Quick guide to offseason player deadlines

[pokeresq]

Quick summary of the relevant deadlines below:

April 24-Last day for early entry to NBA draft. Players can enter the draft and maintain eligibility so long as they withdraw by the deadline below. Hiring an agent no longer forfeits eligibility so long as the agent is NCAA certified (many of the top agents do not bother to get certified). The benefit to players is that they cn workout for NBA teams and get feedback on areas of improvement. In other words, a player entering his name for the draft does not commit him to leaving, so remember that if Michael Savarino files his paperwork. It truly is a no downside option for a player.

May 1st-Deadline to enter the Transfer Portal and have eligibility for 22-23 season. Players can choose to return to their school, but their scholarship does not have to be held. No real deadline for choosing new school other than academic requirements (so for for SEC, CHeats etc no deadline). For example former OU qb Caleb Williams had to be enrolled at USC by drop/add date in January to participate in spring practice.

June 1-Deadline to withdraw from NBA draft and remain eligible. NBA allows withdrawal until June 13 but so far only possible basis to keep college eligibility is paperwork error appeal.

This will be the first year full NIL is in place by the draft withdrawal deadline which could have a substantial impact on decisions. Players not projected to go in the first round likely could make more NIL money than would be earned playing professionally either in US or overseas. The CHeats down 15-501 undoubtedly backed up the money truck for Bacot, and at least offered Leaky a good used car. Duke may do the same for Wendell(projected in most mocks as early to mid 2nd round pick) and Jeremy (unlikely to be drafted). Projections can and will change for individual players based on workouts, but there is so much tape on Duke players they are less likely to have either a big jump or big fall absent medical issues.

[JasonEvans]

Quick summary of the relevant deadlines below:

April 24-Last day for early entry to NBA draft. Players can enter the draft and maintain eligibility so long as they withdraw by the deadline below. Hiring an agent no longer forfeits eligibility so long as the agent is NCAA certified (many of the top agents do not bother to get certified). The benefit to players is that they cn workout for NBA teams and get feedback on areas of improvement. In other words, a player entering his name for the draft does not commit him to leaving, so remember that if Michael Savarino files his paperwork. It truly is a no downside option for a player.

May 1st-Deadline to enter the Transfer Portal and have eligibility for 22-23 season. Players can choose to return to their school, but their scholarship does not have to be held. No real deadline for choosing new school other than academic requirements (so for for SEC, CHeats etc no deadline). For example former OU qb Caleb Williams had to be enrolled at USC by drop/add date in January to participate in spring practice.

June 1-Deadline to withdraw from NBA draft and remain eligible. NBA allows withdrawal until June 13 but so far only possible basis to keep college eligibility is paperwork error appeal.

This will be the first year full NIL is in place by the draft withdrawal deadline which could have a substantial impact on decisions. Players not projected to go in the first round likely could make more NIL money than would be earned playing professionally either in US or overseas. The CHeats down 15-501 undoubtedly backed up the money truck for Bacot, and at least offered Leaky a good used car. Duke may do the same for Wendell(projected in most mocks as early to mid 2nd round pick) and Jeremy (unlikely to be drafted). Projections can and will change for individual players based on workouts, but there is so much tape on Duke players they are less likely to have either a big jump or big fall absent medical issues.

Good on you for providing the dates to folks who do not know them. One small correction, Wendell is not projected as a mid-2nd rounder. Pretty much every mock I have seen has him going in the 20s, which is mid-late first round. I don't think anyone has him going later than the very early 2nd round. If you are one of the 10 - 15 first picks of the second round, you will get a contract with enough guaranteed money (well over $2 mil for the first two years) to overshadow all but a few truly exceptional NIL deals (I suspect Tshiebwe may get a better NIL deal than what a 2nd round contract would net him).

[pokeresq]

Not trying to quibble, but the latest Espn mock (which bought draftexpress.com) has Wendell at #35, which I believe meets the early to mid 2nd round description I used (I truly try to do my homework before posting). At that point, he likely would be able to negotiate some guarantee, even if it is part of a 2 way contract.
For those curious, per the CBA only 1st round picks are required to receive guaranteed contracts, but higher 2nd round picks often can do so. This year the final pick in the 1st round gets a minimum contract for 2 years at 1.66M and 1.75M. The team has options for up to 5 years under the rookie scale.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...caa-tournament

[pokeresq]

PS
I posted before I listened to the DBR podcast as most podcasts do not update on Saturday or Sunday. Some issues are covered, so I suggest anyone interested listen to the pod.

