MBB: Duke vs Ark (Sat 3/26, 8:49 pm, TBS) Pre- & In-Game Thread

[Rich]

while Williams is theoretically a challenging matchup for Mark if he pulls him to the perimeter

I read this and thought "Sybil"

[wilson]

It sounded like Duke had a good contingent of fans at the Chase Center yesterday. I wonder if Arkansas did too. Who will have more fan support in San Francisco inside the stadium tomorrow?

Aside from the usual well-traveled Duke contingent, I would imagine there are more Duke grads in the Bay Area poised to snap up suddenly available Gonzaga tickets than there are Arkansas alums able to do the same.

[-jk]

Aside from the usual well-traveled Duke contingent, I would imagine there are more Duke grads in the Bay Area poised to snap up suddenly available Gonzaga tickets than there are Arkansas alums able to do the same.

I'm not sure how tickets are being allocated. Duke told us we only had tickets for Saturday if we won yesterday.

-jk

[KandG]

Another small note about what may or may not transfer over from the game we just played: I know there’s some discussion over how useful or detrimental Bates Jones’ minutes were against Tech. One thing that struck me is how aggressively Tech went at Jones on offense (and we all saw the results).

Some teams stick to their system and look for the best shots from certain players, and don’t necessarily hunt individual mismatches too overtly at the risk of disrupting their system. Tech had no reservation about going at Jones though, and I suspect Arkansas, given the chaotic and opportunistic quality of their offense, will do similarly.

I’d rather see Joey in there for spot minutes when we use the bench, even if he gives up size, because whatever his issues, I think he’s smarter situationally in managing his limitations defensively. It’s only going to be a couple of minutes regardless, and maybe even less given Arkansas has more quick guards to throw at us.

[HayYou]

One positive thing for Duke was the post game reactions of the winners.
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Duke behaved as if they'd won a tough game vs a great opponent. They talked and acted appreciative of the moment, but were clearly already thinking about the turnaround for Saturday. Next play.
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Arkansas acted like that Sweet Sixteen win was for the natty. They behaved EXACTLY the way teams do once they've won the national title. Dancing and hugging, spraying water on the coach in the locker room.
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They won a huge game. They have another one tomorrow. Duke seems to understand this, and did so immediately after the game. I'd bet the Ark coaching staff is currently stressing this to their team.

[CDu]

Some teams stick to their system and look for the best shots from certain players, and don’t necessarily hunt individual mismatches too overtly at the risk of disrupting their system. Tech had no reservation about going at Jones though, and I suspect Arkansas, given the chaotic and opportunistic quality of their offense, will do similarly.

Not only the nature of the team, but also the coach. Musselman is an NBA guy, well-versed on identifying and exploiting matchups.

That said, I would expect them to exploit either Baker or Jones. So if Coach K decides to go to one of those guys, I don't care so much which one it is but rather that the stint is brief.

The good news though is that, because Arkansas is smaller at the forward spot, Coach K can potentially steal minutes for Banchero by just going with Griffin at the PF spot and 3 guards.

[BigWayne]

Aside from the usual well-traveled Duke contingent, I would imagine there are more Duke grads in the Bay Area poised to snap up suddenly available Gonzaga tickets than there are Arkansas alums able to do the same.

I'm not sure how tickets are being allocated. Duke told us we only had tickets for Saturday if we won yesterday.

-jk

Based on who was in the building last night and agreement with what was said above, there will probably be more Duke fans than Arkansas fans in the building tomorrow. All the tickets are electronic. The Gonzaga fans sitting behind us had already sold their Saturday tickets by halftime of our game.

[CameronDuke]

Any other folks on the east coast have heavy eyes right now like I do?

May be time to turn on the Dell Technologies match play PGA Tour event soon and get horizontal.

At least tomorrow’s tip is 8:49 pm ET for us and it’s a Saturday night.

[HayYou]

Not only the nature of the team, but also the coach. Musselman is an NBA guy, well-versed on identifying and exploiting matchups.

That said, I would expect them to exploit either Baker or Jones. So if Coach K decides to go to one of those guys, I don't care so much which one it is but rather that the stint is brief.

