MBB: Duke v Jacksonville (11/7, 7:00 PM EST, ACCN) Pre-game and In-game Thread

[DavidBenAkiva]

Well friends, we've made it to the regular season. After a 7-month wait, Duke men's basketball returns again with a lot of newness. Head Coach Jon Scheyer will make his coaching debut. 11 of the 13 players on Duke's roster will be new. The opponent will be new. I believe this will be the first time that the Duke Blue Devils and Jacksonville Dolphins will have ever faced each other. The opposing head coach is fairly new, too. Jordan Mincy is entering his second year as a head coach. Both he and Jon Scheyer are in their mid-30s. There will be a lot of fresh faces in Cameron Indoor Stadium on Monday night!

Mincy had a very successful first season at Jacksonville. The Dolphins lost to Bellarmine in the ASUN Finals, 77-72. The funny thing about that was that neither team got to play in the NCAAT. Bellarmine was barred from playing the NCAAT as they transition to D-I. Conference regular-season champs Jacksonville St. got to go dancing instead.

The Dolphins play an extremely slow and defensive-oriented game. They ranked 356th in the nation in tempo last year. They also had a lot of trouble putting the ball in the basket. One area where they do excel is hitting the offensive glass. They ranked 26th in the nation in offensive rebound rate. As you might imagine, they have some size up front. SR F Osayi Osifo is and 6'8" 225 lbs and JR C Mike Marsh is 6'10" and 250 lbs. SR F Bryce Workman is another big body at 6'7" 230 lbs. He is one big and tough dude, the kind that knows how to use his weight and strength to make up for his height in the paint. None of the big men are gifted scorers or particularly skilled. They work. The Dolphins added former Illinois and Florida (Mincy was a Florida assistant before he was named head coach at Jacksonville) big man Omar Payne, a 6'10" F/C that was a top-50 recruit out of high school, to further bolster the frontcourt. They pound the glass hard, although with all that size they were among the worst at shot-blocking on defense. It's a pound-you-into-the-ground approach. Payne is a legitimate shot blocking threat, so he adds a slightly new dimension to their approach. Overall, though, it's one of toughness and physicality.

On offense, the straw that stirs the drink is 6'2" SR G Kevion Nolan. He is a gunner from 3, making 38.6% of his shots over the course of his 4 previous seasons. Nolan is less adept at scoring inside the arc, hitting just 37.3% of his shots inside last season. Perhaps he's having to move around too many bodies in the paint. Nolan also led the Dolphins in assists last year with 4 per game against a respectable 1.4 turnovers. When Nolan isn't scoring, the Dolphins really struggle to get anything going on offense. When Nolan scored 13 or more points last season, Jacksonville was 12-3. When Nolan scored less than 13 points a game, they were just 5-5. Keeping Nolan in check should be the primary focus of the defense. The other primary backcourt threat is 6'3" SR G Jordan Davis. The former Dayton and Middle Tennessee player struggled to consistently score for Jacksonville last year but has proven capable of scoring 20+ on occasion. Davis has hit just 31.3% from 3, so Mincy snagged a pair of shooters through the transfer portal. Those players include 6'3" SR G Jarius Cook (from ND State) and 6'4" SR G Dylan O'Hearn (from NJIT). Duke will have to keep an eye on Cook and O'Hearn, especially after an offensive rebound. Returning 6'2" JR G Gyasi Powell rounds out the backcourt rotation.

The Dolphins don't have any wings per se. It's all guards and forwards. O'Hearn is about the closest thing to a wing on the roster.

This is most likely going to be an ugly game. Duke has the height to match up with the Dolphins, but not necessarily the bulk. Securing the ball will be key. Hopefully Dereck Lively will be able to play and provide additional rebounding and rim protection. He's going to be much quicker than Marsh, Payne, and the other frontcourt players for Jacksonville. Mitchell, too, should be able to move right around Workman, Marsh, and others if he gets isolated on the wings. Filipowski can help draw one of the big men out from the paint, where they are far more comfortable. Ryan Young could be an X-factor as he uses his back-to-the-basket game to score inside and draw fouls. The Dolphins will have plenty of fouls to give, but the accumulation of them should go in Duke's favor.

