The four locks:
Thor
Dr. Strange
Lightyear
Jurassic World
Went with Top Gun for the 5th spot. Imagine it's a kids movie if it's not TG.
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (May 6)
The Bob's Burger Movies (May 27)
Top Gun: Maverick (May 27)
Jurassic World Dominion (June 10)
Lightyear (June 17)
Elvis (June 24)
The Black Phone (June 24)
Minions: The Rise of Gru (July 1)
Thor: Love and Thunder (July 8)
Paws of Fury (July 15)
Nope (July 22)
Bullet Train (July 29)
DC League of Super Pets (July 29)
Bodies, Bodies, Bodies (Aug 5)
Other (Put your pick in Comments)
I think X-Men just works better as a TV series. There are so many characters and themes to manage...the MCU deals with this by having standalone movies focusing on specific characters with an occasional "Avengers" movie bringing everyone together. X-Men for a lot of people is about the group, so a series of standalones for each character doesn't seem likely to get traction and it is hard to do that many characters justice in a single movie.
The four locks:
Thor
Dr. Strange
Lightyear
Jurassic World
Went with Top Gun for the 5th spot. Imagine it's a kids movie if it's not TG.
I think the first gen of X-Men movies were good for their time but they don't hold up very well to what we have now in regards to the acting or the writing. Although, they are still better than most of what we got in the 2nd gen! Superhero movies are always tough for me to grade because they have made some serious leaps over the last 20 years. It's like ranking NBA players from different eras.
I'm guessing I'm not alone with my picks. They are
Dr. Strange
Maverick
Dominion
Lightyear
Thor
I do think that JWD will be #1. Marvel will score high, but the dinosaurs don't require you to have watched all of the other movies to eat you.
I'm predicting this order.
#1 JWD
#2 Thor L&T
#3 Lightyear
#4 Dr. Strange Eating M&Ms
#5 Top Gun Maverick
Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."
I just finished doing my research (watching the trailers) and I feel confident that the following movies will not be in the Top 5:
- Bob's Burger Movies
- Elvis
- The Black Phone
- Paws of Fury
- Nope
- Bullet Train
- Super Pets
- Bodies, Bodies, Bodies
That leaves six movies for five slots.
No.
NO!!!
There are 4 locks -- Dr. Strange, Thor, Lightyear, and Jurassic World. Several other films have a chance, but those 4 are locks.
Marvel movies -- ones that continue the story of the main MCU -- are boxoffice juggernauts. No reason to even discuss whether Strange or Thor will be in the top 5 of summer. It would take another pandemic shutdown to keep either of those from earning $300 mil (and both will likely be even bigger than that).
Lightyear is going to be massive. The Toy Story series is boxoffice gold -- every film in the series has made over $435 mil when you adjust for inflation -- and this is a spin off with a really intriguing concept. The trailer look fabulous and it has a superstar in Chris Evans doing the voice work. Again, if it makes only $250 mil, I will be shocked.
Jurassic World is going to make a mint. The last film, Fallen Kingdom, was a mess. A plot that was all over the place and some pretty mediocre acting. It made $400+ million. This one doesn't even have to be good to be a huge hit.
We can quibble about any other choices, but those 4 are mortal locks.
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The other contenders --
Minions -- darn close to being a lock. This was my choice for the 5th film in the poll. The last Minions film made $336 mil at the domestic boxoffice. This one could be 33% worse and still find its way into our top 5. I worry a little bit that the last Minions film came out in 2015 and the franchise has lost some steam. The kids who loved the first films are considerably older now and may not be into it.
Top Gun -- franchise is ancient and the youth of today have zero connection to it. The film has had a troubled shoot and release rollout. Tom Cruise has been pretty weak at the box office the past 20 years unless he is playing Ethan Hunt. The last non-MI Cruise film to make more than $120 mil at the boxoffice was War of the Worlds in 2005. Not saying it won't be a hit, but it is far from the lock that the other four are. I also think it may skew a bit more adult and adult titles have struggled in the post-pandemic world thus far.
Superpets -- Zero boxoffice history here. DC has been bad, bad, bad for the most part and has little audience loyalty at this point. That said, the Rock, Kevin Hart, and the rest of the voice cast seems strong. The trailer was fun and this could pop. Still, it seems aimed at very young kids and that is not a formula for the kind of wide boxoffice success it will take to be in our top 5.
Paws of Fury -- You want to bet on Paramount Animation? No thanks. I don't think they have ever had a film that made even close to $200 mil at the domestic boxoffice. And I suspect a lot of audience confusion about this and Superpets, which come out within weeks of each other.
Nope - Get Out and Us each grossed about $175 mil at the boxoffice, amazing numbers for horror films that do not have an established franchise attached to them... but a far cry short of what will be needed to hit this summer's top 5. I love Jordan Peele and think this will be a fascinating film, but it is a lot to ask for it to get to $225+ mil in boxoffice (which is probably the minimum it will take to be in this summer's top 5).
Bullet Train - I love the trailer. I love Brad Pitt having fun on screen. Director David Leitch (John Wick, Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2, Hobbes and Shaw) knows his way around fast-paced action. But it is really hard for me to pick something that does not have an established audience already built in. This film could make $150 mil and be seen as a big, big success. Projecting it to make 50% more than that seems like a stretch. Oh, and I worry a bit about the "many assassins going after the same target" concept as that has been done several times before and seems to have somewhat limited boxoffice potential (likely to struggle with adults and younger kids).
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
I forgot about Lightyear and didn't pick it. I'm out of the running already. But then I was the lone person to pick Morbius last time and we see how that worked out!
I went with Minions over Top Gun, though it broke my heart.
Uh oh... I may have chosen poorly when it comes to my 5th vote.
Early word is that Top Gun Maverick blew away the crowd at CinemaCon this week.
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
My vote is in. But the stark truth is the only one of these movies I am likely to see is the Bob's Burgers Movie.
Flame away.
As many have noted, it's likely that this poll will be "won" by more than a few. So with that in mind, I'd love to see what your predicted order of finish is, like I had posted mine above.
It would be a way to thin the winning herd a bit. (I'm sure that some of the lists will also be identical.)
Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."
Strange
Jurassic
Maverick
Lightyear
Thor
(Yes I changed my order three times after looking at it)
My order:
Strange
Lightyear
Jurassic World
Thor
Minions
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
I’ll admit, my choices for 4th and 5th place were motivated more by what I want to see happen rather than what probably will happen. I just can’t pull the trigger for one more movie about bitey dinosaurs. Give me Rocky 7- Balboa Versus Putin, or Fast and Furious 12-Rock and Vin Diesel go to Therapy, or just about any other sequel. I just can’t watch another CGI dinosaur movie.
So, I’ve got:
Strange
Lightyear
Thor
Top Gun
Minions
I’ll probably lose but I can live with that decision.
My order:
Dominion
Strange
Thor
Lightyear
Minions
Jurassic
Maverick
Strange
Thor
Lightyear
I'll go
Thor
Jurassic
Strange
Lightyear
Maverick
The timing of Thor v. Strange is interesting. Strange is released before summer truly starts, and there are releases after that will grab attention. There's almost nothing after Thor that I think draws the same audience, and both genders are going to be interested in the eye candy. I think Thor cleans up for most of the mid- to late-summer and trounces Strange in the end. But that's with the caveat that I haven't really seen much about either film.