2022 NBA Off-season

[JasonEvans]

With last night's end of the NBA season (congrats to Steph and the Dubs), it is time to turn our focus to next year. This will be the thread we use for talk about free agency, trades, and other NBA moves that happen over the summer.

I'll get it started with this list from BetMGM of the odds to win the 2023 NBA title. It should come as little surprise that this year's finals participants are at the head of the line:

• Golden State Warriors: +550 (11 to 2)
• Boston Celtics: +650 (13 to 2)
• Brooklyn Nets: +700 (7 to 1)
• LA Clippers: +700 (7 to 1)
• Milwaukee Bucks: +800 (8 to 1)
• Phoenix Suns: +900 (9 to 1)
• Dallas Mavericks: +1400 (14 to 1)
• Denver Nuggets: +1400
• Los Angeles Lakers: +1400
• Memphis Grizzlies: +1400
• Miami Heat: +1400
• Philadelphia 76ers: +1400
• New Orleans Pelicans: +4000
• Utah Jazz: +4000
• Chicago Bulls: +6600
• Minnesota Timberwolves: +6600
• Toronto Raptors: +6600
• Atlanta Hawks: +8000
• Charlotte Hornets: +10000
• Cleveland Cavaliers: +10000
• Portland Trail Blazers: +10000
• Indiana Pacers: +25000
• New York Knicks: +25000
• San Antonio Spurs: +25000
• Washington Wizards: +25000
• Detroit Pistons: +75000
• Sacramento Kings: +75000
• Oklahoma City Thunder: +100000
• Houston Rockets: +200000
• Orlando Magic: +200000

[HayYou]

Celts numbers seem optimistic to me. I think Philly improves with another year, plus health. Ditto the Nets who were decimated by injury last year. And the Celts need all the games to beat the Bucks, who were only missing their second best player (who is also their closer). Miami is a tough, well run franchise who cannot be over looked.

And Horford is another year older for the Celts.

I want the Celts to win, but the east will be rough next year.

And at the end of what I expect to be a tough Easter conf playoffs, I expect you'll find the GSW waiting.

[flyingdutchdevil]

With last night's end of the NBA season (congrats to Steph and the Dubs), it is time to turn our focus to next year. This will be the thread we use for talk about free agency, trades, and other NBA moves that happen over the summer.

I'll get it started with this list from BetMGM of the odds to win the 2023 NBA title. It should come as little surprise that this year's finals participants are at the head of the line:

• Golden State Warriors: +550 (11 to 2)
• Boston Celtics: +650 (13 to 2)
• Brooklyn Nets: +700 (7 to 1)
• LA Clippers: +700 (7 to 1)
• Milwaukee Bucks: +800 (8 to 1)
• Phoenix Suns: +900 (9 to 1)
• Dallas Mavericks: +1400 (14 to 1)
• Denver Nuggets: +1400
• Los Angeles Lakers: +1400
• Memphis Grizzlies: +1400
• Miami Heat: +1400
• Philadelphia 76ers: +1400
• New Orleans Pelicans: +4000
• Utah Jazz: +4000
• Chicago Bulls: +6600
• Minnesota Timberwolves: +6600
• Toronto Raptors: +6600
• Atlanta Hawks: +8000
• Charlotte Hornets: +10000
• Cleveland Cavaliers: +10000
• Portland Trail Blazers: +10000
• Indiana Pacers: +25000
• New York Knicks: +25000
• San Antonio Spurs: +25000
• Washington Wizards: +25000
• Detroit Pistons: +75000
• Sacramento Kings: +75000
• Oklahoma City Thunder: +100000
• Houston Rockets: +200000
• Orlando Magic: +200000

Looks to be ~6 favorites. Surprised the Suns are still a favorite after how poor they looked against Luka and co. And Paul is one year older.

Some really interesting questions for the favorites, including:

1) Can the Dubs get Looney, Payton, and Porter back? How can they reduce their insane salary base?

2) Will the Celtics panic or just run it back? Just one man's perspective: please don't panic...

3) To Kyrie or not to Kyrie? To Simmons or not to Simmons?

4) Kahwi and George are getting a little old, but still effective. Can they still be elite? And if not, is their supporting staff good enough?

5) What do they do about their SG and center position? Both of those got severely exposed during the Celtics series.

