2023 NBA Draft

[DavidBenAkiva]

Is it premature to start wondering whether Lively is not a OAD? Other than length, what is the NBA seeing in him right now? He may actually be following the Mark Williams route closer than we think.

There is understandably more patience to see Whitehead emerge, but what if he doesn't? If he does not establish an outside shooting ability, and an okay ability to drive, aren't players like that a dime a dozen at this point in college?

Ironically only Flip seems like the sure fire OAD, after a summer in which nobody expected that.

If Dereck Lively is on the Mark Williams path, then we are going to see a very different kind of player over the final 2 months of the season. Through his first 10 games, Williams averaged 1.9 pts/2.4 rebs/0.4 blks. Like Williams, Lively was also dealing with an injury at the start of his freshman season.

Let's check in on Dereck after the exam break and then again after January. He could look like a totally different player by then. The same goes for Whitehead.

[CDu]

Is it premature to start wondering whether Lively is not a OAD? Other than length, what is the NBA seeing in him right now? He may actually be following the Mark Williams route closer than we think.

Worth noting that, had COVID not hit and had Williams not had a family tie to the Duke program, it's entirely possible that Williams himself could have been one-and-done. But getting robbed of the rest of our postseason - when Williams was really starting to emerge - killed his chances.

There is understandably more patience to see Whitehead emerge, but what if he doesn't? If he does not establish an outside shooting ability, and an okay ability to drive, aren't players like that a dime a dozen at this point in college?

It's a legitimate question. I think he'll be a double-digit scorer for us, but the question is whether he's more like Cam Reddish, more like Harrison Barnes, or more like RJ Barrett. It's not a given that he'll become an absolute stud.

Ironically only Flip seems like the sure fire OAD, after a summer in which nobody expected that.

Yeah, he looked so bad in the all star games and in the limited summer footage (and didn't play well in the CTC scrimmage or the Houston secret scrimmage either). And then here he is averaging 15 and 9. So you never know.

That said, regardless of how the season plays out, I'd expect Whitehead and Lively to go pro. And if things continue on their current course, I'd expect Filipowski to join them.

[dukelifer]

Worth noting that, had COVID not hit and had Williams not had a family tie to the Duke program, it's entirely possible that Williams himself could have been one-and-done. But getting robbed of the rest of our postseason - when Williams was really starting to emerge - killed his chances.



It's a legitimate question. I think he'll be a double-digit scorer for us, but the question is whether he's more like Cam Reddish, more like Harrison Barnes, or more like RJ Barrett. It's not a given that he'll become an absolute stud.



Yeah, he looked so bad in the all star games and in the limited summer footage (and didn't play well in the CTC scrimmage or the Houston secret scrimmage either). And then here he is averaging 15 and 9. So you never know.

That said, regardless of how the season plays out, I'd expect Whitehead and Lively to go pro. And if things continue on their current course, I'd expect Filipowski to join them.

Yes- they will go pro on potential alone. Lively has to get stronger and develop some shot other than a put back.

[kAzE]

Yes- they will go pro on potential alone. Lively has to get stronger and develop some shot other than a put back.

The fact that he even attempted 2 threes against Purdue in a championship game I think is a positive, even if he didn't make either attempt. It tells me that he's at least hit a few in practice. No one can accuse him of being Ben Simmons.

I selfishly do hope that either he or Flip comes back for another season, because we're going to be short on centers next year unless we get one through the transfer portal.

[CDu]

The fact that he even attempted 2 threes against Purdue in a championship game I think is a positive, even if he didn't make either attempt. It tells me that he's at least hit a few in practice. No one can accuse him of being Ben Simmons.

I selfishly do hope that either he or Flip comes back for another season, because we're going to be short on centers next year unless we get one through the transfer portal.

Yeah, I HOPE that Lively has been making them in practice, because... yikes, those attempts looked awful.

Like you, I hope one of the two returns. I don't think it's looking very likely though. Unless Filipowski regresses (he hasn't shot well against P6 schools, has scored on volume and FTs so far against better comp) or decides to forego the draft despite a good season, it's hard to see either returning.

Gotta hope for one of those two things, or that Reeves makes a big jump, or that we find someone in the portal.

[simplyluvin]

Yes- they will go pro on potential alone. Lively has to get stronger and develop some shot other than a put back.

Yeah, Lively is almost assuredly gone after this season. Miracles do happen, but I can't see the #1 recruit - if even largely by default - come and treat Durham as more of a 1-year residence. Plus, we're Duke where the OAD pressures seem to create greater momentum to leave. Same with Whitehead.

