2022 MBB Transfer Portal Thread

[HayYou]

It could be, but it's not.

If Roach played out of his skull this weekend, he COULD go pro. But he'd have to shoot out of his mind. 4-5 made threes on 10-11 shots attempted.
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As his height, no matter how well the good parts of his game progress, he's got to shoot better from 3. A higher percentage on more attempts.
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I think he needs a season of better shooting next year to solidify a mid to late first round.
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But if he plays great and we win the title, he might role the dice. There are some playoff teams that might be thrilled to shore up PG depth on a cheap Rookie deal.

[jv001]

If Roach played out of his skull this weekend, he COULD go pro. But he'd have to shoot out of his mind. 4-5 made threes on 10-11 shots attempted.
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As his height, no matter how well the good parts of his game progress, he's got to shoot better from 3. A higher percentage on more attempts.
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I think he needs a season of better shooting next year to solidify a mid to late first round.
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But if he plays great and we win the title, he might role the dice. There are some playoff teams that might be thrilled to shore up PG depth on a cheap Rookie deal.

Good points but I don't see Jeremy missing the chance to be the point guard on the team Jon is bringing next season. He could be the piece of the puzzle that makes next season a great one for the rookie head coach. Now if he was guaranteed a first round pick, then he might leave, but that isn't happening.

GoDuke!

[SkyBrickey]

I think those minutes projections - especially in what is considered a watered-down senior class - might be a bit optimistic. At least with regards to fielding a title contender. I would venture that Lively and Flip both would be better served in the 25-28 mpg range (I mean, we aren’t even playing sophomore DPoY Williams more than that), and Mitchell probably in the 18-20 mpg range.

But more importantly, I think going into a season with just a bunch of 18/19 year olds with no college experience as your frontcourt is a recipe for getting pushed around. Having a grown man big man in the rotation and in practice will be a huge boost.

Borden is extremely unlikely to play minutes next year. Reeves (the other incoming kid) is most likely going to redshirt). Neither are remotely likely to provide the experience and physicality in practice or as a reserve in the rotation next year that I think the young frontcourt guys need to prepare for battles against older, stronger opponents.

I agree with all these points. We need another Theo, maybe the kid from Brown, to log some minutes and toughen up the youngsters in practice. It had to have helped Mark to have Theo pushing him around in practice….

[SkyBrickey]

Good points but I don't see Jeremy missing the chance to be the point guard on the team Jon is bringing next season. He could be the piece of the puzzle that makes next season a great one for the rookie head coach. Now if he was guaranteed a first round pick, then he might leave, but that isn't happening.

GoDuke!

I’m counting on this. And I’m still holding out hope that either Trevor or Wendell might come back for one more run. I think another year could be the difference for Trevor between second and first round if he proves he can knock down 3s at a higher clip.

[HayYou]

Good points but I don't see Jeremy missing the chance to be the point guard on the team Jon is bringing next season. He could be the piece of the puzzle that makes next season a great one for the rookie head coach. Now if he was guaranteed a first round pick, then he might leave, but that isn't happening.

GoDuke!

The thing is, what is Roach's ceiling in the draft? If he turns into a Steph caliber 3pt shooter, he might go close to the lottery. But I doubt he gets there. I really think the 20s are his absolute ceiling. He won't go higher than that. That is just his limit wrt size, athleticism, skill. So if he really thinks he's late first round (again, all this assumes he plays great and we win the chip), he'll at least announce and go through the process. Late first round wouldn't be out of the question, and he isn't likely to really improve that by returning.
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I don't think ALL of that is particularly likely.
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And it doesn't matter. Caleb Foster would be here by July if Roach goes pro.
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Our real need in the portal is a SG/SF, and I feel like a guy who fits Duke's need might not be available until Duke needs him.

[proelitedota]

Are we sure PB is gone? NIL money might have him conflicted, especially if we don't take care of business this Saturday.

[CDu]

Are we sure PB is gone? NIL money might have him conflicted, especially if we don't take care of business this Saturday.

Yes, we're sure he's gone. Obviously it isn't 100% until he says it. But it's like 99.99999999999999%. He's going to be a top 3 pick. He's gotten to the Final Four and gotten to cut down the nets. He's going pro.

[pfrduke]

Are we sure PB is gone? NIL money might have him conflicted, especially if we don't take care of business this Saturday.

Yes. Fifty times yes. NIL money isn't second contract NBA money.

[CDu]

Reeves has played well at Oak Hill this year. Not a superstar, but he's rising. Regardless of how much he could contribute next year, and I happen to think he'd be fine off the bench in a limited role. I mean, our primary backup C will be Filipowski. Add in the potential of Reeves, and I just feel like a potential big man would be scared off of Duke as a destination. I think it would be a poor man's Theo John at this point. No one who can play a solid role at Duke would be interested in the uncertainty wrt PT. Given our two Frosh Cs, and two more off the bench if one doesn't RS, that is 4 potential bodies. Additionally, I think we'll need Reeves to play a lot, and play well on D and rebounding, in 2 years. I feel like he improves far more, even in limited minutes, in GAMES than purely at practice.
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At PF we have Flip, Mitchell, and even Whitehead in a pinch (he'd be fine as a college PF in spot duty).
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Our real need is at the wing. I'm hoping a good defender who is at the least not a horrible perimeter shooter will be interested. Duke would offer a solid role off the bench, we wouldn't require him to be a star, and there is the notoriety of playing on a loaded team that will be the most scrutinized team in the nation. A good chance to play deep in March, at a basketball power, without being asked to do too much. It would be a great resume padder for someone looking for a career in hoops.

