Now that the coaches and roster are coming into focus...

[jv001]

Three point shooting might well be a problem. Heck, it probably will be a problem.

But there is no immediate fix for that problem. Time, in the form of lots of practice shooting threes, not just in practice, not just in organized team scrimmages, but also in actual games, is the only real fix for shooting by the players on the roster. Beyond that, recruiting more players who are better shooters.

Both of those "fixes" are long term in nature. We've had several mediocre three point shooters who quickly turned into good shooters in the NBA. Well, duh. Years 2 and 3 of Ingram or Tatum would have featured college players averaging close to 30 a game on 40+ percent from 3 (excluding the overlap in their careers with them on the same team sharing shots). But those guys, amongst others, turning into elite 3pt shooters in the NBA doesn't help Duke. It is what it is.

Recruiting more shooters is similarly a long term fix. It won't help next year's roster.

Ergo, J has to fix what can be fixed. I think we'll score enough to be a national contender next year. Probably not the favorite, or even one of the leading favorites, but we'll score enough to be a legit threat come March, unless we are shooting closer to 25% from 3. Which I doubt will be the case. I suspect that IF we shoot a decent percentage from 3, it will be on a relatively lower number of threes per game. If we shoot a higher number of threes per game, it will be at a lower percentage, probably closer to 33%. Not ideal, but we can overcome it. Again, we'll score enough. If, by some reason we are shooting in the high 30s on around 25 spg, we'll be a top 5 team come March, and one of the leading teams in the nation. I'd be surprised if that happens.

J has to get our D up to a high enough level to win the title. It might require a lot of tinkering to fine tune it. But the pieces are there. Flip, while not a great athlete, seems to have a mean streak. He can guard the opposing team's less mobile big, leaving Lively to guard more mobile big. Maybe. Or J needs to figure out a D that keeps Lively close to the basket to protect the rim. IDK. Once OTAs start, this is the primary goal. A returning PG should be able to get the team up to speed with the O during the summer workouts. But once J and the staff get ahold of the team, figuring out the D is the primary task.

I hope that the real fix to the D is Whitehead. And/or Mitchell. Traditionally Duke's D has excelled when we've got a good defender(s) at the wing. SG and SF are where a lot of college ball games are won or lost. Even if they aren't the best players on the team, once play on the wing falls below a certain fairly high level, title contention is over. Last season, when Moore and Griffin both laid an egg, Duke lost. Dariq (sg) and Mitchell, who I think will play a lot of SF, are key to the season. Especially on D.

I think Duke will have good defenders in, Lively, Whitehead, Jeremy and probably Mitchell. I say probably with Mark because he has a reputation of being a physical player. But sometimes those reports on incoming freshmen can be off, like AJ from last season, but that could have been from his injuries. Those injuries could have robbed him of quickness. I'm hoping Jon will utilize different defenses, rather than mainly man2man.

GoDuke!

[Heaven's Guardian]

I think Duke will have good defenders in, Lively, Whitehead, Jeremy and probably Mitchell. I say probably with Mark because he has a reputation of being a physical player. But sometimes those reports on incoming freshmen can be off, like AJ from last season, but that could have been from his injuries. Those injuries could have robbed him of quickness. I'm hoping Jon will utilize different defenses, rather than mainly man2man.

GoDuke!

I don't think M2M is the problem, I think it's the kind of M2M. There was an article I read before the Final Four (maybe in the Athletic) where an opposing coach mentioned that Duke frequently bailed out teams by extending the defense, and it was a much bigger problem to play against when we stayed inside the arc and forced teams into tough twos and semi-contested threes. Pretty much all of the consistently good defenses in college play that way now (UVA, Texas Tech, Baylor in particular), and it exploits the relatively weaker shooting of college players off the dribble.

It exposes our weaker defenders when we have everyone switch and jump passing lanes. I doubt Joey would have been unplayable defensively late this year in a system that asked him to stay between his man and the basket, and not to worry about aggressively pressuring on the perimeter. It also reduces the number of help rotations we have to make, which get botched more frequently with younger teams.

[jv001]

I don't think M2M is the problem, I think it's the kind of M2M. There was an article I read before the Final Four (maybe in the Athletic) where an opposing coach mentioned that Duke frequently bailed out teams by extending the defense, and it was a much bigger problem to play against when we stayed inside the arc and forced teams into tough twos and semi-contested threes. Pretty much all of the consistently good defenses in college play that way now (UVA, Texas Tech, Baylor in particular), and it exploits the relatively weaker shooting of college players off the dribble.