[JasonEvans]

Not trying to quibble, but the latest Espn mock (which bought draftexpress.com) has Wendell at #35, which I believe meets the early to mid 2nd round description I used (I truly try to do my homework before posting). At that point, he likely would be able to negotiate some guarantee, even if it is part of a 2 way contract.
For those curious, per the CBA only 1st round picks are required to receive guaranteed contracts, but higher 2nd round picks often can do so. This year the final pick in the 1st round gets a minimum contract for 2 years at 1.66M and 1.75M. The team has options for up to 5 years under the rookie scale.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...caa-tournament

I know we are just parsing words back and forth but in addition to your citation of ESPN, I checked the following mocks...

SI's latest mock (4/14) - Wendell at #20
Bleacher Report (4/16) - Wendell at #28
CBS Sports (4/12) - Wendell not in the first round
USA Today (4/6) - Wendell at #26
The Ringer (4/5) - Wendell at #25
Yahoo Sports (4/5) - Wendell at #24

Also, as I stated earlier, I went back and looked at 2nd round picks from last year and the year before. If you are one of the top 10 picks of the second round, you are getting a 2-4 year contract (with at least 2 years guaranteed) at something like $1.2 - $1.5 mil per season. For all but a very, very select few situations (Tshiebwe may be the only one) that's almost certainly going to be significantly more than a year of NIL will generate.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I know we are just parsing words back and forth but in addition to your citation of ESPN, I checked the following mocks...

SI's latest mock (4/14) - Wendell at #20
Bleacher Report (4/16) - Wendell at #28
CBS Sports (4/12) - Wendell not in the first round
USA Today (4/6) - Wendell at #26
The Ringer (4/5) - Wendell at #25
Yahoo Sports (4/5) - Wendell at #24

Also, as I stated earlier, I went back and looked at 2nd round picks from last year and the year before. If you are one of the top 10 picks of the second round, you are getting a 2-4 year contract (with at least 2 years guaranteed) at something like $1.2 - $1.5 mil per season. For all but a very, very select few situations (Tshiebwe may be the only one) that's almost certainly going to be significantly more than a year of NIL will generate.

I acknowledge that these scouts and sports writers know more than I do, and I really like Wendell, but I'd be very surprised if he was taken in the first round. Just doesn't feel right to me.

Of course if he declares I'll be rooting for him to go as high as possible. I'd just be cautious about making a decision to come out based on those predictions.

[JasonEvans]

I acknowledge that these scouts and sports writers know more than I do, and I really like Wendell, but I'd be very surprised if he was taken in the first round. Just doesn't feel right to me.

Of course if he declares I'll be rooting for him to go as high as possible. I'd just be cautious about making a decision to come out based on those predictions.

Oh, I am certain that all the Duke kids making draft decisions are getting help from Duke to speak to NBA GMs and scouts and scrupulous agents who can give a far more accurate assessment of their draft stock than any published mock draft can. I have it on good authority that DJ Steward and Matthew Hurt were both warned a year ago that there was a chance they would not get drafted until late in the second round and possibly not at all.

[dudog84]

Oh, I am certain that all the Duke kids making draft decisions are getting help from Duke to speak to NBA GMs and scouts and scrupulous agents who can give a far more accurate assessment of their draft stock than any published mock draft can. I have it on good authority that DJ Steward and Matthew Hurt were both warned a year ago that there was a chance they would not get drafted until late in the second round and possibly not at all.

09c3503f257266b53e8ba9a6ada3d8a3.jpg

[DukieInBrasil]

I acknowledge that these scouts and sports writers know more than I do, and I really like Wendell, but I'd be very surprised if he was taken in the first round. Just doesn't feel right to me.

Of course if he declares I'll be rooting for him to go as high as possible. I'd just be cautious about making a decision to come out based on those predictions.

