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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Richmond, VA

    Transfer portal players 2021

    In separate threads we have talked about the transfer portal and how to build a team. I wondered about actually how you build teams with transfers.

    So here is the 2021 transfer portal list.

    https://247sports.com/Season/2021-Ba...sitionRanking/

    Not many of the players and the teams to which they transferred jump out to me as having a better chance than Duke of winning the NCAA.

    I do see Remi Martin at Kansas who averages 20 mpg and Coleman-Lands who averages 9 mpg

    Pelle Larsson at Ariz averages 21 mpg 7 pts; 1.8 asts and Oumar Ballo averages 15 mpg and 7 pts (he transferred from Gonzaga)

    Oscar Tshiewbwe does stand out at Ky

    Walker Kessler at Auburn also stands out

    So building teams with transfers that have experience makes conceptual sense but I am not sure there are as many quality transfers as everyone thinks.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by MarkD83 View Post
    In separate threads we have talked about the transfer portal and how to build a team. I wondered about actually how you build teams with transfers.

    So here is the 2021 transfer portal list.

    https://247sports.com/Season/2021-Ba...sitionRanking/

    Not many of the players and the teams to which they transferred jump out to me as having a better chance than Duke of winning the NCAA.

    I do see Remi Martin at Kansas who averages 20 mpg and Coleman-Lands who averages 9 mpg

    Pelle Larsson at Ariz averages 21 mpg 7 pts; 1.8 asts and Oumar Ballo averages 15 mpg and 7 pts (he transferred from Gonzaga)

    Oscar Tshiewbwe does stand out at Ky

    Walker Kessler at Auburn also stands out

    So building teams with transfers that have experience makes conceptual sense but I am not sure there are as many quality transfers as everyone thinks.
    Those were rankings as of the time. But Alondes Williams, Dallas Walton, Jake LaRavia, Charlie Moore, and Sahvir Wheeler were also huge contributors off the transfer market that didn't top the list as of this time last year. Not to mention Manek and Garcia. And Jaylen Gardner. And Paul Atkinson.
    Last edited by CDu; 03-13-2022 at 04:00 PM.

  3. #3
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    Feb 2007
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    Richmond, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Those were rankings as of the time. But Alondes Williams, Dallas Walton, Jake LaRavia, Charlie Moore, and Sahvir Wheeler were also huge contributors off the transfer market that didn't top the list as of this time last year. Not to mention Manek and Garcia. And Jaylen Gardner. And Paul Atkinson.
    True but they were distributed across various teams so I don’t see a team of all transfers going to one place. That means you need the high school players. Also even teams like wake or Miami that have a fair number are on the bubble where Duke is looking at a 2 or 3 seed

  4. #4
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    Feb 2007
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    Richmond, VA
    I also want to get this last practical thought out of my mind and then have fun watching the Big 10 and seeing the brackets.

    Pragmatically you want talented freshman, some upper classmen who have developed and a few transfers. And players who may stay around and develop.

    Well we have three freshmen in the rotation and we moan about OADs. We also have Jaylen who is the freshman that stays and develops.
    We also have Mark who is better now than last year. We also have Jeremy who is better now than last year and may stay and further develop.
    The issue with Mark is that he got too good and may go pro (not a bad problem to have).
    We also have Wendell, a junior who is much better than he was as a freshman.
    We also have Joey, who we wish had developed more but was here for 4 years.
    We also have 2 grad transfers. Theo works as a sub for Mark. I wish he would not get called for as many fouls so he could play more.
    Bates does not play a lot and you can never tell how much he helps in practice so I won't say anything else.

    The team is ACC regular season champion, 28-6 and going to get a high seed. How else could the team be constituted?

    My answer is not the balance of where the players came from (freshmen, upperclassmen, transfers) but that we are missing a lock-down defensive point guard with experience. (I now know why the loss of Jordan was a topic of conversation early in the year.)

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by MarkD83 View Post
    True but they were distributed across various teams so I don’t see a team of all transfers going to one place. That means you need the high school players. Also even teams like wake or Miami that have a fair number are on the bubble where Duke is looking at a 2 or 3 seed
    I mean, nobody is saying build a team entirely of transfers. Wake got 4 this year (Williams, LaRavia, Walton, Monsanto), and that took them from a bottom of the barrel squad to the fringe of the tournament. Kentucky added 3 (Grady, Tshiebwe, and Wheeler), and they are a 2 seed. Baylor added one (Akinjo) and they are a 1 seed. Texas Tech added 4 and they are a 3 seed. And I'm sure there are others among the "protected seed" teams, but I'm too lazy to look it up because I think the point has been made. There is clearly a precedent set this year that you can recruit 3-4 transfers and turn your team around or keep it in the high seed discussion.

