NBA Playoffs 2022

[Steven43]

The Dubs arguably have 3.5 stars this year, which is a difference….and a group with strong cohesion.

I hope it’s a good series but I’m still Dubs in 6.

Yep, Warriors in 6, and maybe even 5. The more I’ve been analyzing it the better GS seems. They really are quite deep, and that’s without Wiseman being available.

Their offense, according to my eye test only, has just seemed significantly more cohesive and efficient than that of the Celtics. Boston is struggling on that end, and it’s quite concerning.

I’m still hopeful that the Celtics can win a couple of games somewhat comfortable (5 pts or more) and then steal two that they probably shouldn’t have won. But that’s more of a hope than an honest assessment.

[elvis14]

The Celtics don't really have a chance.

I see the Warriors getting swept. 4 games, none of which are even close.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I see the Warriors getting swept. 4 games, none of which are even close.

REVERSE-REVERSE CURSE!

We are through the looking glass, people.

[moonpie23]

draymond greene whining in 5, 4, 3, 2, ....


for punching someone else in the nads...

[elvis14]

REVERSE-REVERSE CURSE!

We are through the looking glass, people.

I was worried that SouthernDukie had messed up the space/time continuum and I had to reverse his reverse to set things right. Now we can all relax, sit back and watch the game tonight! You're all very welcome!

[Steven43]

REVERSE-REVERSE CURSE!

We are through the looking glass, people.

JFK — really good movie with some excellent acting.

[kshepinthehouse]

draymond greene whining in 5, 4, 3, 2, ...


for punching someone else in the nads...

If someone put their nads on your head would you punch them??😂😂😂😂

[bundabergdevil]

If someone put their nads on your head would you punch them??😂😂😂😂

Yes. Flagrantly.

[mkirsh]

Nope. Jordan is 6’6” and Tatum is 6’8” or 6’9”. Its not about size, it’s about style. As far as basketball goes I prefer agility, great handles, incredible footwork, and breathtaking athleticism over brute strength.

I’m not saying James isn’t a great athlete; he clearly is. I’m simply saying I dislike his propensity — especially in the past 6 or 7 years after he bulked up dramatically — to purposely slam into defenders trying to go through them (and draw a cheap foul) rather than around them. It’s an ugly style of basketball and I don’t like to watch it.

By the way I’m a huge Zion Williamson fan (I have defended and supported him as much as anyone on DBR) and I don’t think he plays the way James does. Most of Zion’s highlight-reel dunks — the things that most fans love the most about his game — have been on breakaways where he was running free.

Is it just Lebron, or do you feel the same way about other players throughout the years that played with physicality? Like Barkley, Ewing, Karl Malone, Larry Johnson, Alonzo Mourning, Shaq, Kenrick Perkins, Dwight Howard, Marc Gasol. Embiid? Is it just a preference for guard play? Not trying to pile on, legitimately curious. In general basketball has moved away from the gladiator style of the 80s to a more FIBA-style flowy continuity game, which I prefer as well, but physicality still is required at certain spots on the floor and Lebron basically defies position so he is hard to fit into a specific mold.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I am so excited. I am going to Game 3. These Celtics have a wonderful core and an even better defense.

But they're playing the Warriors. The Old Dogs. The Dynasty. It's a helluva uphill battle. And here are my quick thoughts.

1. The Celtics are playing with house money. Although they are statistically the best team in the NBA (at least since January), they are new to the Finals. If they lose, it's a great learning experience. If they win, a potential new dynasty is born. It's house money. Have fun with it.

2. The Celtics will go hunting...and the Dubs will not. The NBA Playoffs should just be called 'Open Season', because every possession a player goes hunting. And the Celtics have been hunting since Round 1. They targeted everyone not named Durant in the first round, Grayson Allen in the second round, and Robinson/Vincent in the third round. They will go after Curry and Poole, and it will likely be Tatum (with a little Brown) looking to attack those guys. And Tatum has been great at this; if the Dubs double, he'll pass out. If the Dubs keep Curry on Tatum, Tatum will feast. The Dubs, on the other hand, hunt, but not as frequently as the other teams. And, against the Celtics, it's tough to hunt. Their top 7 guys are all plus defenders. Butler hunted White in the last series, but there isn't anyone who can hunt White on the Dubs.

3. The Dubs may be favored, but I like the starting line-up of the Celtics.

Smart <<< Curry
Brown >= Klay
Tatum >>> Wiggins
Horford < Draymond
RWIII > Looney

For the bench, GSW has more depth, especially with Poole. But the Celtics only play three players in Grant Williams (great 3-and-D player), White (great D player), and Pritchard (excellent 3 point shooter and Dubs hunting target #1). The Celtics will ride their starters + Grant/White for Smart/RWIII insurance.

[mkirsh]

I am re-watching GSW send DAL on summer vacation and reflecting on this conversation here. It has none of the basketball analysis I come to DBR for. Anyone got some insight or should I just go reread mkirsh’s breakdown on the OTB of the decision points PGA tour players are facing today with the disruption of their league?