I too have my doubts that NBA teams are truly that high on Wendell. Without any broader knowledge on the topic, perhaps this year is a "down year" in terms of top-flight potential. I know people are very high on perhaps the first 5 possible picks, but after that, maybe there's just not a lot of top-end talent, and due to that lack perhaps Wendell is seen as a better option in this year's draft?
I have similar doubts about Trevor's draftability this year, but maybe next year's draft is seen as super-stacked? and is therefore a better option to try out the draft this year?
I certainly enjoyed Wendell's steady, all-around stat-stuffing game this year, but he still has flaws in his game (driving without a plan etc) and he is better than average at a lot of different things, but is not really exceptional at any of them (maybe defense?). Also, he spent the 2 previous years being well below-average at a lot of different things (or at least completely not talked about as a draft pick), indicating that his productivity this year was due more to experience than pure talent. Everyone says that the NBA drafts on potential. I realize that Wendell is quite young for being a Jr., younger than Cassius Stanley was as a Fr., so that might weigh in his favor. It just seems that Wendell carries some shades of Chris Carrawell, who even after being drafted in the 1st round by a player-development savant team (Spurs) after being the ACC POY, didn't even make the team and never played a second in the NBA.
ed.- to make this relevant to the thread, it seems logical for both Wendell and Trevor to do all of the draft combine stuff, get feedback etc., and decide based on that feedback. I certainly hope to see one of both of them return for a Natty next year!

[Indoor66]

I know we are just parsing words back and forth but in addition to your citation of ESPN, I checked the following mocks...

SI's latest mock (4/14) - Wendell at #20
Bleacher Report (4/16) - Wendell at #28
CBS Sports (4/12) - Wendell not in the first round
USA Today (4/6) - Wendell at #26
The Ringer (4/5) - Wendell at #25
Yahoo Sports (4/5) - Wendell at #24

Also, as I stated earlier, I went back and looked at 2nd round picks from last year and the year before. If you are one of the top 10 picks of the second round, you are getting a 2-4 year contract (with at least 2 years guaranteed) at something like $1.2 - $1.5 mil per season. For all but a very, very select few situations (Tshiebwe may be the only one) that's almost certainly going to be significantly more than a year of NIL will generate.

How do we know what NIL will generate? Aren't thoughts about NIL return mostly speculation? Does anyone have any REAL numbers from which to base speculation?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Oh, I am certain that all the Duke kids making draft decisions are getting help from Duke to speak to NBA GMs and scouts and scrupulous agents who can give a far more accurate assessment of their draft stock than any published mock draft can. I have it on good authority that DJ Steward and Matthew Hurt were both warned a year ago that there was a chance they would not get drafted until late in the second round and possibly not at all.

There have been few draft decisions by Blue Devils that I have found perplexing. I suspect they have quite good consultants on their roster helping these young men.

[SkyBrickey]

I did not realize picks in the top half of the second round were consistently getting those sized contracts.

I would expect it would be very tough for scrupulous NIL marketing deals to compare with those contracts in most cases. Now unscrupulous deals (boosters funneling money to kids with NIL as a vehicle - which with UNC’s sordid history is almost certainly happening with Bacot) are a whole different story.

Honestly, what a mess. I expect there to be so many crazy NIL stories starting in the fall, many true and many untrue, that become a huge part of the college sports storyline in the near future.

It just seems like it creates so much space for shady deals to occur. I know most think we will have a big advantage but it makes me feel sorry for the coaches and staff at a place like Duke where I believe we’ve always tried to do things the right way.

[-jk]

I did not realize picks in the top half of the second round were consistently getting those sized contracts.

I would expect it would be very tough for scrupulous NIL marketing deals to compare with those contracts in most cases. Now unscrupulous deals (boosters funneling money to kids with NIL as a vehicle - which with UNC’s sordid history is almost certainly happening with Bacot) are a whole different story.

Honestly, what a mess. I expect there to be so many crazy NIL stories starting in the fall, many true and many untrue, that become a huge part of the college sports storyline in the near future.

It just seems like it creates so much space for shady deals to occur. I know most think we will have a big advantage but it makes me feel sorry for the coaches and staff at a place like Duke where I believe we’ve always tried to do things the right way.

Google says that's the first time "scrupulous NIL marketing deal" has been typed. Well, second now, I guess.

-jk

[Kedsy]

It just seems that Wendell carries some shades of Chris Carrawell, who even after being drafted in the 1st round by a player-development savant team (Spurs) after being the ACC POY, didn't even make the team and never played a second in the NBA.

I agree that Wendell has had a similar career progression as Chris Carrawell (who was drafted in the 2nd round, #41, not the first round), and his stats this season were similar (though a bit better) to Carrawell's senior season, but things have changed in the NBA the past 20+ years. First off, Wendell is more athletic and a better shooter than Chris (and IIRC, those were the areas that probably doomed Carrawell's NBA career). More importantly, these days an athletic 6'5" plus-defender who can shoot is highly sought after, while in those days not as much. Assuming his workouts go well, NBA scouts could look at Wendell as a Keldon Johnson or shorter Otto Porter, and someone like that would likely be targeted in the late first round.

