Joey Baker transfers to Michigan!

[CDu]

I'm shocked he didn't transfer after the season. When he committed to a fifth season, I was convinced Baker loved Duke, wanted a Duke graduate degree, and wanted to play a leadership role moreso than looking forward to playing a key role in next year's season.

I am even more shocked today. Of course, every player can change their mind and priorities change, but I still believe there is something out there we don't know. Maybe one of Schutt/Blakes are rotation-ready and would place out Baker. I have no idea. But again, the timing is very surprising.

I think it's much more likely that he thought he had a path to a key role next year. And that with Green showing up (either today or this week) the picture got more clear to him that he wouldn't have the role he'd hoped. Prior to Green showing up there was still the chance.

Schutt hasn't arrived yet, so clearly it wouldn't involve Schutt.

But the Green news today is big news (it's the first major sign of a shift towards us actually having that starter in place), and as such I don't find the timing to be very surprising even though the overall situation is surprising. Yes, I realize you assumed it would happen, and I was confident it would happen too. But many here aren't/weren't as convinced, and it's quite conceivable that Baker was holding out hope.

I think the "Baker really really loved Duke and mistakenly really thought he might have a chance to play a key role, and now is getting the stark realization that it probably wasn't going to happen" theory makes perfect sense.

I agree it surprising. But there was enough of a news item today that, along with the original surprise that he stayed, I can see a perfectly plausible scenario as to why it happened now.

[Acymetric]

I don't doubt that he could command a little Bojangles' money, but how would a player of his caliber get "school changing" money?

Most teams are not loaded with NBA talent the way Duke is, Baker is likely good enough to be a meaningful contributor elsewhere (he might even start for some P5 programs). I suspect there are lesser players who have received substantial sums so far.

That would be tampering. Doesn't matter if it were to happen with an elite player or a bench warmer, that would still be tampering, and likely lead to a bit of nastiness with multiple parties.

I mean, it is happening all over the country. Will any of it be punished? Maybe, but it is happening.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Most teams are not loaded with NBA talent the way Duke is, Baker is likely good enough to be a meaningful contributor elsewhere (he might even start for some P5 programs). I suspect there are lesser players who have received substantial sums so far.



I mean, it is happening all over the country. Will any of it be punished? Maybe, but it is happening.

Answer is 'no' until the NCAA can provide better NIL guidelines.

And this is the NCAA we're talking about, so it'll take years and likely a decade+.

Get ready for tons of tampering!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Most teams are not loaded with NBA talent the way Duke is, Baker is likely good enough to be a meaningful contributor elsewhere (he might even start for some P5 programs). I suspect there are lesser players who have received substantial sums so far.

It would surprise me very much if the Joey Baker that has seen spot minutes in four years at Duke and just had hip surgery were to get starting minutes at a P5 school.

But hey, I was wrong once before. There's always a second time.

[Nugget]

Yes, we have been pursuing. But we hadn't had any success. We've never landed an impact player in the transfer portal (note: yes, I'm aware that McLeod, Curry, Jones, and Hood were impact transfers, but they came before the portal existed). And even Green was/is considered by many to be as likely to go to Iowa State as to Duke. So it's very conceivable that Baker, who clearly loves Duke, may have been holding out hope that a transfer wouldn't materialize and he'd have a shot at a starting gig as a super-senior.



Perhaps because he really didn't want to leave Duke, and really wanted to believe he had a shot at a starter's role.



I'm sure there were explicit conversations. Something to the effect of "here's who we know we have; here's who we're looking at; there is an opportunity but you'll really have to earn it, especially if we get Keels or a transfer".



And again, I'm sure they offered him a chance to have his senior night. And I'm sure he declined it, thinking he was coming back.

This all seems exactly right. I'd imagine that Baker was thinking there was a pretty good chance Keels would stay in the draft and that we wouldn't get AJ Green (given that his dad is on staff at Iowa St.) so he'd have a cleaner shot at meaningful PT next year. So, it seems a very fair inference that Green taking the step of making an official visit really could change things for Joey.

