2022 MBB Transfer Portal Thread

[proelitedota]

I consider this a non update...

https://twitter.com/EliotClough/stat...92185185001474

And we still have ISU flairs on Reddit saying that AJ Green is lock to them because his dad is there.

[Rich]

Yeah, it's quite probable that Green is the better shooter next year. But it's not out of the question that Keels' shot improves a ton. I'll hold off on the analysis until/unless Keels returns, but it's not at all uncommon for Duke guards who return as sophomores to experience a big jump in 3pt shooting. The most obvious comp would be Luke Kennard: like Keels, Kennard was a noted 3pt shooter in high school who struggled with his 3pt shot as a freshman. Kennard hit just 32.0% (Keels shot 31.8%) as a freshman. Kennard had a monster sophomore season, shooting 43.8% from 3 and hitting 2.4 per game. Now, I wouldn't expect Keels to make THAT big a leap if he returns. But I'd expect a substantial improvement from 3 based on the average frosh-to-soph bump we've seen of Duke guards.

That being said, I would still expect Green to be the better shooter. But if Keels can close the shooting gap, he probably brings a lot more to the table defensively and as a playmaker than Green does. He showed the ability to get to the rim last year, and that was with a much more crowded set of playmakers around him. So I'd expect that role to expand if he came back.

In other words, I'll be thrilled if either Keels or Green is here next year.

There's also the positive chemistry that exists between Keels and Roach. That's an important and immeasurable intangible.

[CDu]

There's also the positive chemistry that exists between Keels and Roach. That's an important and immeasurable intangible.

Ideally yes, although anecdotally the two didn't seem to play well in the same game very often. So while they are apparently tight, I'm not sure how much it translates to on-court benefit.

[Rich]

Ideally yes, although anecdotally the two didn't seem to play well in the same game very often. So while they are apparently tight, I'm not sure how much it translates to on-court benefit.

Maybe it doesn't correlate directly into numbers, but it diminishes the chance of off the court distractions or animosity. AJ Green is probably a good guy, but you can never anticipate those sorts of things.

[jimsumner]

Maybe it doesn't correlate directly into numbers, but it diminishes the chance of off the court distractions or animosity. AJ Green is probably a good guy, but you can never anticipate those sorts of things.

I think it's safe to say that Roach and Keels are genuinely good friends. They've played together a long time.

[bshrader]

FWIW, a 2nd crystal ball pick for AJ Green has come in for Duke.

[heyman25]

In 10 or 11 days Duke should find out who will join the roster.Just hope Duke gets a good shooting guard with the ability to play point guard. Blakes can defend but not sure if he is a playmaker. He did not get enough minutes.

[gofurman]

quite simpliy we are top 20/25 without a SG addition (I don't think Blakes or Schutt are ready to contribute much - hope am wrong). To be a contender at all we need Keels or AJ Green. Personally I think Keels is the better of the two - actual Duke experience, playing on the big stage and better D ! we need D

[JasonEvans]

quite simpliy we are top 20/25 without a SG addition (I don't think Blakes or Schutt are ready to contribute much - hope am wrong). To be a contender at all we need Keels or AJ Green. Personally I think Keels is the better of the two - actual Duke experience, playing on the big stage and better D ! we need D

The guys with the CBS Eye on College Basketball Podcast said that if we get Green, we are certainly top 5 in the land... and they think we are getting Green.

[UrinalCake]

The guys with the CBS Eye on College Basketball Podcast said that if we get Green, we are certainly top 5 in the land... and they think we are getting Green.

Love the optimism but I don't see it - too many question marks and too much inexperience especially on the defensive end. We might get there, but my expectations would be tempered heading into the season even if we are fortunate enough to add Green. It would be a fun lineup for sure though. And I would really look forward to getting Catchings involved in some "Kale-Green" two man game.

[heyman25]

New entrant from Baylor,Matthew Mayer in Transfer Pool. Hope he stays away from UNC.https://www.zagsblog.com/2022/05/21/...will-transfer/

[JasonEvans]

New entrant from Baylor,Matthew Mayer in Transfer Pool. Hope he stays away from UNC.https://www.zagsblog.com/2022/05/21/...will-transfer/

Well, not exactly new. He entered the portal a while ago but has now made it clear that he will not be staying in the NBA draft. I really worry about Meyer and UNC. He would fit really nicely into the hole that Manek leaves behind. Mayer has big game experience and is the kind of guy who does a lot of little things to make you better. He's not a star, but I know UNC is eager to sign him up.

