Joey Baker transfers to Michigan!

[scottdude8]

I mean, the most logical answer seems super straightforward: Baker was hopeful that he'd have a bigger role next year. And with the news about Green coming in (especially if the signs are that Green will commit), it probably became crystal clear that Baker's desired role wasn't going to materialize: Green brings everything Baker could bring, but better and with more other skills.

I'm honestly not sure why he didn't enter the portal earlier, as it seemed clear to all of us that his role was going to be a backup again next year (one way or another). But maybe he didn't see it that way, thinking that with Keels going he had a chance to start.

But it's not like us pursuing a starting quality guard from the transfer portal materialized out of thin air... it's been widely reported that we were looking to add such a player, and have been connected to Green for weeks now. I don't see why Joey wouldn't have entered the portal before the deadline if this was the case, especially considering you can withdraw and return (plenty of players have been doing so). If this decision is based on not having a route to starter's minutes, the writing has been on the wall there for long enough that this timing doesn't make sense.

Again, Duke went out of its way to announce Joey's return, which has to mean there were explicit conversations between the staff and him about his role next season. And if there was ANY chance of this happening, Duke should've given Joey his senior night. It's a really, really bad look for him to not have that experience in a Duke uniform regardless of the reasoning why.

[Truth&Justise]

My pet theory: Baker would have had more success as a stretch-four rather than a full-time perimeter player. It would hide his lack of quickness on the perimeter (which other teams regularly targeted) and he still has size enough (6'6" 200lb) to hold his own. But Duke had better players in those roles in 2019 (Zion), 2021 (Hurt) and 2022 (Paolo). I'm sure we tried him next to Carey up front at some point in 2020, but Justin Robinson was evidently a better fit.

Anywho, if he is moving on, I wish him luck.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Firstly, I highly doubt we get BOTH Green and Keels. I strongly suspect we get one of them though.

But even in the highly-unlikely scenario that we get both Keels and Green, it wouldn't be a case of "kicking Baker to the curb." We have enough scholarships for all 3 to play next year. It's just that Baker would in that scenario want to go somewhere where he could play.

Scheyer's job is to try to build the best team he can build. If he feels that Baker isn't good enough to be an ideal option as a starter or key reserve, then it is in Scheyer's (and Duke's) best interest to address that via recruiting. It would be poor form to take away a scholarship from Baker, but not poor form to bring in as talented a team as possible within the available scholarships.

But something must have changed, and that's where I'm somewhat aligning with CB&B.

The expectation - which the fans clearly knew as well - is either Keels comes back or we're going after the transfer market really hard. And I think it's fair to say that Keels and Green are mutually exclusive. We're not getting both. Green would be doing himself no favors coming to Duke just to come off the bench (or Keels coming back to Duke and coming off the bench).

Was the coaching staff not clear with Baker and his role next season? Are we pursuing another transfer? Are Schutt/Blakes better than expected?

It is weird. I will say that.

[CDu]

The only other scenario that makes rough sense to me is if Joey thought he was going to get the chance to start at the 3 (with Whitehead at the 2) after Trevor went to the draft. But that doesn't make any sense to me considering we've been active with all the top portal guys who could play the 2 since the end of the season. So this scenario would have required a major miscommunication between Joey and the staff, which would be really, really unfortunate.

Or it could simply be that Baker didn't put it all together until it got crystallized today. Yes, we've recruited other guys. But none of those guys have shown up on campus. So maybe Baker felt he would hold out hope for a starting spot until it became clear that was no longer an option.

Is it possible that there was a miscommunication? Sure. But that seems unlikely to me. My guess is the communication was something along the line of "there will be minutes available for someone to take, but you will be competing with Schutt and possibly one of Keels or a transfer for one of those spots." Which is honest, and maybe Baker was hopeful that "possibly" would turn into "but didn't wind up happening."

That said, I'll say it again: Joey Baker not getting his senior day, especially in an era where four-year seniors are so rare, is a miscarriage of justice, and (less importantly) will fuel the "Coach K's swan song came at the cost of his players" crowd for another few months.