The good news though is that, because Arkansas is smaller at the forward spot, Coach K can potentially steal minutes for Banchero by just going with Griffin at the PF spot and 3 guards.

See, I don't think that happens vs Ark. Vs TT, Duke couldn't "go small." Our small lineup is one of PB or MW alongside our 4 perimeter players. I think K has realized that Mark can handle playing C in small ball, and K can and has used that to rest PB in the first half. Only, TT had bigs and wings that could exploit our 4th wing (Keels or Griffin). Baker was a non starter. as an option. Bates was at least tall enough to cause some consideration by the other bigs. Once they realized what he was, they attacked, he fouled, left the game, etc.
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Vs Ark, Baker isn't quite as detrimental, because they'll likely have a guy on the court that is barely an offensive threat. This means we can rest PB via small ball, and let Williams play C with the 4 rotation guards/wings.
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Thank God for the late start, as I'd like as much rest as possible.

[sagegrouse]

Have to force notae into bad shots.

But if we hit our free throws and play our game (for 2 halves) then we should be fine.

"Notae non bene?"

[HayYou]

"Notae non bene?"

Oof.

[jaywilliams22]

I'm not sure we see Baker or Bates Jones in the Arkansas game. I'd be less surprised to see Jaylen Blakes for a few spot minutes given their depth at the guard spot.

[CasualObserver]

Lunardi thinks we can get to NoLa

Yeah, it would be sweet to be able to go on air and hand Lunardi, along with Seth Greenberg, a sarcastic takedown in light of the past 2 Duke games. Actually, I remember an ESPN article where 58 or something ESPN analysts all posted their picks……clearly, none of them earning their paycheck on tournament prognostication ability this year.

But, I take the point of your post’s title……as soon as the naysayers start to shift, need to re-set the mind. What previously was a challenge on the players to ‘believe’…and strive for calm, confident play regardless….the belief has been established by the results. Not sure of the word, but maybe ‘determination’ becomes the primary mindset now.

No doubt Gonzaga ‘believed’, but I wonder if they might not have been riding the ‘belief’ a bit too much to the detriment of ‘determination’…….or something along those lines.

[SoCalDukeFan]

I hope we get off to a good start. Not sure my heart can take another 3 early TO’s and putting ourselves in a hole.

Go Duke!

[FUBARDoorBuster]

Would Duke coaches learn anything from watching how Auburn did against Ark defensively? Did Jabari Williams play their center when pulled out to the perimeter? Did they pull Kessler out to defend, then open up the middle? Do they switch like we have, or fight over screens? Go zone? Anybody remeber those games? All I remeber from the SEC was coaches ripping their shirts off after a win. Turned my eyes away. Auburns front court was the one that most resembled ours, and curious how they decided to play. Whether Auburn won, or lost, it might be good information.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I just don't see Coach K straying much from his 7-man rotation from here on out.

Roach, Moore, Griffin, Banchero, Williams
Keels and John off the bench

He's only going to put someone in for a few minutes if there's foul trouble or an injury or he feels Paolo needs a breather or something like that. Now that I think about it, I wonder if Bates was only in there as a way to manage Paolo's sweating/dehydration issues.

[CDu]

Vs Ark, Baker isn't quite as detrimental, because they'll likely have a guy on the court that is barely an offensive threat. This means we can rest PB via small ball, and let Williams play C with the 4 rotation guards/wings.

All of Arkansas' top 6 are capable scoring threats. They shouldn't have a problem scoring against Baker if they so choose to exploit that matchup.

[duke79]

All of Arkansas' top 6 are capable scoring threats. They shouldn't have a problem scoring against Baker if they so choose to exploit that matchup.

Nothing personal against either Bates Jones or Joey Baker and I admire and respect their contributions to the program but my belief is that they are not quite "ready for primetime" players at this stage. I literally hold my breathe when Joey Baker comes into the game. Yea, sometimes he makes a good play or a 3-point shot but he also makes a lot of mistakes and susceptible to turnovers and broken plays. I realize Coach K can't play 5 or 6 guys for the entire game but bringing either one of them into the game definitely weakens Duke's lineup (IMHO).