And, while it may be sad for Joey that he didn't have a Senior Night, I'd surmise with about 99% certainty that this will have zero effect on recruiting against Duke going forward.

It was, however, mildly noteworthy that the Go Duke Press Release quotes Coach K but not Scheyer -- not really sure what (if anything) to make of that.

[HayYou]

Could it be as simple as the coaching staff? Maybe Baker was close to Nolan, and isn't as juiced about Lucas. I could easily see how Nolan would be a guy who preached sticking it out and working hard, etc.

Without him, maybe Baker wasn't feeling the new staff.

[Messimorgan17]

This all seems exactly right. I'd imagine that Baker was thinking there was a pretty good chance Keels would stay in the draft and that we wouldn't get AJ Green (given that his dad is on staff at Iowa St.) so he'd have a cleaner shot at meaningful PT next year. So, it seems a very fair inference that Green taking the step of making an official visit really could change things for Joey.

And, while it may be sad for Joey that he didn't have a Senior Night, I'd surmise with about 99% certainty that this will have zero effect on recruiting against Duke going forward.

It was, however, mildly noteworthy that the Go Duke Press Release quotes Coach K but not Scheyer -- not really sure what (if anything) to make of that.

Coach k was his coach for the duration of his playing career. He never played for Scheyer. Also praise from the GOAT is more meaningful (at least for now).

[dukelifer]

Could it be as simple as the coaching staff? Maybe Baker was close to Nolan, and isn't as juiced about Lucas. I could easily see how Nolan would be a guy who preached sticking it out and working hard, etc.

Without him, maybe Baker wasn't feeling the new staff.

Seems like a big stretch that Baker, who is still on crutches, is somehow influenced by a guy that is still moving to Durham. I think it is more likely that some other player is coming to Duke.

[MartyClark]

Seems like a big stretch that Baker, who is still on crutches, is somehow influenced by a guy that is still moving to Durham. I think it is more likely that some other player is coming to Duke.

Huh? I don't understand. What do you think is happening?

[MCFinARL]

You can't force someone to have a senior night. Baker was a true senior. I'm all but 100% certain they offered him the chance to have a senior night. It was his choice. In hindsight, it doesn't appear that he made the right choice. But there is only so much a program can do.



Yes, I believe you are catastrophizing something way more than it really should be.

Is it a great look? Nah. But it's an easily explainable situation. And one that I can't imagine has any impact on the recruiting trail.

Yes, I agree--if all coaches have to use against Duke in negative recruiting is that Joey Baker didn't have a senior night, I am not too concerned. They are grasping at straws.

[CDu]

Huh? I don't understand. What do you think is happening?

Per 247, AJ Green (one of the top remaining transfers available and one whom Duke had expressed interest) is doing an on-campus visit at Duke (possibly today; report came out today). That would be the implied connection. No guarantee of course. But Green's arrival would dash any hopes of Baker playing a major role next year, as he'd be battling with Schutt and Blakes for any backup SG minutes and with Mitchell for any backup SF minutes.

[Music man55]

Sad to see Joey go. Seemed like a great young man and a great teammate. I am going to miss him. Something had to have happened to lead him to transfer now. Guess he knew he just wasn’t going to get much playing time. Can’t blame him. Good luck Joey, wherever you land.

[azzefkram]

Confused by the timing but I wish Joey well.

[Chicago 1995]

But it's not like us pursuing a starting quality guard from the transfer portal materialized out of thin air... it's been widely reported that we were looking to add such a player, and have been connected to Green for weeks now. I don't see why Joey wouldn't have entered the portal before the deadline if this was the case, especially considering you can withdraw and return (plenty of players have been doing so). If this decision is based on not having a route to starter's minutes, the writing has been on the wall there for long enough that this timing doesn't make sense.

Again, Duke went out of its way to announce Joey's return, which has to mean there were explicit conversations between the staff and him about his role next season. And if there was ANY chance of this happening, Duke should've given Joey his senior night. It's a really, really bad look for him to not have that experience in a Duke uniform regardless of the reasoning why.