It's only a "miscarriage of justice" if it was a decision made by Coach K at the expense of Baker's wishes. I can't imagine that Baker wasn't offered the opportunity to have his senior night too. But I suspect that what happened was he thought he was going to return, and thus turned down the opportunity to have his senior night this year. And then only more recently did he change his mind to look elsewhere. I can't imagine that Coach K would ever put himself before the players. So the logical explanation is that the opportunity was offered and Baker declined.

[CDu]

But something must have changed, and that's where I'm somewhat aligning with CB&B.

The expectation - which the fans clearly knew as well - is either Keels comes back or we're going after the transfer market really hard. And I think it's fair to say that Keels and Green are mutually exclusive. We're not getting both. Green would be doing himself no favors coming to Duke just to come off the bench (or Keels coming back to Duke and coming off the bench).

Was the coaching staff not clear with Baker and his role next season? Are we pursuing another transfer? Are Schutt/Blakes better than expected?

It is weird. I will say that.

I don't know that it has been universally expected that we'd have Keels or a transfer clearly better than Baker. I mean, I and others have suspected it, but I don't know that it was a given. Maybe Baker felt that as long as the door was open, he'd hold out hope for that starting spot.

And if the "something must have changed" was Green arriving and confirming he's going to join, that would do it.

Honestly, I don't find it all that weird. I'm sure Baker has loved his time at Duke and had dreams of a big year next year. And perhaps today that dream was quashed, either by confirmation that Green is going to arrive or (less likely) that Keels is returning.

It could be something else entirely as well. But I don't see that it has to be something weird going on.

[Wander]

The bolded is the only way this makes sense, in my mind. If one of Keels and Green are going to be on the 22 squad, Joey would still have the inside track for bench minutes at the 3, and likely some at the 2 as well. That seemed to be the expectation for the past month-plus. The only major change would be if Green has agreed to come and be a sixth man behind Keels.

I disagree. Baker's defense was bad enough such that it would not surprise me if guys other than Keels or Green move ahead of him on the depth chart next year. Not a given, but I would not be shocked.

I don't see this as a sign at all that we're going to get both Keels and Green.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Or it could simply be that Baker didn't put it all together until it got crystallized today. Yes, we've recruited other guys. But none of those guys have shown up on campus. So maybe Baker felt he would hold out hope for a starting spot until it became clear that was no longer an option.

Is it possible that there was a miscommunication? Sure. But that seems unlikely to me. My guess is the communication was something along the line of "there will be minutes available for someone to take, but you will be competing with Schutt and possibly one of Keels or a transfer for one of those spots." Which is honest, and maybe Baker was hopeful that "possibly" would turn into "but didn't wind up happening."



It's only a "miscarriage of justice" if it was a decision made by Coach K at the expense of Baker's wishes. I can't imagine that Baker wasn't offered the opportunity to have his senior night too. But I suspect that what happened was he thought he was going to return, and thus turned down the opportunity to have his senior night this year. And then only more recently did he change his mind to look elsewhere. I can't imagine that Coach K would ever put himself before the players. So the logical explanation is that the opportunity was offered and Baker declined.

I just don't see this as a possibility. The only way this happened is if a) the coaching staff over promised or b) Joey actually believed he had a shot at the starting 2 next year. If it's a), shame on the coaching staff. But I highly doubt that as I'm sure Coach K AND Scheyer both spoke to Joey.

And b)? The dude barely played in the ACC and NCAA Tournaments as a senior. And he would expect to play a big role next year? I don't buy it...

[scottdude8]

It's only a "miscarriage of justice" if it was a decision made by Coach K at the expense of Baker's wishes. I can't imagine that Baker wasn't offered the opportunity to have his senior night too. But I suspect that what happened was he thought he was going to return, and thus turned down the opportunity to have his senior night this year. And then only more recently did he change his mind to look elsewhere. I can't imagine that Coach K would ever put himself before the players. So the logical explanation is that the opportunity was offered and Baker declined.

Fair. I went a bit overboard with my wording there. What I can say confidently is that it's a horrible look for the program for Joey to have never had a senior night. Even if things went down the way you outline, which I agree is the most probable scenario, if I were a part of the program I'd turn to Joey and say, "If there's even a miniscule chance you won't be here next year, you shouldn't lose the chance at your senior night. You deserve to be recognized for what you've given to this program." So while the reality probably isn't as bad as the look, I would still argue that the program is at fault to some degree here no matter what went on behind the scenes.

