2022 NBA Draft

[Rich]

Are you considering posting some before and after photos of the new and improved Rich?

Actually, I'm glad you asked. Here's Rich in 2020 (age 53) and in 2022 (age 55)

2020.jpg 2022.jpg

[KandG]

Keels tested poorly in skills and agility at the NBA draft combine but says he's "all in" for the NBA draft.

In the interest of full accountability, I posted several weeks ago that I thought Trevor would test well. I was very wrong on that, and the Athletic article is quite illuminating and expansive on Trevor’s limitations and the benefits of returning to school.

I still lean toward Trevor staying in the draft, but wouldn’t mind being wrong on that as well.

[HayYou]

There is also Josh McRoberts (less recent obviously) who improved A LOT as a soph and yet still dropped from likely 1st rounder to 2nd rounder. Which illustrates the point that “returning and being roughly the same player would just bump him to the 2nd round” is probably an incorrect assertion.

When your draft stock is almost entirely based on potential improvement, returning and not showing huge improvement can be devastating to your stock. Especially in the case of Keels, where he isn’t a good shooter and has poor measurables.

McRoberts, who went on to have a decent NBA journey-man career, didn't really fall as a result of his on court play. It justified late first round selection, AT WORST.

What the NBA learned in McBob's soph year doomed him. Specifically, the NBA learned that McBob had serious lower back injury issues. Outside of Harry Giles - esque knee issues (and Giles's otherworldly talent made him a better risk, and even so that was a bad pick), or blown Achillis (becoming less of an issue through medical advancement), lower back injuries are devastating for pro athletes. They are chronic issues, surgical/medical fixes are iffy AT BEST, and they are cumulative. They get worse as the season wears on, meaning that the player is likely to be far less available and effective later in the season. You know, when the playoffs start. Also, they get worse over the years. However bad back issues are in their rookie year, they are likely to be far worse in 4 years, worse still in year 5, etc.

James Michael McAdoo is, quite literally, the perfect comp. JMM was on the small side for PF, he was a good, but not elite athlete, and he had moderate skills (precluding a move to SF, or even really combo F). Ditto Keels. He's a little short for SG. He's a good, but not elite athlete. His "poor" showing quickness wise is somewhat offset by Keels being pretty strong for the position. Even factoring that in, Keels is on the low side athletically for NBA SG, much less PG. And Keels's skills are lacking, especially at PG. He drives OK, but wasn't great at finishing once he got to the rim. And the three point shooting was sub par for the position, which, ultimately, was the real killer. IF you aren't a spectacular athlete standing 6-7, you better be a capable shooter at SG, or at least showing all the signs of trending in that direction, or the NBA is going to have questions.

In year 2, it will be all about the shooting. Keels could lose 10-15 lbs (but lose about 20+lbs of fat while gaining 5ish pounds of muscle), and get quicker. But it wouldn't improve his height, which is a negative. I doubt his athleticism moves into elite territory, or really anywhere near elite. But if he doesn't move into the upper 30s percentage wise from 3 (as well as improving his finishing on drives, but this is far less important), his draft stock will likely evaporate.

There is serious risk in either decision. Either decision involves betting on himself and tons of work.

[HayYou]

This is just plain wrong as an objective: it would rate a 0.50 probability of $200 million and a 0.50 probability of $000 as an expected value of $100M, and better than a 0.50 probability of $100 million and a 0.50 probability of $50 million (exp. value of $75 million).

Basketball players, just like the rest of us, need to be risk averse -- and overweight (i.e., avoid) the bad outcomes.

This is ABSOLUTELY, the correct way of thinking for every single person on the planet.

But almost no one actually behaves that way.

[HayYou]

In the interest of full accountability, I posted several weeks ago that I thought Trevor would test well. I was very wrong on that, and the Athletic article is quite illuminating and expansive on Trevor’s limitations and the benefits of returning to school.

I still lean toward Trevor staying in the draft, but wouldn’t mind being wrong on that as well.

I also thought he'd test well. I think his failure to do so, is why we're seeing the media come out with quotes about it. The season ended, basically 2 months ago. For a male who isn't yet 20, one who plays a sport that places high demand on aerobic capability, 2 months is a lot of time. I know that school and classes and exams are a thing, but even so, it wouldn't be absurd to think he'd have shown up to the combine in pretty good shape, or at least noticeably better shape than he played in. It is the second biggest job interview process in the USA (after the NFL combine). Mark Williams was apparently in better shape at the combine.

That Trevor didn't noticeably get into better shape for the combine is, in itself, a red flag beyond the not being in shape. Being slow and soft is one thing. Not improving that in 2 months is a separate thing. To the NBA this means that either he didn't work on his body, which is bad, or that he did work on it and it didn't work, which is worse.

Or this is all a smokescreen by one or two teams late in the first round, or early second, who hope Keels falls to them.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Actually, I'm glad you asked. Here's Rich in 2020 (age 53) and in 2022 (age 55)

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Holy what? That's impressive.

What are your combine metrics?

[Steven43]

Actually, I'm glad you asked. Here's Rich in 2020 (age 53) and in 2022 (age 55)

2020.jpg 2022.jpg

Solid results during the pandemic.👍 Keep it up!

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Actually, I'm glad you asked. Here's Rich in 2020 (age 53) and in 2022 (age 55)

2020.jpg 2022.jpg

Good job staying off the Town Hall Deli diet!