6) Does CP3 have anything left? Is there anyway to prevent opposing teams from targeting him?

[scottdude8]

A couple storylines of national interest that I've followed a bit more closely given being a Pistons fan:

1) What happens with DeAndre Ayton? Vegas seems to think the Pistons are a favorite to land him (because, apparently, you can bet on anything now, including where a player will play next season), but on a more national level, despite the Suns seemingly not valuing him as much as he'd like you can't argue his loss wouldn't hurt their chances next year. If he does end up with the Pistons, there's a real chance Detroit's starting front court next year will be the No. 1 and No. 2 picks in the 2018 draft, Ayton and our own Marvin Bagley.

2) What happens with Jerami Grant? Grant is arguably the highest impact "plug and play" player available on the trade market right now, and all indications are the Pistons want to trade him and get back players and/or picks that fit Cade Cunningham's timeline better. Trading Grant would also open up the lineup for Bagley at the 4 and/or playing Saddiq Bey as a small-ball 4. I've seen rumors a deal to the Trailblazers that includes the No. 7 overall pick could be on the table (which would fit with Portland needing to get better now to keep Damian Lillard happy. Or, the Pistons could package Grant and the No. 5 pick to Sacramento for the No. 4 pick plus additional assets, which would make sense considering the Pistons seemingly covet Jaden Ivey, while Ivey's camp has made it clear they don't want him in Sacramento (honestly, who would at this point?). I've also seen Atlanta as a possible destination, but given this other interest one may think their No. 16 overall pick might not be enough. To complicate matters, Grant is said to want to sign a big-money extension with whoever he's traded to (something that, again, the Pistons are unlikely to give him given Cunningham's timeline).

[Steven43]

I don’t get the Nets optimism at all. I think they’re a huge jumbled mess, particularly in having the two biggest headcases (Irving and Simmons) in the NBA. And Durant is an old 34 who could well be starting towards the downside and might be due to have another foot, ankle, or Achilles injury.

But even as I say that I would hate to see it because I love his game and have been dismayed to see the way he has become underrated and overlooked by many fans and sportswriters in the past few months. But I can’t shake the feeling that an injury is on the horizon.

Against Boston I would hold my breath every time he made an aggressive move and put a lot of stress on his lower body. I hope he holds up, but even if he does the team has too many risky and unknown variables to realistically be able to play as a cohesive unit for an entire season.

[ClemmonsDevil]

But even as I say that I would hate to see it because I love his game and have been dismayed to see the way he has become underrated and overlooked by many fans and sportswriters in the past few months.

My favorite player of the last 25 years or so. Top 15-20 player if he can avoid injury and get in 4-5 more years. One of the greatest offensive forces the game has ever seen and arguably the greatest US Olympic player of all time.

[Duke79UNLV77]

I don’t get the Nets optimism at all. I think they’re a huge jumbled mess, particularly in having the two biggest headcases (Irving and Simmons) in the NBA. And Durant is an old 34 who could well be starting towards the downside and might be due to have another foot, ankle, or Achilles injury.

But even as I say that I would hate to see it because I love his game and have been dismayed to see the way he has become underrated and overlooked by many fans and sportswriters in the past few months. But I can’t shake the feeling that an injury is on the horizon.

Against Boston I would hold my breath every time he made an aggressive move and put a lot of stress on his lower body. I hope he holds up, but even if he does the team has too many risky and unknown variables to realistically be able to play as a cohesive unit for an entire season.

The Nets were crushing the eventual champion Bucks a year ago without Harden before Kyrie got hurt, and they still almost won the series without Kyrie and with a seriously hobbled Harden. Durant looked like the best player in the world in the process. They have the potential but need Kyrie and Durant to play together much more, and they aren't as deep in talent as Boston.

[Wander]

Suns jump out to me as the weird one... they seem to be one of the teams in the West that is poised to get worse while other teams like the Mavs and Clippers get better. Heat are probably a little low considering last season's result.

Interesting that Lakers and Nets had similarly disappointing seasons after being the favorites, and one team was punished much more in the odds than the other for it. I think I agree with it, but still interesting.

[Matches]

Before the playoffs commenced this year I predicted a Celtics/ Grizzlies final.

