Conference Realignment 2022-23

[duke2x]

The Big 10 would jump within 10 seconds to have Duke's research join its consortium like Chicago and Hopkins. Selling the Northwestern/Stanford/Vandy football part of the package to OSU and PSU is the problem. (It's not the rest of Duke athletics either.) I don't see being the next Georgetown, Chicago/Hopkins, or Lehigh as viable goals.

[wilko]

A viable competitive ACC is the best option.

But the ACC is pissing me off lately. The quality of the Refs. The bending over backwards to fellate UNC at every opportunity. The COY voting for the past 25 yrs...
They've rebranded the ACC as Snow White and the 15 Dwarves. A separate set of gripes.

It almost wouldn't hurt my feelings to see it blown up. And at one time, that notion would have bothered me immensely.


So, as for a "Plan B"

On another thread I floated the notion:
"Why dont we produce and distribute our own content ourselves"? And just develop a standalone streaming App?
What would be the charge per subscriber/advertiser to make it viable $$ and satisfy the Administration, AD's needs? It could serve as our own NIL vehicle as well, as compared to part of some small component of a larger ESPN portfolio.
I wonder.


Is our Fanbase such that the mere threat of that brings better leverage from ESPN? How is it positioned for other schools do do this in a similar fashion?
If I could just get a Duke only package, I would prolly buy just that.

Some push-back was given on the other thread. Valid points..

Live video distribution at any non-trivially small scale is not cheap, or something that we can't likely just whip up ourselves.

It would take work and resources. That's true.
We have till 2036 max to figure it out. If we have a blueprint and a framework, it could help tread water and not put us in a position to not have to take a poor deal.

We would also have to somehow acquire the rights, which would not be cheap. Since ESPN owns them for the next ten years they would probably not be inclined to give their new streaming competitor an especially great deal (ask Sinclair).

IF the ACC essentially disintegrates does Dukes rights revert back to Duke, or does ESPN still retain them?
I would think if the organization that represents us (the ACC), is no more - we would have a better than decent shot at getting them back.

[SamHouston]

From a financial perspective, I think this is a loser, unfortunately. And that's what's driving decision-making.

I know.

[JasonEvans]

We have till 2036 max to figure it out.

I think the breaking point is more like 2030. At a certain point, the gulf in annual payouts from the bigger conferences becomes wide enough so that someone will be willing to move on despite the grant of rights. The potentially exorbitant fee -- $100 mil or more -- to be free of the GOR will be worth it because you can make up that entire difference in a few years by joining the Big Ten or SEC. Either that or someone will announce they are leaving in 4/5/6 years in the future and that will trigger a scramble and exodus which will results in the GOR being torn up or something like that.

Anyway, the bottom line is that -- barring some currently unforeseeable move to bridge the revenue gap with the Big/SEC -- I expect a major shakeup in the ACC by 2030, if not sooner.

[HoKogan]

I think people are so paranoid about football driving the realignment bus that its hard to see anything beyond that scope. I think it needs to be re-evaluated under the current media climate.

1. CFB is the number one driver of TV revenue and I don't think anyone is debating that. However, conference realignment is now being driven by brand awareness and marketability. What sports product is going to draw the most eyeballs? The only current big football brand thats currently not spoken for is ND. The only ACC football team that has any attraction to the casual football fan is Clemson. FSU might if they can turn it back around. Miami hasn't been relevant in over 2 decades in terms of having a national appeal. The rest of the teams are all reliant on regional rooting interests, and for that reason, teams like Duke or NCSU or GT or even UNC are really no better or worse. While I think alumni base has some influence on ratings, for the most part, the networks want a product that appeals to the average fan, there are more people that watch Alabama or UGA or ND that never set foot on the campus than those that did.

2. With this in mind, there aren't many football teams left that are going to move the needle one way or another that arent already in the B10 or SEC.

3. The networks need content from January to April, thats CBB. College basketball has been decimated by early entry in terms of appealing to casual fan, lack of actual star power. The only brands that still appeal to casual fans are Duke, UNC, KU and UK. I'm sure teams like Nova and the Zags do as well. I do think that actually makes Duke (and UNC) more appealing to the SEC or the B10 than a middle of the road ACC football team that happens to have a large alumni base. People will tune in to watch Duke vs UK. They'll watch NCSU vs Missouri in football if nothing else is on.

The hope is NIL and changes to NBA early entry will help CBB become a more compelling product. But even the NBA is losing viewers as well.

