Conference Realignment 2022-23

[arnie]

I've spoken to a journalist covering this stuff and he says basketball is absolutely part of the conversation here. It is not only about football.

The conventional wisdom I am hearing is that if the SEC and Big Ten leave the NCAA, the basketball tournament among the remaining teams -- with the chance for Cinderella upsets and teams that have huge followings (but are non-entities in football) like Duke, Kansas, Gonzaga, Villanova, and so on -- would still be every bit as big a deal and would likely not suffer significantly in TV ratings.

This I also believe and have felt for awhile we’re destined for the Big East in b-ball. Just can’t figure out what happens to Duke Football.

[dukelifer]

I've spoken to a journalist covering this stuff and he says basketball is absolutely part of the conversation here. It is not only about football.

The conventional wisdom I am hearing is that if the SEC and Big Ten leave the NCAA, the basketball tournament among the remaining teams -- with the chance for Cinderella upsets and teams that have huge followings (but are non-entities in football) like Duke, Kansas, Gonzaga, Villanova, and so on -- would still be every bit as big a deal and would likely not suffer significantly in TV ratings.

There will be an NCAA champion in football and people will still care about that. Duke might even have a chance

[Matches]

One word about all these creative work around for the GoR, I am not a lawyer and I have not read the contract but I can imagine there is some kind of language about doing intentional harm or trying to weasel out of the contract (pretty standard stuff on a business deal) that could make it very problematic for a school that tie some dirty tricks to get out of keeping up their end of the GoR contract. I mean, it feels like it would be pretty easy to win a fraud case against Clemson if they tried to pass off a JV team or an entire season of neutral field games as a way of making their contribution to the ACC's media package worthless. .

You’re talking about a scenario where one or more schools simply breaches the contract and essentially dares the league to sue them. While that’s not completely implausible, the much more likely scenario (imo) would be a negotiated settlement/ buyout.

Fraud cases by the way are *never* easy to win - scienter is a tough nut to crack even in strong cases. We’d be talking more about breach of contract rather than fraud in your hypothetical though.

The conventional wisdom I am hearing is that if the SEC and Big Ten leave the NCAA, the basketball tournament among the remaining teams -- with the chance for Cinderella upsets and teams that have huge followings (but are non-entities in football) like Duke, Kansas, Gonzaga, Villanova, and so on -- would still be every bit as big a deal and would likely not suffer significantly in TV ratings.

Agreed here. March Madness is going nowhere. Too big and too profitable to just ditch. Format potentially could be tweaked but by and large it should survive just fine.

[1Devil]

No one will be happy with a split basketball world in which you don’t have a single tournament with all the best teams. That outcome will never be on the table. And the irrelevant NCAA will have little say in any of this.

Duke landing in the Big Ten is far more likely than the Big East or any other non-ACC conference. Naturally, membership in a largely undamaged ACC is still the most likely future for Duke in the short to medium term. But things may change quickly.

[TKG]

The Big House, The Horse Shoe and Wallace Wade. We better pray the ACC remains intact unless.

[1Devil]

Our football program would be lambs lead to slaughter in the Big 10. We better pray the ACC remains intact.

No worse than how it’s been in the ACC the last couple of years. We have shown that we are roughly on par with the Northwesterns and Indianas.

[TKG]

No worse than how it’s been in the ACC the last couple of years. We have shown that we are roughly on par with the Northwesterns and Indianas.

We have never encountered the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, USC and UCLA. Clemson is the only ACC team that belongs in that group.

[Wander]

The conventional wisdom I am hearing is that if the SEC and Big Ten leave the NCAA, the basketball tournament among the remaining teams -- with the chance for Cinderella upsets and teams that have huge followings (but are non-entities in football) like Duke, Kansas, Gonzaga, Villanova, and so on -- would still be every bit as big a deal and would likely not suffer significantly in TV ratings.

Agreed here. March Madness is going nowhere. Too big and too profitable to just ditch. Format potentially could be tweaked but by and large it should survive just fine.

Honestly, that sounds like a disaster to me. There will be a huge hit to the tournament immediately from losing Kentucky, Michigan, UCLA, Ohio State, Florida, and others. And then eventually, whatever the Big 10/SEC is called will be viewed as the premier organization, and the NCAA March Madness will be the equivalent of the NIT or D2 tournament. That may take a few years, but that's how it would evolve eventually.

I'm just hoping that all this somehow turns into an "effectively only football leaves" situation.

[arnie]

No worse than how it’s been in the ACC the last couple of years. We have shown that we are roughly on par with the Northwesterns and Indianas.

But not in attendance.

[duke2x]

And these folks who say, "they will just play all their home games on a neutral site"... really?!?! You think Clemson is just going to let Death Valley sit there un-used for 10+ years? Where are they going to play instead? And what are they going to do about the 81,000 die-hard season ticket holders who suddenly cannot buy season tickets any more (because you cannot sell season tickets to a neutral site)? And they are just going to give up home field advantage for 10+ years?!?!

You either find a way to break the grant of rights or you stick together. There is no other scenario.