  6. #6
    The transfer portal gives and it takes as well. Duke traded Brakefield, Coleman and Goldwire for John last year. I think all things being equal, the talent would get equally redistributed but the X factor is NIL$. The players can actually have agents now. It’s free agency with no salary cap.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Richmond, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I mean, nobody is saying build a team entirely of transfers. Wake got 4 this year (Williams, LaRavia, Walton, Monsanto), and that took them from a bottom of the barrel squad to the fringe of the tournament. Kentucky added 3 (Grady, Tshiebwe, and Wheeler), and they are a 2 seed. Baylor added one (Akinjo) and they are a 1 seed. Texas Tech added 4 and they are a 3 seed. And I'm sure there are others among the "protected seed" teams, but I'm too lazy to look it up because I think the point has been made. There is clearly a precedent set this year that you can recruit 3-4 transfers and turn your team around or keep it in the high seed discussion.
    Again a great point...I am more of a tactician than a strategist which is why I like this give and take to determine the "what and how" rather than the philosophy.

    So the roster is not all transfers and you pick and choose the ones to elevate the program. That still means taking freshmen (obviously) and while you are doing this you might as well take several top incoming freshmen. This leaves what other folks are pushing for which is take several other freshmen who will develop over the years.

    I am forgetting where I put my post about this but that sounds a lot like the current team so Duke has already adapted the new strategy that includes the transfer portal.

    The issue then becomes are the players available in one year that you can attract to the program to build or rebuild the perfect team.
    Teams used to have 4 years to do this.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by MarkD83 View Post
    Again a great point...I am more of a tactician than a strategist which is why I like this give and take to determine the "what and how" rather than the philosophy.

    So the roster is not all transfers and you pick and choose the ones to elevate the program. That still means taking freshmen (obviously) and while you are doing this you might as well take several top incoming freshmen. This leaves what other folks are pushing for which is take several other freshmen who will develop over the years.

    I am forgetting where I put my post about this but that sounds a lot like the current team so Duke has already adapted the new strategy that includes the transfer portal.

    The issue then becomes are the players available in one year that you can attract to the program to build or rebuild the perfect team.
    Teams used to have 4 years to do this.
    I wish Coleman and Goldwire had stayed and we hadn't taken Theo. Both Coleman and Goldwire would have helped this team. Coleman is better than John by a long shot and would have 2 more years.

    GoDuke!

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    I wish Coleman and Goldwire had stayed and we hadn't taken Theo. Both Coleman and Goldwire would have helped this team. Coleman is better than John by a long shot and would have 2 more years.

    GoDuke!
    But would Coleman have gotten any more minutes than John this year? Coleman wanted to be a starter - where does he fit in that lineup? Ahead of the ACC Defensive POTY or ahead of the ACC ROTY?

    Coleman made a good choice.

    Goldwire played four years and wanted to take a shot at more PT. There's no ill will for me, and it seems it worked out well. Also, I don't think he would be seeing significant minutes on our team either. Roach has a better shot and better drive.
    Last edited by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15; 03-14-2022 at 08:01 AM. Reason: Added Goldwire thoughts

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    But would Coleman have gotten any more minutes than John this year? Coleman wanted to be a starter - where does he fit in that lineup? Ahead of the ACC Defensive POTY or ahead of the ACC ROTY?

    Coleman made a good choice.

    Goldwire played four years and wanted to take a shot at more PT. There's no ill will for me, and it seems it worked out well. Also, I don't think he would be seeing significant minutes on our team either. Roach has a better shot and better drive.
    Yes, getting minutes was a big question mark for Henry and Henry probably had that question in his mind when he chose to transfer. I think he would have gotten more minutes than Theo is getting because he's a much better player. He's a much better player than Joey and Jones. I guess it all comes down to the fact, that once ACC play begins, Coach K cuts the rotation down to 7 players. I don't blame Henry for transferring but I know he would have helped this team and I think Goldwire would have too. Both players played well for their new teams and I'm sure they enjoyed their seasons. Even though they won't be playing in the NCAAT.

    GoDuke!

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by MarkD83 View Post
    Again a great point...I am more of a tactician than a strategist which is why I like this give and take to determine the "what and how" rather than the philosophy.

    So the roster is not all transfers and you pick and choose the ones to elevate the program. That still means taking freshmen (obviously) and while you are doing this you might as well take several top incoming freshmen. This leaves what other folks are pushing for which is take several other freshmen who will develop over the years.

