Vehicle fatality incentives

[Bostondevil]

Quite a few have camera systems now that are insane aswell as radar sonar.
Im sure this has mitigated some of the suv blindspots .
Our last two you could litterally see all around the vehichle .

That doesn't help for the millions of SUVs still on the road without such equipment. Also - do all the cameras come standard or are they add-ons? Because if that safety equipment costs more, not everyone will buy them. And finally - are the cameras placed so that shorter people can use them as easily as taller people? Shorter drivers have more difficultly seeing things from SUVs than drivers who are the height that SUVs are designed for.

[DU82]

You have to look at deaths per quantity of miles traveled driven to make the most valid comparisons. The US traffic fatality rate per 100,000,000 miles traveled dropped steadily with a couple of minor fluctuations for decades after the creation of the National Traffic Safety Board. The rate dropped below 2 deaths per 100,000,000 miles traveled in 1991 and has never gone above 2 since. It dropped below 1.5 in 2003. While it is true that 2020 saw the highest rate since 2007, unless it keeps going up and/or rises above 1.5, it can still be explained as fluctuations around a mean, especially when we think about 2020 from a miles traveled perspective - 2020 was weird and probably shouldn't be looked at as indicative of anything. Reporting on "increases" in traffic fatality rates is one of the worst uses of the percent increase statistic out there. It is my opinion that we have reached the limits of how low current safety technology can bring the fatality rates in the US and that it will take new safety innovations to bring the fatality rates significantly lower.

You can look at per capita rates or per automobile rates if you want to compare the US to other countries, but they aren't as valid as per quantity of miles traveled.

I don't think comparison with some of the small European counties is completely "fair", but we do see issues with the increase in fatality rate.

There's still things that can be done with design to further reduce the fatality rate. Vehicular safety has greatly improved, especially in the past twenty years. I'm driving a 2014 RAV4, and testing 2022 models. The safety improvements (360 cameras, blind spot detection, automatic breaking, etc.) are impressive. We're not driving Corvairs anymore. (At least, I hope not.)

I was using the number of deaths per 100K population above, but the rates for 1M miles traveled (a common comparison number) is increasing as well. And is significantly above other "industrialized" countries.

Speed and ignoring reasonable traffic laws is a rising problem. It primarily started with the pandemic, when the mileage traveled in the country (and state) dropped significantly, reducing congestion and allowing higher speeds. The driving patterns of some remain even with traffic volumes rebounding to pre-2020 numbers. The 2019 numbers indicate that deaths on the highway were almost 40K in 2019.

Vision Zero is a relatively new movement; the mission is that even one death is preventable and too much. (I'm on the NC Vision Zero committee.) While I agree there's likely a "floor" for the crash/fatality rates, I don't think we're there yet. One current topic is reducing "kinetic energy", especially when involving pedestrian crossings. Generally, crashes involving motor vehicles and pedestrians are survivable when the speed is below 20, and mostly not when at/above 35. (Again, another reason to install more roundabouts at intersections.)

For just vehicular vehicle crashes, reducing conflict points (places where vehicular paths cross, diverge or merge) helps. Various new designs help there (don't just build the "standard" cross-intersection where all movements happen at the same point, especially where higher speeds are involved.)

[Bostondevil]

I don't think comparison with some of the small European counties is completely "fair", but we do see issues with the increase in fatality rate.

There's still things that can be done with design to further reduce the fatality rate. Vehicular safety has greatly improved, especially in the past twenty years. I'm driving a 2014 RAV4, and testing 2022 models. The safety improvements (360 cameras, blind spot detection, automatic breaking, etc.) are impressive. We're not driving Corvairs anymore. (At least, I hope not.)

I was using the number of deaths per 100K population above, but the rates for 1M miles traveled (a common comparison number) is increasing as well. And is significantly above other "industrialized" countries.

Speed and ignoring reasonable traffic laws is a rising problem. It primarily started with the pandemic, when the mileage traveled in the country (and state) dropped significantly, reducing congestion and allowing higher speeds. The driving patterns of some remain even with traffic volumes rebounding to pre-2020 numbers. The 2019 numbers indicate that deaths on the highway were almost 40K in 2019.

