaluma) all made his mock 1st round, and as higher picks than you may see elsewhere. He's done more research on them than on, say, JJ Starling, the Notre Dame newcomer that he doesn't have picked at all. Maybe it balances out as the season goes on, and he evaluates or re-evaluates draft prospects by seeing how they actually perform in college or elsewhere.

[JasonEvans]

Based on recruiting it seems obvious that the staff thinks Proctor will be OAD one way or another. Even if he's not a first round lock I think he'll go.

Yup, I think this is accurate. I don't have sources on this but I suspect Proctor would have to be nowhere in the draft conversation (like not even a likely 2nd rounder) for him to come back. That is just the sense I have of the situation.

Conversely, I think Flip would have to be pretty much a lottery lock for him to be certain of leaving. If he is a late-first kinda guy who could slip, I think he is pretty likely to return.

[scottdude8]

Yup, I think this is accurate. I don't have sources on this but I suspect Proctor would have to be nowhere in the draft conversation (like not even a likely 2nd rounder) for him to come back. That is just the sense I have of the situation.

Conversely, I think Flip would have to be pretty much a lottery lock for him to be certain of leaving. If he is a late-first kinda guy who could slip, I think he is pretty likely to return.

I think this makes sense with how international players tend to treat the draft process differently too, since for them the NBA isn't the be all/end all. I'd love to do some analysis on this (I'm ironically teaching myself Python for work right now, but think that I should be able to have some fun with that for my Bracketology/NET/Analysis posts and articles this fall too, so stay tuned!), but I bet guys who come from abroad may be more inclined to go to the NBA early, even if that means their NBA career is only a couple years, because they don't mind as much ending up overseas. Anecdotally, I think of a guy like Ignas Brazdeikis (yes, from Michigan), who went pro after a good-not-great freshman year and went in the mid-second round. He played three years in the league, but now is off to his native Lithuania to play in the Euro League, where I imagine he could play for another decade if he wants.

With the development of the NBL in Australia, if Tyrese has a short NBA career but a long career back home, that's a nice life for a young man. I'm sure he has higher aspirations, but all things considered that's a comfortable fall back that many American players, who might enjoy playing abroad less, don't have.

Reading between the lines here on Flip, with the additional context of the abrupt change in JP Estrella's recruitment, I have to wonder whether Jason is winking very hard with regards to the bolded. All things considered, we're likely going to have more fun this season if Flip blows up and ends up a consensus lottery pick, but the fact that he isn't coming in with a OAD-or-bust mentality is good, even if it means we're just setting ourselves up to get hurt again next Spring, haha.

[HayYou]

Yup, I think this is accurate. I don't have sources on this but I suspect Proctor would have to be nowhere in the draft conversation (like not even a likely 2nd rounder) for him to come back. That is just the sense I have of the situation.

Conversely, I think Flip would have to be pretty much a lottery lock for him to be certain of leaving. If he is a late-first kinda guy who could slip, I think he is pretty likely to return.

Frankly even if Proctor ISN'T in the draft conversation at all I'd expect him to leave Duke. G league or Excite or back to Ausie land. I think he'll be far better than that and be in the draft conversation, so it is a moot point, but I don't think he's planning on a multiyear stay in college.

As for Flip I do feel there is sone wiggle room here. I'm not sure he'll ever approach top 10 but late lottery is possible. Solidly middle first round is probable. If he's reliably projected in that late teens to early 20s range with talk that those just outside that range would love him to fall, I think he goes.

Regardless of what he thinks right now (and I agree that Jason probably has Flip's thinking essentially correct) I think that Flip's thinking will alter this season. If he plays well even on the low end of reasonable expectations, then Flip would be incredibly valuable to the teams at the end of the first round. Those are basically playoff teams drafting there and they need help off the bench immediately. No way Flip drops out of the first round and probably not lower than the mid 20s. And I think Flip could come to realize that his game is better on a more talented roster. I think Flip is a late teens guy myself after what I think will be a good year. Teams drafting higher usually look for more upside than I think Flip has. I don't agree always because I think they end up with guys who have low floors but they ain't asking me. Later picking teams are usually in win now mode and I think they'll see high value in Flip any pick after 18. I think Flip will ultimately be OK with that. First round salary on a talented team that will have success early which will lead to a fan base that really loves him. Solid start to a career.

