2023 NBA Draft

[JayZee]

Advanced Seminar.

When to take the blame for every failure and simultaneously throw your players under the bus (guest lectures by Roy)

Optional field trip - shopping for putridly colored plaid blazers. (Special guest, Roy)

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Duke could even set up a 1 year coaching/leadership degree. Courses could be

When to yell and when to smile
How to motivate with stories about your Mom
When to throw your players under the bus (guest lectures by Roy)
When to take the blame for every failure (guest lectures by Roy)
The advantages of having others see you sweat (guest lectures by Gary Williams)

I took Theories and Practices of Coaching with Pete Gaudet. He is an incredible person. It was the fall of 1995, right after his disastrous stint replacing K, so his go to line was always “do the opposite of what I did last year.”

I believe Capel was in the class with me so his ROI on that class was quite good. And it made me as better youth soccer coach (and more seriously, better at managing people at work).

[House P]

A 50 year old alt country singer returned to my academically-oriented high school last year to give a concert, which he peppered with commentary related to being an alum who had taken a path of becoming a musician. Talking to the high school guys, he mentioned dropping out of college after a semester and then living in squalor for a decade while his old hs buddies became drs, lawyers, and businessmen.

He’s been successful, as in, he seems to make a middle class living as a full-time musician, and he gets to play a lot of music. I like his stuff, and if you know the alt country genre, you’ll probably know his name. Were his parents happy that he dropped out of Sarah Lawrence, where he’d gotten a full music scholarship? Apparently not. Is he happy with his life? Apparently so.

Rhett Miller of the Old 97s?


As for borderline late second round picks, the landscape has certainly changed with NIL and the is no single path for everyone.

Until more is known about the terms of typical NIL deals, it is hard to say whether college or the G-League is more financially lucrative in the short term, especially if you think you can get a 2 way deal. Exposure is higher with a top college team, but the G-League theoretically puts you a phone call away from a NBA roster and you don't have to (pretend to) go to class.

If your primary goal is to ultimately stick in the NBA, it is hard to know which option is better. There is no reason you can't improve your game in either college (more personal attention?, better coaching?) or the G-League (better competition in practice?, exposure to the NBA game style/rules/refs?).

[dukelifer]

I took Theories and Practices of Coaching with Pete Gaudet. He is an incredible person. It was the fall of 1995, right after his disastrous stint replacing K, so his go to line was always “do the opposite of what I did last year.”

I believe Capel was in the class with me so his ROI on that class was quite good. And it made me as better youth soccer coach (and more seriously, better at managing people at work).

Ah yes- those bygone days when coaches taught. Looks like Capel dusted off his old notes for this season.

[FUBARDoorBuster]

If Ryan wants to play another year, I am certain Duke will have many 1-year programs that interest him.

Does it need to be a one year program, or could a player just be enrolled in a program and take classes until the grass is greener, without graduating.
Or pick another program to finish in one year. For instance didn't a player we all love and respect enroll in the Divinity program during his extra years before COVID? He was an All -ACC academic scholar, (four times) and he finished his grad degree, during his extra year as a Master of Arts in Christian Studies from the Duke Divinity School.

[MChambers]

http://theathletic.com/4156999/2023/...ama-henderson/

Perhaps not surprisingly, the Duke guys have really dropped. Whitehead is the highest at #21, with Lively at #26 and Filipowski #27. It says for scouts the issue with Whitehead is how much weight you put on his high school career and how much on this year at Duke. It also says that opinions on Filipowski are very mixed.

No other Duke players are listed in the first two rounds.

[scottdude8]

http://theathletic.com/4156999/2023/...ama-henderson/

Perhaps not surprisingly, the Duke guys have really dropped. Whitehead is the highest at #21, with Lively at #26 and Filipowski #27. It says for scouts the issue with Whitehead is how much weight you put on his high school career and how much on this year at Duke. It also says that opinions on Filipowski are very mixed.

No other Duke players are listed in the first two rounds.

If the opinions on Filipowski are "mixed", then perhaps the pre-season scuttlebutt that he wanted to be a multi-year guy at Duke comes back into play. As much as I love Kyle and as incredible as he's been for us this year, it's easy to see where there's room for improvement that would really elevate his draft stock, including getting his outside shot consistent and putting more muscle on his frame.

As for Dariq and Dereck, it wouldn't surprise me if they're the type of guys who could really elevate their stock with a big late-season or tournament run. Maybe that'll be the little bit of extra motivation (not that they should need any!) to kick butt the rest of the year.