I think if the ACC wants to stay solvent, its going to have to think outside of the box to find ways to generate revenue. CBB is going to need that in general for all conferences.

[superdave]

The likely interim solution for the ACC is a tv deal with the Pac 12 conference for football. They could tee up early season cross-conference matchups like Duke-Stanford, UVA-Cal, Clemson-UCLA etc. Then do 6pm ACC games and 9pm eastern PAC12 kickoffs.

I dont know what that achieves, but you have to try.

I do think the point about Texas figuring out the hard way that they cannot compete at football in the SEC may be what AD's need to see to think jumbo-sized conferences dont make sense.

Lack of competitiveness and desirable bowl games will make the Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame tier of teams second guess climbing into bed with the SEC. Hopefully that plays out quickly.

[SavDukeGrad]

SDSU coach makes some good points about realignment, travel difficulties, and the PAC 12, in this ESPN article.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...re-realignment

[uh_no]

The likely interim solution for the ACC is a tv deal with the Pac 12 conference for football. They could tee up early season cross-conference matchups like Duke-Stanford, UVA-Cal, Clemson-UCLA etc. Then do 6pm ACC games and 9pm eastern PAC12 kickoffs.

I dont know what that achieves, but you have to try.

I do think the point about Texas figuring out the hard way that they cannot compete at football in the SEC may be what AD's need to see to think jumbo-sized conferences dont make sense.

Lack of competitiveness and desirable bowl games will make the Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame tier of teams second guess climbing into bed with the SEC. Hopefully that plays out quickly.

70 million dollars a year says they put up with slightly lesser quality bowl games...

And the bowl games will track the situation. If the SEC and B10 are deeper, then more bowls will tie in to pick up those schools. This is in opposition to the likes of maryland and rutgers, who always sucked, but now they suck, but they make bank for being punching bags.

[budwom]

70 million dollars a year says they put up with slightly lesser quality bowl games...

And the bowl games will track the situation. If the SEC and B10 are deeper, then more bowls will tie in to pick up those schools. This is in opposition to the likes of maryland and rutgers, who always sucked, but now they suck, but they make bank for being punching bags.

Yes. And if I'm reading it correctly, Dave's post doesn't make a ton of sense. UCLA is going to the Big 10; Stanford and Cal have made quiet inquiries...and Penn State is in the Big 10...ND has their own deal and is sitting in the catbird seat. There are no easy moves for the ACC.

[lotusland]

One lesson from this year’s tournament is that a power 4-5 football conference is not required to make the E8 or Final 4 in basketball. Fans and Schools seem so afraid of losing football money that they haven’t noticed all that they’ve already sacrificed to keep it rolling in. UConn, Gonzaga, Creighton, Xavier, Marquette, St Mary’s, SDSU, FAU, managed to get to the sweet 16 with no power conference football money. 3 of 4 final 4 teams are not in Power football conferences. Is Duke football really worth all the anxiety? I don’t think Duke has anything to fear but fear itself.

[uh_no]

One lesson from this year’s tournament is that a power 4-5 football conference is not required to make the E8 or Final 4 in basketball. Fans and Schools seem so afraid of losing football money that they haven’t noticed all that they’ve already sacrificed to keep it rolling in. UConn, Gonzaga, Creighton, Xavier, Marquette, St Mary’s, SDSU, FAU, managed to get to the sweet 16 with no power conference football money. 3 of 4 final 4 teams are not in Power football conferences. Is Duke football really worth all the anxiety? I don’t think Duke has anything to fear but fear itself.

uconn's athletic department financials are not great right now. they have to potentially eschew playing at the XL center moving forward simply since they can't afford to rent it. Duke does not want to end up in that position.

[duke2x]

The likely interim solution for the ACC is a tv deal with the Pac 12 conference for football. They could tee up early season cross-conference matchups like Duke-Stanford, UVA-Cal, Clemson-UCLA etc. Then do 6pm ACC games and 9pm eastern PAC12 kickoffs.

College football games are 3.5 hours unless you want to miss the first quarter every week. Stanford folks thought they had a huge temporal advantage with the 10PM ET start in 2012 (in addition to the fact they were just better). That scheduling basically means 11AM start on ESPN2 for some ACC or AAC team--guess which ACC team(s) get that?