Vision Zero is a relatively new movement; the mission is that even one death is preventable and too much. (I'm on the NC Vision Zero committee.) While I agree there's likely a "floor" for the crash/fatality rates, I don't think we're there yet. One current topic is reducing "kinetic energy", especially when involving pedestrian crossings. Generally, crashes involving motor vehicles and pedestrians are survivable when the speed is below 20, and mostly not when at/above 35. (Again, another reason to install more roundabouts at intersections.)

For just vehicular vehicle crashes, reducing conflict points (places where vehicular paths cross, diverge or merge) helps. Various new designs help there (don't just build the "standard" cross-intersection where all movements happen at the same point, especially where higher speeds are involved.)

I applaud your efforts. Preventing preventable deaths has been my life's work although I have approached it from the public health side of things instead of from an engineering viewpoint. Preventing traffic fatalities falls under that umbrella and yes, I have participated in studies that look at traffic fatalities.

My response to the bolded section of your post - no, it's not. It was higher than it's been in awhile in 2020. Prior to 2020, it had hovered around 1.1 for a decade. One data point, especially one in the middle of a pandemic when driving patterns were not normal is not a trend. Numbers for 2021 have not been released yet that I have seen.

If you don't think comparing the US with small European countries is fair, then don't do it. If you are going to do it, you have to choose the measure that takes out the most variability - that's fatalities per miles traveled.

[budwom]

I did read that during the pandemic, traffic was down but in many places fatalities were up...lots of people driving a whole lot faster.

I still marvel (sadly) when I read about people dying in car accidents and they weren't wearing a seat belt.

[DU82]

I applaud your efforts. Preventing preventable deaths has been my life's work although I have approached it from the public health side of things instead of from an engineering viewpoint. Preventing traffic fatalities falls under that umbrella and yes, I have participated in studies that look at traffic fatalities.

My response to the bolded section of your post - no, it's not. It was higher than it's been in awhile in 2020. Prior to 2020, it had hovered around 1.1 for a decade. One data point, especially one in the middle of a pandemic when driving patterns were not normal is not a trend. Numbers for 2021 have not been released yet that I have seen.

If you don't think comparing the US with small European countries is fair, then don't do it. If you are going to do it, you have to choose the measure that takes out the most variability - that's fatalities per miles traveled.

I no longer have access (negatives of retirement), but I thought I saw the NC 2021 numbers as being higher. Possibly not released fully to the public. Definitely a trend of the past couple of years. Admittedly, still low compared to 40 years ago.

I prefer comparing to "like" countries such as Canada and Australia, but many do compare to European countries which have different travel patterns. (And we are lagging behind those two.)

[Bostondevil]

I no longer have access (negatives of retirement), but I thought I saw the NC 2021 numbers as being higher. Possibly not released fully to the public. Definitely a trend of the past couple of years. Admittedly, still low compared to 40 years ago.

I prefer comparing to "like" countries such as Canada and Australia, but many do compare to European countries which have different travel patterns. (And we are lagging behind those two.)

Not the whole country though. Traffic fatalities rates, just like almost everything else, are variable by state, the highest rated states are more than 3 times more deadly than the lowest rated states. That's a lot of variability.

As far as I can tell from a cursory review online (and I'm not interested enough to pursue it further), Canada doesn't count pedestrian fatalities in their reported numbers. We do.

[OldPhiKap]

I’ve lost track of what the fight is about in this thread, but having driven a fair amount in Europe and in many parts of the U.S. — comparing any European country to the U.S. by anything per mile traveled is apples to oranges. Outside of the Northeast Corridor and the big cities, we are a continent of vast expanse that just doesn’t exist in Europe.

And Europeans by and large drive much smaller vehicles. And stop for pedestrians at crossings. Etc.

Europe is a whole different driving culture, different vehicle make-up, and way different concepts of distance.

Tl;dr — I agree with the poster who said this is a physics problem not a policy problem. Certainly not a policy problem that needs intervention. (And fwiw I drive a small hybrid sedan).

[Skydog]

I saw the initial post claiming 20k traffic deaths per year and got my hopes up. Unfortunately that isn't true. According to Wikipedia traffic fatalities were 40-54k from 1963 to 2007, dropped to 37k in 2008 then sharply down to ~32-35k from 2009-2015. Then in 2016 it went back up 37-38k and has stayed there since. Of course the population, number of cars and miles driven were all increasing steadily during this period so any drop in the absolute # of deaths indicates big improvements in car safety, such as seat belts, air bags, better cabin protection, etc. But I have no idea why fatalities dropped so much starting in 2008 and shot back up 2016. Presidential party? (I'm joking, I'm joking... relax folks.)

