2022 NBA Draft

[Bluedog]

I don’t buy this. Giving some guys a few more minutes won’t keep them from hitting the portal if their main motivation is playing a major role and their prospects look questionable for the next year.

Kansas, Carolina and Duke all played tight rotations this past year. That is par for the course. The best teams have the best players and they play a ton. College ball is structured such that there is (almost) always a huge drop off from 7 to 8 to 9 in the rotation.

Guys like Blake and Schutt develop in practice until they win a spot in the rotation and then need to keep fighting to keep and expand that spot.

I will be very interested to see how Scheyer allocates playing time, but I expect changes to be at the margins, not wholesale.

Carolina did have a tight rotation with Hubert, but played a lot of guys under Roy consistently...which also was much to the chagrin of the fanbase who wanted the best players playing more to optimize the chance of winning a singular game. So, it's a "lose lose" here/"grass is greener" among the fanbases.

[cato]

Duke 2022 Lottery Squad looking sharp

Attachment 14587

Indeed they are looking sharp. Hat tip for Mark Williams in particular. Paulo’s got style for sure, and all of them look good, but if any of the guys are looking for tips I bet they look to Big Mark.

[cato]

Extended video, I think someone different (Andy Katz) asking a similar question: https://twitter.com/theandykatz/stat...7X2WwOOGST8OmA

Really sounds like someone who is still seriously considering a return, even if that isn’t the most likely scenario.

Also love his comments on Paolo.

Co-sign your love of Trevor’s comments on Paolo. The rest of the interview was pretty straightforward stuff. Andy with a leading question; Trevor revealing not much other than his close relationship with Coach Scheyer (which isn’t revealing anything).

But when asked why Paolo should be number one, he was engaged and convincing.

Like Tatum before him, any GM that passes up on Banchero is gonna regret it.

[johnb]

If Joey’s decision was based solely on minutes, and we get only Green (or Keels), Joey would have had the opportunity to compete to be 7th man, at worst. Even without an injury, he’d be the 3rd guard.

If it’s AJ + someone else, like Keels, he’s unlikely to get much of any PT.

We have historically awesome recruiters, and they are fully capable of providing a solid argument to AJ and Keels (or guys comparable) that Duke is capable of playing 7 starters and is “pro” enough that 25” a game is plenty to get into the 1st round, especially if you can hit 45% from 3 in big time games, a number that’s going to be possible given that other teams will need to focus elsewhere (which hadn’t been true for AJ).

Is this likely? I dunno, but I’m intrigued by Keels talking daily to Scheyer and by Joey’s departure. I mentioned this earlier, but I really don’t think we’re getting just one starter in the next month.

Otoh, this does go against my sworn resolve to never again expect a Duke player to return when they think they can get drafted in the top 40.

[cbolden1]

If Joey’s decision was based solely on minutes, and we get only Green (or Keels), Joey would have had the opportunity to compete to be 7th man, at worst. Even without an injury, he’d be the 3rd guard.

If it’s AJ + someone else, like Keels, he’s unlikely to get much of any PT.

We have historically awesome recruiters, and they are fully capable of providing a solid argument to AJ and Keels (or guys comparable) that Duke is capable of playing 7 starters and is “pro” enough that 25” a game is plenty to get into the 1st round, especially if you can hit 45% from 3 in big time games, a number that’s going to be possible given that other teams will need to focus elsewhere (which hadn’t been true for AJ).

Is this likely? I dunno, but I’m intrigued by Keels talking daily to Scheyer and by Joey’s departure. I mentioned this earlier, but I really don’t think we’re getting just one starter in the next month.

Otoh, this does go against my sworn resolve to never again expect a Duke player to return when they think they can get drafted in the top 40.

If this is the case (unlikely) than that is honesty pretty I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. of Jon and staff. I assume the staff told Joey he would have would the opportunity to play a good role this year and that was the reason for him to stay. If they instead are recruiting over Joey (after the deadline mind you) and expecting keels back and this wasn't mentioned as a outcome to joey when he made his decision then that not a good look and not very fair of the staff.

Again I think that this isn't happening and they haven't done that but if in the low probability that this is the situation not good on them.

[niveklaen]

If Joey’s decision was based solely on minutes, and we get only Green (or Keels), Joey would have had the opportunity to compete to be 7th man, at worst. Even without an injury, he’d be the 3rd guard.

If it’s AJ + someone else, like Keels, he’s unlikely to get much of any PT.

