2022 MBB Transfer Portal Thread

[dukelifer]

The starting line up above features 4 frosh. With a frosh coach.

I’m pretty sure Duke doesn’t want their spanking brand new coach to fail, and I think having 4 frosh starting is a solid way to accomplish that.

Duke needs experience next year. Transfers are a must.

Yep- the 4 Frosh will take the bulk of the year to figure it out- no matter their eventual talent.

[SkyBrickey]

If either Keels or Moore returns to start in the backcourt with Roach, then I really like our team with Blakes, Schutt and Baker? Competing for minutes off the bench.

If neither returns, then I think it’s imperative that we look to the portal for a starting-caliber SG with a higher floor than Baker or Schutt. Maybe Whitehead can log some minutes at the off guard spot but that might be asking a lot against pressure defenses.

No matter what, agree we need to get an experienced big man contributor like the Ivy kid.

[jimsumner]

I

No matter what, agree we need to get an experienced big man contributor like the Ivy kid.

I'd like to see Duke bring in a big man with a higher ceiling than Patrick Tape or Theo John.

[SkyBrickey]

I'd like to see Duke bring in a big man with a higher ceiling than Patrick Tape or Theo John.

I agree but it’s tough to get those guys, like maybe a Tshiebwe or Brady Manek, with Lively, Flip and Mitchell almost guaranteed to get big minutes. Doesn’t mean we don’t try.

I imagine the Ivy DPOY would probably have a ceiling similar to Theo.

If we bring someone in, my wish list is that they are a very strong defender and rebounder - Theo has been a valuable team member but we knew coming in that he wasn’t a great rebounder for his size.

[MarkD83]

I agree but it’s tough to get those guys, like maybe a Tshiebwe or Brady Manek, with Lively, Flip and Mitchell almost guaranteed to get big minutes. Doesn’t mean we don’t try.

I imagine the Ivy DPOY would probably have a ceiling similar to Theo.

If we bring someone in, my wish list is that they are a very strong defender and rebounder - Theo has been a valuable team member but we knew coming in that he wasn’t a great rebounder for his size.

No matter who you bring in as a transfer or freshman you may not know what you are going to get until they show up.

Tshiebwe averaged 9 rpg / 11 ppg 2 years ago and 8 rpg / 9 ppg...This year he is averaging 15 rpg / 16 ppg. I am not sure you could project this year's production from his previous years.

Manek averaged 6 rpg / 12 ppg in 4 years at Okla with a 37.4% 3pt avg. You could predict his current 6 rpg / 14 ppg and 38.6%.

Closer to home Jordan G is averaging 10.6 ppg / 3.6 apg / 2.6 rpg...This is great for him but if we knew he would do this at Duke there would have been a big push to keep him.

[CDu]

And the first name that appears tied to Duke is former Ivy League big man Jaylan Gainey, a 6'9" C from Brown that has been 2-time Ivy League DPOY. He is long and bouncey with a body like Oscar Tshiebwe. I'm not saying he's the second coming of Big O, just making a physical comparison. Anyway, he seems like an ideal fit alongside the freshmen frontcourt next season.

Minor quibble, but against is listed at 6’9”, 220lb. Tshiebwe is 6’9”, 255lb. So I am not sure that this physical comp holds up. Which probably at least partly explains why his rebound rate is about 40% lower than Tshiebwe’s but his block rate is about double.

[CDu]

No matter who you bring in as a transfer or freshman you may not know what you are going to get until they show up.

Tshiebwe averaged 9 rpg / 11 ppg 2 years ago and 8 rpg / 9 ppg...This year he is averaging 15 rpg / 16 ppg. I am not sure you could project this year's production from his previous years.

Manek averaged 6 rpg / 12 ppg in 4 years at Okla with a 37.4% 3pt avg. You could predict his current 6 rpg / 14 ppg and 38.6%.

Closer to home Jordan G is averaging 10.6 ppg / 3.6 apg / 2.6 rpg...This is great for him but if we knew he would do this at Duke there would have been a big push to keep him.

Tshiebwe’s numbers kind of were predictable… at least on a per-possession level. He left WVU, which had another star big guy eating up his rebound and scoring chances, and came to UK where he has no competition in the post. So his defensive rebound rate has increased drastically, but his offensive rebound rate is right in line with previous years. He is also shooting a bit more and a bit better, likely due to better spacing (no behemoth standing next to him clogging the lane) and opportunity (no stud big man eating up the post touches). The biggest surprise is really just that his foul rate has decreased substantially, which has let him stay on the floor longer and increase his per-game stats.