Contracts are negotiated and made to be broken in exchange for money. (Think Duke-UL dispute in 2007 over the cancelled games.) The Big 12 GOR had that "all games played on campus" clause for the revenue restriction. It didn't matter because TX/OK left. TX easily could sell out any game in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, etc. I've never seen the ACC GOR unlike the Big 12. If the ACC has the same clause in its GOR, all Clemson would have to do is play its cupcakes in Death Valley, 4 games in Charlotte, or maybe 2 in Athens 45 minutes away. It would make no difference to the outcomes or revenue. Similarly, Duke would just move its major home basketball games to MSG/Barclays for a couple years to get around it until you can negotiate a buy out the GOR. It's why ND's agreement is ultimately useless unless they can't replicate the perceived benefits of ACC membership in another conference.

Football boosters are not rational, and TX and Clemson are good examples. They would be happy to play games in Charlotte for a couple years to play a SEC schedule. They know they are going 13-0 in the SEC every year anyway.

[OldPhiKap]

No worse than how it’s been in the ACC the last couple of years. We have shown that we are roughly on par with the Northwesterns and Indianas.

I’ve been to the two games we played against Alabama. It can get a hell of a lot worse than playing in the ACC.

[TywinBlue]

This I also believe and have felt for awhile we’re destined for the Big East in b-ball. Just can’t figure out what happens to Duke Football.

I agree.

[Matches]

Honestly, that sounds like a disaster to me. There will be a huge hit to the tournament immediately from losing Kentucky, Michigan, UCLA, Ohio State, Florida, and others. And then eventually, whatever the Big 10/SEC is called will be viewed as the premier organization, and the NCAA March Madness will be the equivalent of the NIT or D2 tournament. That may take a few years, but that's how it would evolve eventually.
.

I don’t see any reason why the SEC and B1G wouldn’t continue to participate in March Madness. Might need to tweak some branding depending on the status of the NCAA, but the tournament is great (and highly profitable) more or less as is.

[DU82]

I don’t see any reason why the SEC and B1G wouldn’t continue to participate in March Madness. Might need to tweak some branding depending on the status of the NCAA, but the tournament is great (and highly profitable) more or less as is.

It might be the NCAA (or what’s left, reorganized) treats the SEC/B1G combo the same way the PGA ‘is treating the LIV tour. “You’re dead to me!”

[dukelifer]

I don’t see any reason why the SEC and B1G wouldn’t continue to participate in March Madness. Might need to tweak some branding depending on the status of the NCAA, but the tournament is great (and highly profitable) more or less as is.

Either you are in the NCAA or you are not. But I guess college football can be a minor professional league that pays a school to use its name/brand and facilities.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

It might be the NCAA (or what’s left, reorganized) treats the SEC/B1G combo the same way the PGA ‘is treating the LIV tour. “You’re dead to me!”

I mean, that's like if the LIV got 20 of the top 25 golfers. I don't think "you're dead to me" is a feasible reply from the NCAA if they lose Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Florida...

[tommy]

It might be the NCAA (or what’s left, reorganized) treats the SEC/B1G combo the same way the PGA ‘is treating the LIV tour. “You’re dead to me!”

But the point is that the SEC and B10 would be leaving the NCAA and forming their own organization. That org would have its own rules around recruiting, academic requirements etc. Schools still under the NCAA umbrella won’t really be able to compete w that other organization. Different rules, restraints, requirements. Uneven playing field so some sort of joint basketball tournament wouldn’t work. Plus, the huge TV contract is with the NCAA, not this new org. Will there be another huge contract offered to the new org ? Knowing it didn’t contain a number of top national powers? Lot to think about.

[TampaDuke]

Why not split football from all other sports? Seems we’re already on that path.

And any $$ need to get out of a GOR seems paltry. We’re paying pitchers and point guards $200 million, a few billion is really peanuts in the long run. IMO.

[uh_no]

Contracts are negotiated and made to be broken in exchange for money. (Think Duke-UL dispute in 2007 over the cancelled games.) The Big 12 GOR had that "all games played on campus" clause for the revenue restriction. It didn't matter because TX/OK left. TX easily could sell out any game in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, etc. I've never seen the ACC GOR unlike the Big 12. If the ACC has the same clause in its GOR, all Clemson would have to do is play its cupcakes in Death Valley, 4 games in Charlotte, or maybe 2 in Athens 45 minutes away. It would make no difference to the outcomes or revenue. Similarly, Duke would just move its major home basketball games to MSG/Barclays for a couple years to get around it until you can negotiate a buy out the GOR. It's why ND's agreement is ultimately useless unless they can't replicate the perceived benefits of ACC membership in another conference.

Football boosters are not rational, and TX and Clemson are good examples. They would be happy to play games in Charlotte for a couple years to play a SEC schedule. They know they are going 13-0 in the SEC every year anyway.

duke's cameron ticket sales make the difference in revenue between the ACC and BIG look like peanuts. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 75 million$/year.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

duke's cameron ticket sales make the difference in revenue between the ACC and BIG look like peanuts. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 75 million$/year.

Um... Are you sure?
My math shows a rough estimate of 185,000 tickets a season.