Rightly or wrongly, opposing coaches now can say to potential recruits, "Duke doesn't appreciate four year players, they're only interested in churning out NBA talent... look what happened to Joey Baker." Again, I am not saying this is justified, but it's the reality of the perception here. We all want potential longer term guys, the Jaylen Blakes and Christian Reeves types, as part of the program, and this doesn't help our appeal with them.

Maybe I'm catastrophizing on the actual impact on the recruiting front in my currently flummoxed state, but there's very little way to view this that isn't a bad look for the program in some way, shape, or form.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

It's only a "miscarriage of justice" if it was a decision made by Coach K at the expense of Baker's wishes. I can't imagine that Baker wasn't offered the opportunity to have his senior night too. But I suspect that what happened was he thought he was going to return, and thus turned down the opportunity to have his senior night this year. And then only more recently did he change his mind to look elsewhere. I can't imagine that Coach K would ever put himself before the players. So the logical explanation is that the opportunity was offered and Baker declined.

Yeah, literally no one outside of the fanatics on this board is going to make that leap. "Joey Baker, transfer" isn't going to be even remotely connected to Senior Day at Cameron.

Sometimes this board tries INCREDIBLY hard to find things to defend.

K's farewell tour was ostentatious at times. Literally no one is going to be thinking about it once next season starts.

[CDu]

But it's not like us pursuing a starting quality guard from the transfer portal materialized out of thin air... it's been widely reported that we were looking to add such a player, and have been connected to Green for weeks now.

Yes, we have been pursuing. But we hadn't had any success. We've never landed an impact player in the transfer portal (note: yes, I'm aware that McLeod, Curry, Jones, and Hood were impact transfers, but they came before the portal existed). And even Green was/is considered by many to be as likely to go to Iowa State as to Duke. So it's very conceivable that Baker, who clearly loves Duke, may have been holding out hope that a transfer wouldn't materialize and he'd have a shot at a starting gig as a super-senior.

I don't see why Joey wouldn't have entered the portal before the deadline if this was the case, especially considering you can withdraw and return (plenty of players have been doing so). If this decision is based on not having a route to starter's minutes, the writing has been on the wall there for long enough that this timing doesn't make sense.

Perhaps because he really didn't want to leave Duke, and really wanted to believe he had a shot at a starter's role.

Again, Duke went out of its way to announce Joey's return, which has to mean there were explicit conversations between the staff and him about his role next season.

I'm sure there were explicit conversations. Something to the effect of "here's who we know we have; here's who we're looking at; there is an opportunity but you'll really have to earn it, especially if we get Keels or a transfer".

And if there was ANY chance of this happening, Duke should've given Joey his senior night. It's a really, really bad look for him to not have that experience in a Duke uniform regardless of the reasoning why.

And again, I'm sure they offered him a chance to have his senior night. And I'm sure he declined it, thinking he was coming back.

[willywoody]

Maybe he didn’t get into the grad program he wanted or there is a better fit academically elsewhere. His professional playing career choices are going to be limited and maybe he does not want to play abroad.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Maybe he didn’t get into the grad program he wanted or there is a better fit academically elsewhere. His professional playing career choices are going to be limited and maybe he does not want to play abroad.

This is crazy talk! Everyone on this board knows that every decision made by any Duke basketball player past or present is a BASKETBALL decision! Additionally, it reflects either positively or negatively on the program.

No one has non-basketball career aspirations, family considerations, romantic entanglements, or even hobbies. ALL BASKETBALL ALL THE TIME.

[SouthernDukie]

This is strange, to say the least. When I heard the news that Joey would be coming back for next season, I was absolutely surprised. I had really pegged him as an absolute, sure fire transfer. But with the news that he was returning, I figured he just loved Duke and would be staying no matter what.

And now he’s transferring? I don’t get it at all.

[HayYou]

What is the difference for Joey whether A.J. comes or Trevor stays? That's why him waiting until now is so confusing. At least if he had announced prior, he could move on without sitting. Obviously he still has the option of coming back to Duke, but with him putting this out there now that would seem very unlikely.

Sigh...best wishes at your new school, Joey. Your time at Duke surely has been an interesting one!

Because Trevor returning isn't all that likely. And contrary to what is said on this board, Joey would have a much better read on that situation than anyone on this board.

