2022-23 MBB Preseason rankings

[CDu]

I would much rather see Jeremy averaging 6apg than 15ppg. And so would his teammates.

12ppg and 6apg would be just about the perfect stat line for our junior captain.

6apg for him would be a huge jump but he should be our number one playmaker and he’s got the ability to break down most any defender with the dribble. It’s shifting the mindset from always getting to the rim to either dishing to a big or kicking out for an open 3 as the defense breaks down.

I would love for Roach to average 12 and 6, which would basically make him sophomore year Tre Jones. I'm just not sure that's realistic. He's never been a high-assist-total player. Even in high school, he was more of a scorer than a passer. I feel like a more realistic hope would be something along the lines of a 13 and 4 type of player.

And the ball is going to be in Whitehead's hands a LOT next year too. I would expect the combo to top 7.5 assists per game, but I wouldn't expect either to average 5 assists per game individually.

[Phredd3]

I smell a pie bet, but am pretty sure CDu doesn’t do those. So Phredd3, will you bet a pie that Roach averages less than 13 ppg? If he averages 13 or more, I win and if not you win.

No. If you want me to put my money where my mouth is, my mouth is saying that Roach won't double his scoring output to 16+ ppg and lead the team in scoring. I'd put a pie on that. But, like CDu, I think 13ppg is a perfectly reasonable projection.

[johnb]

One problem with the offseason is the lack of actual information, so we're left comparing our own players to each other in a zero sum game in which we have to divide up 76 points, 16 assists, and 200 minutes. That leaves us dragging points and assists from Dariq to give to Jeremy (or vice versa).

National rankings seems similar. We're in a cluster of top 7-12 teams that seem a solid bet for a final 4 in 9 months, and that makes for a presumably fun season for us. So it can be fun to compare us to similarly-talented teams, but it'd still be a coin flip when we play Kansas in November or Kentucky in April.

Especially when anticipating our coming season, we have problems. Not only are we using variables with huge unknowns and a good bit of elasticity (at best), we also end up critiquing our own guys in a potentially negative or limiting way. The coaches may have a specific plan for next year's team, including likely roles--and therefore likely ranges for ppg, mpg, and apg--but I'd like to think that they are going to spend much of the season experimenting with the roster and seeing what shakes out. And if the coaches don't know, I'm skeptical that I would have much useful perspective on whether Grandison will be starting in January, or whether Jeremy shoots 32 or 38% from the 3 point line.

Having said that, I have confidence that Scheyer & Co. are going to provide immediately elite bench coaching; that our top 8 (9?) will get plenty of opportunity to contribute to the team and showcase their own skillsets; that I'll get to watch them at least weekly on tv for several months; that three will be 1st round picks next June; and that we'll win 30+ games. But then I get amused at my confidence in 3rd hand info.

[SkyBrickey]

In the "OAD era," Duke has had 14 top five freshmen (not including the three on next year's team). Of those, only three have scored fewer than 15.5 ppg (and two of those three suffered from injury problems, while the other scored 13.3 ppg).

Player			FGA pg	FTA pg	ppg		Others
K Irving (#2)		9.5	6.5	17.5		N Smith; K Singler; S Curry; A Dawkins; Mas Plumlee; R Kelly; Mi Plumlee
A Rivers (#2)		11.8	5.4	15.5		S Curry; A Dawkins; Mas Plumlee; R Kelly; Mi Plumlee; T Thornton; Q Cook
J Parker (#3)		14.3	6.1	19.1		R Hood; R Sulaimon; A Dawkins; Q Cook; T Thornton; A Jefferson
J Okafor (#1)		11.1	5.1	17.3		Q Cook; J Winslow; Ty Jones; A Jefferson; M Jones; R Sulaimon/G Allen; Mar Plumlee
B Ingram (#4)		13.4	4.7	17.3		G Allen; L Kennard; A Jefferson; M Jones; Mar Plumlee; D Thornton
H Giles (#2)		3.0	0.9	3.9		J Tatum; G Allen; L Kennard; A Jefferson; M Jones; F Jackson; C Jeter
J Tatum (#3)		12.6	4.8	16.8		G Allen; L Kennard; A Jefferson; M Jones; F Jackson; H Giles/C Jeter
M Bagley (#1)		13.3	6.3	21.0		G Allen; G Trent; W Carter; T Duval; M Bolden; J DeLaurier; A O'Connell
T Duval (#5)		9.4	2.4	10.3		M Bagley; G Allen; G Trent; W Carter; M Bolden; J DeLaurier; A O'Connell
R Barrett (#1)		18.5	5.9	22.6		Z Williamson; C Reddish; Tre Jones; M Bolden; J DeLaurier; A O'Connell; J White
C Reddish (#2)		12.0	3.2	13.5		Z Williamson; R Barrett; Tre Jones; M Bolden; J DeLaurier; A O'Connell; J White
Zion (#4)		13.2	6.2	22.6		R Barrett; C Reddish; Tre Jones; M Bolden; J DeLaurier; A O'Connell; J White
V Carey (#5)		11.1	7.0	17.8		Tre Jones; C Stanley; M Hurt; W Moore; J Goldwire; A O'Connell; J DeLaurier; J White; J Baker
P Banchero (#2)		13.2	4.8	17.2		W Moore; T Keels; A Griffin; M Williams; J Roach; J Baker; T John

