MBB: Duke Comings and Goings

[scottdude8]

Yea I just don’t think someone can be a possible second round pick and also say their floor is a 10 year vet. Just the nature of being a second round pick makes them a lot more likely to not make the roster, play in the g league, etc.

There's also a huge difference between an early and late second round pick. Early second round picks have been getting guaranteed contracts as of late... I know Isaiah Livers got one from the Pistons this past year, and I believe Vern and Tre both got them the year before. Now, they're of course guaranteed for a much shorter time frame (sometimes just a year) compared to first round picks, but that still means at least a million dollars in your pocket. And every time someone says "well that isn't that much", I remind myself that the US median income is around 50k (very approximate)... so (ignoring taxes) the average American would have to work 20 years to make the amount of money that an early second round pick would make, at minimum, from that contract. That is very significant.

I think moving forward the question with these decisions is going to be more about whether more time in college can improve someone's draft stock, as opposed to where exactly they're projected. Trevor would be drafted this year for sure, probably at latest in the mid second-round, and thus would be on the border of one of those guaranteed contracts. However, he could very conceivably have an Ivey/Davis/Murray like jump in Year 2 and go into the lottery, and increase his first contract's value by millions of dollars. If you contrast that with Wendell, I think most of us agree that he's likely a borderline first/second round pick this year or next, unless he takes an Ochai Agbaji like jump (which is possible!). If there is less possibility of improving the value of that first contract by returning, the risk starts to outweigh the reward even with NIL (unless you're a social media savant able to get into the 7 figures).

Now, in the past, players had to weigh that against the reality of earning ZERO money as a college athlete and the risk of injury. But with NIL and the ability to earn 6 figures (at least at a place like Duke) as a star collegiate athlete, that calculus changes considerably. I won't go through my "pot odds" analogy again since I'm sure I've bored everyone here with it enough, but that safety net of NIL makes a the worst case scenario much less scary, and is going to change the calculus significantly.

[CrazieDUMB]

Now, in the past, players had to weigh that against the reality of earning ZERO money as a college athlete and the risk of injury. But with NIL and the ability to earn 6 figures (at least at a place like Duke) as a star collegiate athlete, that calculus changes considerably. I won't go through my "pot odds" analogy again since I'm sure I've bored everyone here with it enough, but that safety net of NIL makes a the worst case scenario much less scary, and is going to change the calculus significantly.

I would also imagine that with NIL money it makes it much easier to afford the premiums on an insurance policy that would pay out in the event of an injury, so you can reduce the college injury risk by even more.

[sagegrouse]

I think it's a ten year NBA career would be a phenomenal success for any Duke player not drafted in the lottery. The expectation for being drafted in the lottery is you are part of the rotation for your first and second contact (and likely a third contract, which should add up to 10 years).

To me, Carlos Boozer absolutely exceeded those expectations. Seth Curry and Gary Trent Jr are doing the same.

And yes, there are a few busts who are lottery picks (and top 5 picks) who never came close to the 10 year mark.

His first two years out of Duke (2013-2015), he played in two NBA games each year and scored a total of three points. He became a roster player in 2015-2016, and the last two seasons he has started every game. Moreover, Seth's three-point percentage has been above 40 percent in every season. He is completing his seventh season an an NBA roster. His contract for $8 mil per year runs through 2023.

Seth was a late-developer out of both HS and college, starting at Liberty before transferring to Duke and then doing his time in the G League after Duke.

[flyingdutchdevil]

His first two years out of Duke (2013-2015), he played in two NBA games each year and scored a total of three points. He became a roster player in 2015-2016, and the last two seasons he has started every game. Moreover, Seth's three-point percentage has been above 40 percent in every season. He is completing his seventh season an an NBA roster. His contract for $8 mil per year runs through 2023.

Seth was a late-developer out of both HS and college, starting at Liberty before transferring to Duke and then doing his time in the G League after Duke.

Sorry, I'm not trying to be disrespectful, but what's the point of this post in the context of 10-year careers?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Sorry, I'm not trying to be disrespectful, but what's the point of this post in the context of 10-year careers?