The door could slightly be ajar for Flip to come back, but NBA teams will really find a lot of appeal with his size and shooting. Proctor definitely came to Duke for a 1-year run.

The real question is if Mitchell and Roach stay. We definitely recruited heavy at the forward position for next year, and I don't think we knew what his mindset was coming to college. Jeremy could stay his senior year and take a Quinn Cook-like role and give way to Caleb Foster, but we also have Jared Mccain coming in who seems to be a bonafide scorer. So does Jeremy take a backseat role for his senior year? Does he transfer?

A lot of season left for this to shake out.

[JayZee]

The fact that he even attempted 2 threes against Purdue in a championship game I think is a positive, even if he didn't make either attempt. It tells me that he's at least hit a few in practice. No one can accuse him of being Ben Simmons.

I selfishly do hope that either he or Flip comes back for another season, because we're going to be short on centers next year unless we get one through the transfer portal.

I was going to reply that Flip really doesn't play center. But then I checked on good ol' KenPom who has him playing center for 70% of our minutes. That didn't make sense to me, so I looked a little closer. Kyle has never been out there without either Ryan or Dereck on the court. In the end, I think of Kyle as a stretch 4 much more than a stretch 5.

[CDu]

I was going to reply that Flip really doesn't play center. But then I checked on good ol' KenPom who has him playing center for 70% of our minutes. That didn't make sense to me, so I looked a little closer. Kyle has never been out there without either Ryan or Dereck on the court. In the end, I think of Kyle as a stretch 4 much more than a stretch 5.

Yeah, KenPom is not correct here. I think the error is that KenPom is listing Young as a PF when the two share the court, simply because Filipowski is taller. But obviously Young is playing C whenever he's on the court.

I do believe Filipowski has played SOME center (including in the Purdue game with Mitchell at PF). But he definitely has not played 70% of his time at C.

[dukelifer]

Yeah, I HOPE that Lively has been making them in practice, because... yikes, those attempts looked awful.

Like you, I hope one of the two returns. I don't think it's looking very likely though. Unless Filipowski regresses (he hasn't shot well against P6 schools, has scored on volume and FTs so far against better comp) or decides to forego the draft despite a good season, it's hard to see either returning.

Gotta hope for one of those two things, or that Reeves makes a big jump, or that we find someone in the portal.

I think Reeves has a lot of Williams in him and could have more of an offensive game than Lively. I suspect he will develop rapidly if given a chance.

[CDu]

I think Reeves has a lot of Williams in him and could have more of an offensive game than Lively. I suspect he will develop rapidly if given a chance.

Fingers crossed, as there is a real possibility that he'll be the guy (maybe along with Ryan Young).

[UrinalCake]

NBA teams put almost zero value in a center having back to the basket post moves to create scores. All they care about is defense and having a respectable three. Even though Lively was physically overwhelmed he still did show some good defensive awareness, had that nice recovery block and I noticed a few other times that he helped off his man to cut off another driving player and then recovered back. So the pieces are there. I don't think it's the physical injury that is still hampering him, it's all the missed practice time from being out. Between him, Whitehead, Proctor arriving late, and Grandison being injured over the summer, the team has only really been fully together for a short amount of time.

Those threes that he took were ugly. I remember the scouting report on him out of high school was that he had a decent shot that defenses would have to honor, and let's hope that's the case once he gets more comfortable.

[UrinalCake]

Fingers crossed, as there is a real possibility that he'll be the guy (maybe along with Ryan Young).

I do think Ryan Young is planning to come back for another season (can't remember where I heard it though) and between him and Reeves plus Sean Stewart being able to play small ball 5 we should be set. Reeves did well in that one defensive possession we played him right before the half - forced a miss and got the rebound.

[SkyBrickey]

I do think Ryan Young is planning to come back for another season (can't remember where I heard it though) and between him and Reeves plus Sean Stewart being able to play small ball 5 we should be set. Reeves did well in that one defensive possession we played him right before the half - forced a miss and got the rebound.

Reading through the thread I was just about to type this same comment. Looks like this will be our three headed Center monster for next season.

Reeves did look so shockingly good at CTC - very long, very agile, good hands. I also remember seeing him block a Lively jumper in a preseason scrimmage video making me say, wait who’s that kid?? I like the idea of him developing into possibly a multi year starter for us.

I’d love to see more of him this season but we might be keeping him hidden away from NBA scouts!

I’m also thinking there’s a chance Mark Mitchell could return since he’s not on any draft boards. With a year of experience and strength training behind him, he could be a real star for us next season.