[TKG]

In 10 or 11 days Duke should find out who will join the roster.Just hope Duke gets a good shooting guard with the ability to play point guard. Blakes can defend but not sure if he is a playmaker. He did not get enough minutes.

I think we are going to need as much help as possible on the defensive end and Blakes ability to play D could be his key to minutes (assuming he is not a liability at the point).

[CDu]

Well, not exactly new. He entered the portal a while ago but has now made it clear that he will not be staying in the NBA draft. I really worry about Meyer and UNC. He would fit really nicely into the hole that Manek leaves behind. Mayer has big game experience and is the kind of guy who does a lot of little things to make you better. He's not a star, but I know UNC is eager to sign him up.

Yep, it would be a great fit. He's not as good a shooter as Manek, but he's still a good shooter and better than Manek at basically everything else. Hopefully he doesn't choose to go there.

[scottdude8]

Love the optimism but I don't see it - too many question marks and too much inexperience especially on the defensive end. We might get there, but my expectations would be tempered heading into the season even if we are fortunate enough to add Green. It would be a fun lineup for sure though. And I would really look forward to getting Catchings involved in some "Kale-Green" two man game.

The thing, though, is that every team, even those with high aspirations like us, has question marks entering the season. It's the nature of college basketball in the era of high turnover.

Just going down ESPN's most recent Way Too Early Rankings:
- Is UNC the team we saw struggle in the regular season or the team that made the NC game? Also, how pivotal was Manek?
- Is Houston a legitimate contender, or just another really good mid-major team? Also, can the Cougars score consistently, which has always been a struggle to pair with their fantastic defense?
- Is Kentucky really going to be better than last year's squad with three new starters? And will Oscar be as impactful when teams have a full offseason to prepare for him as the focal point of the team?
- Can UCLA recover from losing Juzang? How do they incorporate 5* freshman, which hasn't been a part of Mick Cronin's system?
- Does Scheierman translate to a primary scorer at this level? Is there enough to make the leap from a second round team to a Final Four team?

All of this is to say that question marks are the norm, not the exception. Our will likely be youth and defense. But that's been the norm of late, right?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Love the optimism but I don't see it - too many question marks and too much inexperience especially on the defensive end. We might get there, but my expectations would be tempered heading into the season even if we are fortunate enough to add Green. It would be a fun lineup for sure though. And I would really look forward to getting Catchings involved in some "Kale-Green" two man game.

If we get Green (and Keels bolts for the NBA), I'm 98.2% confident our line-up is Roach/Green/Whitehead/Flip/Lively. That 1.8% is in the case Mitchell is really good and supplants Flip as the starting 4. Doubt it, but a slim possibility.

That starting line-up looks to be amazing offensively. And if Coach K is providing some guidance (which I think all of us believe he will), that offense is top #5 and likely top #3.

Defense? Roach is good but not great. Green looks to be 'meh' at best, Griffin as the likely comp, and Kennard/Steward at worst. Basically, a lot of variation. Whitehead is a versatile Swiss Army Knife on D. The only issue I could see is foul trouble (he's a frosh, after all). Flip is tough to predict, and I don't think anyone knows. Scouts don't focus on his D. He has great offensive footwork, but does that translate to defensive positioning? No idea. And with Lively, we have one of the most versatile defensive bigmen in the country. He's elite at the rim and elite on the perimeter. Scouts talk about his D first and O second. He's that exciting on D.

So, for D, we have 2 likely very good-to-elite defenders (Whitehead/Lively), 1 good-to-very good defender (Roach), 1 very bad-to-okay defender (Green), and 1 unknown but certainly not elite defender (Flip).

If Roach is very good and Flip can hold his own, I think we end up as a top 25 defensive team. If not, we're looking 50+. Lots and lots of variability on the defensive end.

[chrishoke]

If we get Green (and Keels bolts for the NBA), I'm 98.2% confident our line-up is Roach/Green/Whitehead/Flip/Lively. That 1.8% is in the case Mitchell is really good and supplants Flip as the starting 4. Doubt it, but a slim possibility.

That starting line-up looks to be amazing offensively. And if Coach K is providing some guidance (which I think all of us believe he will), that offense is top #5 and likely top #3.