[MarkD83]

Tshiebwe’s numbers kind of were predictable… at least on a per-possession level. He left WVU, which had another star big guy eating up his rebound and scoring chances, and came to UK where he has no competition in the post. So his defensive rebound rate has increased drastically, but his offensive rebound rate is right in line with previous years. He is also shooting a bit more and a bit better, likely due to better spacing (no behemoth standing next to him clogging the lane) and opportunity (no stud big man eating up the post touches). The biggest surprise is really just that his foul rate has decreased substantially, which has let him stay on the floor longer and increase his per-game stats.

This does bring up a point about filling in a roster with transfers. Tshiebwe's transfer was to a place where he would have less competition at his position or at least away from a place where there was competition. Jordan's transfer and Coleman's much the same.

So, would the transfers in be looking for a "large hole" in a roster rather than a spot where there is potential competition? If so there is a large risk having a hole in a roster and waiting for a big time transfer to fill it.

[CDu]

This does bring up a point about filling in a roster with transfers. Tshiebwe's transfer was to a place where he would have less competition at his position or at least away from a place where there was competition. Jordan's transfer and Coleman's much the same.

So, would the transfers in be looking for a "large hole" in a roster rather than a spot where there is potential competition? If so there is a large risk having a hole in a roster and waiting for a big time transfer to fill it.

Tshiebwe’s competition at UK left for the NBA last summer, so his transfer wasn’t to get away from competition. He would have been the only big of note at WVU this year.

As for the risk of waiting for a transfer, I don’t think it is really an issue. For one thing, there will be TONS of transfers in the portal, and they will be transferring for a variety of reasons (competition/opportunity, chance to play for a big-time program, location, leaving a bad fit chemistry wise, their coach got fired, etc.). For another, the portal market will open largely after the rest of the recruiting market (and early-entry decisions) are made. So we wouldn’t be “waiting” for the transfer market. We would be using the transfer market to fill the holes that our high school recruiting and returning players didn’t fill.

Duke hasn’t been getting big-time transfers recently, but I suspect that this is more a function of a lack of interest/effort. I don’t think Coach K, at the end of his career, was all that interested in changing his recruiting strategy yet again. If we want to recruit top-tier transfers, I suspect we would have no problem doing so.

[MarkD83]

Tshiebwe’s competition at UK left for the NBA last summer, so his transfer wasn’t to get away from competition. He would have been the only big of note at WVU this year.

As for the risk of waiting for a transfer, I don’t think it is really an issue. For one thing, there will be TONS of transfers in the portal, and they will be transferring for a variety of reasons (competition/opportunity, chance to play for a big-time program, location, leaving a bad fit chemistry wise, their coach got fired, etc.). For another, the portal market will open largely after the rest of the recruiting market (and early-entry decisions) are made. So we wouldn’t be “waiting” for the transfer market. We would be using the transfer market to fill the holes that our high school recruiting and returning players didn’t fill.

Duke hasn’t been getting big-time transfers recently, but I suspect that this is more a function of a lack of interest/effort. I don’t think Coach K, at the end of his career, was all that interested in changing his recruiting strategy yet again. If we want to recruit top-tier transfers, I suspect we would have no problem doing so.

I agree with you on Duke needing to be more interested.

I would contend that at a place like Duke, Jon is trying to fill the roster with top recruits and keeping players first. Then the interest in transfers occurs if he perceives a hole exists.

In 2021-22, I don't think Coach K perceived a huge hole existed. We have had numerous preseason roster analyses on this board that tells me even "we" did not perceive a huge hole in the roster existed. And lest we forget they are 28-6, ACC regular season champions and a 2 seed (sorry to beat this to death). With a nod to the article on the front page, Coach K is not complaining to the selection committee that Duke was left out of the tournament or was under-seeded. So even if we perceive a hole exists now it is related to in-game defensive intensity or valuing the ball on offense rather than adding a player at a specific roster spot.

One of the premises of this thread was that some coaches have given up on getting the top HS recruits because they can not get them so they almost exclusively look to the transfer portal. I don't think this would apply to Duke in the near future.