Even accepting that Lively will score less because he's not a high-volume shooter, both Whitehead and Filipowski were high-volume shooters in high school (as was Proctor), and I expect them both to take 10 to 13 shots per game and to get to the line 4 to 6 times per game, meaning they both have a high probability of topping 14 ppg.

Also, while I agree we'll have 6 or 7 guys who might top 20 points in any particular game, I'm not sure how unusual that is. Here are all the Duke teams since 2010-11 with how many players scored 19+ points (for some reason, a lot of guys had a season-high of exactly 19) in a game that season:

2022: 6 (plus another guy who scored 20+ at one point in his career)
2021: 6 (plus two other guys who scored 20+ at one point in their careers)
2020: 6 (plus 2)
2019: 5 (plus 2)
2018: 5 (plus 3)
2017: 5 (plus 2)
2016: 7 (plus 2)
2015: 6 (plus 3)
2014: 5 (plus 5)
2013: 5 (plus 3)
2012: 5 (plus 2)
2011: 7

So all those teams had 5 to 7 guys who scored 19+ points that season, and if you count bench guys who scored 20+ later (or earlier) in their careers as guys who "could score 20+", then every team had at least seven such guys. And that balance/depth didn't keep the vast majority of top five freshmen from scoring 15+ ppg.

Even putting that aside, looking at the "supporting casts" in the main list above, I don't think next year's team is significantly deeper (from a scoring perspective) than most (any?) of those surrounding top five freshmen in the past.

The only other time we had 3 Top 5 recruits, they averaged 22, 22 and 13. I think this team’s scoring will be distributed a lot more evenly from 1-7 as I just don’t think there’s a giant difference in scoring between Whitehead at the top and perhaps Proctor and Mitchell at the end of the rotation. That’s my range of 14 ppg for Whitehead and 7 ppg for Proctor/Mitchell. Roach, Flip, Lively, Grandison will all get their shots and points.

When you start to distribute the scoring, if Whitehead and Flip score more like traditional top 5 recruits then those points are likely coming off the board for Grandison, Proctor or Mitchell.

It's probably wishful thinking on my part, but it would be a different kind of Duke team to have 5 double digit scorers with Proctor and Mitchell as high single digit scorers in 6th and 7th man roles. That balance would be fun and could be a real strength of this team.

Proctor, especially, seems like a guy who will get his shots and not defer when he’s in the game. Grandison is a proven shooter who I expect us to find for open 3s. And Mitchell seems like an athletic dirty work type of player who will earn minutes and get his points in a variety of ways. If Im right, that will be more scoring than we usually get 5-7. But a lot will depend on how the rotation shakes out….

[cato]

No. If you want me to put my money where my mouth is, my mouth is saying that Roach won't double his scoring output to 16+ ppg and lead the team in scoring. I'd put a pie on that. But, like CDu, I think 13ppg is a perfectly reasonable projection.

I agree that it is unlikely that Roach scores 16 ppg, although I do think that’s possible. I picked 13 ppg for the offered bet because it feels almost equally likely that Roach is just below that at 12._ ppg or at or above 13 ppg.