    I am forgetting where I put my post about this but that sounds a lot like the current team so Duke has already adapted the new strategy that includes the transfer portal.

    The issue then becomes are the players available in one year that you can attract to the program to build or rebuild the perfect team.
    Teams used to have 4 years to do this.
    No, we haven’t really come close to adapting to the transfer portal. As shown, UK (3 starters), Wake (3 starters and a key reserve), Baylor (1 starter), Auburn (4 starters), Texas Tech (4 starters), and I am sure others have thoroughly revamped their lineup thanks to the portal. We have gotten fringe pieces, and no more than 1 regular ever, and in recent years only grad transfers (1-year guys) at that. Since the transfer portal was created in 2018, we haven’t had a single impact player transfer in. Our last significant transfer arrived on campus almost 10 years ago.

    There will always be plenty of impact players available in the portal. Every year. So maximizing the transfer portal means being able to to find 1-4 impact transfers as needed. We aren’t close to that.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Lewisville, NC
    Going forward, I think we'll see fewer of the 5th and 6-year players who remained in college basketball partly because of the rules following the Covid season.

    Charlie Moore of Miami was a killer against Duke, a "Six-year Redshirt Senior" as his Miami profile indicated and recently turned 24 years old. Experienced backcourt play is a real asset and we didn't have much of it.

    https://miamihurricanes.com/roster/charlie-moore/

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    Yes, getting minutes was a big question mark for Henry and Henry probably had that question in his mind when he chose to transfer. I think he would have gotten more minutes than Theo is getting because he's a much better player. He's a much better player than Joey and Jones. I guess it all comes down to the fact, that once ACC play begins, Coach K cuts the rotation down to 7 players. I don't blame Henry for transferring but I know he would have helped this team and I think Goldwire would have too. Both players played well for their new teams and I'm sure they enjoyed their seasons. Even though they won't be playing in the NCAAT.

    GoDuke!
    Oh, I agree that Duke would be better with them. No question.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    No, we haven’t really come close to adapting to the transfer portal. As shown, UK (3 starters), Wake (3 starters and a key reserve), Baylor (1 starter), Auburn (4 starters), Texas Tech (4 starters), and I am sure others have thoroughly revamped their lineup thanks to the portal. We have gotten fringe pieces, and no more than 1 regular ever, and in recent years only grad transfers (1-year guys) at that. Since the transfer portal was created in 2018, we haven’t had a single impact player transfer in. Our last significant transfer arrived on campus almost 10 years ago.

    There will always be plenty of impact players available in the portal. Every year. So maximizing the transfer portal means being able to to find 1-4 impact transfers as needed. We aren’t close to that.
    Exactly. It's about balance in different recruiting platforms, and Duke doesn't have that. Duke has been awful historically at transfers pre-COVID, and they are severely lacking behind in the post-COVID world with the new rules.

    There are dozens of players in college basketball who want to play for a blue chipper and, even more specifically, Duke.

    Next year will be a great test. If we lose the 5 players we're all predicting we'll lose, there is a glaring hole at the 2. I will be the first to say I do not want Baker in that role, I do not think Blakes is ready, and I do not think Schutt is ranked high enough to garner a frosh starting spot.

    Scheyer - leverage the portal. Please.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Exactly. It's about balance in different recruiting platforms, and Duke doesn't have that. Duke has been awful historically at transfers pre-COVID, and they are severely lacking behind in the post-COVID world with the new rules.

    There are dozens of players in college basketball who want to play for a blue chipper and, even more specifically, Duke.

    Next year will be a great test. If we lose the 5 players we're all predicting we'll lose, there is a glaring hole at the 2. I will be the first to say I do not want Baker in that role, I do not think Blakes is ready, and I do not think Schutt is ranked high enough to garner a frosh starting spot.

    Scheyer - leverage the portal. Please.
    This topic came up around January when I had a little more free time and I did a quick search for transfer candidates for Duke. I think my first cut was to look at a metric like the top 50 in average 3-pointers made per game, as that is likely what we want out of the position. I then went through the list and I think I found at least five players who seemed like decent candidates - still have eligibility left, not likely going pro next year, no huge ties to the school they are currently at that would lead one to believe they would never leave, might have some reason to want to go to school in North Carolina, no other major flags.

    I'm assuming that with their vast resources, the basketball program has similar lists in place.

    But for now, I will focus my time and energy on the current season and will worry about this more in April.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by MarkD83 View Post
    In separate threads we have talked about the transfer portal and how to build a team. I wondered about actually how you build teams with transfers.

