Way Too Early 2022-2023 Speculation

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Only way Roach leaves for Louisville vs being the captain and dominant PG on a top 5 team that plays every game on TV is if Louisville puts some kind of crazy NIL package deal on the table. And once something like that happens to Duke, it will be really tough to hang in there as a fan. Unfortunately, I know that day is coming….

Why would we assume the "crazy NIL packages" would be a one way street? I'm not suggesting that it isn't, but why ought Louisville have more access yo this than Duke?

I would argue that when/if it becomes clear that it is a two way bargaining platform, THAT is when my interest will wane.

[lotusland]

Despite the press narrative (pre-NCAAT) about an inexperienced/inconsistent Duke ‘team’ , there was usually the ‘best talent’ nonetheless thrown in. I think 19-20 yo’s hear the latter louder than the former. Consequently, I think all starters and Keels declare for April 24. If Roach proves to be the exception, that seems to make for another pre-season classic on-paper ranking for current-era Duke….4 super-talented prospects starting along with an experienced guard. I suspect Scheyer is ethically-committed to the model although since K opened up the usage of portal, Scheyer can safely look to expand on it. So, that’s my best fortune-telling as of today.

Even though Keels is probably lowest of the mock-draft numbers, he is still on the list of 60 and he just strikes me as someone as not having a boatload of team-orientation. While Wendell started the year as an ‘improving his stock with age’ aura, it seemed to wane as the year progressed. If he has paycheck dreams, I think it best for him personally to try and cash-in now, lest a so-so senior year does him in fully.

So, portal results unknown, I think Duke 22-23 outlook is a repeat of 21-22.

So we have to settle for another Final Four?

[UrinalCake]

If Moore comes back it wouldn’t be to improve his draft stock, it would be because he loves Duke and just wants to play another year and graduate, similar to Grayson after his sophomore year. I’m a little surprised his projection is as high as it is, he seems like a great college player who will struggle with the increased size and athleticism at the next level. He started out the season great but really struggled after the Covid break and then finished playing better but still nowhere near the level we saw in November and December. And it feels like the draft projections are still based on those performances.

I’m also surprised AJ is as high as he is and I wonder if he will slip when we get closer to the draft. Despite his physique he is not functionally very athletic on the court. His three point percentage took a nose dive over the past month or so of the season, he has a slow release without much lift and doesn’t shoot off the dribble, so again I worry about how it will translate. Keels could use another year to improve his stock but I doubt he stays, he has an NBA body and is a plus defender and honestly I think when Steward left last summer Keels saw an opening to come in and follow the same OAD path.

I will say that I saw him in the background at the end of the game and he was completely in tears. K said in the post game that all of the team was crying in the locker room. Say what you will about OAD’s not unpacking their bags, but these guys cared deeply about winning and left it all on the floor for us.

[budwom]

Sounds like there's a lot of talk about Nolan Smith taking a head coach job somewhere in the ACC?

nay. Lucrative assistant job at Lville seems likely though. Very likely.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Only way Roach leaves for Louisville vs being the captain and dominant PG on a top 5 team that plays every game on TV is if Louisville puts some kind of crazy NIL package deal on the table. And once something like that happens to Duke, it will be really tough to hang in there as a fan. Unfortunately, I know that day is coming….

Yep, yep. Ironically, knowing this is helping me move on tremendously this week.

Why would we assume the "crazy NIL packages" would be a one way street? I'm not suggesting that it isn't, but why ought Louisville have more access yo this than Duke?

I would argue that when/if it becomes clear that it is a two way bargaining platform, THAT is when my interest will wane.

EVERYTHING is a two way platform. Like I said, let's see how this is working out in 2,3 years. Jay Bilas and Nick Saban have two very different ideas...I think Saban is right.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Yep, yep. Ironically, knowing this is helping me move on tremendously this week.



EVERYTHING is a two way platform. Like I said, let's see how this is working out in 2,3 years. Jay Bilas and Nick Saban have two very different ideas...I think Saban is right.

Can you elaborate on Saban/Bilas takes?

[Matches]

EVERYTHING is a two way platform. Like I said, let's see how this is working out in 2,3 years. Jay Bilas and Nick Saban have two very different ideas...I think Saban is right.

Too early to tell yet, of course, but I have a fear that the large state schools, with huge local alumni bases, may have an advantage over private schools in the NIL era. May not affect football too much as the big state schools already dominate, but in theory could have a big impact on basketball. We’ll see.

[scottdude8]

Roach isn’t getting drafted this year. No chance. Even if the draft still had a 3rd round he wouldn’t get picked.

The only concern I have about Roach is that he potentially could follow Nolan to Louisville, if Nolan goes to Louisville.

Are there any sources on this front, either about Jeremy or Nolan?

[SkyBrickey]

Why would we assume the "crazy NIL packages" would be a one way street? I'm not suggesting that it isn't, but why ought Louisville have more access yo this than Duke?

I would argue that when/if it becomes clear that it is a two way bargaining platform, THAT is when my interest will wane.