Why the presumption that Duke did anything wrong? Seems like the logical explanation here is that Joey changed his mind, not that Duke did something.

[Chicago 1995]

Because Trevor returning isn't all that likely. And contrary to what is said on this board, Joey would have a much better read on that situation than anyone on this board.

What Joey didn't know until recently was the transfer situation. I theorized that the uncertainty on Duke's roster, combined with the talent on boarding, would make it tricky for Duke to get a transfer. At least, to get the type of transfer who'd eat up minutes and shots.

But if that transfer is likely, well, that changes Joey's math.

People have been talking about and linking potential wing transfers to Duke since well before last season ended and long, long before Keels even declared for the draft. It's ludicrous to think that Joey Baker thought until AJ Green showed up today that he'd have a free ride to playing time next year. If that's really what happened, that's all on Joey for being oblivious.

[flyingdutchdevil]

People have been talking about and linking potential wing transfers to Duke since well before last season ended and long, long before Keels even declared for the draft. It's ludicrous to think that Joey Baker thought until AJ Green showed up today that he'd have a free ride to playing time next year. If that's really what happened, that's all on Joey for being oblivious.

Yup. That's why the timing surprising.

Anyhow, I wish Baker the best. He always came across as a great teammate and great representative of the school.

[cato]

I’ve been reading the discussion of the upcoming draft and the transfer thread, and realized what changed: Griffin has received feedback that is not what he expected, and he decided that he is better off returning to Duke to work on his game and secure a spot in the lottery next year. AJ texted Joey right after informing Jon, and Joey decided to move on.

[Chicago 1995]

Yup. That's why the timing surprising.

Anyhow, I wish Baker the best. He always came across as a great teammate and great representative of the school.

Agreed as to Joey. If he wants to play meaningful minutes, this was the best decision for him, even with the weird timing. As is noted above, this might be driven by things other than basketball. And if it is driven by basketball and recruiting competition at his position, then it's probably just as well to part ways.

[johnb]

It’s a little odd that some of us are assigning blame to Duke when Baker is the one who announced a transfer in mid-May; there’s a reason there are deadlines, and he limped past it, which may be completely fine with Duke but could conceivably leave the team a bit short handed. He might’ve hoped Trevor would go pro and that Scheyer would entrust him with 30 mins/game as the 2G starter, but that seems like wishful thinking.

Baker’s been around the program for 4 years, and he knows exactly how Duke approaches recruiting and roster development: ruthlessly. No way is Scheyer pinning the success of his 1st team on a guy who’s never played a lot of minutes and is now on crutches.

My hunch is that no one is at fault. Scheyer is probably confident that he can get Green AND someone else who will be part of the core backcourt/wing rotation. That might be Keels, might be someone else.

Scheyer and Lucas were, separately, touted as the 2 best recruiters in the country. They can document that anyone in Duke’s rotation will get plenty of prime time action, lots of great coaching, oodles of Brotherhood, solid NIL, and be carefully evaluated by NBA scouts. I’ll be surprised if we aren’t surprised to the upside within a month.

That would leave a battle for time at the edge of the rotation among a few very talented guys who just aren’t (yet) exceptional, at least compared to the NBA talent in the starting 5 or 6.

Scheyer may have explained this to Baker, and that led to a mutually satisfactory parting of the ways. It’s bittersweet, of course, since the fairytale ending would be different, but it’s probably acceptable to everyone concerned.

Oh, and I’ve never been especially sentimental about senior night. He got to be captain for a final 4 Duke team and got a Duke degree. That’s not a bad 4 years!

[scottdude8]

Why the presumption that Duke did anything wrong? Seems like the logical explanation here is that Joey changed his mind, not that Duke did something.

I didn't phrase that post the most eloquently. The most likely scenario is of course the one that you described; however, the perception in some circles will be "Scheyer recruited over his returning fifth year senior!" and/or "Coach K hijacked a kid's senior night for his own retirement party!" Again, the likelihood is that those statements are either flat wrong or, at worst, major exaggerations, but it doesn't make me like that perception any more.

All that, plus I'm just personally heartbroken that Joey missed out on his senior night.