He's an overachiever? He is not someone anyone would have pegged for a ten year career when he left Duke, but now it looks more likely than not?

[flyingdutchdevil]

He's an overachiever? He is not someone anyone would have pegged for a ten year career when he left Duke, but now it looks more likely than not?

This is true. Sagegrouse's post kinda seemed like a non-sequitur post...

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

This is true. Sagegrouse's post kinda seemed like a non-sequitur post...

I mean, it's the off-season. We go with what we got.

*Shrugs*

[arnie]

I mean, it's the off-season. We go with what we got.

*Shrugs*

And after 48 posts we still haven’t had a coming or going.

[Rich]

And after 48 posts we still haven’t had a coming or going.

We have a rule in my family called "traffic." When you're on the highway you can never, ever say something like, "Hey, we haven't hit any traffic" because that's the ultimate jinx and guaranteed to put us in a 30 min back up.

At least with respect to goings, I think that's a reasonable policy here.

[proelitedota]

And after 48 posts we still haven’t had a coming or going.

I'm coming.

Spoiler!

To Cameron.

Spoiler!

If Keels is not going.

[MCFinARL]

This is true. Sagegrouse's post kinda seemed like a non-sequitur post...

In defense of Sagegrouse, who probably does not need my assistance, I read the post not as a non-sequitur but as an amplification of/agreement with the post it responded to--essentially saying, yes, Seth Curry is a good example of someone who has exceeded expectations, and while we are talking about that, let's congratulate him.

[sagegrouse]

Sorry, I'm not trying to be disrespectful, but what's the point of this post in the context of 10-year careers?

I was just referencing the implicit "sub-thread" on Duke players who did well despite a non-lottery draft position (#30, I believe for Seth).

And, we have had this discussion before. Just because I quote your post, it doesn't mean that I am arguing with what you are saying.

[luvdahops]

I don't think we can lump late 1st/early 2nd into the same bucket. There are a variety of types of late 1st/early 2nd picks. Some are Euros who are draft-and-stash. Some are bigs with limited range. Some are littles with either questionable athleticism or questionable PG skills. Some are undersized bigs. Some are high-volume wings who you hope can adapt to a new role. Some are low-ceiling, low-risk 3-and-D guys. The likelihood of success varies a lot by type of draftee. Those 3-and-D guys usually stick around the league for years, because that skillset translates very readily. They aren't expected to create their own offense, and if they can shoot they can shoot. Moore has the physical traits and has shown the skill set to be a 3-and-D wing. Which means he's a pretty high-floor prospect. You can be pretty confident that he'll fill a role as at least a backup 3-and-D wing. And that will play in the NBA. He isn't going to have to change his game to fit a new role, which is why most guys fail at the next level: their skill set doesn't translate and they fail to make the adjustment to fill a different role. Moore is already doing exactly what he'd be asked to do in the NBA: defend multiple positions and make open 3s.

He also has the skills to be a secondary playmaker, which distinguish him from most 3-and-D wing prospects.

[CDu]

He also has the skills to be a secondary playmaker, which distinguish him from most 3-and-D wing prospects.

Yep, his floor is high. And there is the potential for more. I think he would need to get stronger with his dribble (he plays too upright on the dribble, which will get exploited at the next level) and make better decisions when dribbling (he seems to commit to a decision before he starts rather than being a more fluid, read and react player) to be a secondary playmaker. But it definitely isn’t out of the question!

[MarkD83]

I'm coming.

Spoiler!

To Cameron.

Spoiler!

If Keels is not going.

Since most of us are staying and it is the off-season we need to work on our "post-up" moves.

Spoiler!

Like these cool spoiler functions.

[JasonEvans]

There's also a huge difference between an early and late second round pick. Early second round picks have been getting guaranteed contracts as of late...

A few months back I looked at 2nd round picks from last year and found if you are rafted in the first 10 or so picks of the second round, you are getting at least a 2 year guaranteed deal that will average north of a million per year.

Obviously, it depends on what you negotiate, but the vast majority of guys taken in the first half of the second round get some kind of guaranteed deal. The NBA is actually paying 2nd rounders pretty decently now.

