Originally Posted by
HayYou
Three point shooting might well be a problem. Heck, it probably will be a problem.
But there is no immediate fix for that problem. Time, in the form of lots of practice shooting threes, not just in practice, not just in organized team scrimmages, but also in actual games, is the only real fix for shooting by the players on the roster. Beyond that, recruiting more players who are better shooters.
Both of those "fixes" are long term in nature. We've had several mediocre three point shooters who quickly turned into good shooters in the NBA. Well, duh. Years 2 and 3 of Ingram or Tatum would have featured college players averaging close to 30 a game on 40+ percent from 3 (excluding the overlap in their careers with them on the same team sharing shots). But those guys, amongst others, turning into elite 3pt shooters in the NBA doesn't help Duke. It is what it is.
Recruiting more shooters is similarly a long term fix. It won't help next year's roster.
Ergo, J has to fix what can be fixed. I think we'll score enough to be a national contender next year. Probably not the favorite, or even one of the leading favorites, but we'll score enough to be a legit threat come March, unless we are shooting closer to 25% from 3. Which I doubt will be the case. I suspect that IF we shoot a decent percentage from 3, it will be on a relatively lower number of threes per game. If we shoot a higher number of threes per game, it will be at a lower percentage, probably closer to 33%. Not ideal, but we can overcome it. Again, we'll score enough. If, by some reason we are shooting in the high 30s on around 25 spg, we'll be a top 5 team come March, and one of the leading teams in the nation. I'd be surprised if that happens.
J has to get our D up to a high enough level to win the title. It might require a lot of tinkering to fine tune it. But the pieces are there. Flip, while not a great athlete, seems to have a mean streak. He can guard the opposing team's less mobile big, leaving Lively to guard more mobile big. Maybe. Or J needs to figure out a D that keeps Lively close to the basket to protect the rim. IDK. Once OTAs start, this is the primary goal. A returning PG should be able to get the team up to speed with the O during the summer workouts. But once J and the staff get ahold of the team, figuring out the D is the primary task.
I hope that the real fix to the D is Whitehead. And/or Mitchell. Traditionally Duke's D has excelled when we've got a good defender(s) at the wing. SG and SF are where a lot of college ball games are won or lost. Even if they aren't the best players on the team, once play on the wing falls below a certain fairly high level, title contention is over. Last season, when Moore and Griffin both laid an egg, Duke lost. Dariq (sg) and Mitchell, who I think will play a lot of SF, are key to the season. Especially on D.