[HayYou]

I think this makes sense with how international players tend to treat the draft process differently too, since for them the NBA isn't the be all/end all. I'd love to do some analysis on this (I'm ironically teaching myself Python for work right now, but think that I should be able to have some fun with that for my Bracketology/NET/Analysis posts and articles this fall too, so stay tuned!), but I bet guys who come from abroad may be more inclined to go to the NBA early, even if that means their NBA career is only a couple years, because they don't mind as much ending up overseas. Anecdotally, I think of a guy like Ignas Brazdeikis (yes, from Michigan), who went pro after a good-not-great freshman year and went in the mid-second round. He played three years in the league, but now is off to his native Lithuania to play in the Euro League, where I imagine he could play for another decade if he wants.

With the development of the NBL in Australia, if Tyrese has a short NBA career but a long career back home, that's a nice life for a young man. I'm sure he has higher aspirations, but all things considered that's a comfortable fall back that many American players, who might enjoy playing abroad less, don't have.

Reading between the lines here on Flip, with the additional context of the abrupt change in JP Estrella's recruitment, I have to wonder whether Jason is winking very hard with regards to the bolded. All things considered, we're likely going to have more fun this season if Flip blows up and ends up a consensus lottery pick, but the fact that he isn't coming in with a OAD-or-bust mentality is good, even if it means we're just setting ourselves up to get hurt again next Spring, haha.

I think Ried at Duke will be a great option in the post regardless of Flip. I also think that Estrella went from thinking of himself as a cog to being a featured player. He was always thought of as a cog as a frosh. Be it at a Duke/UK/KU type school or even at a lower profile program. He's probably still not a featured guy at a top tier team from day 1. But he can be a featured player on a lower profile (But still top 25) program from day 1. And that seems to appeal to him which I get.

[DukieTiger]

Based on recruiting it seems obvious that the staff thinks Proctor will be OAD one way or another. Even if he's not a first round lock I think he'll go.

I see it from the other side - they had him committed in 2023 alongside Foster and McCain. He moved to 2022. They don’t seem to be targeting any other guards in 2023.

Not saying the staff thinks he will stay but I don’t know that you can look at the recruiting and assume that the staff thinks he is OAD.

[scottdude8]

I see it from the other side - they had him committed in 2023 alongside Foster and McCain. He moved to 2022. They don’t seem to be targeting any other guards in 2023.

Not saying the staff thinks he will stay but I don’t know that you can look at the recruiting and assume that the staff thinks he is OAD.

Well, to turn it around once again, when Proctor committed there were immediate rumblings about how he and Foster (and to a lesser extent McCain) could play together… and that was before McCain’s fantastic summer where he’s looked like a legit 5*. Factor in Schutt and Blakes and there really isn’t a need for the staff to recruit a “replacement” for Proctor in 2023.

We’re speculating a ton here in either direction, but I don’t see the lack of new guard targets in 2023 as saying much.

[DukieTiger]

Well, to turn it around once again, when Proctor committed there were immediate rumblings about how he and Foster (and to a lesser extent McCain) could play together… and that was before McCain’s fantastic summer where he’s looked like a legit 5*. Factor in Schutt and Blakes and there really isn’t a need for the staff to recruit a “replacement” for Proctor in 2023.

We’re speculating a ton here in either direction, but I don’t see the lack of new guard targets in 2023 as saying much.

I agree with you, but I was responding to the claim that “based on recruiting” we could get an idea of Proctor’s leaning. Recruiting literally hasn’t changed since Proctor reclassed. That’s my only point. It doesn’t say much in either direction.

