2022 NBA Summer League

[MartyClark]

Is there a reason Stanley wasn't playing in the Summer League? It would be extremely beneficial for him to state the obvious.

I don't understand. What is "the obvious"?

[heyman25]

Maybe they really didn't like school, and preferred spending all their time getting paid to work on their game rather than having to spend 9 months of the year focusing on schoolwork in addition to getting to play for free. For all but Steward and Keels, the option to get paid to play wasn't available outside of going pro. And it's unclear how much either Keels or Steward would have made in NIL given that they weren't stars as freshmen and there were big-time recruits coming in behind them.

Duval was a defense and pass-first PG who couldn't shoot. But he was a top-5 recruit and a one-and-done from the start.

Stanley was a 20-year-old freshman so he struck while his "upside" was still high, and got drafted.

Steward and Keels chose to focus on their pro dreams rather than return to school.

College isn't for everyone, and sometimes guys are just done with that and ready to move on.

Keels may have done Duke a favor by moving on. He is not that great a shooter or passer.

[Daddylawman]

I mentioned earlier this week that former NC State player Dereon Seabron has a two-way contract with New Orleans. They should consider giving the other one to FSU's John Butler Jr, who had 25 points by hitting all 9 of his field goals, including 6 three-pointers. Not bad for a 7-foot-1 player who went undrafted.

Or they could hire our very own Jason Evans (from our mock draft)

44. Atlanta - JasonEvans ----> Jon Butler, Florida State

[DukieInBrasil]

That isn't what Trevor said in his public statements, but OK. Maybe that was all just puffery to keep the media happy. From what I see, Trevor has a good long way to go before he is NBA ready. The good news is that he is young enough to still make noticeable improvements. I'm honestly not that optimistic about his NBA future, but I hope he can find what he needs to make a good living at what he loves to do, whether that's in the NBA or elsewhere.

I think it would be a mistake to write someone off as an NBA prospect based on a handful of summer league games. Maybe that performance speaks to the player’s current NBA readiness, but many can and do improve. Trevor Keels has a long time to get better. Maybe he will, maybe he won’t, but it’s really problematic to draw conclusions from one summer league.

this comment is not intended to praise or bash these 2 posts in particular, just that they were the last 2 re: Trevor, and kind of span the spectrum.
In my view, i think Matches is about right: TK is not NBA-ready right now, even though he may play in a few or even many games this coming season. Phredd is right to point out that he's young enough to make noticeable improvements, and from my vantage point as someone completely unqualified to offer such views, TK needs to do 2 things that are totally do-able: become an above-average 3pt shooter and become a good enough ball-handler so that he can get to the rim reliably or bend defenses and kick the ball out to open shooters. TK showed glimpses of both as a Fr. at Duke, and it is reasonable to think that he can improve on both with full-time professional training.
As a Duke fan, I wish he had stayed b/c he was good as a Fr. and offered the possibility of improving a lot with an expanded role on offense (possibly) as a So. It probably was the right decision for him to go in the draft b/c he'll probably get better being able to focus full time on his game with pros.

[JasonEvans]

Cassius Stanley vs Wendell Moore, classmates and similarly ranked prospects, may end up being an interesting case study on developing at Duke vs developing at the NBA level.

I think the assumption is that guys will develop more sitting on an NBA bench or playing in the G League. There’s a lot to be said for being in an incredibly supportive environment (Duke), with access to world class facilities and top coaching, and developing the confidence of a featured star. Now with NIL, hopefully more of these guys will choose the Wendell Moore route….

Well, even though they were in the same high school class there was one very, very big difference between Stanley and Moore...

Wendell Moore, date of birth -- Sept 18, 2001
Cassius Stanley, date of birth -- Aug 18, 1999

That's 25 months.

As the NBA knows, there is a whole world of difference in how much you can improve as an 18 year old versus being 20.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Keels may have done Duke a favor by moving on. He is not that great a shooter or passer.

You know that's a reason to actually stay in school, right? To be coached more and improve those skills? (Which happens all the time with folks that stick around another year or two.) By your logic, that's a way of saying "Whew, thanks for leaving".

[tommy]

As the NBA knows, there is a whole world of difference in how much you can improve as an 18 year old versus being 20.

That is the conventional wisdom, but what is the actual evidence of its truth?

[cato]

Keels may have done Duke a favor by moving on. He is not that great a shooter or passer.

Dissent. Scheyer would have made different moves if the staff thought Duke would be better of without Keels. Coach wanted him back and kept a spot open for him until he made his decision.

I agree with the sentiment that Duke will be fine, but Trevor would have been very valuable to the team next year.

[cato]

You know that's a reason to actually stay in school, right? To be coached more and improve those skills? (Which happens all the time with folks that stick around another year or two.) By your logic, that's a way of saying "Whew, thanks for leaving".

For people like Wendell Moore Jr. and his running mate Mark Williams, an extra year or two in the Duke program clearly helped them grow and develop in ways that will help them long term in the NBA.

The issue for Keels is that he is not like Moore and Williams. He doesn’t have the NBA body or athletic ability they have, so he is going to have to make it on skills and toughness. Whether he is going to develop those skills and toughness, I don’t know. But I also can’t pretend to know if he is more likely to develop them at Duke or as a 2 way player in the NBA, but I do know that if he didn’t shoot better from 3 next year, he would be at a huge risk of going un-drafted down the road.

Hopefully RJ Barrett will be a valuable resource for Trevor. No matter what, Keels is going to have work harder than lots of guys in the NBA if he wants to make it.

[Skydog]

So from reading the above posts I get that Keels isn't athletic, doesn't have an NBA type body, can't shoot, pass, dribble or rebound? So his strengths are... not turnover prone?

