Conference Realignment 2022-23

[uh_no]

it was a fluid situation, but still a black day for college athletics

the Saudi fans were pumped though

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

the Saudi fans were pumped though

Hypermiling!

Am I doing it right?

[lotusland]

The ACC Commish doesn’t really have many options. He could forge some more fake alliances with the the BIG and wait to get punked again. Maybe he could get Clemson and FSU to swear a blood oath of fidelity to the ACC.

[budwom]

The ACC Commish doesn’t really have many options. He could forge some more fake alliances with the the BIG and wait to get punked again. Maybe he could get Clemson and FSU to swear a blood oath of fidelity to the ACC.

Yeah. Right now pretty much all he can do is hope. I don’t see how holding hands with other endangered conferences does us any good.

[Steven43]

Maybe he could get Clemson and FSU to swear a blood oath of fidelity to the ACC.

What will it take to make FSU a football power again? Their abrupt decline over the past five seasons has been surprising to me.

[Faison1]

What will it take to make FSU a football power again? Their abrupt decline over the past five seasons has been surprising to me.

Very true. If FSU and UM regained their former glory, a lot of the ACC problems would be solved. Or, at least improved.

[budwom]

Very true. If FSU and UM regained their former glory, a lot of the ACC problems would be solved. Or, at least improved.

Except they and Clemson would want to move to the SEC, the Glory Conference. Which they probably want to do anyway.

[AustinDevil]

If Duke athletics and/or the ACC partners with the Saudis I’m burning my Duke paraphernalia and never watching another game. I’m sure there are a lot of folks willing to launder their disgusting human rights record for money but I’m out.

For the record, I totally agree. Saudi sportswashing is not the answer. But also, for those saying there's nothing he can do, well, I'll grant that it's tough and that you can't blithely risk undoing the glue that is holding the conference together right now (the GOR), even though you also can't just sit there and think sub-$40M payouts are gonna work great for the next 12+ years while the P2 conferences pass and then *really* pass nine-digit payouts per school. Gotta try something innovative, and gotta be cutthroat if required in dealing with either the PAC or the Big XII or with individual schools within those conferences. His remarks yesterday were depressing because they indicate that he has no intention of trying.

[tommy]

What I don’t get is why the Saudis think that causing tremendous damage to the European golf tour, the PGA Tour, and possibly even the Ryder Cup and the Majors would endear them to the general public.

What the hell are they thinking?

I'm not sure that "endearing themselves to the general public" has ever been at the top of the Saudis' priority list.

[budwom]

For the record, I totally agree. Saudi sportswashing is not the answer. But also, for those saying there's nothing he can do, well, I'll grant that it's tough and that you can't blithely risk undoing the glue that is holding the conference together right now (the GOR), even though you also can't just sit there and think sub-$40M payouts are gonna work great for the next 12+ years while the P2 conferences pass and then *really* pass nine-digit payouts per school. Gotta try something innovative, and gotta be cutthroat if required in dealing with either the PAC or the Big XII or with individual schools within those conferences. His remarks yesterday were depressing because they indicate that he has no intention of trying.

the key factor is when (not "if" IMO) Clemson and FSU challenge the GOR and bolt for the exits...Saudi money is the least of our worries...(they have better ways of wasting their money, like the trillion dollar city MBS is trying to build in the desert).

[HayYou]

What will it take to make FSU a football power again? Their abrupt decline over the past five seasons has been surprising to me.

Ditto UF and Miami. I'm not 100 percent sure that the sec will want them.

There's a real possibility that FSU and Clemson don't REALLY want to join the sec . I could see a few 6-5 seasons in their futures if that happens. I think they are posturing for a bigger (aka inequal share) of conference revenues.

[Steven43]

I'm not sure that "endearing themselves to the general public" has ever been at the top of the Saudis' priority list.

I get what you’re saying. But then why in the heck are they spending billions of dollars on this LIV Tour farce if not as an attempt (misguided though it may be) to ingratiate themselves with non-Saudis? What is their objective?

I’m sorry for the thread digression. 😜

[AustinDevil]

I get what you’re saying. But then why in the heck are they spending billions of dollars on this LIV Tour farce if not as an attempt (misguided though it may be) to ingratiate themselves with non-Saudis? What is their objective?

I’m sorry for the thread digression. 😜

I am similarly curious what possible alternative explanation would make sense.

[cato]

What I don’t get is why the Saudis think that causing tremendous damage to the European golf tour, the PGA Tour, and possibly even the Ryder Cup and the Majors would endear them to the general public.

What the hell are they thinking?

The golfers that have jumped to LIV are either old and in the way or young and never going to be. Unless some real players start to defect, I wonder if all of this is a net positive for the PGA, since it highlights all of the amazing young talent on the tour.

[Kdogg]

Ditto UF and Miami. I'm not 100 percent sure that the sec will want them.

There's a real possibility that FSU and Clemson don't REALLY want to join the sec . I could see a few 6-5 seasons in their futures if that happens. I think they are posturing for a bigger (aka inequal share) of conference revenues.

I understand why those ACC schools would want to go to the B1G but why would the B1G want them? Every network person I’ve heard (John Skipper, Patrick Cakes, etc.) all say that they don’t increase the pot of money. UNC would. Notre Dame would. UVA would but not the FL schools or Clemson because those markets are already represented. These guys keep saying that the ACC is in a position of strength. I don’t buy that but see the logic. I would think the B1G would be more interested in a TX school and the Pacific Northwest eventually to basically cover the county.

The golfers that have jumped to LIV are either old and in the way or young and never going to be. Unless some real players start to defect, I wonder if all of this is a net positive for the PGA, since it highlights all of the amazing young talent on the tour.