The Dolphins struggled with turnovers last season, so stripping the ball from the frontcourt players and forcing bad passes will be key. In general, getting the Dolphins to run will be like making fish walk. It's what Duke does well and what Jacksonville does poorly. Staying in a grind-it-out pace of mostly half-court action with lots of second-chance points could spell disaster. Playing Houston in a scrimmage prior to playing Jacksonville should have helped to prepare this Duke team. We'll see if the new faces can be poised when the lights are bright and the games count. The Scheyer Era begins on Monday night. I can't wait!

[arnie]

Well friends, we've made it to the regular season. After a 7-month wait, Duke men's basketball returns again with a lot of newness. Head Coach Jon Scheyer will make his coaching debut. 11 of the 13 players on Duke's roster will be new. The opponent will be new. I believe this will be the first time that the Duke Blue Devils and Jacksonville Dolphins will have ever faced each other. The opposing head coach is fairly new, too. Jordan Mincy is entering his second year as a head coach. Both he and Jon Scheyer are in their mid-30s. There will be a lot of fresh faces in Cameron Indoor Stadium on Monday night!

Mincy had a very successful first season at Jacksonville. The Dolphins lost to Bellarmine in the ASUN Finals, 77-72. The funny thing about that was that neither team got to play in the NCAAT. Bellarmine was barred from playing the NCAAT as they transition to D-I. Conference regular-season champs Jacksonville St. got to go dancing instead.

The Dolphins play an extremely slow and defensive-oriented game. They ranked 356th in the nation in tempo last year. They also had a lot of trouble putting the ball in the basket. One area where they do excel is hitting the offensive glass. They ranked 26th in the nation in offensive rebound rate. As you might imagine, they have some size up front. SR F Osayi Osifo is and 6'8" 225 lbs and JR C Mike Marsh is 6'10" and 250 lbs. SR F Bryce Workman is another big body at 6'7" 230 lbs. He is one big and tough dude, the kind that knows how to use his weight and strength to make up for his height in the paint. None of the big men are gifted scorers or particularly skilled. They work. The Dolphins added former Illinois and Florida (Mincy was a Florida assistant before he was named head coach at Jacksonville) big man Omar Payne, a 6'10" F/C that was a top-50 recruit out of high school, to further bolster the frontcourt. They pound the glass hard, although with all that size they were among the worst at shot-blocking on defense. It's a pound-you-into-the-ground approach. Payne is a legitimate shot blocking threat, so he adds a slightly new dimension to their approach. Overall, though, it's one of toughness and physicality.

On offense, the straw that stirs the drink is 6'2" SR G Kevion Nolan. He is a gunner from 3, making 38.6% of his shots over the course of his 4 previous seasons. Nolan is less adept at scoring inside the arc, hitting just 37.3% of his shots inside last season. Perhaps he's having to move around too many bodies in the paint. Nolan also led the Dolphins in assists last year with 4 per game against a respectable 1.4 turnovers. When Nolan isn't scoring, the Dolphins really struggle to get anything going on offense. When Nolan scored 13 or more points last season, Jacksonville was 12-3. When Nolan scored less than 13 points a game, they were just 5-5. Keeping Nolan in check should be the primary focus of the defense. The other primary backcourt threat is 6'3" SR G Jordan Davis. The former Dayton and Middle Tennessee player struggled to consistently score for Jacksonville last year but has proven capable of scoring 20+ on occasion. Davis has hit just 31.3% from 3, so Mincy snagged a pair of shooters through the transfer portal. Those players include 6'3" SR G Jarius Cook (from ND State) and 6'4" SR G Dylan O'Hearn (from NJIT). Duke will have to keep an eye on Cook and O'Hearn, especially after an offensive rebound. Returning 6'2" JR G Gyasi Powell rounds out the backcourt rotation.

The Dolphins don't have any wings per se. It's all guards and forwards. O'Hearn is about the closest thing to a wing on the roster.

This is most likely going to be an ugly game. Duke has the height to match up with the Dolphins, but not necessarily the bulk. Securing the ball will be key. Hopefully Dereck Lively will be able to play and provide additional rebounding and rim protection. He's going to be much quicker than Marsh, Payne, and the other frontcourt players for Jacksonville. Mitchell, too, should be able to move right around Workman, Marsh, and others if he gets isolated on the wings. Filipowski can help draw one of the big men out from the paint, where they are far more comfortable. Ryan Young could be an X-factor as he uses his back-to-the-basket game to score inside and draw fouls. The Dolphins will have plenty of fouls to give, but the accumulation of them should go in Duke's favor.