[flyingdutchdevil]

Nothing personal against either Bates Jones or Joey Baker and I admire and respect their contributions to the program but my belief is that they are not quite "ready for primetime" players at this stage. I literally hold my breathe when Joey Baker comes into the game. Yea, sometimes he makes a good play or a 3-point shot but he also makes a lot of mistakes and susceptible to turnovers and broken plays. I realize Coach K can't play 5 or 6 guys for the entire game but bringing either one of them into the game definitely weakens Duke's lineup (IMHO).

Baker and Jones are 21 and 23, respectively. If they aren't ready for primetime now, they are never going to be ready for primetime for a competitive program like Duke. Sorry, but it needs to be said.

Baker has been essentially removed from the rotation. Bates's only role is spelling Banchero for a few minutes a game, if needed.

Don't get me wrong, I want them on the team. They are most likely good - if not very good - leaders and provide insurance. Better them then the walkons if we are in serious foul trouble.

[Kedsy]

Below is an advanced stats profile of Arkansas, which might tell us what to expect from an advanced stats standpoint. All of the below numbers are unadjusted for competition (except for oRating and dRating, for which I'm using Pomeroy's adjusted ratings).


OFFENSE

Pace: 72.0; Arkansas will be the 3rd-fastest team (#35 nationally) Duke has faced this season (after Gonzaga and South Carolina State). (Duke’s average pace is 68.1, #191).

oRating: 110.0; according to Pomeroy, Arkansas has the #53 offense in the country. (Duke's dRating is 95.8, the #47 defense in the country.)

eFG%: 48.6%; Arkansas doesn't shoot very well (#267). (Duke's opposing eFG% is 47.0%, the #56 opposing eFG%.)

3pt%: 30.4%; Arkansas is horrendous from three, the #325 3pt%. (Duke's opposing 3pt% is 31.9%, the #83 opposing 3pt%. Though in our last seven games, opponents have shot 40.0% from three, the #263 three-point defense)

2pt%: 50.2%; Arkansas is a so-so 2pt shooting team (#156); (Duke's opponents tend to shoot poorly from two, 46.7%, #53)

%threes: 34.3%; Arkansas doesn't shoot that many threes (#260). (Duke's average opponent takes 33.4% of their shots from three, the 51st-lowest.)

FT rate: 37.7%; Arkansas gets to the line a ton (#19). (Duke's opponents rarely get to the line, at just 18.6%, #2 in the country.)

OR%: 29.6%; Arkansas is middling at offensive rebounding (#133); (Duke is poor at defensive rebounding, with a DR% of 71.2%, #234.)

TO rate: 16.9%; Arkansas doesn't turn it over very much (#71); (Duke rarely forces turnovers (15.7%, #314).)

assist%: 52.9%; Arkansas assists a middling amount (#136); (Duke's opponents, on average, assist on a little bit more than half (51.2%, #186.)

steal%: 9.1%; Arkansas gets stolen from a middling amount (#147); (Duke is not so great at thievery, 9.3%, #181.)

block%: 8.6%; Arkansas gets blocked a middling amount (#157); (Duke blocks a lot, 13.5%, #24.) (NOTE: I believe these numbers are only for two-point shots.)


DEFENSE

dRating: 90.4; according to Pomeroy, Arkansas has the #11 defense in the country; (Duke's oRating is 120.9, the #2 offense in the country.)

eFG%: 47.2%; Arkansas opponents don't hit many shots (#64); (Duke's average eFG% of 55.9% is #13 in the nation.)

3pt%: 32.4%; Arkansas opponents shoot ok but not great on three-pointers (#120); (Duke generally makes a good percentage of three-pointers, 37.0%, #31.)

2pt%: 46.4%; Arkansas is very good at stopping twos (#45); (Duke is usually great from two, 56.2%, #8)

%threes: 39.3%; Arkansas opponents shoot a lot of threes (#236); (Duke usually doesn’t shoot many threes, 36.2%, #211.)

