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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by FastBreak View Post
    Would you rather have an inexperienced front court or back court? My guess is that we rather have experience in the back court. More likely to play low-turnover, facilitate smartly and have good shooting to open up the floor for the inexperienced front court. If Lively can be the rim protector he seems to be, and Flip/Mitchell are adequate rebounders, the experience question may be less important.

    From my eye, Moore was a stabilizing force on the floor. He kept the team calm and provided leadership when we had those rough first halves. Will Roach and/or (Keels I hope) provide that next year? That may be the ingredient we will need most...
    I would probably rather have an inexperienced backcourt. Inexperience in the frontcourt means guys who may struggle with the physicality in the post and may not be ready to handle the defensive assignments on the perimeter (see freshman Mark Williams, for both issues).

    But, that's not likely to be what we have. So I'll take experience wherever I can get it. Hopefully we'll add an experienced backup big that can at least help in practice and provide some insurance in games.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Here's a more interesting question though: if Trevor and Wendell were to shock the world and both return, could we sell Dariq on being Scottie Barnes, a super-sub off the bench playing 2-4 and still getting 20+ minutes per game? Full disclosure: I think the chances of this happening are miniscule. But given a Keels return is becoming slightly more likely, it's now not a zero probability that something crazy like that happens, just very very close to 0
    I've never totally understood Moore as an NBA prospect, I don't know what position he would thrive in there. So I guess I would put Keels and Moore returning at under 50%, but not "very very close to 0". I think the NIL stuff is gonna change the calculus a little in some of the borderline cases than what we've been used to.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yes, IF Keels and Roach come back, that would rival UNC for the best backcourt in the ACC, and would certainly have the potential to be the best. I'm not sure I'd go as far as expecting a Kennard-level jump in 3pt%, but I could definitely see him getting a 7-8% bump (which has been the typical frosh-to-soph jump for few recent returning top-tier Duke guard/wings). That would make him a 38-39% 3pt shooter, which combined with his 50+% 2pt % would be fantastic.

    I'd look for a Nolan Smith or Wendell Moore type of soph-to-junior jump for Roach.

    Those two along with Whitehead on the perimeter would would be the best perimeter trio in the ACC. And we'd have a talented, but completely inexperienced, frontcourt. Lots of potential there. But at least if we got those two guards back, we'd have something solid to work with on the perimeter.

    That said, I'll remain cautious until we hear something from Keels himself.
    I would expect Keels to test the waters but if he does not get a first round guarantee - he may elect to come back. We shall see. A lot depends on how engaged he has been as a student.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Here's a more interesting question though: if Trevor and Wendell were to shock the world and both return, could we sell Dariq on being Scottie Barnes, a super-sub off the bench playing 2-4 and still getting 20+ minutes per game? Full disclosure: I think the chances of this happening are miniscule. But given a Keels return is becoming slightly more likely, it's now not a zero probability that something crazy like that happens, just very very close to 0
    Although it's a bit outdated for today's youngsters, this was Corey Maggette's path to the NBA as a 1st round draft pick as Duke's first OAD. Maggette had a long and $$$ rich career, who was a dynamic, athletic scorer from the wing.

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by MarkD83 View Post
    OK...hot of the rumor wire...All of us that post on DBR will try to be back next year.
    I’m taking my talents to South Beach.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by FastBreak View Post
    Would you rather have an inexperienced front court or back court? My guess is that we rather have experience in the back court. More likely to play low-turnover, facilitate smartly and have good shooting to open up the floor for the inexperienced front court. If Lively can be the rim protector he seems to be, and Flip/Mitchell are adequate rebounders, the experience question may be less important.

    From my eye, Moore was a stabilizing force on the floor. He kept the team calm and provided leadership when we had those rough first halves. Will Roach and/or (Keels I hope) provide that next year? That may be the ingredient we will need most...
    An old, long-retired coach used to say there are three phases of the game: offense, defense, and communication. Experience in the frontcourt would seem more important for defensive communication than experience in the backcourt is for offensive communication (comparatively speaking).

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    If we’re going to start dreaming of this world where Roach, Keels and Moore all are back, I think in that scenario we have a repeat of this season where Roach and Keels take turns coming off the bench over the course of the season. That would be amazing if it happens but is so unlikely it’s not even worth getting our hopes up. Realistically I’m hoping for Roach and one of the other two, most likely Keels. Those two plus Schutt and Blakes off the bench give us a great backcourt, with Whitehead getting some “guard” minutes as well.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    If we’re going to start dreaming of this world where Roach, Keels and Moore all are back, I think in that scenario we have a repeat of this season where Roach and Keels take turns coming off the bench over the course of the season. That would be amazing if it happens but is so unlikely it’s not even worth getting our hopes up. Realistically I’m hoping for Roach and one of the other two, most likely Keels. Those two plus Schutt and Blakes off the bench give us a great backcourt, with Whitehead getting some “guard” minutes as well.
    I'm with UC on this one. I think Wendell would be rolling the dice if he returns. He really improved this season and I don't know if he can duplicate the 41% three point shooting. He was a good defender, usually guarding the opponents best perimeter player and his assists were pretty good. It would be a shock if Mark returns and if he did, what happens to Lively's minutes. We could see a de-commit if Mark returns. I like our lineup with Keels. That gives us two options at the point and both he and Jeremy can play the 2G, and so can Dariq. That leaves Flip and Mitchell at the 4.

