2023 NBA Draft

[Kedsy]

I didn’t think he said anything that bad and tried to use facts to justify his position. I know some people have a hard time digesting the truth on here. But many of us expected more from the #1 recruit in the nation. I would think that includes Lively himself, Lively’s teammates, and the coaching staff.

According to RSCI, Lively was only the #2 recruit in the nation.

[Duke79UNLV77]

He's a freshman who's been injured. Why do you feel it necessary to land on him with both feet?

BTW, as you know, this is a public Duke fan board, and Duke player and coaches are gonna be defended.

I don't view it that way. I would be disappointed in him if he should be performing much better but had a questionable attitude, like Jalen Johnson. As I stated, I think he's trying hard and has shown positive emotion and support for his teammates. He's blessed with being really tall and really long. It seems some scouts got ahead of their skis in rating him, and I think it would be unfair to him to expect him to be dominant at this stage in his career. I just think it would be reasonable to reassess his NBA draft status and that the better decision would be to develop for 2 years in college, while getting 2 years of education and NIL money. Unfortunately, I think expectations can pressure some guys to declare for the NBA earlier than they should.

[sagegrouse]

I don't view it that way. I would be disappointed in him if he should be performing much better but had a questionable attitude, like Jalen Johnson. As I stated, I think he's trying hard and has shown positive emotion and support for his teammates. He's blessed with being really tall and really long. It seems some scouts got ahead of their skis in rating him, and I think it would be unfair to him to expect him to be dominant at this stage in his career. I just think it would be reasonable to reassess his NBA draft status and that the better decision would be to develop for 2 years in college, while getting 2 years of education and NIL money. Unfortunately, I think expectations can pressure some guys to declare for the NBA earlier than they should.

No problem -- While I think we should have balanced critique of Duke players on our public board, your post was fine. I reacted too strongly.

[Phredd3]

I've also been surprised at Lively's game and his complete lack of offense for a recruit rated #1 (or #2) in his class. But I wonder if the folks dissing his defense are watching the same guy I am. He is actually a pretty impressive force on the defensive end, in my untrained opinion. People here have been praising Flip's ability to stay in front of smaller players, but Lively is even better than Flip at that. I don't think I've seen a better help-and-recover defender playing center at Duke, save for some small-ball lineups where a natural forward was playing the center position. He has more problems with one-on-one defense against bigger guys, simply because he's got a slender frame, but even there, it seems to me he holds his own. He has been foul prone, but that's going to happen with a freshman center.

I do wonder, though, if he will really generate serious NBA interest without showing any kind of shot, and without being a lockdown one-on-one guy. He airballed an eight-footer in at least one game, and his three-point tries this year have not been the kind that force other teams to respect you out there. His showing against Edey was...only OK, and he's shown similar tendencies against other beefy guys. In the NBA, they are nearly all beefy.

There's a decent chance he improves, but my view is that the NBA is going to need to see some of that now, or he's going to get picked in the low first/early second round, tops. He works hard, so let's hope the improvements come this year, both for his draft stock and for Duke's season.

[Steven43]

No problem -- While I think we should have balanced critique of Duke players on our public board, your post was fine. I reacted too strongly.

Classy post. 👍

[dukelifer]

I've also been surprised at Lively's game and his complete lack of offense for a recruit rated #1 (or #2) in his class. But I wonder if the folks dissing his defense are watching the same guy I am. He is actually a pretty impressive force on the defensive end, in my untrained opinion. People here have been praising Flip's ability to stay in front of smaller players, but Lively is even better than Flip at that. I don't think I've seen a better help-and-recover defender playing center at Duke, save for some small-ball lineups where a natural forward was playing the center position. He has more problems with one-on-one defense against bigger guys, simply because he's got a slender frame, but even there, it seems to me he holds his own. He has been foul prone, but that's going to happen with a freshman center.

I do wonder, though, if he will really generate serious NBA interest without showing any kind of shot, and without being a lockdown one-on-one guy. He airballed an eight-footer in at least one game, and his three-point tries this year have not been the kind that force other teams to respect you out there. His showing against Edey was...only OK, and he's shown similar tendencies against other beefy guys. In the NBA, they are nearly all beefy.

There's a decent chance he improves, but my view is that the NBA is going to need to see some of that now, or he's going to get picked in the low first/early second round, tops. He works hard, so let's hope the improvements come this year, both for his draft stock and for Duke's season.

While I have been critical- it is clear that Lively is engaged and is unselfish. He looks to be a good teammate. I think he was lifted to his ranking based on his size and potential, but at this point he is a project. His D can be good but experienced and beefier players can get him into foul trouble by simply being patient. It is unfortunate that Lively will likely feel the need to go pro when his game is so raw. But he will make some money and get a shot because of his potential and anything can happen. We should temper our expectations that his potential will be realized this season.