But back to where we agree. I really want Jon to use all 13 scholarships including getting transfers so that Duke has an 8-10 man rotation and has 2 PGs, 2 SGs, 2 SFs, 2 PFs, 2 C, all of whom can and will play unless they are hurt.

[budwom]

Without a couple of quick, experienced guards, I some serious issues next year.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Without a couple of quick, experienced guards, I some serious issues next year.

I hope you get help

Jokes aside, yeah. We need at least two experienced guards, preferably one that is a really good shooter. We have one experienced guard in Roach (assuming he comes back). Now we need another.

[CDu]

I agree with you on Duke needing to be more interested.

I would contend that at a place like Duke, Jon is trying to fill the roster with top recruits and keeping players first. Then the interest in transfers occurs if he perceives a hole exists.

One of the premises of this thread was that some coaches have given up on getting the top HS recruits because they can not get them so they almost exclusively look to the transfer portal. I don't think this would apply to Duke in the near future.

But I don’t think anyone has suggested that Duke eschew HS recruiting in favor of the transfer market, so this feels like a red herring.

The points folks have made are that (1) we should start being more aggressive on the transfer market than we have been, because (2) there is PLENTY of opportunity on tge transfer market to address the team’s needs in any given year.

The only reason that examples were presented of coaches going exclusively to the transfer market was to illustrate point #2 by proving extreme examples.

A team can quite feasibly build its starting lineup basically entirely through the transfer market. We don’t need to do that so long as we continue to land top recruits. But the possibility of doing that illustrates that there are plenty of options to address whatever remaining gaps we have each year using the transfer market. We wouldn’t have any trouble filling those gaps, so long as we are a bit more active in the market.

[mattyoung18]

I'd like to see Duke bring in a big man with a higher ceiling than Patrick Tape or Theo John.

I'd like to see the next Christian Laettner to find his way to Durham!I aim high!

[brevity]

I'd like to see the next Christian Laettner to find his way to Durham!I aim high!

I read this as “I am high”, and frankly, that made more sense.

[MarkD83]

But I don’t think anyone has suggested that Duke eschew HS recruiting in favor of the transfer market, so this feels like a red herring.

The points folks have made are that (1) we should start being more aggressive on the transfer market than we have been, because (2) there is PLENTY of opportunity on tge transfer market to address the team’s needs in any given year.

The only reason that examples were presented of coaches going exclusively to the transfer market was to illustrate point #2 by proving extreme examples.

A team can quite feasibly build its starting lineup basically entirely through the transfer market. We don’t need to do that so long as we continue to land top recruits. But the possibility of doing that illustrates that there are plenty of options to address whatever remaining gaps we have each year using the transfer market. We wouldn’t have any trouble filling those gaps, so long as we are a bit more active in the market.

The red herring is something that was unintentional but you clarified that...

So the staff looks at the roster and fills it as best as possible and that includes being aggressive in the transfer portal.

Now the unknown caveats to me if I were Jon...If I have a full roster as I perceive the full roster I need...why go after transfers. I have said before I am a tactician and we have talked strategy so warning the next statements become roster discussion for 2022-23.

Back court: Roach, Keels, Blakes, Schutt, Baker Front court: Lively, Filipowski, Mitchell, Whitehead, Reeves (red shirt but helps in practice).

(I kept Keels in the mix just to make things a little less obvious).

3 scholarships to work with...who are we looking for and more importantly does Jon think we need anyone else.

And now the real question with only 2 upper classmen...I don't care how talented we think the freshman are if someone like Tshwiebe were to express interest in Duke do you take him just because we need players with experience.

[jv001]

The red herring is something that was unintentional but you clarified that...

So the staff looks at the roster and fills it as best as possible and that includes being aggressive in the transfer portal.

Now the unknown caveats to me if I were Jon...If I have a full roster as I perceive the full roster I need...why go after transfers. I have said before I am a tactician and we have talked strategy so warning the next statements become roster discussion for 2022-23.

Back court: Roach, Keels, Blakes, Schutt, Baker Front court: Lively, Filipowski, Mitchell, Whitehead, Reeves (red shirt but helps in practice).

(I kept Keels in the mix just to make things a little less obvious).

3 scholarships to work with...who are we looking for and more importantly does Jon think we need anyone else.