[Skydog]

And yes the overall comparison to Europe makes little sense. Traffic fatalities are highest where people drive fastest and that tends to be in large open areas like you see in Texas, Arizona, CA. More densely populated areas have more traffic and drive more slowly. Now a comparison in US cities to similarly sized Euro cities would make sense. That is where the superiority of roundabouts would show up clearly.

[-jk]

And yes the overall comparison to Europe makes little sense. Traffic fatalities are highest where people drive fastest and that tends to be in large open areas like you see in Texas, Arizona, CA. More densely populated areas have more traffic and drive more slowly. Now a comparison in US cities to similarly sized Euro cities would make sense. That is where the superiority of roundabouts would show up clearly.

If "traffic fatalities are highest where people drive fastest" you'd find the most fatalities on limited access highways. Yet we don't. There's more to it.

-jk

[Furniture]

Europe is a whole different driving culture, different vehicle make-up, and way different concepts of distance.

I agree with this. I lived in Birmingham UK for a good part of my life. London is 100 miles away. We hardly ever went there. Now I live a little under 100 miles from Charlotte here in the US. We will sometimes go to Charlotte for breakfast. I also lived in Eindhoven in the Netherlands. Take a look on a map its a hour or so drive either direction to either Belgium or Germany. The people we rented our apartment from had NEVER left Holland. Crazy stuff.

[rsvman]

If speed were the main issue, shouldn't the Autobahn be the most dangerous place in the world to drive?

[OldPhiKap]

If speed were the main issue, shouldn't the Autobahn be the most dangerous place in the world to drive?

Not in my experience. Contrary to American perception, the autobahn has limited “no limit” zones. And, almost everybody follows the rules — stay to the right except when passing, follow posted speed limits, no passing on the right.

Driving on the autobahn is probably the safest highway driving I’ve experienced. FWIW. I feel a hell of a lot safer driving on the autobahn than, say, anywhere close to Atlanta or Charlotte.

[JBDuke]

I've locked this thread at least temporarily, as it is a public policy discussion, which is generally not allowed on DBR boards. I'll discuss it with my fellow moderators, and if we come to the conclusion that this thread is allowed, I will reopen it with a follow-on post.

[JasonEvans]

The mod team has made the decision to reopen this thread... but with a stern warning to keep it from being partisan or delving too deeply into public policy.

Everyone should be aware that if their post gets too acrimonious or goes too far into public policy, they will be hit with a serious infraction without any further warnings.

Proceed with caution.

[bundabergdevil]

The mod team has made the decision to reopen this thread... but with a stern warning to keep it from being partisan or delving too deeply into public policy.

Everyone should be aware that if their post gets too acrimonious or goes too far into public policy, they will be hit with a serious infraction without any further warnings.

Proceed with caution.

You heard the man, everyone. Buckle up!

[OldPhiKap]

181E8325-1F0F-4FCE-B800-0750157B5819.jpg

[CameronBornAndBred]

How's this for irony.

Traffic accident statistics on signs may actually cause more crashes
The number of crashes on Texan roads increased when electronic signs were used to display driving fatality figures

https://www.newscientist.com/article...#ixzz7Ro1WTbcA

[BigWayne]

How's this for irony.



https://www.newscientist.com/article...#ixzz7Ro1WTbcA

We have traffic signs in my area that are dark a lot of the time. There is one particular one that will sometimes create a backup if they put the most mundane info, such as drive times to points ahead. There are apparently a lot of people that can't read and drive at the same time.

If they put an unusual warning like an amber alert or a future road closure, it will always create a backup unless it is an extremely low traffic time.

[budwom]

Not in my experience. Contrary to American perception, the autobahn has limited “no limit” zones. And, almost everybody follows the rules — stay to the right except when passing, follow posted speed limits, no passing on the right.

Driving on the autobahn is probably the safest highway driving I’ve experienced. FWIW. I feel a hell of a lot safer driving on the autobahn than, say, anywhere close to Atlanta or Charlotte.

Yeah, something we noted driving in France a few years ago, people drove incredibly fast (100 mph was common) but as you say, everyone seemed to follow the rules, ie. keeping right except to pass. Driving in the Wilmington NC area, people tend to park themselves in the left lane no matter what...and Wilmington has a bad reputation for accident rates.