We have historically awesome recruiters, and they are fully capable of providing a solid argument to AJ and Keels (or guys comparable) that Duke is capable of playing 7 starters and is “pro” enough that 25” a game is plenty to get into the 1st round, especially if you can hit 45% from 3 in big time games, a number that’s going to be possible given that other teams will need to focus elsewhere (which hadn’t been true for AJ).

Is this likely? I dunno, but I’m intrigued by Keels talking daily to Scheyer and by Joey’s departure. I mentioned this earlier, but I really don’t think we’re getting just one starter in the next month.

Otoh, this does go against my sworn resolve to never again expect a Duke player to return when they think they can get drafted in the top 40.

I like that you basically just used AJ's numbers from this year - 25MPG, 45% from 3 - AJ shows that you can be a 1st round pick playing this well in limited minutes - and AJ did this with big holes in his game (no D, no ball handling, mediocre rebounding)

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...585/aj-griffin

(Only caveat with the AJ example was that he was basically tied for 5th in minutes - so he does not get us the 7th man example, but he was one of 4 perimeter players playing 25+mpg)

[JasonEvans]

this does go against my sworn resolve to never again expect a Duke player to return when they think they can get drafted in the top 40.

I just want to point out that Mark Williams came back to Duke for his soph season even though he was pretty confident he would be taken in the top 40 last year.

I have been told by good sources that Mark and his family and folks at Duke reached out to the NBA to understand what Mark's options were a year ago. They were told the NBA was quite impressed with what they saw late in the season but that it was only like 50-50 that Mark would go in the first round. He was told that coming back and displaying better shooting touch and being a more physical presence in the paint were keys to boosting his stock... and he also had to show some consistency in the rim protection and close-in finishing that we were seeing from Mark over Duke's final half dozen games or so. Mark was told that if he did those things he was pretty much assured of being a first round draft pick and that he had a chance to move up into the middle of the first round if things went really well.

All of this was done before Mark made the decision whether to declare. He heard enough so that he knew he wanted to come back and work on his game at Duke, not in the NBA (and likely spending a lot of time in the G-League).

But, the reality that everyone who complains about Duke losing everyone to the draft needs to understand is that Mark Williams absolutely considered the NBA draft a year ago and made the choice to come back to school. It may not have been as dramatic as guys who put their name in and the pull it out, but I would argue that Mark was a lot closer to being in the draft than someone like Javin was when he chose to come back after "testing the waters."

And it is worth noting that the decision was also made last summer that, barring a truly disastrous season, Mark would be turning pro after his soph year which is why Duke was so aggressive in grabbing Lively and Flip even before any of us had seen Mark Williams play like a first-round draft pick.

[kshepinthehouse]

Keels’ strength and agility drills were pretty ugly.

[scottdude8]

Keels’ strength and agility drills were pretty ugly.

The situation is starting to remind me a bit of EJ Liddell last year at OSU, who purportedly was set on the NBA, but had a very bad showing at the combine. He came back, played great, and is now an almost sure fire first round pick.

[JasonEvans]

The situation is starting to remind me a bit of EJ Liddell last year at OSU, who purportedly was set on the NBA, but had a very bad showing at the combine. He came back, played great, and is now an almost sure fire first round pick.

Liddell and Keels have pretty similar draft stock this year. I've seen EJ everywhere from about #20 to #40.

[JasonEvans]

Here is how Trevor Keels did in his strength and agility drills at the combine: https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/comb...onYear=2022-23

Standing vertical leap - 48th out of 51 players measured
Max vertical leap - 45th (Patrick Baldwin was dead last)
3/4 court sprint - 30th
Lane agility - 30th
Shuttle run - 48th (out of 50)


By the way, Wendell Moore was...

Standing vertical - 4th
Max vertical - 6th
3/4 court sprint - 34th
Lane agility - 10th
Shuttle run - 35th (out of 50)

Worth noting that 32 of the invitees chose not to take part in any of the strength/agility drills including the vast majority of the guys forecast to be taken in the top 20 or so.

I don't know how Trevor can be at all encouraged by how the combine is going for him. He's not measuring well in any way. I'm not saying he is killing his chances of being a first rounder, but the scout who wants to take him with a first round pick has a tougher case to make than if Trevor had shown more athletic ability.

[scottdude8]

Here is how Trevor Keels did in his strength and agility drills at the combine: https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/comb...onYear=2022-23

Standing vertical leap - 48th out of 51 players measured
Max vertical leap - 45th (Patrick Baldwin was dead last)
3/4 court sprint - 30th
Lane agility - 30th
Shuttle run - 48th (out of 50)


By the way, Wendell Moore was...