What Joey didn't know until recently was the transfer situation. I theorized that the uncertainty on Duke's roster, combined with the talent on boarding, would make it tricky for Duke to get a transfer. At least, to get the type of transfer who'd eat up minutes and shots.

But if that transfer is likely, well, that changes Joey's math.

[CDu]

Fair. I went a bit overboard with my wording there. What I can say confidently is that it's a horrible look for the program for Joey to have never had a senior night. Even if things went down the way you outline, which I agree is the most probable scenario, if I were a part of the program I'd turn to Joey and say, "If there's even a miniscule chance you won't be here next year, you shouldn't lose the chance at your senior night. You deserve to be recognized for what you've given to this program." So while the reality probably isn't as bad as the look, I would still argue that the program is at fault to some degree here no matter what went on behind the scenes.

Rightly or wrongly, opposing coaches now can say to potential recruits, "Duke doesn't appreciate four year players, they're only interested in churning out NBA talent... look what happened to Joey Baker." Again, I am not saying this is justified, but it's the reality of the perception here. We all want potential longer term guys, the Jaylen Blakes and Christian Reeves types, as part of the program, and this doesn't help our appeal with them.

You can't force someone to have a senior night. Baker was a true senior. I'm all but 100% certain they offered him the chance to have a senior night. It was his choice. In hindsight, it doesn't appear that he made the right choice. But there is only so much a program can do.

Maybe I'm catastrophizing on the actual impact on the recruiting front in my currently flummoxed state, but there's very little way to view this that isn't a bad look for the program in some way, shape, or form.

Yes, I believe you are catastrophizing something way more than it really should be.

Is it a great look? Nah. But it's an easily explainable situation. And one that I can't imagine has any impact on the recruiting trail.

[scottdude8]

It's goduke.com official, FWIW: https://goduke.com/news/2022/5/18/me...-transfer.aspx

[Matches]

Yeah, literally no one outside of the fanatics on this board is going to make that leap. "Joey Baker, transfer" isn't going to be even remotely connected to Senior Day at Cameron.

Sometimes this board tries INCREDIBLY hard to find things to defend.

This. With all due respect to Baker, who always seemed to be a good teammate and a fine representative of the university- a future recruit asked about him will probably answer “who?” and have little question marks floating over his head.

Dude changed his mind. It happens. Best of luck to him. This isn’t a four-alarm fire.

[HayYou]

I'm not sure this signifies Keels AND a transfer in. Probably one or the other. I really expect Blakes to play solid minutes off the bench next year, with some of those coming alongside Roach. Dariq will play some minutes at SG. I think it is one or the other.

[scottdude8]

Is it a great look? Nah. But it's an easily explainable situation. And one that I can't imagine has any impact on the recruiting trail.

I would agree 100% with you on this if it happened prior to the typical portal deadline, and Duke hadn't made a point of announcing his return. But that announcement, combined with this strange timing (I haven't heard of anyone else entering the portal after the May 1 deadline), make it appear that something weird went on behind the scenes.

You're right that the reality here won't be anywhere near as bad as my initial reaction was. But I think the confluence of circumstances here make this a worse look than your usual transfer, or if Joey had transferred three weeks ago without having a senior night. As always, the reality is probably somewhere in the middle... now that I've vented I'll do my part by not adding my initially extreme perspective to the discourse

[CDu]

I just don't see this as a possibility. The only way this happened is if a) the coaching staff over promised or b) Joey actually believed he had a shot at the starting 2 next year. If it's a), shame on the coaching staff. But I highly doubt that as I'm sure Coach K AND Scheyer both spoke to Joey.

And b)? The dude barely played in the ACC and NCAA Tournaments as a senior. And he would expect to play a big role next year? I don't buy it...

It would not be the first time a player miscalculated his chances.

Maybe it took having a concrete situation to make it clear to him that it's time to look elsewhere. I think it's way more likely that a 22 year old kid had a realization than it is that the program has been misleading him over the past SEVERAL months.

As to the "why did he wait so long?" question? While the May 1 deadline applies, it seems to apply less to grad transfers than to regular transfers. I.e., it takes less for a grad transfer to get a waiver than it does for an undergrad transfer. In Baker's case, "recruited over" could be the argument made. I'd be shocked if he's not playing somewhere next season.