2022 NBA Draft

[KKDL19]

Keels is a good player and no doubt he can play in the NBA. I think it all comes down to, is he going to accept his draft range with how the contracts go.

[DavidBenAkiva]

But the concerns about his motor and effort are real and legit. I love him, and he's one of the two players I'd take a shot on if I were an NBA GM. Chet being the other. But the questions about Paolo are legit.

You are speaking for other people, but I can't tell where you are getting this. Is this your opinion of how others feel? Do you have quotes from NBA insiders that illustrate this?

If this is your belief, that's all fine and good. Just be clear about that. We all share opinions on here. If this is you speaking for others, I think its hyperbolic to the point of being off base. I read a ton of NBA draft previews from a variety of sources and can't recall seeing anything that indicates that NBA teams are scared off by Paolo's mindset or work ethic. Quite the opposite, in fact. There are a lot of profiles that note his progression in high school from being a post-oriented big man to being a perimeter-oriented matchup nightmare. Like, here's a whole feature focus on Paolo from Ricky O'Donnell writing for SB Nation. You won't find the words "effort" or "focus" in it once. You'd think a guy that writes this much about a single prospect would notice that sort of thing. He doesn't. Maybe you found some articles or talked to people that expressed this point of view. I'd like to see it.

[DavidBenAkiva]

This is why OAD sux. In year one, smart players realize what works, and what they need to improve. Which they can't do in earnest until the season ends.

Keels year 2 would be nasty, and on the short list for national POY by January.

It sucks for fans. It's great that Keels has the chance to pursue his dream of playing in the NBA.

There's still a chance he could return to Duke. It's not a great chance, but it's possible. Ultimately, that's his choice. I'd rather live in a world in which the players themselves can choose their own path.

[RetireVergaJersey]

I have seen Moore projected mid 20s to Golden State and Keels 35th to Orlando. Both would be good organizations to join. Keels might even have a friend to
room w in minicamp w initials PB.

[Kedsy]

Gary Trent turning into a high level starter on a serious playoff contender is a killer wrt Keels. Teams will see Keels developing on that same path, possibly quicker, and jump all over him. There are a ton of playoff teams whose scouts and GM had to answer some tough questions about why they missed on Trent after their team's owner saw Trent play at a high level vs his team. Teams in the playoffs for whom Trent, on a cheap rookie deal, might have pushed into a further round (or title) in the NBA playoffs.

Playoff teams won't be eager to make the same mistake with a very similar player.

Except they're not very similar players. At all.

Here are some relevant shooting stats for each player during their one year at Duke:

Player		3pt%	FT%	oRating	TS%	eFG%	usg%	%threes	%taken at rim
Gary Trent	40.2%	87.6%	124.4	56.7%	52.8%	19.5%	56.4%	12.9%
Trevor Keels	31.2%	67.0%	112.4	52.0%	49.6%	20.7%	49.3%	34.5%

Completely different profile and completely different success rate. Any GM taking Trevor Keels and expecting Gary Trent is bound to be disappointed.

[Wander]

I get that he attacks the rim with reckless abandon, but Jaden Ivey at #2?? I don't see it. Maybe he is the next Donovan Mitchell but I think there is a far better chance that Chet, Paolo, or Jabari end up an All-Star than Jaden getting there.

Maybe this is a hot take, but I think #2 is too low for Ivey. I think he will be the best player in this draft class.

First of all, some here are acting like Purdue lost to St Peters in the first round. Ivey had 22 points on 13 shots against Yale in the 1st round and 18 points on 7 shots against Texas in the second round, both very good games.

Ivey has all the natural ability and athleticism to be an NBA star. I don't know all the NBA draft prospects as well as some of you do, but I feel good saying he is the most athletic of these 4 (Jaden, Paolo, Chet, Jabari). The main issue is his decision making, as he often drives and jumps already having decided where he is going to pass or if he is going to shoot, rather than reacting to the defense. I think that will improve with experience. Ja Morant is a good comparison IMO for Ivey's ceiling – he's a far better shooter than Westbrook.