Here is a list of last year's 2nds rounders and the contracts they signed: (I put italics on the guys who did not get guaranteed NBA money)

31- Isaiah Todd - 4yr/$7mil, 3yr/$5mil guaranteed
32- Jeremiah Robinson-Earl - 4yr/$7.9mil, 2yr/$4mil guaranteed
33- Jason Preston - 3yr/$4.5mil, 2yr/$2.5mil guaranteed
34- Rokas Jokubaitis - intl player chose to continue to play overseas
35- Herbert Jones - 3yr/$5.3mil, 2yr/$3.4mil guaranteed
36- Miles McBride - 3yr/$4.3mil, 2yr/$2.5mil guaranteed
37- JT Thor - 4yr/$6.6mil, 2yr/$2.8mil guaranteed
38- Ayo Dosunmu - 2yr/$2.5mil, 1yr/$0.9mil guaranteed (he's been pretty good and could do well when he gets to be a quick RFA after 2 seasons)
39- Neemias Queta - 2-way contract, no guarantees
40- Jared Butler - 2yr/$2.5 mil, fully guaranteed
41- Joe Weiskmp - 2-way contract, no guarantees
42 - Isaiah Livers - 3yr/$4.5mil, 2yr/$2.6mil guaranteed
43- Greg Brown - 3yr/$4.3mil, 2yr/$2.5mil guaranteed
44- Kessler Edwards - 2-way contract, no guarantees (he will be getting a full contract soon, he's been a really nice sub for the Nets lately. Won't be shocked if he makes more than some late 1st rounders next season)
45- Juhann Begarin - intl player chose to continue to play overseas
46- Dalano Banton - 2yr/$2.5mil, fully guaranteed
47- David Johnson - 2-way contract, no guarantees
48- Sharife Cooper - 2-way contract, no guarantees
49- Marcus Zegarowski - did not sign a NBA deal, playing on a standard G-League contract
50- Filip Petrusev - playing overseas in Turkey
51- Brandon Boston - 3yr/$4.3mil, 2yr/$2.5mil guaranteed
52- Luka Garza - signed a 2-way contract, it was converted to a 2yr/$2.4mil, 1yr/$925k guaranteed contract in September
53- Charles Bassey - 3yr/$4.3mil, 1yr/$1mil guaranteed
54- Sandro Mamukelashvili - 2-way contract, no guarantees
55- Aaron Wiggins - signed a 2-way contract, it was converted to a 4yr/$6.3mil, 1yr/$1mil guaranteed contract last week. He's been great for OKC and will likely have a nice NBA career
56- Scottie Lewis - 2-way contract, no guarantees
57- Balsa Koprivica - playing overseas in Serbia
58- Jericho Sims - 2-way contract, no guarantees
59- Raiquan Grey - did not sign a NBA deal, playing on a standard G-League contract
60- Georgios Kalaitzakis - 3yr/$4.3mil, $462k guaranteed, was waived in December and currently playing on a G-League standard contract

Charles Bassey and Brandon Boston got really good deals considering their draft spots. They have really good agents!

-Jason "someone (me) had too much time on their hands this morning and put this together" Evans

[knicknut]

And after 48 posts we still haven’t had a coming or going.

Any chance we learn anything at the banquet tonight? Or is that about the team and seniors and any coming/going announcement would undermine that?

[scottdude8]

Any chance we learn anything at the banquet tonight? Or is that about the team and seniors and any coming/going announcement would undermine that?

I highly doubt anything will be said at the banquet, but I would guess the relative quiet from our program compared to others is driven by wanting to the timing of the banquet. I would guess we'll start getting some solid intel in the days following the banquet.

[CDu]

I highly doubt anything will be said at the banquet, but I would guess the relative quiet from our program compared to others is driven by wanting to the timing of the banquet. I would guess we'll start getting some solid intel in the days following the banquet.

Right, good chance somebody says something tomorrow.

[Kedsy]

I was just referencing the implicit "sub-thread" on Duke players who did well despite a non-lottery draft position (#30, I believe for Seth).

Seth Curry was not drafted at all. (#30 would have been first round, and would have been an amazing coup for an undersized shooting guard like Seth.) It's amazing what he has achieved as an undrafted free agent.