Is this a shout out or a shot across the bow? I'm going to assume good intentions...

For me it comes down to:
1) Health, particularly the Celts. Are they going to have Time Lord and Smart? The Warriors are a deeper team, so if the Celtics are down key players I'm not sure they can hang over a long series. (I know the just beat Miami with Smart and Williams in and out of the line up, but just barely and the Heat a) are not as deep as GS, and b) really missed Herro)

2) Defensive match-ups. Is Klay back to being a plus defender? If so and he and Wiggins can bottle up Tatum and Brown and Green can take Horford/G Williams and they let Smart shoot open shots, then big advantage GS. But if Klay isn't up to it and the Dubs have to double Tatum then the edge goes to Boston (assuming #3 below). On the other end, Smart usually guards the other team's best player, but do they put him on Curry? If not, who takes him, White? Boston's D has been so good, but I do worry about how they stop Curry in this series.

3) Making shots. It's NBA cliche to say it's a "make or miss league", but cliche doesn't prevent it from being true. Tatum's normally reliable sidestep 3 has been missing from the last 2 playoff series, and Klay has been super streaky, so which of those players hits more 3s will be a key factor in the series. And we know Smart will continue to get a ton of open looks, and we also know he's going to keep chucking them up. Will he make them? Will White stay white-hot (see what I did there!) to provide extra offensive punch for the Celts?

I think both coaches are excellent, so I also look forward to the series as it goes along. I'm rooting for the Celtics, but think the Warriors have more weapons and thus a larger margin for error and will win the series. Hoping for everyone to be at full strength and the series to go 6 or 7!

[SouthernDukie]

I was worried that SouthernDukie had messed up the space/time continuum and I had to reverse his reverse to set things right. Now we can all relax, sit back and watch the game tonight! You're all very welcome!

And with that, Elvis has left the building.

Legit comments coming now: While I think these teams are pretty evenly matched, the experience is heavily weighted in favor of GS. And I’m one who puts a lot of stock in battle tested experience. Add to that the current health equation, which also certainly favors the Warriors. And of course home court, which is helpful more times than not (although the Celtics have made a shambles of that during these playoffs). When you put all those things together, it certainly seems like Golden State should be favored.

So if I had to legitimately bet a large sum of money on the series, I would probably say Warriors in five or six.

[Steven43]

I am so excited. I am going to Game 3. These Celtics have a wonderful core and an even better defense.

WOW, you’re going to Game 3. Sweet!!

I went to Game 6 (in the Garden) of the Milwaukee series. I felt partially responsible for the Celtics loss, so I’m wary of attending any of the Finals games in Boston.

Anyway, I hope you have fun and Go Celtics!

P. S. Hopefully, the series will be 1-1 by the time Game 3 comes.

[elvis14]

And with that, Elvis has left the building.

Legit comments coming now: While I think these teams are pretty evenly matched, the experience is heavily weighted in favor of GS. And I’m one who puts a lot of stock in battle tested experience. Add to that the current health equation, which also certainly favors the Warriors. And of course home court, which is helpful more times than not (although the Celtics have made a shambles of that during these playoffs). When you put all those things together, it certainly seems like Golden State should be favored.

So if I had to legitimately bet a large sum of money on the series, I would probably say Warriors in five or six.

I like the experience of the GSW but there are some matchups that favor the Celtics. I really think how the games are called will play a huge role. If the games are called close, it favors the GSW. If they don't call anything, it favors Boston. One thing that I have noticed during the playoffs is that Steph Curry's defense is MUCH improved.

I have no idea who is going to win this series...and I LOVE that!

[Steven43]

I like the experience of the GSW but there are some matchups that favor the Celtics. I really think how the games are called will play a huge role. If the games are called close, it favors the GSW. If they don't call anything, it favors Boston. One thing that I have noticed during the playoffs is that Steph Curry's defense is MUCH improved.

I have no idea who is going to win this series...and I LOVE that!

Yes, Golden State has a MASSIVE advantage in Finals experience, including the players, Coach Kerr, and the organization overall. And on top of that they have better current health, are more well-rested, and have homecourt advantage. For crissakes, does Boston even have a chance in this series???

P.S. I attended Game 6 of the MIAMI v Boston series, not Milwaukee.

[jimsumner]

How much of a factor will fatigue be? The Celtics had to dig a lot deeper to get here and as others have noted, they rarely go deeper than eight.

Or will GSW be rusty, allowing Boston to steal game one on the road?

[darthur]

I know this thread is all about reverse-jinxing rather than any actual takes, but one interesting take I haven't seen linked:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...errating-them/

Vegas likes the Warriors, and analytics like the Celtics. We'll start finding out who's right soon, but gooooo Warriors! (Go Tatum too, just not as much!)

[bundabergdevil]

If this vaunted Celtics defense keeps leaving Curry wide open for 3...

[SouthernDukie]

This early pace definitely favors GS.

[mkirsh]

This early pace definitely favors GS.

So does the Celts taking half of their shots from 3, most by Marcus Smart. That is not how the Celts need to play to win.