It will be a two way street. But if Duke business alums are effectively bidding against Louisville alums for a key player like Roach, I’m probably out as a fan.

When I became a huge Duke basketball fan as a student from 86-90, we had the deserved reputation of bringing in high-character kids who were tremendous basketball players who also got it done in the classroom and graduated with very few exceptions. My cheering interest has mostly weathered one and done although I hope Coach J shifts the recruiting mix so that we are starting 1-2 of these guys a season and not 3-4. I believe we will field better teams and it will give us fans a chance to watch guys like Wendell Moore and Mark Williams develop.

If we end up bidding against some Louisville booster for the services of a player, that’s probably a bridge too far for me. I’m at the age where I’ve lost interest in professional sports. I hope that doesn’t ever happen with my Blue Devils, but it might.

[HoKogan]

An improved Keels could be a several million dollar difference from this year to next. I really think he should come back, he could go from being a borderline 1st to 2nd rounder this year to guaranteed 1st next, if he is much more consistent offensively.

I think thats the frustrating thing about Duke's current MO and the kids they recruit. Nobody is going to begrudge a freak like Zion, or someone like RJ and Paolo for going, thats where their next level is and barring severe injury, they will be in the league for years. Its the other kids that I think treat the draft like a lottery ticket that they absolutely must cash in right now, instead of thinking about the longer term investment and the better return that would yield. It differs for each players. Keels may only need one more year of college ball to make that next level. Someone like Matthew Hurt should have stayed probably until their eligibility was exhausted, because they had holes in their game they had to improve to play next level. Its hard to turn down first round money, but we're having guys leave who aren't even projected 2nd round and it doesn't make any sense to me.

I'm hoping the NIL stuff will help the borderline prospects, and I hope they are getting honest advice. Hopefully it will improve the college basketball product, team continuity, and their tenure in the pros when they do leave.

[Matches]

It will be a two way street. But if Duke business alums are effectively bidding against Louisville alums for a key player like Roach, I’m probably out as a fan.
.

Yea that might be it for me too if it comes to pass. I do like professional sports, including the NBA, and at that point college would just be a watered-down pro league. Might as well follow the real thing.

[TrickDribbles99]

It will be a two way street. But if Duke business alums are effectively bidding against Louisville alums for a key player like Roach, I’m probably out as a fan.

When I became a huge Duke basketball fan as a student from 86-90, we had the deserved reputation of bringing in high-character kids who were tremendous basketball players who also got it done in the classroom and graduated with very few exceptions. My cheering interest has mostly weathered one and done although I hope Coach J shifts the recruiting mix so that we are starting 1-2 of these guys a season and not 3-4. I believe we will field better teams and it will give us fans a chance to watch guys like Wendell Moore and Mark Williams develop.

If we end up bidding against some Louisville booster for the services of a player, that’s probably a bridge too far for me. I’m at the age where I’ve lost interest in professional sports. I hope that doesn’t ever happen with my Blue Devils, but it might.

So very agree with this. It's getting pretty gross and you just can't un-ring the bell at this point. What has been the "secret sauce" of the most contemptible and unethical (UCLA/Gilbert years, UNCheat/modern era, UNLV/Tark years, etc.) programs for years is now SOP for any program hoping to remain relevant. I am at least confident that Duke will be able to play by the new rules and still be competitive, but it will be tough, no doubt.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Can you elaborate on Saban/Bilas takes?

Bilas is pretty out front that the NIL is simply a win, something that the sport needed. I've yet to see him issue any cautionary comments about it....(I'm very curious if someone has heard any...I have unplugged a bit this season...so I may have missed something).

Saban is very coy in his comments, but for those reading between the lines - which admittedly can get risky in translation - I get the feeling he thinks this will hurt the sport in the long run, even as it helps him and his program currently. See Matches comment below...it's along those lines. He also mentioned the non revenue sports...without going into detail...I would only interpret that as meaning that money is fungible, and college sports is only going to attract so much money, period...in the long run. Bilas seems to think that the new NIL money is found money, and won't impact the existing money. Bilas is right in the short run, I think Saban will be in the long run. Again, assuming I have interpreted his comments correctly...

All of this dovetails on to Matches below...

Too early to tell yet, of course, but I have a fear that the large state schools, with huge local alumni bases, may have an advantage over private schools in the NIL era. May not affect football too much as the big state schools already dominate, but in theory could have a big impact on basketball. We’ll see.

It will only increase the demographic advantage of the big schools in football. In basketball, a small school with small alum base probably cannot afford even a 2 year slump. Also, in time, watch for huge population center schools to re emerge as powers...because NIL is about advertising and advertising is about numbers. I wouldn't be surprised to see Southern Cal and UCLA re emerge with the big money populations and appeal of So Cal culturally. Even St. Johns, in NYC, could explode again....

Having said all this, social media has made location not as important. Zion Williamson was popular world wide...and for the time being, so is Duke to an extent...but only in basketball. Duke's social media team was ahead of the curve, but others are catching up. FAST. I don't see how Duke FB even survives for very long in this climate frankly. It will also be interesting to see how 18-20 year olds handle massive "pay" disparity in the locker rooms...what happens when an unpaid lineman allows his 3 mill a year QB to get sacked and injured? How will fans react to that?