[scottdude8]

For Wendell and Trevor, I think their decision will be less about how much money they'd make this year with NIL vs an NBA contract versus how much more money they could make by improving their draft stock next year. According to the Rookie Scale, a late first round pick (23-30 for this analysis) makes less than 2 million in their first year. A late lottery pick (9-14) all make more than 3 million in their first year (well, #14 makes just under that). This difference is exaggerated over the course of the contract, since the ramp up looks to be percentage based... the #14 pick's second year salary goes up 148k, while the #30 pick's goes up 83k. If someone sticks around through the option years, this difference will expand.

Wendell and Trevor both look to be late first round picks at max. However, both could conceivably move into the lottery with a stellar additional year on campus (look at Ochai Agbaji in relation to Wendell, or Jaden Ivey, Keegan Murray, and Johnny Davis for Trevor). Things then become a pot odds/probability question: how confident would these guys be that the potential improvement in their draft stock would outweigh the difference between their NBA and NIL earnings for one year?

Obviously the calculus becomes more complex when you think about second contracts, the possibility of injury, etc. But the idea that the calculus here is "NIL money vs. first year contract money" is way over simplifying things, I think.

[arnie]

I agree that Wendell has had a similar career progression as Chris Carrawell (who was drafted in the 2nd round, #41, not the first round), and his stats this season were similar (though a bit better) to Carrawell's senior season, but things have changed in the NBA the past 20+ years. First off, Wendell is more athletic and a better shooter than Chris (and IIRC, those were the areas that probably doomed Carrawell's NBA career). More importantly, these days an athletic 6'5" plus-defender who can shoot is highly sought after, while in those days not as much. Assuming his workouts go well, NBA scouts could look at Wendell as a Keldon Johnson or shorter Otto Porter, and someone like that would likely be targeted in the late first round.

This thread encouraged me to look back at Carrawell stats. Amazing how much he improved between jr. and sr. years. He would not have been looked at by NBA after his junior year.

[pokeresq]

Because it is a rainy day, I checked the first 10 2nd round salaries from 2021 (#30 as last pick in first round gets 1.6M). You will have to ask Woj for how long the contracts are guaranteed, and the variance is not linear like the rookie salary cap.

As to NIL, more details are being made public, for instance the Washington St collective announced a 90K deal to lure a transfer qb from Incarnate Word. So far the NCAA has done nothing beyond make a few phone calls.

https://www.on3.com/nil/news/nil-col...hington-state/

31-1.5M
32-2M
33-1.06
34-NR
35-1.7M
36-925K
37-1.25M
38-925K
39-462K
40-925K

[JasonEvans]

Because it is a rainy day, I checked the first 10 2nd round salaries from 2021 (#30 as last pick in first round gets 1.6M). You will have to ask Woj for how long the contracts are guaranteed, and the variance is not linear like the rookie salary cap.

As to NIL, more details are being made public, for instance the Washington St collective announced a 90K deal to lure a transfer qb from Incarnate Word. So far the NCAA has done nothing beyond make a few phone calls.

https://www.on3.com/nil/news/nil-col...hington-state/

31-1.5M
32-2M
33-1.06
34-NR
35-1.7M
36-925K
37-1.25M
38-925K
39-462K
40-925K

Yeah, I did this a while back and was even able to get how much was guaranteed in each deal.

Here you go...

Obviously, it depends on what you negotiate, but the vast majority of guys taken in the first half of the second round get some kind of guaranteed deal. The NBA is actually paying 2nd rounders pretty decently now.

Here is a list of last year's 2nds rounders and the contracts they signed: (I put italics on the guys who did not get guaranteed NBA money)