The Dolphins struggled with turnovers last season, so stripping the ball from the frontcourt players and forcing bad passes will be key. In general, getting the Dolphins to run will be like making fish walk. It's what Duke does well and what Jacksonville does poorly. Staying in a grind-it-out pace of mostly half-court action with lots of second-chance points could spell disaster. Playing Houston in a scrimmage prior to playing Jacksonville should have helped to prepare this Duke team. We'll see if the new faces can be poised when the lights are bright and the games count. The Scheyer Era begins on Monday night. I can't wait!

Might want to revise the thread title to maximize credibility of the post.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Drat! Mods, please update the title to Jacksonville.

[JasonEvans]

Drat! Mods, please update the title to Jacksonville.

[scottdude8]

Well friends, we've made it to the regular season. After a 7-month wait, Duke men's basketball returns again with a lot of newness. Head Coach Jon Scheyer will make his coaching debut. 11 of the 13 players on Duke's roster will be new. The opponent will be new. I believe this will be the first time that the Duke Blue Devils and Jacksonville Dolphins will have ever faced each other. The opposing head coach is fairly new, too. Jordan Mincy is entering his second year as a head coach. Both he and Jon Scheyer are in their mid-30s. There will be a lot of fresh faces in Cameron Indoor Stadium on Monday night!

Mincy had a very successful first season at Jacksonville. The Dolphins lost to Bellarmine in the ASUN Finals, 77-72. The funny thing about that was that neither team got to play in the NCAAT. Bellarmine was barred from playing the NCAAT as they transition to D-I. Conference regular-season champs Jacksonville St. got to go dancing instead.

The Dolphins play an extremely slow and defensive-oriented game. They ranked 356th in the nation in tempo last year. They also had a lot of trouble putting the ball in the basket. One area where they do excel is hitting the offensive glass. They ranked 26th in the nation in offensive rebound rate. As you might imagine, they have some size up front. SR F Osayi Osifo is and 6'8" 225 lbs and JR C Mike Marsh is 6'10" and 250 lbs. SR F Bryce Workman is another big body at 6'7" 230 lbs. He is one big and tough dude, the kind that knows how to use his weight and strength to make up for his height in the paint. None of the big men are gifted scorers or particularly skilled. They work. The Dolphins added former Illinois and Florida (Mincy was a Florida assistant before he was named head coach at Jacksonville) big man Omar Payne, a 6'10" F/C that was a top-50 recruit out of high school, to further bolster the frontcourt. They pound the glass hard, although with all that size they were among the worst at shot-blocking on defense. It's a pound-you-into-the-ground approach. Payne is a legitimate shot blocking threat, so he adds a slightly new dimension to their approach. Overall, though, it's one of toughness and physicality.

On offense, the straw that stirs the drink is 6'2" SR G Kevion Nolan. He is a gunner from 3, making 38.6% of his shots over the course of his 4 previous seasons. Nolan is less adept at scoring inside the arc, hitting just 37.3% of his shots inside last season. Perhaps he's having to move around too many bodies in the paint. Nolan also led the Dolphins in assists last year with 4 per game against a respectable 1.4 turnovers. When Nolan isn't scoring, the Dolphins really struggle to get anything going on offense. When Nolan scored 13 or more points last season, Jacksonville was 12-3. When Nolan scored less than 13 points a game, they were just 5-5. Keeping Nolan in check should be the primary focus of the defense. The other primary backcourt threat is 6'3" SR G Jordan Davis. The former Dayton and Middle Tennessee player struggled to consistently score for Jacksonville last year but has proven capable of scoring 20+ on occasion. Davis has hit just 31.3% from 3, so Mincy snagged a pair of shooters through the transfer portal. Those players include 6'3" SR G Jarius Cook (from ND State) and 6'4" SR G Dylan O'Hearn (from NJIT). Duke will have to keep an eye on Cook and O'Hearn, especially after an offensive rebound. Returning 6'2" JR G Gyasi Powell rounds out the backcourt rotation.

The Dolphins don't have any wings per se. It's all guards and forwards. O'Hearn is about the closest thing to a wing on the roster.

This is most likely going to be an ugly game. Duke has the height to match up with the Dolphins, but not necessarily the bulk. Securing the ball will be key. Hopefully Dereck Lively will be able to play and provide additional rebounding and rim protection. He's going to be much quicker than Marsh, Payne, and the other frontcourt players for Jacksonville. Mitchell, too, should be able to move right around Workman, Marsh, and others if he gets isolated on the wings. Filipowski can help draw one of the big men out from the paint, where they are far more comfortable. Ryan Young could be an X-factor as he uses his back-to-the-basket game to score inside and draw fouls. The Dolphins will have plenty of fouls to give, but the accumulation of them should go in Duke's favor.