I don't think we'll get a star player. I think we'll get someone in the Theo John mold, though perhaps with PF/C versatility rather than a straight C like John. And I think we need that type of player, as frontcourt is a tough ask for freshmen against grown men. Moreso than guard.

And again, I think the biggest value said player will have is in practice, adding a degree of physicality from experience that Reeves and Borden (both of whom are skinny, and Borden simply not nearly good enough) simply can't provide.

Can we get by without it? Maybe. And obviously getting another starting caliber wing is more critical. But I think getting a guy like that is going to be pretty important for our team's development. We've never rolled into a season with zero experience in our frontcourt, and I can't imagine that Scheyer wants to begin his career on that foot (especially as next season will be like this year with lots of very old teams).

[907bluedevils]

Yes. Fifty times yes. NIL money isn't second contract NBA money.

NIL isn't even close for most first round picks, then take into account the 2nd contract.

[tking]

Weird thread. Reeves in the '22-'23 rotation + Roach a 2022 draft candidate + Banchero coming back (???). I get we're all excited (or deathly nervous) for Saturday, but still...

[proelitedota]

Yes. Fifty times yes. NIL money isn't second contract NBA money.

Do you think Zion would have stayed for his sophomore year for a 5-10 million NIL deal. Because of how close he was to coming back, I reckon a big NIL deal would have sealed the deal.

PB might be able to get 2-3 million. That's not top 3 pick salary but imo that makes the decision a bit harder than in the past.

[CDu]

Do you think Zion would have stayed for his sophomore year for a 5-10 million NIL deal.

PB might be able to get 2-3 million. That's not top 3 pick salary but imo that makes the decision a bit harder than in the past.

No, I would suspect Zion would have made the same decision had NIL been around. I don't think the decision to go pro is primarily about the money. At least not in the short-term (the big money comes a few years down the road).

[proelitedota]

No, I would suspect Zion would have made the same decision had NIL been around. I don't think the decision to go pro is primarily about the money. At least not in the short-term (the big money comes a few years down the road).

Fair enough, but it's clear we're just seeing the beginning of the NIL numbers

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sat...ans-react/amp/

It's not out of the imagination to see a top pick in the future being able to cash out on more immediate money by staying.

At some point, the money will have diminishing returns, and the prospect of enjoying college and playing for a title becomes more valuable.

If you polled current NBA players if they're willing to pay money to play for their college team again, I feel like there would be some interest.

The decision to stay or go is definitely not as one sided as before.

[CDu]

Fair enough, but it's clear we're just seeing the beginning of the NIL numbers

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sat...ans-react/amp/

It's not out of the imagination to see a top pick in the future being able to cash out on more immediate money by staying.

At some point, the money will have diminishing returns, and the prospect of enjoying college and playing for a title becomes more valuable.

If you polled current NBA players if they're willing to pay money to play for their college team again, I feel like there would be some interest.

The decision to stay or go is definitely not as one sided as before.

I mean, sure. We have seen lottery picks return even before NIL. So I am sure we will see some again. I just wouldn’t anticipate it to be a top-3 pick anytime soon.

More to the point, we have recruited our 2022 class with the clear indication that Banchero is leaving (we have added 3 top-20 frontcourt players plus a 4th big who will redshirt). None of that suggests the team has any plans for Banchero to return.

[Kedsy]

Late first round wouldn't be out of the question

No, it is out of the question. Jeremy Roach will not be drafted in the first round this year, I don't care if he shoots 10 for 10 from three in the championship game (well, I do care, but for different reasons). He's unlikely to be drafted in the first round, ever. At his size, his ceiling is probably Carlik Jones, who was first team All ACC last year and then went undrafted. If Jeremy shows real PG skills next season (or the season after, or the season after that) and also improves his shooting immensely, he could work his way into the 2nd round.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Are we sure PB is gone? NIL money might have him conflicted, especially if we don't take care of business this Saturday.

He needs another year at Duke to cut down on turnovers and improve his draft stock. And Jon Scheyer's gonna tell him so!

[HayYou]

Weird thread. Reeves in the '22-'23 rotation + Roach a 2022 draft candidate + Banchero coming back (???). I get we're all excited (or deathly nervous) for Saturday, but still...

All of the above impacts our ability to get a transfer. The composition of next year's roster is the single most important thing when evaluating Duke as a potential landing spot for transfers.

[HayYou]

I don't think we'll get a star player. I think we'll get someone in the Theo John mold, though perhaps with PF/C versatility rather than a straight C like John. And I think we need that type of player, as frontcourt is a tough ask for freshmen against grown men. Moreso than guard.

And again, I think the biggest value said player will have is in practice, adding a degree of physicality from experience that Reeves and Borden (both of whom are skinny, and Borden simply not nearly good enough) simply can't provide.

Can we get by without it? Maybe. And obviously getting another starting caliber wing is more critical. But I think getting a guy like that is going to be pretty important for our team's development. We've never rolled into a season with zero experience in our frontcourt, and I can't imagine that Scheyer wants to begin his career on that foot (especially as next season will be like this year with lots of very old teams).

I grant that a transfer's best value to the team is in practice. I'm just not sure we'll get one if that is all we can offer. IDK how many kids want to ride pine their final year of college.

[godins]

All of the above impacts our ability to get a transfer. The composition of next year's roster is the single most important thing when evaluating Duke as a potential landing spot for transfers.

The poster you're responding to is not criticizing the basis of the thread, but rather where it's come to. There's something in the water this week causing otherwise rational posters to posit that Paolo Banchero is somehow considering a second year at Duke and that Jeremy Roach might leave as a low lottery pick. Neither is happening, and both are curious takes.