And now the real question with only 2 upper classmen...I don't care how talented we think the freshman are if someone like Tshwiebe were to express interest in Duke do you take him just because we need players with experience.

I see six players that will get most of the minutes with that group. Back court: Roach and Keels. Front court: Lively, Flip, Mitchell and Whitehead. Would a big man want to take a chance on transferring? Although Whitehead will probably play the wing and Flip can play the SF spot as well, but if history repeats it's self, Trevor is gone. When DJ left last season, that pretty much sold me on players leaving if they even smell a hint they will be drafted. But that's another subject.

GoDuke

[SkyBrickey]

The red herring is something that was unintentional but you clarified that...

So the staff looks at the roster and fills it as best as possible and that includes being aggressive in the transfer portal.

Now the unknown caveats to me if I were Jon...If I have a full roster as I perceive the full roster I need...why go after transfers. I have said before I am a tactician and we have talked strategy so warning the next statements become roster discussion for 2022-23.

Back court: Roach, Keels, Blakes, Schutt, Baker Front court: Lively, Filipowski, Mitchell, Whitehead, Reeves (red shirt but helps in practice).

(I kept Keels in the mix just to make things a little less obvious).

3 scholarships to work with...who are we looking for and more importantly does Jon think we need anyone else.

And now the real question with only 2 upper classmen...I don't care how talented we think the freshman are if someone like Tshwiebe were to express interest in Duke do you take him just because we need players with experience.

If Keels or Moore comes back, I think the most pressing need is to get an experienced backup big who can defend and rebound in the ACC in case our freshman bigs need time to adjust or have an injury.

If neither Keels nor Moore come back, then the most pressing need becomes a starter in the backcourt. Baker or Blakes or Schutt could start but it would be nice to have a proven transfer with a higher floor than these three.

[Rich]

The red herring is something that was unintentional but you clarified that...

So the staff looks at the roster and fills it as best as possible and that includes being aggressive in the transfer portal.

Now the unknown caveats to me if I were Jon...If I have a full roster as I perceive the full roster I need...why go after transfers. I have said before I am a tactician and we have talked strategy so warning the next statements become roster discussion for 2022-23.

Back court: Roach, Keels, Blakes, Schutt, Baker Front court: Lively, Filipowski, Mitchell, Whitehead, Reeves (red shirt but helps in practice).

(I kept Keels in the mix just to make things a little less obvious).

3 scholarships to work with...who are we looking for and more importantly does Jon think we need anyone else.

And now the real question with only 2 upper classmen...I don't care how talented we think the freshman are if someone like Tshwiebe were to express interest in Duke do you take him just because we need players with experience.

I think the answer is that we lay off completely filling our roster with inexperienced but talented freshmen and hold some spots for the portal, hoping to get more experienced talent that way. I fully expect there's going to be some trial and error and it will take some years to find the right balance.

[CDu]

Back court: Roach, Keels, Blakes, Schutt, Baker Front court: Lively, Filipowski, Mitchell, Whitehead, Reeves (red shirt but helps in practice).

3 scholarships to work with...who are we looking for and more importantly does Jon think we need anyone else.

In that scenario, we need another Theo John. That's probably it.

And now the real question with only 2 upper classmen...I don't care how talented we think the freshman are if someone like Tshwiebe were to express interest in Duke do you take him just because we need players with experience.

If someone as good as Tshiebwe were to express interest (and obviously it can't/won't be him, but if someone like him is available), you take him and figure it out later.

As for our particular team. If/when Moore and Keels (and maybe Baker) leave, then we need at least another John, a starting guard (preferably one who can play like a PG), and another veteran wing.

To be clear, I doubt we ever get to the point where we are using all 13 scholarships. And I don't think we need to do that. But we need to be at at least 10 or 11 every year. And ideally there are several veterans among those 10-11. Whether that is through guys returning or the transfer portal, it's not great to have more than 4-5 freshmen on the roster at a time, and ideally you aren't relying on all 4-5 as major contributors.

As this formula relates to next season, ideally we are only relying on Whitehead, Lively, and Flip as key contributors, with Mitchell playing a smaller role and Schutt being a developmental guy like Blakes was this year. So if only Roach and Blakes return, then it carries forward that we are short 1-2 perimeter guys (depending upon how the team feels about Blakes) and a big to complete our 7-man rotation, with Mitchell serving as the 8th and Reaves and Schutt as developmental guys.