Despite Tyrese and Mark not being listed on this mock, which tends to be one of the more reliable ones, it wouldn't surprise me if they at least test their draft stock. I think there's a >50% chance that we return at least one of Tyrese, Mark, and Flip... and FWIW I think Jon thinks the same (he mentioned something on one of his recent Duke produced podcasts about expecting returnees from this year's squad). Returning one of those guys, plus (hopefully) Jaylen, Jaden, Christian and Ryan, plus the incoming recruiting class, would be a legit pre-season Top 10 team in my eyes. If we can keep two of those guys, or somehow Jeremy, the ceiling is the roof.

But that's next season. I want to see this squad coalesce and squeeze some Oranges tonight

[arnie]

I think there's a >50% chance that we return at least one of Tyrese, Mark, and Flip... and FWIW I think Jon thinks the same (he mentioned something on one of his recent Duke produced podcasts about expecting returnees from this year's squad). Returning one of those guys, plus (hopefully) Jaylen, Jaden, Christian and Ryan, plus the incoming recruiting class, would be a legit pre-season Top 10 team in my eyes. )

We just did this for the 22-23 season. Roach and Blakes returned, they combined with the Top 1 or 2 recruiting class and we picked up Young & Grandison. Your 23-24 scenario is amazingly similar without a Top 3 recruit entering.

My less optimistic view is borderline Top 25 if we only return one starter. I think we need at least 2 or 3 starting sophomores to be Top 10.

[lotusland]

I absolutely do see flashes of Darin’s ability to create shots and be a point forward or combo guard and his shooting has been a very pleasant surprise. What he hasn’t shown is ability to score in the lane which is pretty important if you are to be more than a 3 & D guy. Is that something that he can display more his sophomore year or would he further expose that weakness? I doubt we’ll find out.

[MChambers]

Brendan Marks, who covers Duke and some no account ACC team based in North Carolina, has a story up about which Duke freshmen will declare for the draft and which will return.

Take it straight from an NBA scout:

“This Duke team is just really tough to evaluate.”

The article is behind a pay wall, of course, but here is the link, in case you have a subscription.

https://theathletic.com/4277878/2023...ampaign=601983

Basically, the article suggests that Filipowski, Mitchell, and Proctor all need to return and show improved offensive skills, but it certainly doesn't suggest that they are locks to return. (I am taking a deep breath and reminding myself that every year somebody leaves who I think is likely to return, and keeping my expectations very low.)

Sounds like Lively is almost certain to declare, not surprisingly, and Whitehead is too, but scouts are a little worried about Whitehead, given how little he has shown so far. They will be watching him carefully in the tournaments, of course.

[dukelifer]

Brendan Marks, who covers Duke and some no account ACC team based in North Carolina, has a story up about which Duke freshmen will declare for the draft and which will return.

Take it straight from an NBA scout:

“This Duke team is just really tough to evaluate.”

The article is behind a pay wall, of course, but here is the link, in case you have a subscription.

https://theathletic.com/4277878/2023...ampaign=601983

Basically, the article suggests that Filipowski, Mitchell, and Proctor all need to return and show improved offensive skills, but it certainly doesn't suggest that they are locks to return. (I am taking a deep breath and reminding myself that every year somebody leaves who I think is likely to return, and keeping my expectations very low.)

Sounds like Lively is almost certain to declare, not surprisingly, and Whitehead is too, but scouts are a little worried about Whitehead, given how little he has shown so far. They will be watching him carefully in the tournaments, of course.

The eye test suggests that Flip, Mitchell and Proctor are not ready to play in the league next year- maybe not in two. But if Flip and Proctor declare- they will likely be drafted in the second round. Not sure about Mitchell. Their choice to decide their futures as pro players.

[azzefkram]

Brendan Marks, who covers Duke and some no account ACC team based in North Carolina, has a story up about which Duke freshmen will declare for the draft and which will return.

Take it straight from an NBA scout:

“This Duke team is just really tough to evaluate.”

The article is behind a pay wall, of course, but here is the link, in case you have a subscription.

https://theathletic.com/4277878/2023...ampaign=601983

Basically, the article suggests that Filipowski, Mitchell, and Proctor all need to return and show improved offensive skills, but it certainly doesn't suggest that they are locks to return. (I am taking a deep breath and reminding myself that every year somebody leaves who I think is likely to return, and keeping my expectations very low.)

Sounds like Lively is almost certain to declare, not surprisingly, and Whitehead is too, but scouts are a little worried about Whitehead, given how little he has shown so far. They will be watching him carefully in the tournaments, of course.

