Conference Realignment 2022-23

[Kdogg]

I’m sure the next TV rights deal for the SEC and B1G will be very different than the ones they currently have. Although I don’t totally buy in to the idea most people think the cable model will be out in the near future. The B1G pushing their network onto anyone and everyone will no longer be the guaranteed cash cow of the past. It will be replaced by over the top subscription models that will require fans to fork over something like $10-$20 a month. A Super Conference needs to increase its audience mass to attract as many subscribers as it can. The old cable subscriber that never watched sports but still subsidized college sports won’t be around. That’s where adding a team like Clemson and FSU becomes valuable. They grow the pot in this new model for the SEC. For the B1G, they grow the pot now and later as would UNC, UVA and GTech. By creating a monopoly or duopoly Super conferences would also attract casual college football fans by creating the only place for marquee matchups. The SEC approved a temporary 8 game conference for the first year with Texas and Oklahoma. You can be sure that become nine games pretty soon and ten games if they expand further. The era of games against third tier teams will be all but over. The new system requires big names and big games all the time. We all talk about sharing the pie with more teams means less for everyone but I think we have seen max pie shares. I think in the future is was always going to be less pie (at least in the near term.) It’s going to be about maximizing your audience.

[budwom]

I’m sure the next TV rights deal for the SEC and B1G will be very different than the ones they currently have. Although I don’t totally buy in to the idea most people think the cable model will be out in the near future. The B1G pushing their network onto anyone and everyone will no longer be the guaranteed cash cow of the past. It will be replaced by over the top subscription models that will require fans to fork over something like $10-$20 a month. A Super Conference needs to increase its audience mass to attract as many subscribers as it can. The old cable subscriber that never watched sports but still subsidized college sports won’t be around. That’s where adding a team like Clemson and FSU becomes valuable. They grow the pot in this new model for the SEC. For the B1G, they grow the pot now and later as would UNC, UVA and GTech. By creating a monopoly or duopoly Super conferences would also attract casual college football fans by creating the only place for marquee matchups. The SEC approved a temporary 8 game conference for the first year with Texas and Oklahoma. You can be sure that become nine games pretty soon and ten games if they expand further. The era of games against third tier teams will be all but over. The new system requires big names and big games all the time. We all talk about sharing the pie with more teams means less for everyone but I think we have seen max pie shares. I think in the future is was always going to be less pie (at least in the near term.) It’s going to be about maximizing your audience.

I pretty much agree, I just have no way of knowing whether the new subscriber model, should it come to pass, would provide more or less revenue than the current cable model...it sure does help revenue when a bunch of people who don't even care about sports pay for a channel they never watch...I do agree the pie is unlikely to get much bigger unless a conference or two manages to seize control of the playoffs and expands them...

[CameronBornAndBred]

So we've been vetted?

According to longtime reporter Jim Williams, 10 programs have been "vetted" by the Big Ten for possible membership. This list includes, in no particular order, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Georgia Tech, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Utah and Miami

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https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate...s-dissovlement

[Faustus]

Bring us ALL in, then, and we can fight Northwestern for, maybe, 24th place. I'm sure there's room for all of us on the BigTen Network to watch bball games on January weekends. Woops, maybe not.

Or maybe they can set up a relegation system like English soccer, so every year the bottom 3 teams get kicked down to, maybe the remains of the ACC or the Big East, and Villanova can move up for a while.

I really hate all of this. But give me the BigTen I think before the SEC if it comes to that.

[budwom]

hey, Northwestern has won the less difficult western division in recent years, even though they have had some bad seasons. I think getting into the Big 10 would be a tremendous coup for Duke...get us away from the delusional schools intent on wrecking the ACC. Duke could compete in the Big 10...the SEC is another and irrelevant story...

[RoseBowl1942]

Not to be negative Nancy, but I think “vetted” and “proven economically viable” are wildly different things. I’m pretty sure we “vetted” 50k+ kids last year for undergrad and took less than 10%

[JasonEvans]

Not to be negative Nancy, but I think “vetted” and “proven economically viable” are wildly different things. I’m pretty sure we “vetted” 50k+ kids last year for undergrad and took less than 10%

True, but I would rather be in the "vetted" camp than to be where NC State and Wake are today.

[Maged]

I wonder if this information was purposely leaked by the Big Ten, like in politics, to see what kind of response it got from the schools as well as the public.

[AustinDevil]

I wonder if this information was purposely leaked by the Big Ten, like in politics, to see what kind of response it got from the schools as well as the public.

Definitely.

[House P]

True, but I would rather be in the "vetted" camp than to be where NC State and Wake are today.

Yep, and if the Big Ten "vetted" Duke, Ga Tech, and UVA, but not Clemson and FSU, perhaps the Big Ten is considered a particular way to differentiate themselves once major college sports is reduced to two superpower conferences. If the Big Ten wants to position themselves as the more academically minded of the two superpowers, Duke may have a slimmer of hope.

Of course, the Big Ten would also need to see value in expanding well beyond 20 teams for Duke to make the cut.

[LeadingEdge]

So we've been vetted?

