2022 ACC Tournament Discussion

[Dr. Maturin]

You wouldn't know it by reading this thread, but the #1 seed Blue Devils will enter the ACC Tournament as a significant favorite. Here's how the KenPom and Torvik projections look.

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[bshrader]

Well you still have to score more points- so there is something else.

If you are scoring 81 points and carrying a top 25 defense, scoring points isn't the issue, so I'll say again. Defense was, essentially, the only issue.

[brevity]

I used to like bracket theory. I don’t get this bracket. It seems like of all the double-bye teams, the number one (Duke!!! Woo-hoo!) has the worst draw, by design. We have no chance to face a low seed upset, and our opponent will have only played one game rather than two, like the other three double-bye teams. After one game you come in warmed up, after two in a row you come in dog tired. I just don’t get this bracket. I thought the number one seed was supposed to get the easiest road to the championship game. This is not that, by a long stretch, because the difference between a warmed up opponent and a tired opponent in your first game is like night and day. Thoughts?

You are right; curiously, we are the only team that has a double-bye that doesn't face a team that has already played two games. Weird how it is set-up.

That's not accurate. If the 5th, 6th, and 7th seeded teams hold serve and beat their opponents , then the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th seeded teams will play an opponent who has only played one game.

Hartford Dukie is correct, and I'll add that in a 15-team bracket like this, the 1 seed is the only team who, by design, can't face a 2-0 team in the quarterfinals. The tradeoff, if you can call it that, is that the 1 seed Duke only has to prepare for 2 possible quarterfinal opponents (FSU or Syracuse) instead of 3 (Notre Dame, for example, could play Virginia Tech, Clemson, or NC State).

So how does the 1 seed do against a "warmed up" 8 or 9 seed in the 15-team bracket? Last year Virginia barely got by Syracuse, but those guys had COVID and withdrew from the ACC Tournament the next day. 2020 was a non-starter. But before that...

2019: (1) UVA 76, (8) NCSU 56 -- they lost the next day, but then won 6 in a row
2018: (1) UVA 75, (9) Lou 58 -- won the ACC, lost to UMBC
2017: (1) UNC 78, (9) Mia 53 -- but they lost the next day to an ascendant 5 seed
2016: (1) UNC 88, (8) Pitt 71
2016: (2) UVA 72, (10) GT 52 -- no 15 seed because of Louisville's postseason ban
2015: (1) UVA 58, (9) FSU 44
2015: (2) Duke 77, (7) NCSU 53 -- no 15 seed because of Syracuse postseason ban
2014: (1) UVA 64, (9) FSU 51

That's it. From 2014-2019, the 1 seed (and the 2 seed in a 14-team bracket) always won, and the final score was never particularly close.

[CoachJ10]

Money on the lock of the week…UNC getting bounced in their first game. No brainer of no brainers.

[bshrader]

Money on the lock of the week…UNC getting bounced in their first game. No brainer of no brainers.

I'd love to see it, but I don't think it happens. Not with the potential matchups they are looking at. They match up well with UVA. I think Notre Dame is a but of fools gold and VT can't handle Carolinas interior.

Would have been a much harder matchup for Carolina to draw Wake.

[Mak P]

If you are scoring 81 points and carrying a top 25 defense, scoring points isn't the issue, so I'll say again. Defense was, essentially, the only issue.

That's not how it works though. You can't just take a total number of anything and say that's the whole story. First 7 minutes they were sitting on 8 pts. From 5:35 to :54 in the 2nd, UNC went on a 13-5 run. Offensively, they had a horrible beginning and ending. Also had 9 turnovers. Defense might have been a bigger problem than offense, but to say offensively wasn't a problem at all with scoring droughts like that is incorrect

[bshrader]

That's not how it works though. You can't just take a total number of anything and say that's the whole story. First 7 minutes they were sitting on 8 pts. From 5:35 to :54 in the 2nd, UNC went on a 13-5 run. Offensively, they had a horrible beginning and ending. Also had 9 turnovers. Defense might have been a bigger problem than offense, but to say offensively wasn't a problem at all with scoring droughts like that is incorrect

If you want to make the argument that we weren't efficient on offense, then that's fine. I can somewhat see that. We still slightly shot a better percentage from the field than they did and 3-pt percentage was similar.

The real issue was the inability to get stops and create turnovers. First time around, we held them to 40% from the field. This time around, high 40s.

I hear what you're saying, you can't look at things in a vacuum. But I don't think there's much comparison in what our downfall was last night. And that was defensive lapses and inability to force contested shots.

[Bob Green]

Folks...

This is the ACC Tournament thread for discussion on the upcoming ACC Tournament. If you desire to rehash last night’s loss to Carolina, the post game thread is available.

Thanks!