I just finished the article, and it doesn't really break new ground. What was interesting to me was in the comments, someone asked about Jeremy. Marks replied that he sees three options (Stay, Declare, or Transfer). Marks' guess is that it's option 3 (transfer). That would make me quite sad.

[Bluedog]

Brendan Marks, who covers Duke and some no account ACC team based in North Carolina, has a story up about which Duke freshmen will declare for the draft and which will return.

Take it straight from an NBA scout:

“This Duke team is just really tough to evaluate.”

The article is behind a pay wall, of course, but here is the link, in case you have a subscription.

https://theathletic.com/4277878/2023...ampaign=601983

Basically, the article suggests that Filipowski, Mitchell, and Proctor all need to return and show improved offensive skills, but it certainly doesn't suggest that they are locks to return. (I am taking a deep breath and reminding myself that every year somebody leaves who I think is likely to return, and keeping my expectations very low.)

Sounds like Lively is almost certain to declare, not surprisingly, and Whitehead is too, but scouts are a little worried about Whitehead, given how little he has shown so far. They will be watching him carefully in the tournaments, of course.

Is Flip really only shooting 27.6% from 3 this season? I knew he wasn't lighting it on fire, but I had expected him to at least be in the 30s. It's not like he never shoots it from out there. He obviously hit a big one against UNC late.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Brendan Marks, who covers Duke and some no account ACC team based in North Carolina, has a story up about which Duke freshmen will declare for the draft and which will return.

Take it straight from an NBA scout:

“This Duke team is just really tough to evaluate.”

The article is behind a pay wall, of course, but here is the link, in case you have a subscription.

https://theathletic.com/4277878/2023...ampaign=601983

Basically, the article suggests that Filipowski, Mitchell, and Proctor all need to return and show improved offensive skills, but it certainly doesn't suggest that they are locks to return. (I am taking a deep breath and reminding myself that every year somebody leaves who I think is likely to return, and keeping my expectations very low.)

Sounds like Lively is almost certain to declare, not surprisingly, and Whitehead is too, but scouts are a little worried about Whitehead, given how little he has shown so far. They will be watching him carefully in the tournaments, of course.

Thanks for the summary.

As an old-fashioned basketball fan who still thinks someone like Zach Edey should be a top pick, my opinion is likely worthless, but Proctor's recent play seems like it would make him a stronger candidate. He has good size for a point guard, plays excellent defense, shows good ball handling and leadership, and is young (he turns 19 on April 1). His offense could clearly use some work but given the strong preference from many NBA teams to take speculative players, he has enough boxes checked already that he would seem to be exactly what they want.

Not that I want him to go. I would love to have him (and all the others) back next year. As excited as I am about the incoming freshmen, I always prefer a known quantity, and I miss the old days of getting to know players more.

[Bluegrassdevil1]

I just finished the article, and it doesn't really break new ground. What was interesting to me was in the comments, someone asked about Jeremy. Marks replied that he sees three options (Stay, Declare, or Transfer). Marks' guess is that it's option 3 (transfer). That would make me quite sad.

Roach transfers out, so Love can transfer in. Talk about synergy!

In all seriousness... that would also make me quite sad. I get it; it's understandable. But, that would be a bummer.

[SlapTheFloor]

Why would he transfer? What would another program offer that he doesn't have here?

[scottdude8]

Brendan Marks, who covers Duke and some no account ACC team based in North Carolina, has a story up about which Duke freshmen will declare for the draft and which will return.

Take it straight from an NBA scout:

“This Duke team is just really tough to evaluate.”

The article is behind a pay wall, of course, but here is the link, in case you have a subscription.

https://theathletic.com/4277878/2023...ampaign=601983

Basically, the article suggests that Filipowski, Mitchell, and Proctor all need to return and show improved offensive skills, but it certainly doesn't suggest that they are locks to return. (I am taking a deep breath and reminding myself that every year somebody leaves who I think is likely to return, and keeping my expectations very low.)

Sounds like Lively is almost certain to declare, not surprisingly, and Whitehead is too, but scouts are a little worried about Whitehead, given how little he has shown so far. They will be watching him carefully in the tournaments, of course.

As others have said, this vibes with our general consensus here on the board, which is nice to see. I’m entering tournament time with the mindset of, if we end up losing all of Kyle/Mark/Tyrese, that probably means we’ve had a heck of a March. We could still have a really successful month if one or two of those guys play well enough to leave.

If one of the three returns next year, and there’s no other unexpected attrition, we’re easily a Top 20 preseason team with a high ceiling. If 2 or more return, that moves to Top 10 with the potential for more depending on how March goes. Either way, I have to like how Jon has handled his first recruiting class. Now we’ll see whether we can take the next step in program building through the use of NIL.