Defense? Roach is good but not great. Green looks to be 'meh' at best, Griffin as the likely comp, and Kennard/Steward at worst. Basically, a lot of variation. Whitehead is a versatile Swiss Army Knife on D. The only issue I could see is foul trouble (he's a frosh, after all). Flip is tough to predict, and I don't think anyone knows. Scouts don't focus on his D. He has great offensive footwork, but does that translate to defensive positioning? No idea. And with Lively, we have one of the most versatile defensive bigmen in the country. He's elite at the rim and elite on the perimeter. Scouts talk about his D first and O second. He's that exciting on D.

So, for D, we have 2 likely very good-to-elite defenders (Whitehead/Lively), 1 good-to-very good defender (Roach), 1 very bad-to-okay defender (Green), and 1 unknown but certainly not elite defender (Flip).

If Roach is very good and Flip can hold his own, I think we end up as a top 25 defensive team. If not, we're looking 50+. Lots and lots of variability on the defensive end.

Good analysis, but don't forget Mitchell. He may not start but he will play plenty and help w/ various matchups that are problems.

[scottdude8]

Good analysis, but don't forget Mitchell. He may not start but he will play plenty and help w/ various matchups that are problems.

Mitchell is exciting as he provides a ton of versatility. Supposedly he can play both the 3 and the 4, so he can potentially play at the 3 and shift Dariq to the 2, and play the 4 with either Kyle or Lively at the 5. If he lives up to his 5* potential, it wouldn't shock me if he's playing starter's level minutes given that versatility... and as you mention, a lineup where he replaces Green could be a major improvement defensively (as could, in the right matchups, him at the 4 against a smaller team).

We keep forgetting that Mitchell is ranked higher around where Trevor was last year in the recruiting rankings (and ranked significantly higher by some sources). We were psyched about Trevor entering the year as our projected 6th man (before AJ's injury) last year, yet Mitchell is flying under the radar. He gives us a ton of versatility and talent off the bench, and is arguably a better fit as a true 6th man than either Trevor or AJ last year given the versatility.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Good analysis, but don't forget Mitchell. He may not start but he will play plenty and help w/ various matchups that are problems.

Here is Mitchell's scouting report from 247, June 2021:

Has a quality physical build for a combo forward. Has long arms, plays with a motor, and is a terrific two foot jumper. Has functional athleticism. Explosive in a crowd. Does most of his damage around the basket as a slasher, post up player and rebounder. Can stretch the defense with three-point range but isn't a strength. Can switch direction on the drive and can attack and finish with either hand as a natural lefty. Solid and versatile defender. Tough on the boards. Not known as a playmaker for others but does have a feel for the game. Fits the mold of the athletic and versatile combo forward.

"Solid and versatile defender" means he could be good or he could be like Griffin (who was written up in a very similar fashion). I'm not sure if he will be a difference maker on D, but I'd like to think that, between either Flip or Mitchell, there is at least one "average or better" defender between the two of them.

[SkyBrickey]

If we get Green (and Keels bolts for the NBA), I'm 98.2% confident our line-up is Roach/Green/Whitehead/Flip/Lively. That 1.8% is in the case Mitchell is really good and supplants Flip as the starting 4. Doubt it, but a slim possibility.

That starting line-up looks to be amazing offensively. And if Coach K is providing some guidance (which I think all of us believe he will), that offense is top #5 and likely top #3.

Defense? Roach is good but not great. Green looks to be 'meh' at best, Griffin as the likely comp, and Kennard/Steward at worst. Basically, a lot of variation. Whitehead is a versatile Swiss Army Knife on D. The only issue I could see is foul trouble (he's a frosh, after all). Flip is tough to predict, and I don't think anyone knows. Scouts don't focus on his D. He has great offensive footwork, but does that translate to defensive positioning? No idea. And with Lively, we have one of the most versatile defensive bigmen in the country. He's elite at the rim and elite on the perimeter. Scouts talk about his D first and O second. He's that exciting on D.

So, for D, we have 2 likely very good-to-elite defenders (Whitehead/Lively), 1 good-to-very good defender (Roach), 1 very bad-to-okay defender (Green), and 1 unknown but certainly not elite defender (Flip).

If Roach is very good and Flip can hold his own, I think we end up as a top 25 defensive team. If not, we're looking 50+. Lots and lots of variability on the defensive end.

In 2015 a very young and offensively talented team was able to coalesce and turn up the defensive intensity enough by tournament time to win a championship.

In 2022 a very young and offensively talented team was not able to turn up the defensive intensity enough late season to win a championship.

What was the difference in those teams and their paths to a championship? Can Whitehead and/or Mitchell be a defensive difference maker like Winslow was on that 2015 team?