He and his team were held back by one of the worst tactical coaches in the sport (I would say the single worst one at a Top-25-level program). Give the same team with that combination of talent and experience to Coach K or Jay Wright and they make the Final Four at worst. I am honestly not sure there is a single other coach in all of Division 1 who would play Trevion Williams only 20 minutes a game.

[dukelifer]

Maybe this is a hot take, but I think #2 is too low for Ivey. I think he will be the best player in this draft class.

First of all, some here are acting like Purdue lost to St Peters in the first round. Ivey had 22 points on 13 shots against Yale in the 1st round and 18 points on 7 shots against Texas in the second round, both very good games.

Ivey has all the natural ability and athleticism to be an NBA star. I don't know all the NBA draft prospects as well as some of you do, but I feel good saying he is the most athletic of these 4 (Jaden, Paolo, Chet, Jabari). The main issue is his decision making, as he often drives and jumps already having decided where he is going to pass or if he is going to shoot, rather than reacting to the defense. I think that will improve with experience. Ja Morant is a good comparison IMO for Ivey's ceiling – he's a far better shooter than Westbrook.

He and his team were held back by one of the worst tactical coaches in the sport (I would say the single worst one at a Top-25-level program). Give the same team with that combination of talent and experience to Coach K or Jay Wright and they make the Final Four at worst. I am honestly not sure there is a single other coach in all of Division 1 who would play Trevion Williams only 20 minutes a game.

He is a very good player but I remain unconvinced that he is the best player in the draft. He is crazy athletic but will be entering a league of crazy athletes. He is not a great shooter- just solid with decent fundamentals. Maybe his athleticism and motor will allow him to be a great NBA player- time will tell.

[Daddylawman]

There are big negatives about each of the top 4 players:

Chet: Too skinny. Can he play the way he wants to vs NBA bodies? Can he put on the muscle necessary?

Jabari: Can't create his own shot. Relies on guards to get him into scoring position. With the right PG (like, say, Detroit) he can be fine. If not...He could be a tall Sf who is efficient but not prolific. And his success vs the SEC isn't as impressive in hindsight.

Ivey: Short for a SG. Is he a poor man's Russell Westbrook but a better 3pt shooter? Which sounds great. But Ivey isn't near the PG that Russ is, and Russ isn't a great PG. Ivey isn't the uber elite athlete that Russ is. Ivey's a great athlete, but not like Russ. Like I said, Ivey opened eyes in the wrong direction down the stretch. His floor is lower than widely believed, and the ceiling isn't as high. I doubt he hurt his draft stock all that much, like I said, top 5-6 at WORST. But Ivey probably shaved 5-10 million off his rookie era endorsement money.

Paolo. His negative is the most damming of all. Effort. He's got nearly the skill set of Jabari, only Paolo can create his own shot. He's got the pro ready body that Chet lacks, and may never develop. PB's got ideal size and athleticism for the position, unlike Ivey.

But Paolo doesn't dominate like he should every game. We talked, at length, about how Paolo would disappear for stretches, LONG STRETCHES, of games. Or have a minimal impact on a game. He would eff around and get 15 and 8. But if he attacked he would dominate. His play in the NCAAT was both great and telling. It showed what PB could do if he really applied himself for most of the game. Even his spotty D trended sharply up. He was fantastic. Easily the best player on the court amongst all the players on all the teams playing at that particular site that weekend. But it highlighted how he doesn't do that all the time.

NBA teams HATE HATE HATE contract year players. These guys eff around for 3-4 years, then play great the last year of their contract, all but forcing their team to placate that team's fans by giving the guy a long term deal. Then the mediocre play starts again. Mediocre being relative of course. PB effing around will be a borderline all star most years. But attacking and dominating PB could be a 10 year starter in the all star game and best player on a title winning team(s). But the concerns about his motor and effort are real and legit. I love him, and he's one of the two players I'd take a shot on if I were an NBA GM. Chet being the other. But the questions about Paolo are legit.

These are words

[jimsumner]

Except they're not very similar players. At all.