[HayYou]

I agree with you, but I was responding to the claim that “based on recruiting” we could get an idea of Proctor’s leaning. Recruiting literally hasn’t changed since Proctor reclassed. That’s my only point. It doesn’t say much in either direction.

In retrospect it seems at least possible, if not likely, that a reclass was always in the offing. Keels and his draft decision were an element of this. But the staff, to me, seemed to be operating as if he were gone and had been doing so since just after the UK game. Certainly, by the start of the new year I think the staff really thought Keels was more likely than not going pro. So, they tried to obtain a possible replacement. Proctor was looking for a way into the 2023 draft. Despite being in the 23 HS class. He was a reclass from day 1. Had Keels returned Proctor'd have reclassed at another school.

[DavidBenAkiva]

In retrospect it seems at least possible, if not likely, that a reclass was always in the offing. Keels and his draft decision were an element of this. But the staff, to me, seemed to be operating as if he were gone and had been doing so since just after the UK game. Certainly, by the start of the new year I think the staff really thought Keels was more likely than not going pro. So, they tried to obtain a possible replacement. Proctor was looking for a way into the 2023 draft. Despite being in the 23 HS class. He was a reclass from day 1. Had Keels returned Proctor'd have reclassed at another school.

Well, this doesn't line up with the statements made by Keels, Scheyer, or anyone that was connected to the program. The staff was all-in on Keels until the last minute and Keels waited until the very last minute to finally decide to go pro. At no point has Proctor ever indicated he would have gone somewhere else. If anyone was affected, it was Grandison that would have gone somewhere else.

[sagegrouse]

In retrospect it seems at least possible, if not likely, that a reclass was always in the offing. Keels and his draft decision were an element of this. But the staff, to me, seemed to be operating as if he were gone and had been doing so since just after the UK game. Certainly, by the start of the new year I think the staff really thought Keels was more likely than not going pro. So, they tried to obtain a possible replacement. Proctor was looking for a way into the 2023 draft. Despite being in the 23 HS class. He was a reclass from day 1. Had Keels returned Proctor'd have reclassed at another school.

All fantasy, IMHO (where the H vanished in the Art Heyman era).

[MyFirstK'sLast]

https://www.si.com/nba/2022/08/23/20...mith-big-board

Jeremy Woo, who is a pretty well-respected NBA Draft Analyst, has released his top 30 for the upcoming draft.

7. Dariq Whitehead
11. Tyrese Proctor (!!!!)
14. Dereck Lively

Filipowski, Mitchell, Roach not listed

[HayYou]

Well, this doesn't line up with the statements made by Keels, Scheyer, or anyone that was connected to the program. The staff was all-in on Keels until the last minute and Keels waited until the very last minute to finally decide to go pro. At no point has Proctor ever indicated he would have gone somewhere else. If anyone was affected, it was Grandison that would have gone somewhere else.

IDK if you are new to this species or whatever but sometimes people aren't completely truthful. Like how a recruit will say that academics are the most important thing and then release a final 5 of sec programs that won't require a single meaningful academic class. That statement about "academics being important" was a lie.

Of course the staff was all in on Keels. Year 2 of Keels is likely to be better than year 1 of a reclassed anyone short of Bron or KD. But they were prepared for the "possibility" that Keels would go pro. I say "possibility" because given that he went pro it was less of a possibility and more of a probability or even a certainty. They didn't want to close the door until they knew for sure. But we had 3 guys across 2 guard positions in the 23 class along with 2 likely returnees at the position. So 5 guys for 2 positions with 4 of them being top 40ish and the 5th being a junior.
.
Publicly the staff said one thing, but I suspect that behind closed doors there were contingency plans. The staff might have known things about Keels's process that weren't publicly known. And were prepared accordingly.

Literally every single thing that could have gone right for Duke in the wake of Keels's decision went right. Either the staff is not merely great but absolutely perfect (including sone things that required luck) or they were quietly laying backup plans to prepare for the worst-case scenario. One outcome relies on luck and the other relies on logic and planning.

Take your pick for which type of planning you'd like our staff to rely upon.