[DukieInBrasil]

While I have been critical- it is clear that Lively is engaged and is unselfish. He looks to be a good teammate. I think he was lifted to his ranking based on his size and potential, but at this point he is a project. His D can be good but experienced and beefier players can get him into foul trouble by simply being patient. It is unfortunate that Lively will likely feel the need to go pro when his game is so raw. But he will make some money and get a shot because of his potential and anything can happen. We should temper our expectations that his potential will be realized this season.

I don't pretend to be an expert on the subjects of the NBA draft nor the NIL's impact on college hoops, but it keeps getting repeated so maybe there's more than a couple of grains of truth to it: NIL money might make for longer retention times in college for guys whose draft status is marginal relative to expectations. I assume that DL is making some money off NIL this year, and if he continues to show no offensive game but continues improving his defensive play, he might decide that another year at Duke might make financial sense.
Kedsy, Jason Evans and CDu have all crunched the numbers on this better than i can explain it but If DL gets feedback at the end of the year that he's a late 1st round or 2nd round selection and that improvement on X Y and Z will lift him to lottery or otherwise enhance his draft position, it would make sense to return to work on that improvement b/c the difference in earning potential based on the salary structures for rookie contracts is several million dollars even between just a few draft positions. NIL money makes waiting that extra year without boucoup big bucks a little easier b/c rather than no money at all while waiting for expected fuutre returns, NIL dollars can be non-insignificant.
However, if DL gets feedback that he's a guaranteed lottery pick there's no reason for him to stay. Time will tell.

[simplyluvin]

I don't pretend to be an expert on the subjects of the NBA draft nor the NIL's impact on college hoops, but it keeps getting repeated so maybe there's more than a couple of grains of truth to it: NIL money might make for longer retention times in college for guys whose draft status is marginal relative to expectations. I assume that DL is making some money off NIL this year, and if he continues to show no offensive game but continues improving his defensive play, he might decide that another year at Duke might make financial sense.
Kedsy, Jason Evans and CDu have all crunched the numbers on this better than i can explain it but If DL gets feedback at the end of the year that he's a late 1st round or 2nd round selection and that improvement on X Y and Z will lift him to lottery or otherwise enhance his draft position, it would make sense to return to work on that improvement b/c the difference in earning potential based on the salary structures for rookie contracts is several million dollars even between just a few draft positions. NIL money makes waiting that extra year without boucoup big bucks a little easier b/c rather than no money at all while waiting for expected fuutre returns, NIL dollars can be non-insignificant.
However, if DL gets feedback that he's a guaranteed lottery pick there's no reason for him to stay. Time will tell.

You're likely right in that NIL dollars are not insignificant, and kudos to Coach Scheyer for bringing on Rachel Baker to cultivate NIL potential for our players and the Duke brand. But I just don't see a plausible scenario in which Dereck comes back. While his stock has dropped pretty significantly of late (trending towards the back-end of the first round based on my scan of about a half-dozen draft boards), even if his grade is mid-2nd round, it still probably makes financial sense for him to go. No idea how much NIL money he makes, but my guess is it would have to be in excess of $1M/yr to make it lucrative to stay in college. Add the fact that these days 2nd rounders get guaranteed contracts and that there is not a lot of precedent for a consensus #1 or #2 recruit out of HS returning for his sophomore, and the odds are stacked that he's gone. Might be unfair comps, but I was thinking about #1/#2 recruits that somewhat disappointed in college (at least statistically), and I could only think of Nerlens Noel or Skal Labissiere, who both happen to be bigs, but both still went in the first round (Noel as a lottery pick).

It's really early in the season and Dereck is still rounding into shape, so let's see if he plays back into lottery potential, but Lively, Whitehead, and Proctor are surefire OADs.

[SkyBrickey]

While I have been critical- it is clear that Lively is engaged and is unselfish. He looks to be a good teammate. I think he was lifted to his ranking based on his size and potential, but at this point he is a project. His D can be good but experienced and beefier players can get him into foul trouble by simply being patient. It is unfortunate that Lively will likely feel the need to go pro when his game is so raw. But he will make some money and get a shot because of his potential and anything can happen. We should temper our expectations that his potential will be realized this season.

Lively is experiencing that tough freshman big man adjustment and is even further behind because of the injury. I fully expect him to be on the Mark Williams trajectory and be a real force by Feb, Mar.

What will he show us on the offensive end? No idea beyond 8-10 ppg on lobs and putbacks. But I think he will be a great defensive player and hopefully a solid enough rebounder.

We just need to have patience. The fact that Coach is already starting him over Young tells me Coach is confident he is going to be a lot more productive with more playing time.

[dukelion]

Interesting initial draft assessment of our guys.

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticl...son-198936523/

[sagegrouse]

Interesting initial draft assessment of our guys.

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticl...son-198936523/

Spoiler -- out guys are 23, 24 and 25.

[CDu]

Spoiler -- out guys are 23, 24 and 25.

And 27. But none are Dereck Lively.

That said, I doubt this winds up being correct.

[MChambers]

Spoiler -- out guys are 23, 24 and 25.