FT rate: 31.8%; Arkansas fouls a lot (#235); (Duke hardly gets to the line, 28.5%, #232.)

DR%: 74.9%; Arkansas cleans up on the defensive boards (#76); (Duke is usually pretty good on the offensive boards, 31.7%, #68.)

TO rate: 20.5%; Arkansas forces a lot of turnovers (#57); (for the season, Duke does not turn it over very much, 15.1%, #22 in the country)

assist%: 53.6%; Arkansas's opponents tend to share the ball (#247); (Duke assists a lot, 56.6%, #55.)

steal%: 10.5%; Arkansas is somewhat felonious (#94); (Duke gets stolen from a middling amount, 9.0%, #137.)

block%: 11.7%; Arkansas blocks a good number of shots (#57); (Duke gets blocked a middling amount, 8.1%, #110.) (NOTE: I believe these numbers are only for two-point shots.)


What to expect: Poor shooting for Arkansas; not a lot of Arkansas three-point attempts; hardly any Arkansas turnovers; a lot of Duke assists.

Irresistible force, meet immovable object: Arkansas' offensive success is almost entirely due to living at the line. Duke is the 2nd-best team in the country at avoiding opposing free throws. This will be Duke's 7th game this season against a team in the top 100 for free throw rate. Here's how we've done in the first six games (chronological order):

Ohio State (#84 in FT rate): 40.7% opposing free throw rate in our first true road game
first Wake game (#76 in FT rate): 37.0% opposing FT rate in our second true road game
second Wake game (#76 Ft rate): 15.4% opposing FT rate (at Cameron)
Pittsburgh (#5 FT rate): 10.5% opposing FT rate (road game)
Fullerton (#49 FT rate): 12.5% opposing FT rate (neutral; NCAAT)
Texas Tech (#49 FT rate): 13.6% opposing FT rate (neutral; NCAAT)

Duke has been called for more fouls in true road games than it has in home/neutral games. But the last four times we've faced a top team at getting to the line, we've kept them off it and won the game. If we want to win this one (and we do), keeping Arkansas off the line would be a good start.

Déjà vu all over again: For the second straight game, our great offense is facing a great defense. Arkansas' D is not nearly as good as Texas Tech's, but there will be several similar collisions:

Shooting: Arkansas opponents shoot poorly; Duke shoots well. Texas Tech was even better than Arkansas at this, and Duke shredded them, but that doesn't mean history will repeat. Arkansas forced Gonzaga (the 2nd-best two-point shooting team in the country with three-point shooting about equal to Duke's) into their second-worst shooting game of the season, more than 17 percentage points worse than their average eFG%. (And hopefully that history won't repeat, either.)

Three-attempts: Arkansas encourages their opponents to settle for threes; Duke tends to be selective in their three-point attempts. Texas Tech gave even more encouragement, and Duke resisted.

Defensive rebounding: Arkansas is very good at keeping opponents from rebounding their own misses; Duke is normally pretty good at offensive rebounding. Texas Tech as similarly good (a little worse) at defensive rebounding, and they controlled their defensive glass.

Turnovers: Arkansas is very good at forcing turnovers; Duke is usually pretty good at avoiding them. Texas Tech is even better than Arkansas at this, and after a very shaky first 7 possessions, Duke settled down and kept hold of the ball. That said, Arkansas forced 15 Gonzaga turnovers and the Zags are usually fairly close to Duke when it comes to avoiding miscues.


One More Thing: Arkansas plays fast. Back in November and December, Duke played well in fast games (including Gonzaga), but since the ACC season started, Duke has only played three fast (or at least fast-ish) games: 1st Miami game (bad); 2nd Wake game (good, then bad); 2nd UNC game (very bad). It's unclear how we'll fare if the pace heats up.


On paper, this matchup looks easier than Texas Tech. If Duke can keep Arkansas off the line and from going unnaturally crazy from three, and we can hold on to the ball on offense (and everything else goes the way you'd expect from the numbers), then it will probably go our way. That said, I'm sure Gonzaga fans thought the same thing coming into the Sweet 16.