[SkyBrickey]

This thread has me really rethinking the whole summer rumor mill and us backing off recruiting JP Estrella or another ranked center. The main rumor was that Flip could be showing he’s not a OAD. That now seems unlikely based on what we’ve seen of Flip.

Maybe instead it was Reeves matching up really well against Lively, the #1 player in the class. That would make a lot more sense now… Not to start a new rumor, but it’s even possible that Jon didn’t play Reeves while Lively was out with his injury because he didn’t want to create a center controversy, yet he had no issue burning the redshirt because he knows the NBA will be after Reeves. Hmmmm….

[DukieInBrasil]

I think Reeves has a lot of Williams in him and could have more of an offensive game than Lively. I suspect he will develop rapidly if given a chance.

Reeves has already shown more offensive game than Lively, in that he attempts shots that aren't dunks. Lively did attempt those 2 3s vs Purdue but i'm not counting those b/c they were such horrible looking shots that they should not be considered an attempt at offensive game.

I do think Ryan Young is planning to come back for another season (can't remember where I heard it though) and between him and Reeves plus Sean Stewart being able to play small ball 5 we should be set. Reeves did well in that one defensive possession we played him right before the half - forced a miss and got the rebound.

I clearly remember Reeves getting that rebound at the end of the 1st half, but the ESPN box score does not credit Reeves with any rebounds.

[sagegrouse]

I clearly remember Reeves getting that rebound at the end of the 1st half, but the ESPN box score does not credit Reeves with any rebounds.

Under NIL, maybe some of the dough goes to the scorekeeper to slant rebounds and assists toward the well-paid players. Heck, in the World Cup the announcers tried to give the 1st Portugal goal to the fabulously wealthy Ronaldo even though it was Fernandes'.

[CDu]

I clearly remember Reeves getting that rebound at the end of the 1st half, but the ESPN box score does not credit Reeves with any rebounds.

For some reason the scorekeeper credited that rebound to Blakes: https://goduke.com/boxscore.aspx?path=mbball&id=20706 (go to the "play by play" tab)

But Reeves was definitely the one who got that rebound.

[Duke79UNLV77]

Yeah, Lively is almost assuredly gone after this season. Miracles do happen, but I can't see the #1 recruit - if even largely by default - come and treat Durham as more of a 1-year residence. Plus, we're Duke where the OAD pressures seem to create greater momentum to leave. Same with Whitehead.

Probably right, but you probably also didn't see the #1 recruit averaging 2.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks on 56% shooting (even though all but 2 shots have been dunks or within a couple of feet of the rim) and 16% FT shooting. So far, even Harry Giles diminished by injuries showed much more as a freshman. I don't mean to be harsh. Lively appears to be trying hard and supporting his teammates. He just has a lot of developing to do.

Unless he shows significantly more, he has to be falling quite a bit on the draft boards. If he becomes not even a safe first rounder, another year of development to go with his raw length could move him way up in the draft, and he wouldn't be hurting with NIL money. It says a lot about the state of the college game when even a player with Lively's currents stats is very likely gone and anyone who doesn't go pro is even money to be playing for another school next year.

[sagegrouse]

Probably right, but you probably also didn't see the #1 recruit averaging 2.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks on 56% shooting (even though all but 2 shots have been dunks or within a couple of feet of the rim) and 16% FT shooting. So far, even Harry Giles diminished by injuries showed much more as a freshman. I don't mean to be harsh. Lively appears to be trying hard and supporting his teammates. He just has a lot of developing to do.

Unless he shows significantly more, he has to be falling quite a bit on the draft boards. If he becomes not even a safe first rounder, another year of development to go with his raw length could move him way up in the draft, and he wouldn't be hurting with NIL money. It says a lot about the state of the college game when even a player with Lively's currents stats is very likely gone and anyone who doesn't go pro is even money to be playing for another school next year.

He's a freshman who's been injured. Why do you feel it necessary to land on him with both feet?

BTW, as you know, this is a public Duke fan board, and Duke player and coaches are gonna be defended.

[kshepinthehouse]

He's a freshman who's been injured. Why do you feel it necessary to land on him with both feet?

BTW, as you know, this is a public Duke fan board, and Duke player and coaches are gonna be defended.

I didn’t think he said anything that bad and tried to use facts to justify his position. I know some people have a hard time digesting the truth on here. But many of us expected more from the #1 recruit in the nation. I would think that includes Lively himself, Lively’s teammates, and the coaching staff.