Filipowski, Proctor, and Whitehead, in that order, and then Mitchell at 27. Lively doesn't appear in the top 30.

I'd be gobsmacked if Whitehead isn't in the top 15 and Lively isn't in the top 30.

Do the authors of this mock draft know what they are doing?

[CDu]

Filipowski, Proctor, and Whitehead, in that order, and then Mitchell at 27. Lively doesn't appear in the top 30.

I'd be gobsmacked if Whitehead isn't in the top 15 and Lively isn't in the top 30.

Do the authors of this mock draft know what they are doing?

Yeah, it feels like a weird combination of "based on performance to date" and "projection." But not a seemingly very accurate assessment of either, in my book: on college performance to date, none of Proctor, Whitehead, and Lively should be on draft boards. If it's based on projection, Whitehead should be higher and Lively should easily be on the list.

[SkyBrickey]

They may have no idea Whitehead and Lively have been injured and are just scouting their stat line. 😂 No way Whitehead is not a top 15 pick.

[CDu]

They may have no idea Whitehead and Lively have been injured and are just scouting their stat line. 😂 No way Whitehead is not a top 15 pick.

Travis Branham is definitely aware that those guys were injured (he alludes to as much in the article). That said, it's still a really weird list. Either you acknowledge that the injuries make any data so far moot (and thus default back to your prior assessment) or you base it on the data as is (in which case none of the 3 struggling freshmen should be on the list, and Filipowski should probably be higher).

The most likely scenario (since it is 247) is it's just a fluff piece intended to generate clicks rather than a truly accurate assessment.

It sort of feels like the inverse of how draftniks latched on to Keels' awesome first game and never appropriately adjusted as he struggled thereafter. We've got so little data (less than 70 minutes for Whitehead!) and the draftniks are reacting wildly onto initial data points.

Hopefully Whitehead and Lively start showing their value soon. I feel like Lively has such a nice floor projection (his mobility and length alone will make him a 1st round pick) but also a relatively low ceiling (his lack of offensive game makes it hard for him to get into the top-5). You can pretty safely see him as a shockblocking, rim-running center once his body finishes filling out, even if he never develops from there. That would warrant a mid-1st draft pick. With Whitehead, the competition is a little more fierce (there are a LOT of good wings out there), but he also has shown enough at the high school level that you would expect his play to get a lot better once he's back to full speed.

[brevity]

Adam Spinella has made a follow up video that does the whole 2023 NBA Draft, picks 1-60.

The lottery picks (including #3 Dariq Whitehead and #8 Dereck Lively) stay the same. Other ACC selections:

11. Baba Miller, FSU
17. Terquavion Smith, NCSU
20. Tyrese Proctor, Duke
25. Judah Mintz, Syracuse
28. Kyle Filipowski, Duke
42. Caleb Love, UNC

Adam Spinella updated his mock draft yesterday. Here is the Version 1.1 video:



Whitehead and Lively each take a hit for playing at less than 100 percent, while still-inactive players like Cam Whitmore and Nick Smith get the benefit of the doubt (moving up or staying put) because there's no new information.

10. Dariq Whitehead (down from #3)
13. Dereck Lively II (down from #8)
19. Kyle Filipowski (up from #28)
23. Tyrese Proctor (down from #20)

After his stellar 13-for-36 shooting performance against Alabama, Caleb Love slipped from #42 to #55.

[kshepinthehouse]

Filipowski, Proctor, and Whitehead, in that order, and then Mitchell at 27. Lively doesn't appear in the top 30.

I'd be gobsmacked if Whitehead isn't in the top 15 and Lively isn't in the top 30.

Do the authors of this mock draft know what they are doing?

Mitchell won’t be a first rounder

[JasonEvans]

Mitchell won’t be a first rounder

Yeah, I am inclined to agree with this. Mark's best games have largely been against teams where his superior athleticism allowed him to overwhelm opposing forward. His performances lately against P5 teams from Oregon St, Purdue, and Ohio State have been quite poor. Obviously, there is plenty of time for him to improve and show well in ACC play (and against Iowa) but I suspect he is going to see his playing time take a dip as Whitehead returns to form in coming weeks. I have a hard time seeing him getting first-round money from a NBA team.

That said, I won't be surprised if he decides to turn pro regardless of what his NBA stock may be. Hard to know what is in his head and if he wants to go, he's gonna go.

It is also worth noting that the arrival of Mgbako, Power, and Stewart next season would make for an exceedingly crowded group of forwards if Mitchell returned to the program (especially if Flip maybe returns).

[mr. synellinden]

Despite not putting much stock in some of these sites, I found it very surprising that NBADraft.net has only one Duke player in its projected 2023 draft ...




... Tyrese Proctor (16)


And it has six Duke players in the 2024 first round - in this order:

Mgbako
Whitehead
Mitchell
Filipowski
McCain
Lively


Not very likely but would certainly make for a loaded team next year.