[LasVegas]

I also thought he'd test well. I think his failure to do so, is why we're seeing the media come out with quotes about it. The season ended, basically 2 months ago. For a male who isn't yet 20, one who plays a sport that places high demand on aerobic capability, 2 months is a lot of time. I know that school and classes and exams are a thing, but even so, it wouldn't be absurd to think he'd have shown up to the combine in pretty good shape, or at least noticeably better shape than he played in. It is the second biggest job interview process in the USA (after the NFL combine). Mark Williams was apparently in better shape at the combine.

That Trevor didn't noticeably get into better shape for the combine is, in itself, a red flag beyond the not being in shape. Being slow and soft is one thing. Not improving that in 2 months is a separate thing. To the NBA this means that either he didn't work on his body, which is bad, or that he did work on it and it didn't work, which is worse.

Or this is all a smokescreen by one or two teams late in the first round, or early second, who hope Keels falls to them.

There has been coverage about Keel’s weight loss since the end of the season. He has stated he lost 10 lbs and body fat. People covering the combine have stated he looked much leaner. He obviously has taken this seriously and to suggest otherwise without any evidence to back it up is not a good look.

[CDu]

There has been coverage about Keel’s weight loss since the end of the season. He has stated he lost 10 lbs and body fat. People covering the combine have stated he looked much leaner. He obviously has taken this seriously and to suggest otherwise without any evidence to back it up is not a good look.

Yeah I have no doubt that he worked hard in prep for the draft.

That said, I'm not sure why folks would have thought he'd test well. The combine measures height, length, body fat%, agility, vertical, speed. Folks had to know he wasn't going to test well in vertical, agility, speed, height, or length. And he was probably going to be on the heavier side, since he has been on the heavier side all season. The combine was always going to be a problem for him, because he was never going to have good measurables.

Keels is the type of prospect who (in theory at least) shows out against live competition. He's not a guy who is going to win the swimsuit competition or the run/jump contests. Outside of participating in the 5-on-5s and excelling or showing a dramatically improved 3pt shot, he wasn't likely to have a good combine. And that's okay. The idea was that he might get drafted in the late 1st/early 2nd on the back of that UK game, similar to the high school pitcher who gets drafted after he threw 95mph in front of a scout one time. You hope that with time the talent that jumped out in that game materializes more often.

The risk of coming back is that, if that "fastball" doesn't appear more often next year, he's got the same problems as this year minus the projectible upside folks could envision this year. If the "fastball" does come more regularly next year (like it did for Kennard) then maybe he goes mid 1st round like Kennard did. But he's likely to face the same issues at the combine next year that he's facing this year. Maybe he can up that vertical a couple of inches, and trim down some of that "baby fat". But he's probably always going to be an undersized and underathletic SG or a really underathletic combo guard when it comes to the measurables at the combine.

[proelitedota]

Actually, I'm glad you asked. Here's Rich in 2020 (age 53) and in 2022 (age 55)

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From dad bod to chad bod.

[cato]

There is also Josh McRoberts (less recent obviously) who improved A LOT as a soph and yet still dropped from likely 1st rounder to 2nd rounder. Which illustrates the point that “returning and being roughly the same player would just bump him to the 2nd round” is probably an incorrect assertion.

When your draft stock is almost entirely based on potential improvement, returning and not showing huge improvement can be devastating to your stock. Especially in the case of Keels, where he isn’t a good shooter and has poor measurables.

Going back further, I wonder if Boozer would have gone in the first round if he left earlier? Then again, going in the second worked out better for him in the long run.

[CDu]

Going back further, I wonder if Boozer would have gone in the first round if he left earlier? Then again, going in the second worked out better for him in the long run.

Yep. Mason Plumlee probably would have gone in the 1st round as a pretty athletic frosh on a championship team (similar to McAdoo's story, though obviously Mason turned out to be the better player). He came back, and his game didn't really progress enough to stay in the 1st round anymore, so he stayed until his senior year.

[bundabergdevil]

Actually, I'm glad you asked. Here's Rich in 2020 (age 53) and in 2022 (age 55)

2020.jpg 2022.jpg

Someone better call animal control. Couple of pythons on the loose over here in DBR!

[scottdude8]

Yep. Mason Plumlee probably would have gone in the 1st round as a pretty athletic frosh on a championship team (similar to McAdoo's story, though obviously Mason turned out to be the better player). He came back, and his game didn't really progress enough to stay in the 1st round anymore, so he stayed until his senior year.

Aaand was still a mid first round pick…

[flyingdutchdevil]

Aaand was still a mid first round pick…

Who may have lost ~$25M across those extra 3 years he stayed at Duke.

I know, I know. Money isn't everything and Mason likely developed at Duke to warrant that lucrative 2nd contract.

[CDu]

Aaand was still a mid first round pick…

Yeah, as a senior. He wasn’t a 1st as a soph or junior. Which is why he came back as a senior.

We were talking about frosh to soph situations. Had Mason gone as a frosh, he goes in the first. He stayed, and it took him 3 seasons to get back to where he would have gone as a frosh.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Actually, I'm glad you asked. Here's Rich in 2020 (age 53) and in 2022 (age 55)

2020.jpg 2022.jpg

Your before pic is my current goal.

[Steven43]

Your before pic is my current goal.

Apologies in advance, but your comment was really funny! 😂 👍

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Apologies in advance, but your comment was really funny! 😂 👍

I'm glad it's funny. It's also true. I have no shame about my own self-effacing statements.