The Dolphins struggled with turnovers last season, so stripping the ball from the frontcourt players and forcing bad passes will be key. In general, getting the Dolphins to run will be like making fish walk. It's what Duke does well and what Jacksonville does poorly. Staying in a grind-it-out pace of mostly half-court action with lots of second-chance points could spell disaster. Playing Houston in a scrimmage prior to playing Jacksonville should have helped to prepare this Duke team. We'll see if the new faces can be poised when the lights are bright and the games count. The Scheyer Era begins on Monday night. I can't wait!

Thanks for the great writeup DBA. Here's what I'll be looking for:

- Can the aggressive D we showcased last night work against a slow team? Whether or not this strategy works against the Virginias of the world depends on whether we can maintain that pressure for close to 30 seconds without breaking down. Obviously Jacksonville is not Virginia, but it should be an interesting test case for down the road.

- How will Ryan Young fit in? Will he be able to generate offense and draw fouls against a team with size, albeit size that on paper shouldn't be at his level? Or will his offensive impact be more matchup dependent come ACC play? This could shed some insight there, especially if Lively is still limited.

- Can we create mismatches offensively? I'll be curious to see if Coach Scheyer starts using the versatility we've been so excited about early. Against a team with mostly guards and forwards, can we use a small-ball lineup with Mitchell at the 5 to wreck havoc offensively while remaining viable defensively? Can we exploit our ability to use twin-towers lineups against lesser competition? I think we're going to have a lot of combos this year, and I'd like to see as many of them as possible get game action so that the team will be prepared for any and all possibilities this season.

- What about Lively? It sounds like Whitehead isn't expected to be available, but Lively could be. If he is, how much does he change the team? I would expect he'll be a big plus on the fast break compared to Young (or even Filipowski), and his ability to erase shots at the rim could allow our defense to be even more aggressive.

- What's the offensive pecking order? We should have a balanced attack this year, but there always needs to be an alpha. Who gets the ball to go one-on-one when the shot clock goes down? We all assume its Jeremy, but I wouldn't be shocked if Tyrese takes some of that responsibility too.

[MChambers]

- What's the offensive pecking order? We should have a balanced attack this year, but there always needs to be an alpha. Who gets the ball to go one-on-one when the shot clock goes down? We all assume its Jeremy, but I wouldn't be shocked if Tyrese takes some of that responsibility too.

Is the bolded statement true? If it is, who was the alpha in 2010?

I'd be much happier with a team that has three or four very good scorers on the floor, sharing the ball, and taking advantage of what the defense gives.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Is the bolded statement true? If it is, who was the alpha in 2010?

I'd be much happier with a team that has three or four very good scorers on the floor, sharing the ball, and taking advantage of what the defense gives.

Completely agree with this. The idea that a team needs an "alpha" has always been silly to me. The early-2000s Pistons were a team without an alpha. Even the term "alpha" is weird since the research that led to this was ultimately withdrawn by the researcher. Wolf packs, like basketball team, don't necessarily have alpha/beta males.

In basketball, I think it helps to have a guy that can score at the end of the shot clock. I'm not sure who that is on this team. It could be Jeremy Roach or Tyrese Proctor. It might be Dariq Whitehead. Or it might b be situational. I like the idea of having options. It's harder to gameplan against a well-balanced team.

[MChambers]

My knowledge of Jacksonville University basketball is pretty well limited to the Artis Gilmore years, and a few years after that, when they still had some pretty good teams. (I grew up in Jacksonville and remember going to see Artis Gilmore at the Jacksonville Coliseum. He was amazing. His senior season he averaged a triple-double, with 22 pts, 23rbs, and 10.5 blocks.)

I am interested to see that Jacksonville University, which is in Florida, is in the same conference as Jacksonville State University, which is in Alabama. (Jacksonville State University's motto is "the friendliest campus in the South".)

Also, we may think that the ACC schedulers do some odd things, but Jacksonville University plays the University of North Florida, which is also in Jacksonville, on February 2, at home, and February 4, away. Both games, of course, will be in Jacksonville. I can't really imagine why you would do that.

Bart Torvik is projecting that Jacksonville will actually be fairly good, with a 20-9 record. Of course, before they play a game this is almost a complete guess.