Standing vertical - 4th
Max vertical - 6th
3/4 court sprint - 34th
Lane agility - 10th
Shuttle run - 35th (out of 50)

Worth noting that 32 of the invitees chose not to take part in any of the strength/agility drills including the vast majority of the guys forecast to be taken in the top 20 or so.

I don't know how Trevor can be at all encouraged by how the combine is going for him. He's not measuring well in any way. I'm not saying he is killing his chances of being a first rounder, but the scout who wants to take him with a first round pick has a tougher case to make than if Trevor had shown more athletic ability.

Yeah, Trevor’s NBA’s calling card is going to have to be how unique he is as a strong guard. That doesn’t translate well to traditional measurements, so he’s going to have to prove it on the court. Did he prove it enough this year? That seems to be the operative question.

[dukelifer]

Here is how Trevor Keels did in his strength and agility drills at the combine: https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/comb...onYear=2022-23

Standing vertical leap - 48th out of 51 players measured
Max vertical leap - 45th (Patrick Baldwin was dead last)
3/4 court sprint - 30th
Lane agility - 30th
Shuttle run - 48th (out of 50)


By the way, Wendell Moore was...

Standing vertical - 4th
Max vertical - 6th
3/4 court sprint - 34th
Lane agility - 10th
Shuttle run - 35th (out of 50)

Worth noting that 32 of the invitees chose not to take part in any of the strength/agility drills including the vast majority of the guys forecast to be taken in the top 20 or so.

I don't know how Trevor can be at all encouraged by how the combine is going for him. He's not measuring well in any way. I'm not saying he is killing his chances of being a first rounder, but the scout who wants to take him with a first round pick has a tougher case to make than if Trevor had shown more athletic ability.

Has to be able to shoot and during the season he showed himself to be an okay shooter but not great. He will have to hang his hat on that at next level, and I am not sure he has shown enough to be a first rounder.

[JasonEvans]

Paolo seems to think Trevor was really impressive in a workout session for scouts today.

https://twitter.com/Pp_doesit/status...75010448809984

never seen scouts clap after a pro day… shoutout keel mode brother showed out������

As many have noted, the poor measurables won't matter if Trevor looks the part of a NBA guard in his workouts for teams.

[JasonEvans]

I’ve been looking at some box scores and reading some stuff from the five on five scrimmages going on at the NBA combine. Clearly, two of these stand out players thus far have been Dereon Seabron and Terquavion Smith from NC State. Smith has been so good in the athletic testing and now the scrimmages that some say he could find his way into the first round. He’s at least a likely early 2nd rounder.

How was NC State so bad this year with a couple dudes who are tearing it up at the NBA combine on the roster?

[cbolden1]

Here is how Trevor Keels did in his strength and agility drills at the combine: https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/comb...onYear=2022-23

Standing vertical leap - 48th out of 51 players measured
Max vertical leap - 45th (Patrick Baldwin was dead last)
3/4 court sprint - 30th
Lane agility - 30th
Shuttle run - 48th (out of 50)


By the way, Wendell Moore was...

Standing vertical - 4th
Max vertical - 6th
3/4 court sprint - 34th
Lane agility - 10th
Shuttle run - 35th (out of 50)

Worth noting that 32 of the invitees chose not to take part in any of the strength/agility drills including the vast majority of the guys forecast to be taken in the top 20 or so.

I don't know how Trevor can be at all encouraged by how the combine is going for him. He's not measuring well in any way. I'm not saying he is killing his chances of being a first rounder, but the scout who wants to take him with a first round pick has a tougher case to make than if Trevor had shown more athletic ability.

For comparison

Marcus Smart
Lane Agility- 10.62
Shuttle Run-2.96
3/4 Court Sprint- 3.26
Standing Vertical Leap-33
Max Vertical Leap-36

Keels
Lane Agility-11.33
Shuttle Run-3.32
3/4 Court Sprint-3.27
Standing Vertical Leap-24.5
Max Vertical Leap-31

Couldn't Find Lou Dort but he's also a lot more explosive. So im not sure who Keels really compares too if he's not a knock down shooter and atm he isn't.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

For comparison

Marcus Smart
Lane Agility Shuttle Run 3/4 Court Sprint Standing Vertical Leap Max Vertical Leap
10.62 2.96 3.26 33" 36"

Keels
Lane Agility Shuttle Run 3/4 Court Sprint Standing Vertical Leap Max Vertical Leap
11.33 3.32 3.27 24.5 31.0

Couldn't Find Lou Dort but he's also a lot more explosive. So im not sure who Keels really compares too if he's not a knock down shooter and atm he isn't.