It exposes our weaker defenders when we have everyone switch and jump passing lanes. I doubt Joey would have been unplayable defensively late this year in a system that asked him to stay between his man and the basket, and not to worry about aggressively pressuring on the perimeter. It also reduces the number of help rotations we have to make, which get botched more frequently with younger teams.

Now you're talking. If we're going to extend the D, why not fall back into a zone? I like the idea of throwing a pressing defense against opponents. Even if we don't turn the opponent over, it takes time off the shot clock and leaves them with less time to run their offense.

GoDuke!

[MChambers]

I don't think M2M is the problem, I think it's the kind of M2M. There was an article I read before the Final Four (maybe in the Athletic) where an opposing coach mentioned that Duke frequently bailed out teams by extending the defense, and it was a much bigger problem to play against when we stayed inside the arc and forced teams into tough twos and semi-contested threes. Pretty much all of the consistently good defenses in college play that way now (UVA, Texas Tech, Baylor in particular), and it exploits the relatively weaker shooting of college players off the dribble.

It exposes our weaker defenders when we have everyone switch and jump passing lanes. I doubt Joey would have been unplayable defensively late this year in a system that asked him to stay between his man and the basket, and not to worry about aggressively pressuring on the perimeter. It also reduces the number of help rotations we have to make, which get botched more frequently with younger teams.

I've always felt that Duke's 2010 team, with its more compact man-to-man defense, was a shining example of what can be done without contesting every pass. Other than Nolan pressuring the opposing team's point guard pretty far out, the rest of the defense was more restrained. It was shockingly effective.

If only we had a coach who was familiar with that team.

[MChambers]

This seems like as good a place as any to put this. Here's a brief (nine minute) interview of Jon Scheyer by Jeff Goodman. Scheyer does a great job not saying very much. Of course, he learned from the master.

https://twitter.com/Dukeblogger/stat...NGXA0hHd99j1cw

[SupaDave]

Just my two cents. But with Scheyer I think we will see more in game adjustments.

In the last few years especially, K had a tendency to let his players play through a rough moment instead of adjusting to what was needed (ie... ZONE ZONE ZONE).

K realized that the kids changed in the last 5 years or so and you could see him realizing cursing a kid out just wasn't the look or motivation anymore.

And if you ask me - Covid and players like Jalen Johnson sped up K's decision. I can still recall some of the looks K gave Johnson - the frustration (I would watch Johnson a lot and would feel the same.)

So with Coach J, I see a bit less of trying to fit players into roles they can't truly handle.

I also expect our half court offense to resemble more of a 2010 approach instead of all the iso ball we've been seeing the last 5 years or so. More movement with guys working for their shots.

The last few years have kinda reminded me of when JJ was the star his Jr and Sr years. Our offense would stall and players would stop moving - Coach K referred to it as "JJ watching."

So here's to year 1!

[uh_no]

Just my two cents. But with Scheyer I think we will see more in game adjustments.

In the last few years especially, K had a tendency to let his players play through a rough moment instead of adjusting to what was needed (ie... ZONE ZONE ZONE).

K realized that the kids changed in the last 5 years or so and you could see him realizing cursing a kid out just wasn't the look or motivation anymore.

And if you ask me - Covid and players like Jalen Johnson sped up K's decision. I can still recall some of the looks K gave Johnson - the frustration (I would watch Johnson a lot and would feel the same.)

So with Coach J, I see a bit less of trying to fit players into roles they can't truly handle.

I also expect our half court offense to resemble more of a 2010 approach instead of all the iso ball we've been seeing the last 5 years or so. More movement with guys working for their shots.

The last few years have kinda reminded me of when JJ was the star his Jr and Sr years. Our offense would stall and players would stop moving - Coach K referred to it as "JJ watching."

So here's to year 1!

i think k's health has as much of an impact. he was limping to the floor in the tournament.

[SupaDave]

i think k's health has as much of an impact. he was limping to the floor in the tournament.

Oh indeed. K is on like his third hip aint he?

[Truth&Justise]

Just my two cents. But with Scheyer I think we will see more in game adjustments.

In the last few years especially, K had a tendency to let his players play through a rough moment instead of adjusting to what was needed (ie... ZONE ZONE ZONE).

Putting aside the year we switched to zone full time (2018), our wins in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight were fueled in part by K making in in-game adjustment to go zone to throw the other team off. Also allowed Duke to make a comeback at FSU.