[HayYou]

Is the bolded statement true? If it is, who was the alpha in 2010?

I'd be much happier with a team that has three or four very good scorers on the floor, sharing the ball, and taking advantage of what the defense gives.

An alpha is always preferable. If it is a true alpha. Paolo rather than RJ Barrett.

Being the best scorer on a team doesn't make one a true alpha.

[scottdude8]

Is the bolded statement true? If it is, who was the alpha in 2010?

I'd be much happier with a team that has three or four very good scorers on the floor, sharing the ball, and taking advantage of what the defense gives.

Yeah… I phrased that very poorly, haha. What I should’ve said was I’m curious to see who is the “late shot clock scorer”.

[scottdude8]

Completely agree with this. The idea that a team needs an "alpha" has always been silly to me. The early-2000s Pistons were a team without an alpha. Even the term "alpha" is weird since the research that led to this was ultimately withdrawn by the researcher. Wolf packs, like basketball team, don't necessarily have alpha/beta males.

In basketball, I think it helps to have a guy that can score at the end of the shot clock. I'm not sure who that is on this team. It could be Jeremy Roach or Tyrese Proctor. It might be Dariq Whitehead. Or it might b be situational. I like the idea of having options. It's harder to gameplan against a well-balanced team.

The early 2000 Pistons? I know those guys! I love those guys!

Definitely didn’t think that phrasing all the way through, haha.

[dukelifer]

Completely agree with this. The idea that a team needs an "alpha" has always been silly to me. The early-2000s Pistons were a team without an alpha. Even the term "alpha" is weird since the research that led to this was ultimately withdrawn by the researcher. Wolf packs, like basketball team, don't necessarily have alpha/beta males.

In basketball, I think it helps to have a guy that can score at the end of the shot clock. I'm not sure who that is on this team. It could be Jeremy Roach or Tyrese Proctor. It might be Dariq Whitehead. Or it might b be situational. I like the idea of having options. It's harder to gameplan against a well-balanced team.

I think you want a team on which you have guys that on any given night can get you 20 or more points and have shown this in big games. This team seems to have that. I expect Whitehead, Grandison, Roach, Mitchell and Proctor all to have at least one high scoring outing during the ACC schedule.

[SkyBrickey]

I believe both Whitehead and Proctor will be able to manufacture decent shots late in the shot clock - length, handle, midrange game. Jeremy too. Maybe the balanced attack will end up giving us even better late shot looks since Paolo always had 2-3 guys keying on him.

[Kedsy]

An alpha is always preferable. If it is a true alpha. Paolo rather than RJ Barrett.

Being the best scorer on a team doesn't make one a true alpha.

All this "alpha" talk confuses me. What makes somebody an alpha? Best college player? Best NBA prospect? High scorer? High scorer in close/big games? High scorer at end of games? Veteran leader? Guy with ball in his hands the most?

Everybody says Paolo, and as the #1 pick in the draft, he certainly was the best NBA prospect on the team. He was also our best college player (probably) and high scorer. But he also only scored 17.2 ppg (on 52.0% eFG; 6th best eFG among our 8 rotation players) for the season. That made him our lowest high-scorer of the past ten seasons. In games decided by 12 or fewer points, his ppg went down slightly, to 16.9.

We played 21 games decided by 12 or fewer points. In the last five minutes of such games, Paolo scored 2 or fewer points in 15 of the 21 games. He scored four points in the last five minutes in four of the 21 games. Ironically, in the only two close games in which Paolo scored more than 4 points in the last five minutes, Duke lost the game (7 points vs Miami on 1/8 and 10 points vs FSU on 1/18, including OT). Overall, in the last five minutes of games decided by 12 or fewer points, Paolo scored 2.2 points per game on a kind-of-pathetic 35% shooting from the field. You take away the Miami and FSU losses, and in the last five minutes of close games Paolo scored 1.5 points per game on really-really-bad 26.7% shooting

Obviously Paolo was a great player. He also often drew double and even triple teams, which may have skewed his stats. But do people really think nobody on this year's team will score 17ppg or score more than two points in the last five minutes of close games? What made Paolo an "alpha"? And if he was our alpha, why is having a player with those stats so critical to team success?

[jimmymax]

All this "alpha" talk confuses me. What makes somebody an alpha? Best college player? Best NBA prospect? High scorer? High scorer in close/big games? High scorer at end of games? Veteran leader? Guy with ball in his hands the most?