So, wow. All this combine stuff makes me wonder how Keels expects to make the NBA this year or in future years. Seems his measureables are very poor.

Not trying to look through Duke Blue glasses here, but shy of coming back and really establishing your shooting and your leadership and hoping that impresses enough to inspire a team to give him a shot...

I like Keels. I'd love to see him succeed at this level and the next. But not many players take that Quinn Cook path to success.

[johnb]

Here is how Trevor Keels did in his strength and agility drills at the combine: https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/comb...onYear=2022-23

Standing vertical leap - 48th out of 51 players measured
Max vertical leap - 45th (Patrick Baldwin was dead last)
3/4 court sprint - 30th
Lane agility - 30th
Shuttle run - 48th (out of 50)


By the way, Wendell Moore was...

Standing vertical - 4th
Max vertical - 6th
3/4 court sprint - 34th
Lane agility - 10th
Shuttle run - 35th (out of 50)…...

I’m curious which of these measurables can be improved by a year dedicated to getting into great shape. I didn’t immediately find google info on this. It may not be easy for some guys to drop a lot of body fat or significantly improve their vertical. Maybe easier than lengthening arms, but there is still a genetic component.

There may also be a core/genetic element in regards to character, which is a strong Keels attribute and which will also be there next year where ever he is.

I’m still cautiously optimistic we’ll see him back in a Duke uniform, and that the NBA exposure will best serve to motivate him into becoming a monster athlete, with measurables improved as much as they can be. In some way, Keels may be working through a covid thing (relative isolation during some formative years), a great athlete thing (most guys he’d have played with growing up just weren’t as good), and a Duke thing (5 stars with good years often go pro after 1 year).

Returning would in some ways be a sign of confidence that he can develop like Mark Williams (or Grayson Allen) and become an NBA starter with a year of daily, focused effort.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I’m curious which of these measurables can be improved by a year dedicated to getting into great shape. I didn’t immediately find google info on this. It may not be easy for some guys to drop a lot of body fat or significantly improve their vertical. Maybe easier than lengthening arms, but there is still a genetic component.

There may also be a core/genetic element in regards to character, which is a strong Keels attribute and which will also be there next year where ever he is.

I’m still cautiously optimistic we’ll see him back in a Duke uniform, and that the NBA exposure will best serve to motivate him into becoming a monster athlete, with measurables improved as much as they can be. In some way, Keels may be working through a covid thing (relative isolation during some formative years), a great athlete thing (most guys he’d have played with growing up just weren’t as good), and a Duke thing (5 stars with good years often go pro after 1 year).

Returning would in some ways be a sign of confidence that he can develop like Mark Williams (or Grayson Allen) and become an NBA starter with a year of daily, focused effort.

That's basically my take too. Can't improve your wing-span. Maybe can add a bit on your vertical, cut some sprint time.

But... the mentals, leadership, shooting, defense... those things can really be dialed in with coaching and hard work.

[scottdude8]

So, wow. All this combine stuff makes me wonder how Keels expects to make the NBA this year or in future years. Seems his measureables are very poor.

Not trying to look through Duke Blue glasses here, but shy of coming back and really establishing your shooting and your leadership and hoping that impresses enough to inspire a team to give him a shot...

I like Keels. I'd love to see him succeed at this level and the next. But not many players take that Quinn Cook path to success.

Yeah, when you're at the fringe of the 1st/2nd round, these measurables seem to have a big effect on risers and fallers. I'm nervous that, with these measurables, Trevor could be in for a disappointing draft night were he to stay.

That said, these numbers don't quantify actual basketball skills, and at times this year Trevor showed a very unique skillset. His body is unique for a guard, so he's going to have to show on the floor that he can translate that into production, both defensively and offensively. He showed flashes of it this year, but inconsistently. An NBA GM is going to have to go out on a limb to draft him in the first round based off of a combination of that inconsistency and these measurables. But if he comes back and develops into the star we all think he can be, specifically upping his shooting %, there's reason to think come next year the tape trumps combine numbers.

More and more, I'm hoping Trevor comes back not only for our sakes, but for his as well. That said, we never know what he's hearing directly from scouts/GMs behind the scenes. It sounds like he's going into the process with a clear head, so I hope that yields an outcome he's happy with.