[DavidBenAkiva]

There wasn't any new info the article, but it was interesting to read.

In some ways, this crop of freshmen is sort of a perfect storm for Coach Scheyer. I feel like Scheyer needs to thread the needle with his recruiting. Duke has been selling itself as the best path to the NBA. That's what the Brotherhood thing is all about, that Duke has this group of guys - Jayson Tatum, Zion Williamson, Paolo Banchero, and many others - that are destined for NBA stardom. Come to Duke, and you can join The Brotherhood! On the other hand, Scheyer has noted that he needs continuity to build a better and more enduring team culture. But the rub is that very few upperclassmen get drafted by the NBA these days. It's a lot of freshmen and more international guys of late. How do you get the multi-year guys that also can join the Brotherhood? That is threading the needle.

Filipowski, I think, is playing out of position for his NBA prospects. He is certainly killing it as a college 4. But the questions remain about his ability to defend in space. And he's not shooting it well enough to be a stretch 4 right now. The shot form looks great and he's a deadly free throw shooter. It looks like he will become a great shooter. But then the questions about his fit as a 4 in the NBA give you pause. I think the best fit for him is as a stretch 5. He's not a rim protector or lob threat, but he doesn't have to be if he can splash 3s. They mentioned Kelly Olynk as an archetype. I could also see Filipowski being a sort of Brook Lopez type. Lopez has been an incredible defensive presence later in his NBA career. He is probably a little bigger and longer than Filipowski and does offer more rim protection. But I think Filipowski does a lot of similar stuff, walling up when he has to, grabbing boards, and just being in a good position down low. Lopez isn't the quickest lateral player and doesn't have the burst off the floor of Robert Williams of the Celtics. But he just knows how to contest shots without fouling. I think Flip could be a sort of poor-mans Lopez if he plays in drop coverage and every bit as good on offense when his shot comes around.

Mitchell is sort of the same thing, playing out of position. He's not going to be an NBA wing. He's a forward, a slasher that hits the occasional open corner jumper. But with two bigs at Duke the slow pace of play, he hasn't shown his offensive game. I've been impressed with how Mitchell picks his spots and always seems to make a good play. He can make a mid-range jumper off the dribble and gets to the rim pretty well. There are often a lot of bodies down low, though, so he doesn't have a lot of opportunities to get to the rim. Playing a year where Filipowski is the center and operating a true 5-out offense could allow Mitchell to be a lot more effective. He certainly has the size, length, and quickness to play in the NBA. It's like he just needs to show more. It would help if he could put a little more arc on his jumper, too, as long as he doesn't completely break it.

Proctor seems like the kind of player that could have the biggest sophomore jump. He's already a better 3-point shooter now than he was early in the year. He is playing the position he might play in the NBA, point guard. He's shown that he can shut down other guards on defense, both on- and off-ball. Like Mitchell, he seems to need to show more. Show the NBA that he can get 20+points more often. Show teams that he can run a high-octane offense. Show teams that he can create his own shot. Proctor reminds me so much of Tre Jones as a sophomore in mentality. He just hasn't put up the numbers. With him being 6'5", I think he might get drafted higher than Jones was.

If 2 or all 3 of those guys come back, they could all be potential 1st round draft picks in 2024. That proves the model - you can be a multi-year guy at Duke and still be part of the Brotherhood. It's a tough thing to do since so few guys really do make the leap from freshmen role player to sophomore stud. To have 3 in one class would be amazing.

[BigZ]

I thought NIL would have guys on the bobble staying but didn't last year lets see if it does this year.

[scottdude8]

I just finished the article, and it doesn't really break new ground. What was interesting to me was in the comments, someone asked about Jeremy. Marks replied that he sees three options (Stay, Declare, or Transfer). Marks' guess is that it's option 3 (transfer). That would make me quite sad.

I missed that, so thanks for highlighting. This would be quite sad, especially since Jeremy could go down as a Duke legend that bridged the K/Scheyer eras. But one has to think that if he was going to transfer, the time to do so would’ve been last summer, not this summer, right? If NIL is the deciding factor, I’m sure Rachel Baker can work some magic. If it’s NBA exposure, you aren’t going to get more of that than playing at Duke. And I can’t imagine a guy as confident as Jeremy is going to be “scared” of losing PT to the incoming frosh class.

Now, there’s always the possibility that a young man just wants to “move on” and get another experience. If that happens, I hope we can all respect that decision. But I think we’re a long way from that, and I get the sense that Marks’ statement there really was a guess (as opposed to the rest of the article that was informed by actual NBA scouts).