That still seems about right to me for next season, with the caveat that things tend to change pretty rapidly in the modern NBA FA period. The Nets, for example, strike me as extremely volatile right now, and if they end up blowing up it could have ripple effects throughout the league.

[Steven43]

The Nets were crushing the eventual champion Bucks a year ago without Harden before Kyrie got hurt, and they still almost won the series without Kyrie and with a seriously hobbled Harden. Durant looked like the best player in the world in the process. They have the potential but need Kyrie and Durant to play together much more, and they aren't as deep in talent as Boston.

A lot has happened with the Brooklyn Nets since that series against the Bucks two playoffs ago, not much of it good — other than acquiring Seth Curry, who is a solid role player, but not a difference maker.

The Nets experiment has been a huge failure and I don’t see much reason to think that narrative is going to change. If you’re counting on Ben Simmons to be the catalyst for success I think you’re going to be very disappointed.

[cato]

Interesting that Lakers and Nets had similarly disappointing seasons after being the favorites, and one team was punished much more in the odds than the other for it. I think I agree with it, but still interesting.

I think I agree with it too. The Nets could significantly improve simply by having their entire team available and locked in for an entire season. That might not happen — heck, it might not be likely — but you can see the pieces in place and the possibility.

The Lakers, I don’t know. LeBron is not the same unstoppable force he used to be, the pieces don’t fit and they don’t have a ton of flexibility to shore up their shortcomings.

What I don’t understand is putting the Bucks behind the Nets and the Clippers.

[Truth&Justise]

• Golden State Warriors: +550 (11 to 2)
• Boston Celtics: +650 (13 to 2)
• Brooklyn Nets: +700 (7 to 1)
• LA Clippers: +700 (7 to 1)
• Milwaukee Bucks: +800 (8 to 1)
• Phoenix Suns: +900 (9 to 1)
• Dallas Mavericks: +1400 (14 to 1)
• Denver Nuggets: +1400
• Los Angeles Lakers: +1400
• Memphis Grizzlies: +1400
• Miami Heat: +1400
• Philadelphia 76ers: +1400
• New Orleans Pelicans: +4000
• Utah Jazz: +4000
• Chicago Bulls: +6600
• Minnesota Timberwolves: +6600
• Toronto Raptors: +6600
• Atlanta Hawks: +8000
• Charlotte Hornets: +10000
• Cleveland Cavaliers: +10000
• Portland Trail Blazers: +10000
• Indiana Pacers: +25000
• New York Knicks: +25000
• San Antonio Spurs: +25000
• Washington Wizards: +25000
• Detroit Pistons: +75000
• Sacramento Kings: +75000
• Oklahoma City Thunder: +100000
• Houston Rockets: +200000
• Orlando Magic: +200000

With those odds I'd say go with Milwuakee. Giannis is in his prime, Middleton and Jrue have at least one more season at the height of their powers. They have both the confidence that they know they can win it all, and the hunger after getting knocked out in a game 7. As long as those three are healthy I think they'll win the East.

[tommy]

Suns jump out to me as the weird one... they seem to be one of the teams in the West that is poised to get worse while other teams like the Mavs and Clippers get better. Heat are probably a little low considering last season's result.

Interesting that Lakers and Nets had similarly disappointing seasons after being the favorites, and one team was punished much more in the odds than the other for it. I think I agree with it, but still interesting.

Laker number is crazy. It was crazy this year too, for a team as old as they were. Predictably, injuries happened. Now they are a year older and presumably even more injury prone. And the rest of that old roster isn't nearly good enough to compensate when LeBron and/or Day-to-Davis are out. I knew the Davis trade was a huge mistake the day they made it. Yeah, they got the title in the bubble, but it's haunting the Lakers now.

[Steven43]

With those odds I'd say go with Milwuakee. Giannis is in his prime, Middleton and Jrue have at least one more season at the height of their powers. They have both the confidence that they know they can win it all, and the hunger after getting knocked out in a game 7. As long as those three are healthy I think they'll win the East.

Makes sense to me, unfortunately.

[SouthernDukie]

This is what makes next year so intriguing. You could make a legitimate case for at least half a dozen teams winning the championship.