    So here is the 2021 transfer portal list.

    https://247sports.com/Season/2021-Ba...sitionRanking/

    Not many of the players and the teams to which they transferred jump out to me as having a better chance than Duke of winning the NCAA.

    I do see Remi Martin at Kansas who averages 20 mpg and Coleman-Lands who averages 9 mpg

    Pelle Larsson at Ariz averages 21 mpg 7 pts; 1.8 asts and Oumar Ballo averages 15 mpg and 7 pts (he transferred from Gonzaga)

    Oscar Tshiewbwe does stand out at Ky

    Walker Kessler at Auburn also stands out

    So building teams with transfers that have experience makes conceptual sense but I am not sure there are as many quality transfers as everyone thinks.
    That's a super weird list, it's ordered by high school ranking, which is interesting but not the full picture when most of these guys have real CBB experience under their belt. Bryce Thompson was a McDAA for KU, which is why he's #1 here, but he really struggled with the speed of the game (and injury) in his one year in Lawrence. On the flip side, guys like Bryson Williams (unanimous 1st team all Big12), Tshiebwe, and Marcus Carr aren't on the list at all.

    As to the original question about teams standing in Duke's way for a title: Potential S16 opponent TTech has 4 transfers in their starting 5.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Going forward, I think we'll see fewer of the 5th and 6-year players who remained in college basketball partly because of the rules following the Covid season.

    Charlie Moore of Miami was a killer against Duke, a "Six-year Redshirt Senior" as his Miami profile indicated and recently turned 24 years old. Experienced backcourt play is a real asset and we didn't have much of it.

    https://miamihurricanes.com/roster/charlie-moore/
    Justin Mutts is on his 3rd team. I love his game. I wonder if he showed had shown his versatility before arriving in Blacksburg or if Mike Young Coached him up.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Exactly. It's about balance in different recruiting platforms, and Duke doesn't have that. Duke has been awful historically at transfers pre-COVID, and they are severely lacking behind in the post-COVID world with the new rules.

    There are dozens of players in college basketball who want to play for a blue chipper and, even more specifically, Duke.

    Next year will be a great test. If we lose the 5 players we're all predicting we'll lose, there is a glaring hole at the 2. I will be the first to say I do not want Baker in that role, I do not think Blakes is ready, and I do not think Schutt is ranked high enough to garner a frosh starting spot.

    Scheyer - leverage the portal. Please.
    The only quibble I might have is that Blakes - a fringe top-100 recruit, might very well be ready next year. There are plenty of guys in his recruiting range who are impact players, even as freshmen (see Blake Wesley, for example), let alone sophomores. Same comment about Schutt. He's a good enough recruit to play right away, whether or not he does is another question.

    That said, I completely agree with your overarching point: there is no reason why Duke can't take advantage of its high-profile program to attract impact transfers. We haven't been able to do so yet. Hopefully we can start doing so ASAP. I think we'll likely need 1-2 key players (likely a starting PG or SG; likely a key rotation big man), and that's assuming we only lose those 5 starters.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The only quibble I might have is that Blakes - a fringe top-100 recruit, might very well be ready next year. There are plenty of guys in his recruiting range who are impact players, even as freshmen (see Blake Wesley, for example), let alone sophomores. Same comment about Schutt. He's a good enough recruit to play right away, whether or not he does is another question.

    That said, I completely agree with your overarching point: there is no reason why Duke can't take advantage of its high-profile program to attract impact transfers. We haven't been able to do so yet. Hopefully we can start doing so ASAP. I think we'll likely need 1-2 key players (likely a starting PG or SG; likely a key rotation big man), and that's assuming we only lose those 5 starters.
    I'd rather go with the rule rather than the exception. Blakes and Schutt could be ready; I don't really want to wait until November for the coaching staff to see if that happens.

    Bring in a 2 transfer with the understanding they are the frontrunner for the starting position but Blakes - a top 100 player - and Schutt - a 3pt specialist - could command plenty of playing time (reading between the lines: may take your spot).
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    I wish Coleman and Goldwire had stayed and we hadn't taken Theo. Both Coleman and Goldwire would have helped this team. Coleman is better than John by a long shot and would have 2 more years.

    GoDuke!
    Not sure Duke would have Henry for 2 more years. If Henry wanted to start, he wasn't going to do that on this year's team though he could possibly (probably unlikely) get close to starter minutes backing up Mark and Paolo. Next year Henry would be stuck in the same boat as Duke brings in Flip, Lively and Mitchell. Maybe if Henry is around Duke doesn't get Mitchell, but Henry would still be looking at an uphill climb for starter minutes.

    Goldwire would have been a nice depth piece.

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