It's not a bad idea, but I see problems even if ESPN has a partial P12 contract. Most P12 schools want a B10 opponent for their 1 non-conference game. Most of the football eyes in the ACC want a SEC opponent. Half of the ACC only wants to play Stanford, and I don't see Duke-AZ or UT-UNC moving the needle.

[FosterCoachK82]

I hope that these national conferences will be short-lived. Regional conferences make so much more sense. The travel will be horrendous. And I understand that most BB and FB players are not student-athletes, but most students in other sports are, and they will suffer academically. I hope that professors hold the line so that students realize the cost of competing in these absurd conferences. I also think the carbon footprint of conference travel will become more highlighted in the future. It is all completely irresponsible and heads should roll in the highest offices of these “schools”.

[rolm]

Is there any benefit (for the current ACC) or the possibility that the ACC, Big12, Pac12 combine into a single Conference and then create region-based groups within, to minimize travel? For example, each school within a regional group only plays 1-2 other school(s) outside the region? Can such a mega conference compete with the B1G and the SEC, in terms of revenue?

[budwom]

uconn's athletic department financials are not great right now. they have to potentially eschew playing at the XL center moving forward simply since they can't afford to rent it. Duke does not want to end up in that position.

Yes, UCONN is hurting, and Duke could potentially be. Nina understands the stakes, she also knows the Big Ten area...there are many reasons why she has been so energetic in resuscitating Duke football.

[RoseBowl1942]

Yes, UCONN is hurting, and Duke could potentially be. Nina understands the stakes, she also knows the Big Ten area...there are many reasons why she has been so energetic in resuscitating Duke football.

Eyyup. Football is the only thing that matters in realignment. And MBB will suffer if we don’t get on a liferaft (unless we go to the Big East, which I actually think is Plan B). Need to get ourselves to a level of respectability by 2027-28 before the wall of likely moves in 2030 to even have a shot of leveraging our MBB to get into the B10. It’s still an unlikely scenario regardless, but if the team is winning games and a T25 program (or at least ranked for portions of the season) during the late 20s, there’s a shot. Oh and Scheyer probably has to win a title over that point too.

Basically buy deep out of the money calls on Duke at this point, bc the downside of the underlying is enormous (if you think this will work out for us, which let’s be honest, it’s 90/10 at best to the downside if UNC isn’t demanding we’re their mate)

[pamtelp]

One lesson from this year’s tournament is that a power 4-5 football conference is not required to make the E8 or Final 4 in basketball. Fans and Schools seem so afraid of losing football money that they haven’t noticed all that they’ve already sacrificed to keep it rolling in. UConn, Gonzaga, Creighton, Xavier, Marquette, St Mary’s, SDSU, FAU, managed to get to the sweet 16 with no power conference football money. 3 of 4 final 4 teams are not in Power football conferences. Is Duke football really worth all the anxiety? I don’t think Duke has anything to fear but fear itself.

Basketball will survive, but every other sport will be crushed. So much of Duke's brand and appeal is wrapped up in quality athletics. I fear it actually will impact other parts of the university as well (applications, yield, etc.). Especially when comparable schools like Northwestern, Vanderbilt, etc. are in such strong positions.

[sagegrouse]

Basketball will survive, but every other sport will be crushed. So much of Duke's brand and appeal is wrapped up in quality athletics. I fear it actually will impact other parts of the university as well (applications, yield, etc.). Especially when comparable schools like Northwestern, Vanderbilt, etc. are in such strong positions.

Although others aren't -- the eight Ivies, Emory, Chicago, Rice, etc.

[duke2x]

Basketball will survive, but every other sport will be crushed. So much of Duke's brand and appeal is wrapped up in quality athletics. I fear it actually will impact other parts of the university as well (applications, yield, etc.). Especially when comparable schools like Northwestern, Vanderbilt, etc. are in such strong positions.

Nobody chooses or will choose Stanford, Vandy, or NW for the sports teams. Those schools are located in cities with nightlife that compensate for it. Duke is basically South Bend without snow to a college student. I'm not sure whether losing P5 status will make the school more like Hop or Baylor academically.

[Maged]

I once sat next to a doctor from Columbia Presbyterian Hospital at a Duke game in Brooklyn. He was wearing all Duke garb because his daughter went to Duke. He went to Columbia undergraduate and Med school but said his school had no school spirit. He loved Duke's school spirit and now identified with Duke.

It's one of the things that in my opinion, has always made Duke special and different in a good way from the Ivies.