    GoDuke!

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    If Wendell returns it wouldn’t be to improve his draft stock (though that may happen a bit). It would be a decision made because he loves Duke and wants to enjoy another year and get his degree, similar to Grayson after his sophomore year or Singler after his junior. It’s rare but it does happen.

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    I've never totally understood Moore as an NBA prospect, I don't know what position he would thrive in there. So I guess I would put Keels and Moore returning at under 50%, but not "very very close to 0". I think the NIL stuff is gonna change the calculus a little in some of the borderline cases than what we've been used to.
    "Thrive" is perhaps not a realistic expectation for Moore. I mean, we're talking about a late 1st/early 2nd round prospect. Those guys aren't expected to "thrive." But they can still establish themselves as long-time NBA starters, and even sometimes exceed that (see Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, for example). As for Moore's position/role, he's almost the quintessential "3 and D" wing in the NBA. He can competently guard 4 positions, and his 40% 3pt shooting this year finally has caught up with his great FT shooting to suggest he'll be a legitimate "3" along with the "and D". I see that as kind of his floor: a productive role player and potential starter on the wing, playing off the ball and providing defense and 3pt shooting.

    And that's if his offense doesn't continue to grow. He's still very young (comparable in age to some freshmen), so there is room for upside. But even the floor is likely to earn him millions of dollars in the NBA.

    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    If we’re going to start dreaming of this world where Roach, Keels and Moore all are back, I think in that scenario we have a repeat of this season where Roach and Keels take turns coming off the bench over the course of the season. That would be amazing if it happens but is so unlikely it’s not even worth getting our hopes up. Realistically I’m hoping for Roach and one of the other two, most likely Keels. Those two plus Schutt and Blakes off the bench give us a great backcourt, with Whitehead getting some “guard” minutes as well.
    Yeah, I agree. I don't think it's realistic to believe that all 3 of our perimeter players will return. I am hopeful for any two of the three. But I'll take at least one, and then hope we can fill in the other spot with a transfer.

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    If Wendell returns it wouldn’t be to improve his draft stock (though that may happen a bit). It would be a decision made because he loves Duke and wants to enjoy another year and get his degree, similar to Grayson after his sophomore year or Singler after his junior. It’s rare but it does happen.
    Don’t forget NIL money. That likely was the deciding factor for Bacot returning.

    But what the hell do I know.
    "This is the best of all possible worlds."
    Dr. Pangloss - Candide

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    "Thrive" is perhaps not a realistic expectation for Moore. I mean, we're talking about a late 1st/early 2nd round prospect. Those guys aren't expected to "thrive." But they can still establish themselves as long-time NBA starters, and even sometimes exceed that (see Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, for example). As for Moore's position/role, he's almost the quintessential "3 and D" wing in the NBA. He can competently guard 4 positions, and his 40% 3pt shooting this year finally has caught up with his great FT shooting to suggest he'll be a legitimate "3" along with the "and D". I see that as kind of his floor: a productive role player and potential starter on the wing, playing off the ball and providing defense and 3pt shooting.

    And that's if his offense doesn't continue to grow. He's still very young (comparable in age to some freshmen), so there is room for upside. But even the floor is likely to earn him millions of dollars in the NBA.



    Yeah, I agree. I don't think it's realistic to believe that all 3 of our perimeter players will return. I am hopeful for any two of the three. But I'll take at least one, and then hope we can fill in the other spot with a transfer.
    I mean his floor is technically g league or euro league right? Which is where many people at the end of the first/second end up.

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    I mean his floor is technically g league or euro league right? Which is where many people at the end of the first/second end up.
    Not really. They usually get NBA contracts for a couple of million.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Not really. They usually get NBA contracts for a couple of million.
    Yeah. NBA minimum has skyrocketed to just shy of a million dollars a year. There's no chump change contracts anymore.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    I mean his floor is technically g league or euro league right? Which is where many people at the end of the first/second end up.
    I think its most likely his floor is a 10 yr NBA ve who's plays 10-15 mins off the bench on a good team. Not everyone has to be stars to stick around for a long time in the NBA. Moore is 20 and has steadily improved every year. He's a 40pct shooter ( more likely 35-36 atm) can defend 3 positions and can create come off the bounce. Thats a NBA player. I get guys want guys want guys to come back but down playing what they can do is not the way to go and will only let you down. Moore is seen as a mid 1st pick and at worst will be a 30-35 pick. NBA loves wing size guys who can dribble shoot and pass and Wendell is that to a T