Everybody says Paolo, and as the #1 pick in the draft, he certainly was the best NBA prospect on the team. He was also our best college player (probably) and high scorer. But he also only scored 17.2 ppg (on 52.0% eFG; 6th best eFG among our 8 rotation players) for the season. That made him our lowest high-scorer of the past ten seasons. In games decided by 12 or fewer points, his ppg went down slightly, to 16.9.

We played 21 games decided by 12 or fewer points. In the last five minutes of such games, Paolo scored 2 or fewer points in 15 of the 21 games. He scored four points in the last five minutes in four of the 21 games. Ironically, in the only two close games in which Paolo scored more than 4 points in the last five minutes, Duke lost the game (7 points vs Miami on 1/8 and 10 points vs FSU on 1/18, including OT). Overall, in the last five minutes of games decided by 12 or fewer points, Paolo scored 2.2 points per game on a kind-of-pathetic 35% shooting from the field. You take away the Miami and FSU losses, and in the last five minutes of close games Paolo scored 1.5 points per game on really-really-bad 26.7% shooting

Obviously Paolo was a great player. He also often drew double and even triple teams, which may have skewed his stats. But do people really think nobody on this year's team will score 17ppg or score more than two points in the last five minutes of close games? What made Paolo an "alpha"? And if he was our alpha, why is having a player with those stats so critical to team success?

I understand your confusion, there's no ALPHA() formula in Excel.

[SkyBrickey]

I don’t think anyone on this team will score 17+ ppg. But I do think we could have 7 players that score 9+ ppg which would, I believe, be our most balanced scoring team in over 30 years.

If that sounds like a crazy prediction, which of our top 7 guys won’t score 9 ppg? Flip, Grandison, Mitchell? It’s tough to imagine….

[heyman25]

Hope Lively can get a few minutes and get his season started.I expect Jake Grandison, Mark Mitchell, Tyrese Proctor and Jeremy Roach to be our main scorers Monday night.

[arnie]

My knowledge of Jacksonville University basketball is pretty well limited to the Artis Gilmore years, and a few years after that, when they still had some pretty good teams. (I grew up in Jacksonville and remember going to see Artis Gilmore at the Jacksonville Coliseum. He was amazing. His senior season he averaged a triple-double, with 22 pts, 23rbs, and 10.5 blocks.)

I am interested to see that Jacksonville University, which is in Florida, is in the same conference as Jacksonville State University, which is in Alabama. (Jacksonville State University's motto is "the friendliest campus in the South".)

Also, we may think that the ACC schedulers do some odd things, but Jacksonville University plays the University of North Florida, which is also in Jacksonville, on February 2, at home, and February 4, away. Both games, of course, will be in Jacksonville. I can't really imagine why you would do that.

Bart Torvik is projecting that Jacksonville will actually be fairly good, with a 20-9 record. Of course, before they play a game this is almost a complete guess.

Early betting lines kind of agree with Torvik. We are only 16.5 favorites, which is lower than I expected.

Hope we are ready for a seasoned opponent with some talent.

[jv001]

All this "alpha" talk confuses me. What makes somebody an alpha? Best college player? Best NBA prospect? High scorer? High scorer in close/big games? High scorer at end of games? Veteran leader? Guy with ball in his hands the most?

Everybody says Paolo, and as the #1 pick in the draft, he certainly was the best NBA prospect on the team. He was also our best college player (probably) and high scorer. But he also only scored 17.2 ppg (on 52.0% eFG; 6th best eFG among our 8 rotation players) for the season. That made him our lowest high-scorer of the past ten seasons. In games decided by 12 or fewer points, his ppg went down slightly, to 16.9.

We played 21 games decided by 12 or fewer points. In the last five minutes of such games, Paolo scored 2 or fewer points in 15 of the 21 games. He scored four points in the last five minutes in four of the 21 games. Ironically, in the only two close games in which Paolo scored more than 4 points in the last five minutes, Duke lost the game (7 points vs Miami on 1/8 and 10 points vs FSU on 1/18, including OT). Overall, in the last five minutes of games decided by 12 or fewer points, Paolo scored 2.2 points per game on a kind-of-pathetic 35% shooting from the field. You take away the Miami and FSU losses, and in the last five minutes of close games Paolo scored 1.5 points per game on really-really-bad 26.7% shooting

Obviously Paolo was a great player. He also often drew double and even triple teams, which may have skewed his stats. But do people really think nobody on this year's team will score 17ppg or score more than two points in the last five minutes of close games? What made Paolo an "alpha"? And if he was our alpha, why is having a player with those stats so critical to team success?