Here are some relevant shooting stats for each player during their one year at Duke:

Player		3pt%	FT%	oRating	TS%	eFG%	usg%	%threes	%taken at rim
Gary Trent	40.2%	87.6%	124.4	56.7%	52.8%	19.5%	56.4%	12.9%
Trevor Keels	31.2%	67.0%	112.4	52.0%	49.6%	20.7%	49.3%	34.5%

Completely different profile and completely different success rate. Any GM taking Trevor Keels and expecting Gary Trent is bound to be disappointed.

The best-case scenario for Keels might be Marcus Smart.

Of course, Smart came back for his sophomore season. And was the sixth pick in the draft.

[Steven43]

He hit 7 of 8 3 ptrs and if you watch it long enough it is 14 of 16 and 21 of 24...

Maybe we should go after this guy in the transfer portal

Dang it, Duke would have beaten UNC and Kansas to win the national championship had he shot 3-pointers like that (2-7 vs UNC). 😞

I know, I know, big difference between a workout and actual big-game pressure.

[MartyClark]

Trevor, please come back. You will be a star for Duke next year.

[Steven43]

Trevor, please come back. You will be a star for Duke next year.

Whose minutes would he take?

[tommy]

Except they're not very similar players. At all.

Here are some relevant shooting stats for each player during their one year at Duke:

Player        3pt%    FT%    oRating    TS%    eFG%    usg%    %threes    %taken at rim
Gary Trent    40.2%    87.6%    124.4    56.7%    52.8%    19.5%    56.4%    12.9%
Trevor Keels    31.2%    67.0%    112.4    52.0%    49.6%    20.7%    49.3%    34.5%

Completely different profile and completely different success rate. Any GM taking Trevor Keels and expecting Gary Trent is bound to be disappointed.

And that's just offensively. Trevor this past year was a far more aggressive and disruptive defender than Gary was in his year at Duke.

[sagegrouse]

There are big negatives about each of the top 4 players:

Chet: Too skinny. Can he play the way he wants to vs NBA bodies? Can he put on the muscle necessary?

Jabari: Can't create his own shot. Relies on guards to get him into scoring position. With the right PG (like, say, Detroit) he can be fine. If not...He could be a tall Sf who is efficient but not prolific. And his success vs the SEC isn't as impressive in hindsight.

Ivey: Short for a SG. Is he a poor man's Russell Westbrook but a better 3pt shooter? Which sounds great. But Ivey isn't near the PG that Russ is, and Russ isn't a great PG. Ivey isn't the uber elite athlete that Russ is. Ivey's a great athlete, but not like Russ. Like I said, Ivey opened eyes in the wrong direction down the stretch. His floor is lower than widely believed, and the ceiling isn't as high. I doubt he hurt his draft stock all that much, like I said, top 5-6 at WORST. But Ivey probably shaved 5-10 million off his rookie era endorsement money.

Paolo. His negative is the most damming of all. Effort. He's got nearly the skill set of Jabari, only Paolo can create his own shot. He's got the pro ready body that Chet lacks, and may never develop. PB's got ideal size and athleticism for the position, unlike Ivey.

But Paolo doesn't dominate like he should every game. We talked, at length, about how Paolo would disappear for stretches, LONG STRETCHES, of games. Or have a minimal impact on a game. He would eff around and get 15 and 8. But if he attacked he would dominate. His play in the NCAAT was both great and telling. It showed what PB could do if he really applied himself for most of the game. Even his spotty D trended sharply up. He was fantastic. Easily the best player on the court amongst all the players on all the teams playing at that particular site that weekend. But it highlighted how he doesn't do that all the time.

NBA teams HATE HATE HATE contract year players. These guys eff around for 3-4 years, then play great the last year of their contract, all but forcing their team to placate that team's fans by giving the guy a long term deal. Then the mediocre play starts again. Mediocre being relative of course. PB effing around will be a borderline all star most years. But attacking and dominating PB could be a 10 year starter in the all star game and best player on a title winning team(s). But the concerns about his motor and effort are real and legit. I love him, and he's one of the two players I'd take a shot on if I were an NBA GM. Chet being the other. But the questions about Paolo are legit.