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https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate...s-dissovlement

What even does "vetted" mean? Anyone who follows sports and knows of academic selectivity and research standing could list those schools from top of mind without any investigation.

Of course, the B10 isn't adding ten schools in one fell swoop or perhaps ever, and most if not all of those schools would lower per team payout, which we have been told is the Most Important Thing Ever.

If things went kabluey, though, those ten would make a nice football (if we must keep playing it) and basketball conference, with regional conferences for non-revs: nice academics and research, all AAU, care enough about athletics without being CFP insane, and preserves some rivalries.

[CameronBornAndBred]

What even does "vetted" mean?

In my mind, "vetted" means communication between the two parties (as well as parties associated with the target entity), beyond just reviewing what is publicly available.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

If the Big Ten wants to position themselves as the more academically minded of the two superpowers, Duke may have a slimmer of hope.

I suppose that "positioning themselves as the more academically minded" of the power conferences is a PR move to justify some perceived disappointment.

But I could be wrong. Perhaps they truly value scholastic endeavors over football strength and $$$.

[budwom]

In my mind, "vetted" means communication between the two parties (as well as parties associated with the target entity), beyond just reviewing what is publicly available.

yes, I take this as good news, even though it doesn't necessarily portend anything. I have zero inside knowledge, but would be stunned if Nina King hasn't been making some discrete inquiries in Big Ten Land. We find ourselves in a conference where literally half of it would be thrilled to leave us behind, so it's time to explore options. A bit surprising to hear that hoops may have SOME value in all this (fully recognizing TV football money is the center of the universe)...the troika of Duke, unc and UVA would have academic appeal to the Big 10, as would the other schools from out west...

[MChambers]

So we've been vetted?

.
https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate...s-dissovlement

Let's hope the B1G didn't discover DBR!

[AGDukesky]

yes, I take this as good news, even though it doesn't necessarily portend anything. I have zero inside knowledge, but would be stunned if Nina King hasn't been making some discrete inquiries in Big Ten Land. We find ourselves in a conference where literally half of it would be thrilled to leave us behind, so it's time to explore options. A bit surprising to hear that hoops may have SOME value in all this (fully recognizing TV football money is the center of the universe)...the troika of Duke, unc and UVA would have academic appeal to the Big 10, as would the other schools from out west...

I agree and clearly the Big Ten is a better fit than the SEC if the ACC collapses.

[azzefkram]

Are we sure all this B1G stuff isn't just Scott working behind the scenes so he can get an annual Duke-Michigan basketball game?

[LeadingEdge]

yes, I take this as good news, even though it doesn't necessarily portend anything. I have zero inside knowledge, but would be stunned if Nina King hasn't been making some discrete inquiries in Big Ten Land. We find ourselves in a conference where literally half of it would be thrilled to leave us behind, so it's time to explore options. A bit surprising to hear that hoops may have SOME value in all this (fully recognizing TV football money is the center of the universe)...the troika of Duke, unc and UVA would have academic appeal to the Big 10, as would the other schools from out west...

Yes, and Georgia Tech, the best engineering school in the South, which would fit nicely with the big honkin' tool schools of the B10.

[budwom]

Yes, and Georgia Tech, the best engineering school in the South, which would fit nicely with the big honkin' tool schools of the B10.

fine by me! Yeah, you mention how big those schools are...I think a lot of folks may not appreciate the massive size of many of the Big 10 schools, and therefore the extent to which they have massive alumni bases (who watch football on TV) that dwarf the size of the typical ACC school. I'm too lazy to run the numbers, but if the average undergrad population of Big 10 schools is twice that of the average ACC school, I wouldn't be surprised in the least.

[House P]

fine by me! Yeah, you mention how big those schools are...I think a lot of folks may not appreciate the massive size of many of the Big 10 schools, and therefore the extent to which they have massive alumni bases (who watch football on TV) that dwarf the size of the typical ACC school. I'm too lazy to run the numbers, but if the average undergrad population of Big 10 schools is twice that of the average ACC school, I wouldn't be surprised in the least.

Here you go. I did this a while ago, so I don't remember exactly where I got the numbers (probably Wikipedia).

Big Ten School	Undergrads	ACC School	Undergrads
Rutgers University	49,359	Florida State University	33,486
Ohio State University	47,106	Virginia Tech	29,300
Penn State	39,809	NC State University	25,973
Michigan State University	39,176	Clemson University	20,195
Purdue University	37,101	University of North Carolina	19,743
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign	34,559	University of Pittsburgh	19,200
Indiana University - Bloomington	34,253	University of Virginia	17,011
University of Wisconsin	33,506	Georgia Tech University	16,651
University of California - Los Angeles	32,121	University of Louisville	15,641
University of Michigan - Ann Arbor	31,329	Syracuse University	14,479
University of Maryland - College Park	30,762	Boston College	9,445
University of Minnesota - Twin Cities	30,734	Notre Dame	8,731
University of Iowa	21,608	University of Miami	7,007
University of Southern California	20,790	Duke University	6,789
University of Nebraska - Lincoln	19,552	Wake Forest University	5,441
Northwestern	8,327
Total	510,092	Total	249,092
Median	32,814	Median	16,651