[UrinalCake]

Anyone have an update on which of FSU's injured players are expected to be back?

[bshrader]

Anyone have an update on which of FSU's injured players are expected to be back?

I think everyone is back but the 2 who were out for the season. Osborne and McLeod, maybe?? I think everyone else has returned.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Money on the lock of the week…UNC getting bounced in their first game. No brainer of no brainers.

One thing that is in UNC's favor is that they could be playing a team that has already played twice. That would be a bummer of an advantage for them, as opposed to Duke since our opponent is guaranteed to have only played one game.

[Mak P]

Cuse and FSU had two close games. I saw GT beat FSU and when we went zone we got back in it vs FSU. I'm just saying they struggle with the zone

[Music man55]

I will have to admit, FSU scares me a lot more than ‘Cuse. They are athletic, long, and can rip three pointers. I know Cuse can really shoot too, but I don’t like the matchup with the Seminoles. I believe if we get FSU, it might go south on us if we don’t get our defense in line. Hope K is working his magic.

[rsvman]

If we get Fla St, I hope K utilizes the zone earlier in the game. It gave them fits.

[CDu]

Anyone have an update on which of FSU's injured players are expected to be back?

They had everyone back that will be coming back. Osborne (their best player) and McLeod (starting center) are done for the year. But Evans returned shortly after our game, Polite returned in their win over UVa, and Mills returned against State.

[MarkD83]

Amazing the nay sayers.

Five losses. Four very close ones. A fifth under unprecedented circumstances that we can all agree we should have played much better in.

I suspect we come out Thursday all business and ready to get past the nostalgia tour.

I concur with this and will also add that Duke will NOT get out toughed in the first round game (read their defensive intensity will be high). They were just called out in public that their last performance was "unacceptable". They then had to sit and watch Coach K's retirement ceremony with 80+ members of the brotherhood staring at them for about an hour.

My fear for the 1st round game is that there will be lots of stare downs and elbows...which could mean technical fouls and 1 game suspensions for the semi-final game.

[arnie]

I will have to admit, FSU scares me a lot more than ‘Cuse. They are athletic, long, and can rip three pointers. I know Cuse can really shoot too, but I don’t like the matchup with the Seminoles. I believe if we get FSU, it might go south on us if we don’t get our defense in line. Hope K is working his magic.

I can’t recall how effectively their primary ball handlers drove through our defense in the 1st game? But any team we meet with quick guards in the ACC or more importantly the NCAA tourney scare me.

Hope we devise a better defensive plan against those teams than we had against the Cheats.

[UrinalCake]

Trivia Time! When was the last time Duke lost a game in the ACC Tournament?






















Answer: March 9, 2018.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Trivia Time! When was the last time Duke lost a game in the ACC Tournament?


















Answer: March 9, 2018.

Wow!

[gumbomoop]

Kudos to duke2x (post #8, which I will not copy here) for being emotionally awake enough yesterday to think through the entire ACCT bracket. And the visual of that list of predictions might overshadow his opening statement about the revenge tour.

1. To duke2x, did you predict UVa to beat UNC because you want them to do so, first on general principle but also because that would eliminate any possibility of a revenge-Final, and a revenge-failure; or because you think UVa will not be tired and is much improved since the Heels drubbed them 2 months back?

2. I do prefer to face the Heels in the Final, though in the immediate moment I would hardly be downcast should they lose earlier. Nevertheless, an argument can be made that winning the ACCT by beating the Heels is the first of 2 steps that would mostly erase the rivalry-impact of Saturday’s debacle. The second is winning the NCAAT.

3. Still, a lot has to happen to get to a revenge-Final. Most of us seem to be predicting FSU to beat Cuse, and then to give Duke all it can handle. I agree with that, though KenPom/Torvik favor Cuse [see Dr. Maturin’s post #21]. Stats (Cuse) v. eye test/momentum (FSU), I guess? I don’t know that FSU is overall as strong as before all their injuries, but the injuries seem to have allowed several of their early-season bench players to play, get better, and gain confidence. So if our players are thinking about Heel-revenge, FSU (Cuse, too, for that matter) players are thinking revenge, too.

4. Revenge would seem a likely theme if Duke makes the semis to play either Wake or Miami. Wake might be a little tired. I prefer to play Miami, recognizing the relevance of being careful not to wish for the wrong thing.

5. On the other side of the bracket, any of UVa, ND, VT, or UNC could make the Final. I’d even include a sort-of hot Clemson, but topping UNC or UVa in a 4th straight game seems unlikely. Under normal circumstances, I’d want the Heels to be clobbered in the quarters, but Saturday night complicates things. Doesn’t it?

6. Perhaps revenge is not the right spirit with which a Duke fan should approach the rest of the season?