31- Isaiah Todd - 4yr/$7mil, 3yr/$5mil guaranteed
32- Jeremiah Robinson-Earl - 4yr/$7.9mil, 2yr/$4mil guaranteed
33- Jason Preston - 3yr/$4.5mil, 2yr/$2.5mil guaranteed
34- Rokas Jokubaitis - intl player chose to continue to play overseas
35- Herbert Jones - 3yr/$5.3mil, 2yr/$3.4mil guaranteed
36- Miles McBride - 3yr/$4.3mil, 2yr/$2.5mil guaranteed
37- JT Thor - 4yr/$6.6mil, 2yr/$2.8mil guaranteed
38- Ayo Dosunmu - 2yr/$2.5mil, 1yr/$0.9mil guaranteed (he's been pretty good and could do well when he gets to be a quick RFA after 2 seasons)
39- Neemias Queta - 2-way contract, no guarantees
40- Jared Butler - 2yr/$2.5 mil, fully guaranteed
41- Joe Weiskmp - 2-way contract, no guarantees
42 - Isaiah Livers - 3yr/$4.5mil, 2yr/$2.6mil guaranteed
43- Greg Brown - 3yr/$4.3mil, 2yr/$2.5mil guaranteed
44- Kessler Edwards - 2-way contract, no guarantees (he will be getting a full contract soon, he's been a really nice sub for the Nets lately. Won't be shocked if he makes more than some late 1st rounders next season)
45- Juhann Begarin - intl player chose to continue to play overseas
46- Dalano Banton - 2yr/$2.5mil, fully guaranteed
47- David Johnson - 2-way contract, no guarantees
48- Sharife Cooper - 2-way contract, no guarantees
49- Marcus Zegarowski - did not sign a NBA deal, playing on a standard G-League contract
50- Filip Petrusev - playing overseas in Turkey
51- Brandon Boston - 3yr/$4.3mil, 2yr/$2.5mil guaranteed
52- Luka Garza - signed a 2-way contract, it was converted to a 2yr/$2.4mil, 1yr/$925k guaranteed contract in September
53- Charles Bassey - 3yr/$4.3mil, 1yr/$1mil guaranteed
54- Sandro Mamukelashvili - 2-way contract, no guarantees
55- Aaron Wiggins - signed a 2-way contract, it was converted to a 4yr/$6.3mil, 1yr/$1mil guaranteed contract last week. He's been great for OKC and will likely have a nice NBA career
56- Scottie Lewis - 2-way contract, no guarantees
57- Balsa Koprivica - playing overseas in Serbia
58- Jericho Sims - 2-way contract, no guarantees
59- Raiquan Grey - did not sign a NBA deal, playing on a standard G-League contract
60- Georgios Kalaitzakis - 3yr/$4.3mil, $462k guaranteed, was waived in December and currently playing on a G-League standard contract

Charles Bassey and Brandon Boston got really good deals considering their draft spots. They have really good agents!

-Jason "someone (me) had too much time on their hands this morning and put this together" Evans

[pokeresq]

Apparently, Jason had more rainy day time than I did. NBA money sometimes seems to equal Monopoly money (with extra zeroes) as John Wall was paid 44M this year not to play by the Rockets. I think that Scottdude is correct that each player has to make a complicated decision. For instance the NIL money is only there for a player while playing for a school with a rabid fan base, and the same late 1st, early 2nd $ may be available after getting the NIL.

Still, it provides better options for the players, especially those who may be superb CBB players while only being marginal NBA prospects. I hate the amorality of the CHeats, but I am glad that Bacot will get paid in college as he appears unlikely to ever make an NBA roster.

[scottdude8]

Apparently, Jason had more rainy day time than I did. NBA money sometimes seems to equal Monopoly money (with extra zeroes) as John Wall was paid 44M this year not to play by the Rockets. I think that Scottdude is correct that each player has to make a complicated decision. For instance the NIL money is only there for a player while playing for a school with a rabid fan base, and the same late 1st, early 2nd $ may be available after getting the NIL.

Still, it provides better options for the players, especially those who may be superb CBB players while only being marginal NBA prospects. I hate the amorality of the CHeats, but I am glad that Bacot will get paid in college as he appears unlikely to ever make an NBA roster.

Yeah, the most important impact of NIL in the long run is not going to be on how it affects the lives of NBA prospects (even fringe ones), but on how it affects the lives of the players who are college stars, and thus contribute a lot to the financial successes of their university, but weren't seeing a fair return on that contribution. Joey Baker probably won't play a day in the NBA (although you never know nowadays!), but he'll rake in enough to have a great start to his post Duke life based on being the super-senior captain of next year's team. Think about what that could've meant to the rarer and rarer four year guys whom we all love, but recognize won't make it in the NBA. Javin DeLaurier played a bit in a Canadian league where you get paid ~$700 a game... can you imagine how much easier his professional career would've been if he had a $50-100k nest egg from NIL earnings from a four year Duke career to supplement pursuing his dream of playing professionally?

Now, that's just the moral side of things, which in my opinion is a home run (yes, there will be people who exploit the system, but in my view the pros far outweigh those cons). The most important impacts from a practical side are probably on these return decisions, which we'll learn more about in the coming week.