[Phredd3]

I agree that it is unlikely that Roach scores 16 ppg, although I do think that’s possible. I picked 13 ppg for the offered bet because it feels almost equally likely that Roach is just below that at 12._ ppg or at or above 13 ppg.

I agree with you. I don't generally make wagers unless I feel the odds are in my favor. And even then, I usually lose.

[SkyBrickey]

I would take the under on Roach at 13 ppg. There are too many other scorers in the lineup. If he scores 13+ ppg, I think it will be from a big jump in 3 pointer volume and conversion rate which I’d be surprised to see happen.

As another reference point, Tyus Jones in the best Duke PG season in recent times averaged 11.8ppg and 5.6apg.

[Kedsy]

As another reference point, Tyus Jones in the best Duke PG season in recent times averaged 11.8ppg and 5.6apg.

Tre Jones, a pass-first PG who couldn't shoot as a freshman, averaged 16.2 ppg and 6.4 apg as a sophomore. So (a) I wouldn't rule out a shoot-first PG like Jeremy Roach from scoring points; and (b) not sure Tyus Jones actually had the best Duke PG season in recent times.

[cato]

I would take the under on Roach at 13 ppg. There are too many other scorers in the lineup. If he scores 13+ ppg, I think it will be from a big jump in 3 pointer volume and conversion rate which I’d be surprised to see happen.

As another reference point, Tyus Jones in the best Duke PG season in recent times averaged 11.8ppg and 5.6apg.

That’s why I thought it was a good line. Pie bet?

[SkyBrickey]

Tre Jones, a pass-first PG who couldn't shoot as a freshman, averaged 16.2 ppg and 6.4 apg as a sophomore. So (a) I wouldn't rule out a shoot-first PG like Jeremy Roach from scoring points; and (b) not sure Tyus Jones actually had the best Duke PG season in recent times.

Not best statistically but best in the sense he led a talented team to a title as a ball dominant PG.

I agree that you can’t rule out Jeremy making a jump to the Tre-like numbers at 16ppg. But the 5th, 6th and 7th leading scorers on that team were Moore, Baker and O’Connell.

I hope and expect this team will get a lot more production out of Grandison, Proctor and Mitchell which will flatten out the distribution of scoring with the top 4.

[SkyBrickey]

That’s why I thought it was a good line. Pie bet?

I don’t bet on sports but I do like your line. 👊 12-13ppg feels about right to me at maybe 33 mpg.

[HayYou]

With Roach, it is as much about efficiency as total PPG. A relatively inefficient 15ppg would be far worse than a relatively efficient 12ppg.

Also, as much as I loved me some Tre and Tyus, none played with a true rim runner. Zion was one, obviously, but by late Feb teams had sold out on not guarding Duke shooters and just loading the paint, making rim running lanes scarce for Zion. Or any other players. Further, TJones part 2 was such a horrible shooter as a frosh, that teams played so far off him, driving and dishing became problematic.

Next year, Roach is likely to be good enough from 3 that teams will have to really keep an eye on him out there. Which will make driving easier. And he was driving more towards the end of last season. And this year, both Lively and Whitehead and Mitchell are likely to be better rim runners than anyone the Jones bros played with (excluding Zion, but see above why he barely qualifies given the talent holes from the perimeter while he was here).

Further, if Roach wants to play in the NBA, he's got to show 3 things next year.

1. Ability to be a quality defender.
2. Ability to be credible threat from 3pt land.
3. Ability to penetrate into the paint (if not all the way to the rim) and lob the ball to a finisher.

While there is some sliding relative to each of the 3 things I mentioned, the high likelihood is that Roach will have to prove proficiency at all 3 things to some level. Obviously, anyone who shoots 45% from 3 on several makes in a consistent manner can slide in other realms. But I don't expect that. As such, Roach knows he has to make shots, and get others the ball in shooting position.

Frankly, I think he might get a lot of assists by penetrating and either lobbing it to Lively or kicking it out to Flip or Whitehead. There'll be some nights where that goes wrong, but other nights where gets a bunch of assists.

So, IMO, 4-5apg isn't that outlandish. But don't expect consistency. There might be a night where he gets 8-9 assists, and another night where he gets 1-2.