This is a whole new world....and I certainly don't make these predictions with "thus sayeth" certitude...other than this one prediction, which is that everything is different now...and those who thought this was all good (NIL and portal) will be proven at least somewhat wrong.

Like I said, gonna be interesting to see where we are in about 3 years...

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

It will be a two way street. But if Duke business alums are effectively bidding against Louisville alums for a key player like Roach, I’m probably out as a fan.
...

If we end up bidding against some Louisville booster for the services of a player, that’s probably a bridge too far for me. I’m at the age where I’ve lost interest in professional sports. I hope that doesn’t ever happen with my Blue Devils, but it might.

This I agree with. While I acknowledge that it is a "good" thing for the athletes, it doesn't resonate well for me as a fan.

I don't think that Duke/ACC/NCAS would suffer in my absence, but it would severely test my ability to remain interested.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

This I agree with. While I acknowledge that it is a "good" thing for the athletes, it doesn't resonate well for me as a fan.

I don't think that Duke/ACC/NCAS would suffer in my absence, but it would severely test my ability to remain interested.

But what if there are millions of fans who feel the way you do? (and I do). What is surely a good thing for some athletes today...may end up shrinking the entire universe for all college athletes going forward. I'm not necessarily predicting that, though I think it's a possibility...I also know that what turns me off...doesn't impact my 26 year old son's enthusiasm.

[TrickDribbles99]

Bilas and many others were seduced by catchy sloganeering and simplistic thinking. The money wasn't going to come out of nowhere, so resources will be allocated to the "best investment" in each program, region or city. The greed and envy between schools, different sports and individual teammates will be toxic. The aftereffects of NIL will be significant and it's hard to see a way that it ends up a net positive.

[arnie]

Bilas and many others were seduced by catchy sloganeering and simplistic thinking. The money wasn't going to come out of nowhere, so resources will be allocated to the "best investment" in each program, region or city. The greed and envy between schools, different sports and individual teammates will be toxic. The aftereffects of NIL will be significant and it's hard to see a way that it ends up a net positive.

But Bilas is the smartest person in the room and never wrong. If NIL actually diminishes the relevancy of college b-ball with side effects that hurt non-revenue athletes ; he will be silent or a denier of the facts.

[CasualObserver]

Some other aspects, somewhat countervailing, that may come into play:

-I’ve read the OAD rule is a very likely topic in 2025 when the NBA Collective Bargaining agreement is up for renewal with the agent’s union. I’ve interpreted agents are in favor of direct entry, but have resisted previously due to previous conditions about disclosing medical records to NBA. Since 2023 season recruiting is well underway, the possibility may start affecting top recruits thinking shortly thereafter.

-While there is certainly the ‘local area’ aspect to NIL money, top level players may well attract national brands as well. Duke’s notoriety, whether from supportive or non-supportive sources, is still name recognition beyond most programs…..which is what advertising money looks for first.

[jv001]

Bilas and many others were seduced by catchy sloganeering and simplistic thinking. The money wasn't going to come out of nowhere, so resources will be allocated to the "best investment" in each program, region or city. The greed and envy between schools, different sports and individual teammates will be toxic. The aftereffects of NIL will be significant and it's hard to see a way that it ends up a net positive.

College basketball is never going to be as enjoyable as it once was. The transfer portal where there's no penalty for players to change schools like they change underwear. Players leaving for a chance to make an NBA roster who don't have the talent to make their college team great. NIL $$$$ from boosters. A beautiful game that once was for the student athlete is gone. But I'll still root for my Duke Blue Devils come hell or high water.

GoDuke!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Bilas and many others were seduced by catchy sloganeering and simplistic thinking. The money wasn't going to come out of nowhere, so resources will be allocated to the "best investment" in each program, region or city. The greed and envy between schools, different sports and individual teammates will be toxic. The aftereffects of NIL will be significant and it's hard to see a way that it ends up a net positive.

I agree with Bilas. If there's that quantity of money floating around revenue sports via TV contracts, endorsements, etc - keeping it out of the hands of the talent producing that revenue is just unfair.

Schools don't have the capacity to directly pay players - budgets for non-revenue sports would suffer. So, let players have agents and negotiate based on their own recognizance.

Also, next time you are making a comment, I'd prefer if you didn't refer to your debate partner (myself or Jay Bilas) as "simplistic thinking." Makes it very tempting to take pot shots.

Is NIL complicated? Obviously. Is it fair for the players? Moreso than not being paid, in my simplistic opinion.

Do the complicated issues mean that we should NOT allow the players their compensation? I absolutely don't think so.

If you were a part of a labor union fighting for more pay and better conditions, and management said they couldn't do that because it was "complicated" would you accept that rationalization?

Greed and envy aren't new to sports. People didn't seem to mind it nearly as much when the greed and envy were limited to those in power.