Right now there’s no way I’d hazard to guess as to who comes out of the East. If the Nets run it back one more time and have a healthy Ben Simmons then they should have a great shot. If not then I think it’s a crap shoot between Milwaukee, Boston, Philadelphia and Miami. And then out West I do think we’ll hear more from Memphis, Phoenix, and Dallas. And you can never count out the Lakers (unfortunately). So GS is no guarantee to repeat. Not by a long shot.

[kidA]

With last night's end of the NBA season (congrats to Steph and the Dubs), it is time to turn our focus to next year. This will be the thread we use for talk about free agency, trades, and other NBA moves that happen over the summer.

I'll get it started with this list from BetMGM of the odds to win the 2023 NBA title. It should come as little surprise that this year's finals participants are at the head of the line:

• Golden State Warriors: +550 (11 to 2)
• Boston Celtics: +650 (13 to 2)
• Brooklyn Nets: +700 (7 to 1)
• LA Clippers: +700 (7 to 1)
• Milwaukee Bucks: +800 (8 to 1)
• Phoenix Suns: +900 (9 to 1)
• Dallas Mavericks: +1400 (14 to 1)
• Denver Nuggets: +1400
• Los Angeles Lakers: +1400
• Memphis Grizzlies: +1400
• Miami Heat: +1400
• Philadelphia 76ers: +1400
• New Orleans Pelicans: +4000
• Utah Jazz: +4000
• Chicago Bulls: +6600
• Minnesota Timberwolves: +6600
• Toronto Raptors: +6600
• Atlanta Hawks: +8000
• Charlotte Hornets: +10000
• Cleveland Cavaliers: +10000
• Portland Trail Blazers: +10000
• Indiana Pacers: +25000
• New York Knicks: +25000
• San Antonio Spurs: +25000
• Washington Wizards: +25000
• Detroit Pistons: +75000
• Sacramento Kings: +75000
• Oklahoma City Thunder: +100000
• Houston Rockets: +200000
• Orlando Magic: +200000

I’m not a gambler, so could somebody please explain the “+number” odds to me. 11 to 2, 13 to 2, 7 to 1, these odds I get, but that other metric (eg, +550) is lost on me. Guidance would be most appreciated. Thanks. Not asking for a friend…

[JasonEvans]

I’m not a gambler, so could somebody please explain the “+number” odds to me. 11 to 2, 13 to 2, 7 to 1, these odds I get, but that other metric (eg, +550) is lost on me. Guidance would be most appreciated. Thanks. Not asking for a friend…

The +xxx are what you win if you wager $100. So, +550 means you win $550 on a $100 wager. Put another way, those are 11-to-2 odds. Similarly, +800 means 8-to-1 odds.

The casinos want to tell you what you win if you make a wager, so they list odds as +xxx, not x-to-x. I copied a list of odds that were +xxx and then typed in the x-to-x conversion for the first half dozen or so to show folks what it meant. If you want I can convert the rest of them but I think it is pretty obvious. The Hawks at +8000 are 80-1, the Spurs at +25000 are 250-1.

Does that explain it for ya? I am here for your degenerate gambling education

[jimsumner]

I love the idea of an off-season NBA thread, although we could have given the Celtics a decent time to mourn.

But looking at an entire off season with a draft, trades, free-agent signings, unexpected retirements, equally unexpected injuries still to come and the idea of actually paying attention to these odds seems like a waste of valuable leisure time. IMO.

[kidA]

The +xxx are what you win if you wager $100. So, +550 means you win $550 on a $100 wager. Put another way, those are 11-to-2 odds. Similarly, +800 means 8-to-1 odds.

The casinos want to tell you what you win if you make a wager, so they list odds as +xxx, not x-to-x. I copied a list of odds that were +xxx and then typed in the x-to-x conversion for the first half dozen or so to show folks what it meant. If you want I can convert the rest of them but I think it is pretty obvious. The Hawks at +8000 are 80-1, the Spurs at +25000 are 250-1.

Does that explain it for ya? I am here for your degenerate gambling education

Perfecto, thanks. I’m gonna see if I can get this educational nugget added to my Duke transcript (though I am pretty sure the papyrus upon which is written has long since disintegrated)

[JasonEvans]

Perfecto, thanks. I’m gonna see if I can get this educational nugget added to my Duke transcript (though I am pretty sure the papyrus upon which is written has long since disintegrated)

Am I a professor of gambling now? Sweet!!!