Said it last season, I'll say it again
You have to beat who's in front of you. All of that ranking this and that don't mean jack
So basically the only difference between this year’s schedule and last year’s is that we are in a preseason tourney.
Last year we played Kentucky, Gonzaga, and at Ohio State. This year we play Kansas, Ohio State (home), and Iowa. If anything, that group of games last year was tougher than this year’s games. We just for whatever reason didn’t participate a preseason tournament in last year.
Yes, the PK80 is the biggest difference between this season’s schedule and last. But it’s a big difference - potential games against Gonzaga and another top 25-ish team in addition to the three games you’ve already mentioned. Five big opponents in the OCC versus three, plus the additional exposure/game pressure of traveling to an another big tournament.
Ok, I'm gonna take a stab at guessing a bit of how the PK85 bracket will play out.
Duke's PK85 bracket with last season's Kenpom rank/this season's Torvik projection:
Gonzaga - 1 / 1
Duke - 8 / 5
Purdue - 14 / 28
Xavier - 53 / 21
Florida - 59 / 26
West Virginia - 66 / 29
Oregon State - 233 / 269
Portland St - 256 / 294
As you can see, all three of Xavier, Florida, and West Virginia are projected to be better this year than they were last year. Last seasons was unusually bad for those three teams that are typically bouncing around the back half of the top 25. Purdue figures to be worse than it was a year ago, though still quite good.
Now, I know no one officially talks about it, but we all know that these tournaments do a bit of informal seeding in order to set up the best matchups. Duke and Gonzaga are sure to be on opposite sides of the draw to potentially face each other in the final. The nice thing is that these projected rankings break down very evenly. We have 2 teams clearly at the top and 2 clearly at the bottom. Then, we have a bunching of 4 teams where they are largely equal. It really works great to do something like this:
Gonzaga - Portland State
Purdue - West Virginia
Florida - Xavier
Duke - Oregon State
I think the tourney (in conjunction with ESPN) will ty to get a Purdue - Gonzaga second round matchup so they can pit Drew Timme against the monster that is Purdue's Zach Edey. Duke and Florida have some history and I think the TV talking heads will want to pit Jon Scheyer against Florida's new coach Todd Golden in a hotly contested contest to be the best young Jewish coach in the sport. West Virginia and Xavier might ruin those matchups... whatever. In any event, I am super confident about Duke getting Oregon State, which is a P6 opponent, even if it is far and away the worst P6 team in the country (I don't think any others are ranked outside the top 200.
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
I wonder whether Scheyer will step in and ask not to play Oregon State in order to have a better resume game in the first round. There've been past tournaments where it at least appeared that Coach K did something similar... for instance, even when we're the "No. 1 seed" in the Maui, we haven't played Chaminade in the first round, as is tradition. I'd much rather have a game that could potentially be a "low Q1" opportunity come season's end in the first round against a team like West Virginia or Florida.
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Trinity BS 2012; University of Michigan PhD 2018
Duke Chronicle, Sports Online Editor: 2010-2012
K-Ville Blue Tenting 2009-2012
Unofficial Brian Zoubek Biographer
If you have questions about Michigan Basketball/Football, I'm your man!
I agree. I was just implying that the scheduling approach this year isn't really any different than normal, other than that we got to play in a tournament this year and we didn't last year. Of course the tournament makes a big difference.
I suspect that the 2021 schedule was a function of lingering questions about COVID (so not wanting to travel to a tournament) than it was about changing the way we do our schedules.
So, basically, folks are just excited about this coming year's tough schedule simply because we're back to playing in a tournament.
Any speculation on which ACC opponent comes to Cameron on 12/3? It's clear that our first ACC game is on football championship Saturday. It's not going to be a road game at any opponent where there's a possibility they could have a conflict, and it's not going to be a big TV draw. I haven't looked at ND's schedule announcements, but that series has been early in the process recently. It could be BC as well.
Here it is from the official social media account
Coach K on Kyle Singler - "What position does he play? ... He plays winner."
"Duke is never the underdog" - Quinn Cook
Not a fan of us not playing a tune-up game after the exam break before our first ACC game. Looks like the team is going to have almost 3 weeks off from games from Dec 10 until the start of the ACC season (likely Dec 27 or 28).
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
What are the odds that the first ACC game is on Saturday, December 3rd?
I don't think this is much of a pull from an audience perspective, but agree with everything else in the post. I wish it was though!
Signed,
Someone Jewish
P.S. I did not realize Mike White moved on from Florida. I recall that great game a few years back against them (was it the Zion year?). It went down to the wire and we barely pulled it out.
(Edit: and I recognize you are in the tribe as well.)
Last edited by Bluedog; 07-21-2022 at 01:26 PM.
Shalom! I am excited to see the contest between best young Yids on the sideline and hope the one in Duke Blue proves to be the big macher on campus.
That game was in the PK80 and featured the "Zombie Duke" team with Grayson Allen, Gary Trent Jr., Trevon Duval, Marvin Bagley III, and Wendell Carter Jr. That team was very odd. They would look dead for large portions of the game and then flip a switch. It was a great game, if a little too stressful.
We could play against a team after exams instead of 12/3. We did fine against VT last year in the first game.
Any game during bowl week isn't going to be a top opponent--probably @Clemson or @GT. It's only going to be on ACCN or Bally Sports South. It's easy to forget we originally had 2 road games during the break last year before COVID hit the team. I'm glad we ended up beating both opponents anyway.
The squad announcing the aforementioned schedule. But... spoiler alert, there's a secret scrimmage! Why isn't there more information out about this?
link