  16. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by cbolden1 View Post
    I think its most likely his floor is a 10 yr NBA ve who's plays 10-15 mins off the bench on a good team. Not everyone has to be stars to stick around for a long time in the NBA. Moore is 20 and has steadily improved every year. He's a 40pct shooter ( more likely 35-36 atm) can defend 3 positions and can create come off the bounce. Thats a NBA player. I get guys want guys want guys to come back but down playing what they can do is not the way to go and will only let you down. Moore is seen as a mid 1st pick and at worst will be a 30-35 pick. NBA loves wing size guys who can dribble shoot and pass and Wendell is that to a T
    Yea I just don’t think someone can be a possible second round pick and also say their floor is a 10 year vet. Just the nature of being a second round pick makes them a lot more likely to not make the roster, play in the g league, etc.

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by cbolden1 View Post
    I think its most likely his floor is a 10 yr NBA ve who's plays 10-15 mins off the bench on a good team. Not everyone has to be stars to stick around for a long time in the NBA. Moore is 20 and has steadily improved every year. He's a 40pct shooter ( more likely 35-36 atm) can defend 3 positions and can create come off the bounce. Thats a NBA player. I get guys want guys want guys to come back but down playing what they can do is not the way to go and will only let you down. Moore is seen as a mid 1st pick and at worst will be a 30-35 pick. NBA loves wing size guys who can dribble shoot and pass and Wendell is that to a T
    I think perhaps you and I have very different definitions of the word "floor."

    A ten year NBA career would be a phenomenal success for any Duke player not named Elton, Grant, Kyrie, or Carlos.

    (Yes, there are other Duke players with long careers, but I would say those were "phenomenal successes" compared to expectation - JJ, Shane, Mike Jr).

    I'd say a ten year career for Wendell would be pretty close to his ceiling.

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I think perhaps you and I have very different definitions of the word "floor."

    A ten year NBA career would be a phenomenal success for any Duke player not named Elton, Grant, Kyrie, or Carlos.

    (Yes, there are other Duke players with long careers, but I would say those were "phenomenal successes" compared to expectation - JJ, Shane, Mike Jr).

    I'd say a ten year career for Wendell would be pretty close to his ceiling.
    I think it's a ten year NBA career would be a phenomenal success for any Duke player not drafted in the lottery. The expectation for being drafted in the lottery is you are part of the rotation for your first and second contact (and likely a third contract, which should add up to 10 years).

    To me, Carlos Boozer absolutely exceeded those expectations. Seth Curry and Gary Trent Jr are doing the same.

    And yes, there are a few busts who are lottery picks (and top 5 picks) who never came close to the 10 year mark.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    I mean his floor is technically g league or euro league right? Which is where many people at the end of the first/second end up.
    I don't think we can lump late 1st/early 2nd into the same bucket. There are a variety of types of late 1st/early 2nd picks. Some are Euros who are draft-and-stash. Some are bigs with limited range. Some are littles with either questionable athleticism or questionable PG skills. Some are undersized bigs. Some are high-volume wings who you hope can adapt to a new role. Some are low-ceiling, low-risk 3-and-D guys. The likelihood of success varies a lot by type of draftee. Those 3-and-D guys usually stick around the league for years, because that skillset translates very readily. They aren't expected to create their own offense, and if they can shoot they can shoot. Moore has the physical traits and has shown the skill set to be a 3-and-D wing. Which means he's a pretty high-floor prospect. You can be pretty confident that he'll fill a role as at least a backup 3-and-D wing. And that will play in the NBA. He isn't going to have to change his game to fit a new role, which is why most guys fail at the next level: their skill set doesn't translate and they fail to make the adjustment to fill a different role. Moore is already doing exactly what he'd be asked to do in the NBA: defend multiple positions and make open 3s.

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    I think it's a ten year NBA career would be a phenomenal success for any Duke player not drafted in the lottery. The expectation for being drafted in the lottery is you are part of the rotation for your first and second contact (and likely a third contract, which should add up to 10 years).

    To me, Carlos Boozer absolutely exceeded those expectations. Seth Curry and Gary Trent Jr are doing the same.

    And yes, there are a few busts who are lottery picks (and top 5 picks) who never came close to the 10 year mark.
    Well, yes, that's what I'm basically saying. I don't think very many Duke players would have their "floor" be a ten year NBA career.

    It is very difficult to stick around ten years in the NBA. I'd be very pleasantly surprised if Wendell Moore was one of those who does.

    Edit: a Google search says the average NBA career is 4.5 years. Ten years is a nice run.
    Last edited by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15; 04-14-2022 at 10:01 AM. Reason: Google!

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