Most people here have decided not to respond to what I would harshly describe as "your drivel." Nevertheless, you are attacking a Duke player on a Duke fan web site, and we need to have a response, so that your view does not stand alone.

Your description of Paolo's "problem" (lack of effort) and your assertion that the NBA is truly concerned about this nonexistent problem are both arrogant and laughable. Paolo was a 19 YO freshman who was an immensely skilled player in an immense body. He doinated games with much older players. He will only get more skilled, more coordinated and physically stronger in the future. I expect he will be picked at the top of the draft, considered along with both Chet Holmgren (7-0) and Jabari Smith (6-10). I don't believe there is any significant concern about his commitment to basketball or to the effort he displays on the court. I thought he was a terrific player, who got even better as the season went along.

[tommy]

Most people here have decided not to respond to what I would harshly describe as "your drivel." Nevertheless, you are attacking a Duke player on a Duke fan web site, and we need to have a response, so that your view does not stand alone.

Your description of Paolo's "problem" (lack of effort) and your assertion that the NBA is truly concerned about this nonexistent problem are both arrogant and laughable. Paolo was a 19 YO freshman who was an immensely skilled player in an immense body. He doinated games with much older players. He will only get more skilled, more coordinated and physically stronger in the future. I expect he will be picked at the top of the draft, considered along with both Chet Holmgren (7-0) and Jabari Smith (6-10). I don't believe there is any significant concern about his commitment to basketball or to the effort he displays on the court. I thought he was a terrific player, who got even better as the season went along.

"Drivel" is accurate, albeit too kind. The idea that Coach K would play any player for extended minutes who was "f'ing around" out there -- meaning, not putting forth full effort -- would be laughable if it wasn't so insulting and outright wrong.

[Kedsy]

The best-case scenario for Keels might be Marcus Smart.

Of course, Smart came back for his sophomore season. And was the sixth pick in the draft.

All true. Although Marcus Smart as a freshman was the Big 12 POY, 2nd-team All American, and the National Freshman of the Year (and Big 12 FOY as well). So it might be best case but it's also quite a reach for Trevor.

[jimsumner]

Whose minutes would he take?

His own?

[SkyBrickey]

And to pile on a little more, I think this false perception about some lack of effort is because Paolo could dominate his defender in the paint and make it look so easy that the unappreciative fan yells, “why doesn’t he do that every time?”

I remember Grant Hill taking similar criticism at Duke because he could make the game look so easy.

The truth is defenses adjust just enough, hedging toward PB to deny the ball or sending early weak side help, that it’s impossible to do it every time. Even the great ones like Jordan and Lebron have to pick their spots and have to have a supporting cast to make defenses pay.

PB wasn’t the greatest defender but I never perceived that as a lack of effort, especially later in the year as he came on strong.

The kid had a fabulous year for our team. Period. I think he’s got a high ceiling and the highest floor of any of the top 4 in discussion. He’s a can’t miss NBA star.

[Steven43]

His own?

Haha, no, I’m saying which highly-ranked recruit(s) would perhaps have major minutes taken away by Keels returning? Something would have to give. That’s the reality of Duke having the best recruiting class in the nation basically every year.

Keels switching course and returning could upset the apple cart in unpredictable ways, potentially negatively affecting team chemistry. I’m not saying I don’t want him to return. I’m simply saying it might not turn out to be the major net positive many assume it would be.

[CDu]

Haha, no, I’m saying which highly-ranked recruit(s) would perhaps have major minutes taken away by Keels returning? Something would have to give. That’s the reality of Duke having the best recruiting class in the nation basically every year.

Keels switching course and returning could upset the apple cart in unpredictable ways, potentially negatively affecting team chemistry. I’m not saying I don’t want him to return. I’m simply saying it might not turn out to be the major net positive many assume it would be.

We don’t currently have a starting SG. So he wouldn’t be taking minutes from anyone that was expecting them next year. Baker and Schutt and Blakes were not (or at least should not have been) expecting to start.

Which is why we have been reaching out to the top SG transfer prospects in the event Keels doesn’t return.