[dukelifer]

That is the conventional wisdom, but what is the actual evidence of its truth?

Jack White and Seth Curry say hello.

[dukelifer]

So from reading the above posts I get that Keels isn't athletic, doesn't have an NBA type body, can't shoot, pass, dribble or rebound? So his strengths are... not turnover prone?

He has the supreme confidence of an NBA player.

[cato]

So from reading the above posts I get that Keels isn't athletic, doesn't have an NBA type body, can't shoot, pass, dribble or rebound? So his strengths are... not turnover prone?

He is very strong, works hard (including on D) and can shoot (hopefully). That is a good combination, but turns a lot on hitting shots.

I am reminded a bit by Jack White, who plays a different position but needs to be able to score from distance to make the NBA.

I’ll be rooting for both.

[Alan_Wilson]

I don't understand. What is "the obvious"?

I figured it was obvious that for a young, unproven player whose future is in limbo, displaying yourself in the summer league would be beneficial. I don't know what Cassius's current contractual status is. He played in the G league for Motor City most all of last season. I don't know if he's still on the squad. I'm having trouble finding a clear answer on the globoweb. Maybe Motor City still has rights to him and he's locked in for this upcoming season.

[Alan_Wilson]

Keels may have done Duke a favor by moving on. He is not that great a shooter or passer.

Disagree. His game is well suited for college. I'll take a multi year guy who knows the system and plays defense any day. His shooting was hot and cold but he was never a chucker who let his ego take over. He had a role last season and stuck to it. That role would have grown this upcoming season.

[JasonEvans]

That is the conventional wisdom, but what is the actual evidence of its truth?

I mean, Wendell Moore (who has progressed and grown massively the past couple years) and Cassisus Stanley (who may not be in the league at the same age as Wendell) would seem to be proof, right?

The simple anatomy and maturation of the human body tells us that the further you are from your physical peak, the more room you have to grow into a peak specimen. NBA teams, which invest tens of millions of dollars into young players, have spent a lot of time studying this. They tell you that an 18 year old player who is similarly skilled as a 20 year old player will almost certainly end up being better -- probably significantly better -- than the 20 year old at some point in the new few years. We see this happen again and again and again in draft picks as they age and mature.

I truthfully did not know this was controversial.

And I am sure you can cite examples of guys who developed late. No rule is an absolute. But, more often than not, a younger player has a better chance of being better than a similarly skilled older player.

[SkyBrickey]

I mean, Wendell Moore (who has progressed and grown massively the past couple years) and Cassisus Stanley (who may not be in the league at the same age as Wendell) would seem to be proof, right?

The simple anatomy and maturation of the human body tells us that the further you are from your physical peak, the more room you have to grow into a peak specimen. NBA teams, which invest tens of millions of dollars into young players, have spent a lot of time studying this. They tell you that an 18 year old player who is similarly skilled as a 20 year old player will almost certainly end up being better -- probably significantly better -- than the 20 year old at some point in the new few years. We see this happen again and again and again in draft picks as they age and mature.

I truthfully did not know this was controversial.

And I am sure you can cite examples of guys who developed late. No rule is an absolute. But, more often than not, a younger player has a better chance of being better than a similarly skilled older player.

So by your logic, Wendell should have had a premium value by the NBA 2 years ago over Stanley because he was 2 years younger with a lot more room to develop?

I agree they aren’t perfect comparables because of the age gap. Maybe DJ Steward and Wendell are better comparables. What I think Wendell proves is that if you’re a borderline prospect, you can develop just as well and perhaps even better returning to a very supportive environment of Duke basketball.

[awhom111]

I figured it was obvious that for a young, unproven player whose future is in limbo, displaying yourself in the summer league would be beneficial. I don't know what Cassius's current contractual status is. He played in the G league for Motor City most all of last season. I don't know if he's still on the squad. I'm having trouble finding a clear answer on the globoweb. Maybe Motor City still has rights to him and he's locked in for this upcoming season.

He probably played enough for Motor City to have his G League rights, but that would not affect his ability to play for any team in the Summer League or to sign any NBA contract. He was good enough this past season that I would find it hard to believe that none of the 30 teams would put him on a roster so I would guess that he was not physically able to compete.

[HayYou]

So by your logic, Wendell should have had a premium value by the NBA 2 years ago over Stanley because he was 2 years younger with a lot more room to develop?

I agree they aren’t perfect comparables because of the age gap. Maybe DJ Steward and Wendell are better comparables. What I think Wendell proves is that if you’re a borderline prospect, you can develop just as well and perhaps even better returning to a very supportive environment of Duke basketball.

It isn't either/or. Wendell because of his youth could afford to return to college without unduly sacrificing his upside. He was still young enough to return to school but still retain the upside of being a younger player. Had Wendell been 1-2 years older which lots of frosh are today then he'd have had very little upside remaining after 3 years.

It isn't an argument for returning to college. Wendell is an argument for going to college at a younger age. Bates did that. If he'd been smart enough to stick with msu then he'd be getting ready for year 2 with tons of upside left.

[mdj]

That is the conventional wisdom, but what is the actual evidence of its truth?

The Undoing Project Michael Lewis book on Kahneman and Tveresky and behavioral economics in general has a chapter on Darryl Morley where among other things he says the strongest indicator he found in studying years of previous draft picks was the negative correlation between a players age and his future success. In other words all things equal the 22 year old that produced xyz was overvalued vs the 19 year old that produced xyz. The data set was draft picks up through the early aughts and the NBA has since taken this into account across the league is my understanding.