If LIV is successful the damage is to the future development of golf. We won’t see that for a decade or more. LIV has no interest in developing the game just piggybacking it’s success. If golf loses popularity I wouldn’t be surprised to see them drop it in the future or with the next regime.

[budwom]

I understand why those ACC schools would want to go to the B1G but why would the B1G want them? Every network person I’ve heard (John Skipper, Patrick Cakes, etc.) all say that they don’t increase the pot of money. UNC would. UVA would but not the FL schools or Clemson because those markets are already represented. These guys keep saying that the ACC is in a position of strength. I don’t buy that but see the logic. I would think the B1G would be more interested in a TX school and the Pacifc Northwest eventually to basically cover the county.

I would think Clemson would much rather go to the SEC, not that they would necessarily be wanted. I just think they don't see themselves as a second tier football school. We'll see.

[evrim]

What I don’t get is why the Saudis think that causing tremendous damage to the European golf tour, the PGA Tour, and possibly even the Ryder Cup and the Majors would endear them to the general public.

What the hell are they thinking?

Anything is a better look than dismembering journalists in a foreign country over some dissenting opinions.

They are just trying to buy their way in to the world. Sadly given what i have seen in this country and others they will probably succeed since not many care about what is right or.wrong, just sticking it to other side.

[AustinDevil]

I understand why those ACC schools would want to go to the B1G but why would the B1G want them? Every network person I’ve heard (John Skipper, Patrick Cakes, etc.) all say that they don’t increase the pot of money. UNC would. UVA would but not the FL schools or Clemson because those markets are already represented. These guys keep saying that the ACC is in a position of strength. I don’t buy that but see the logic. I would think the B1G would be more interested in a TX school and the Pacific Northwest eventually to basically cover the county.

Does the highlighted language mean that you are saying these areas are already represented in the new "P2" world, because they are SEC states? If I'm understanding you correctly, that would be a legitimate consideration if we were talking about, say, a true pro sports league that integrates all of its marketing/TV efforts and money; there's no impetus for the NFC to build a presence in Jacksonville, or the AFC in New Orleans. However, that is not what we are talking about in college football, because B1G money (primarily Fox) and SEC money (primarily ESPN/CBS) are entirely separate pools, so the B1G money can potentially increase by getting eyeballs in current SEC states. That said, I doubt the B1G is all that interested in being sort of second-fiddle in SEC strongholds--and remember that that now includes Texas, where any school the B1G can get will definitely be a little sibling compared to SEC schools Texas and Texas A&M. All of this increases the attractiveness of the Virginia and North Carolina markets, of course.

[sagegrouse]

If Duke athletics and/or the ACC partners with the Saudis I’m burning my Duke paraphernalia and never watching another game. I’m sure there are a lot of folks willing to launder their disgusting human rights record for money but I’m out.

I wouldn't worry. How would you explain it to the Duke faculty?

[LeadingEdge]

Are we overreacting to the significance of the money gap? According to the financial information in the Knight-Newhouse College Athletics Database, in 2021, ACC schools collectively got 36% of their money from “NCAA/conference distributions, media rights, and post-season football.” Clicking backward a few years generally produces a 30% figure.

Warning: I’m bad at math. Let’s say the SEC and Big Ten start getting double the money the ACC gets. If you make the simplifying assumption that increased TV money does not raise or lower the other inflows to an athletic department, would not those mega conferences have 130% of the money ACC schools get? I realize bigger schools also probably get more donor contributions and ticket sales, so let’s presume they have budgets on average 150% of ACC schools.

It appears the biggest ACC athletic department budget is Florida State. It spent $122 million in 2021, and Clemson spent hundred $117. Private schools are in the database, but I doubt any private school in the ACC outspent that. The same database says BIG Ohio State spent $172 million, SEC Alabama $170 million, and B12 Texas $167 million. I presume those were the biggest spenders in their conferences.

We don’t know how much Wake Forest and Pittsburgh spent because they are private and semi-private respectively. I would be surprised if either spent more than NC State, which spent $78 million. Those two schools just made the ACC football championship game on those small budgets.

Two of the four teams that just made the Final Four are public. UNC spent $102 million total. Kansas spent $94 million total. I doubt Duke spent more than UNC. Certainly, Villanova spent the least of the four.

The most recent basketball national champions are, in reverse order, Kansas, Baylor, U.Va., Villanova, UNC, Villanova, and Duke. No mega spenders there.

These ACC schools finished in the top 20 of the 2021-2022 Directors Cup:
6. North Carolina – 1087.25
8. Notre Dame – 1021.00
11. Virginia – 942.50
14. Florida State – 910.00
17. NC State – 870.00
21. Duke – 849.50
That’s 30% of the top 20 from one of five power conferences.

Last year Clemson spent $117 million (yes, less than 2019). Clemson won the football national championship in 16-17 and 18-19, each time defeating Alabama. In 2017, Alabama outspent Clemson $159 million to $111 million. In 2019, Alabama outspent Clemson $185 million to $131 million.

I’m not saying a smaller TV deal isn’t a disadvantage. I’m not saying schools in the ACC outside of Clemson or Florida State can, should, or will be college football national championship contenders. But I think we are overreacting to these TV budget deals as casting non-Big Two schools to the dustbin.

This is mainly about psychology. Perhaps the psychology becomes that only the major schools in the Big Two conferences can compete and psychology affects recruiting decisions and booster giving. But if it’s psychology and not budget-performance reality that is driving things, you can defeat that with good factual arguments.

Look at all the money being spent on huge buyouts for schools that can’t state patient with the coach. I think schools can win with less if they operate their athletic departments well, have athletic directors with business savvy and strong management skills, and carefully pick good coaches and don’t ditch them rashly.