That is some amazing information and I'm surprised at Paolo's numbers in closing minutes. I wonder what Duke player or players since OAD, have the best end of game numbers. I guess if you count Jay Williams in that time frame, he might have the best. But which Duke freshmen was the best?

GoDuke!

[Kedsy]

That is some amazing information and I'm surprised at Paolo's numbers in closing minutes. I wonder what Duke player or players since OAD, have the best end of game numbers. I guess if you count Jay Williams in that time frame, he might have the best. But which Duke freshmen was the best?

GoDuke!

I don't know. It's way too much work. But I did compile some numbers for Barrett, Williamson, and Reddish from 2019:

			SEASON			CLOSE		
Player		cl gms	PPG	FGAPG	P/FGA	PPG	FGAPG	P/FGA
Paolo Banchero	21	17.2	13.2	1.30	16.86	13.05	1.29
RJ Barrett	18	22.6	18.5	1.22	22.00	19.22	1.14
Cam Reddish	16	13.5	12.0	1.13	12.69	11.00	1.15
Zion Williamson	13	22.6	13.2	1.71	25.38	15.62	1.63

The above shows how each player scored for the season vs. how they performed in close games. Of the four, Zion seemed to step up his game in the big ones; the others' numbers are fairly consistent with their full season numbers.

The below shows each player's performance in the last five minutes of games (last five plus the OT in overtime games):

Player		Gms	FG	FGA	FG%	FT	FTA	FT%	Pts	>2pts	%	>4pts	%
Paolo Banchero	21	0.67	1.90	0.350	0.81	1.10	0.739	2.19	6	28.6%	2	9.5%
RJ Barrett	18	0.89	2.33	0.381	0.78	1.39	0.560	2.72	9	50.0%	3	16.7%
Cam Reddish	16	0.50	1.25	0.400	1.00	1.25	0.800	2.50	7	43.8%	4	25.0%
Zion Williamson	13	1.00	1.62	0.619	0.77	1.15	0.667	2.77	6	46.2%	3	23.1%

Obviously, the 2019 players had to compete with each other for their "alpha-time," but even so Paolo looks the least alphalike of the bumch (especially since his numbers are largely inflated by two good final five minutes, 7 points against Miami and 10 points against FSU; FWIW, Cam's numbers are also somewhat inflated by a 7 pt final five minutes and a 10 pt final five). Interestingly, Paolo and RJ have the most crunch time FG attempts, but are also the least efficient.

Also interesting, in 4 of Zion's 13 close games (30.8%), he neither attempted a field goal nor a free throw in the last five minutes. Similarly, Cam failed to attempt a field goal or a free throw in 5 of his 16 close games (31.3%). For Paolo, it was just one of 21 games (4.8%) and for RJ it was two of 18 games (11.1%). Not sure what inferences to draw from that, but if you take those "passive" games away, the above chart would look like this:

Player		Gms	FG	FGA	FG%	FT	FTA	FT%	Pts	>2pts	%	>4pts	%
Paolo Banchero	20	0.70	2.00	0.350	0.85	1.15	0.739	2.30	6	30.0%	2	10.0%
RJ Barrett	16	1.00	2.63	0.381	0.88	1.56	0.560	3.06	9	56.3%	3	18.8%
Cam Reddish	12	0.67	1.67	0.400	1.33	1.67	0.800	3.33	7	58.3%	4	33.3%
Zion Williamson	9	1.44	2.33	0.619	1.11	1.67	0.667	4.00	6	66.7%	3	33.3%

Finally, here's a table showing what percentage of the team's points were scored by each player in the last five minutes of close games:

Player		Gms	Pts	%	Team pts
Paolo Banchero	21	46	20.1%	229
RJ Barrett	18	49	25.0%	196
Cam Reddish	16	40	22.7%	176
Zion Williamson	13	36	23.1%	156

In 2019, roughly 30% of the team's points in the last five minutes of close games were scored by players other than RJ, Cam, and Zion. In 2022, almost 80% of the points in the last five minutes of close games were scored by players other than Paolo, despite the supposed lack of competition for alphahood. For the entire season, Paolo scored 28.8% of Duke's points, a fair amount better than he did in the final five minutes of close games.