Russia & Ukraine

[budwom]

So we should just stand by? He already is conducting cyberwar. You need to punch bullies in the nose, and make it hurt.

I have absolutely NO idea why you infer this from my statement. None. Zero. I'm just describing what he's going to do.

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Shocked they are attacking Kyiv. This is absolutely nuts to me. I assumed this would be a surgical incursion. The nazi justification thing is nuts.

Perhaps Putin has overplayed his hand. CNN reports that Ukraine took back a bridge and pushed the Russians back in the south. The video seems to support that claim. Vindman on CNN claims Ukraine still holds an airport. Perhaps Russia is bogging down. While presumably Ukraine will fall, how long and at what costs to Russia. People on here have asked what can the US do. I would hope we are trying to get weapons to Ukraine. The Ukrainians who have been interviewed seem willing to fight, if necessary to the death. If Putin thought the Russians would be welcomed as liberators maybe he should put in a call to Rumsfield and see how that works out. (I know Rumsfield isn’t around, maybe Putin will join him shortly.)

[ClemmonsDevil]

Perhaps Putin has overplayed his hand. CNN reports that Ukraine took back a bridge and pushed the Russians back in the south. The video seems to support that claim. Vindman on CNN claims Ukraine still holds an airport. Perhaps Russia is bogging down. While presumably Ukraine will fall, how long and at what costs to Russia. People on here have asked what can the US do. I would hope we are trying to get weapons to Ukraine. The Ukrainians who have been interviewed seem willing to fight, if necessary to the death. If Putin thought the Russians would be welcomed as liberators maybe he should put in a call to Rumsfield and see how that works out. (I know Rumsfield isn’t around, maybe Putin will join him shortly.)

I do hope we ban them from SWIFT and send money and weapons to Ukraine.

[budwom]

I don't think the Russians can be stopped, but it's going to be a tussle. I suspect Vlad will end it relatively quickly by arresting the leadership of Ukraine and installing his puppets.

Meanwhile, I wonder how Russia's numerous oligarchs feel about all this. Their bargain (rather one-sided) with Vlad is that he allows them to plunder at will as long as he gets his cut and they don't stray into politics. So for a long time they
have played along. If sanctions affect these guys, might their loyalty become strained, and if so can they do anything about it?

[dudog84]

Perhaps Putin has overplayed his hand.

He has made a classic blunder.



(Yes, I know, Ukraine is in Europe. But close is good enough in horseshoes and hand grenades.)

[CameronBlue]

I don’t suppose there would be a lot of support for not just seizing the assets of the oligarchs but detaining them as well, Given our checkered past in that regard And the fact that it would violate the principles of American jurisprudence, probably a bad idea overall. Many of those oligarchs own a lot of American real estate and enterprise including controlling ownership of the NBA’s Nets to give just one example. In London it’s even worse they reputedly own half of London’s business district. I question whether America has the capability to truly pressure the oligarchs.

[budwom]

I don’t suppose there would be a lot of support for not just seizing the assets of the oligarchs but detaining them as well, Given our checkered past in that regard And the fact that it would violate the principles of American jurisprudence, probably a bad idea overall. Many of those oligarchs own a lot of American real estate and enterprise including controlling ownership of the NBA’s Nets. In London it’s even worse they reputedly own half of London’s business district. I question whether America has the capability to truly pressure the oligarchs.

The garks don't hold the Nyets any more, though as you say they once did. I'm not sure either about how much the garks can be pressured, but I think it will be attempted.

[Indoor66]

The garks don't hold the Nyets any more, though as you say they once did. I'm not sure either about how much the garks can be pressured, but I think it will be attempted.

Why not olis?

[wilson]

...Many of those oligarchs own a lot of American real estate and enterprise including controlling ownership of the NBA’s Nets to give just one example. In London it’s even worse they reputedly own half of London’s business district. I question whether America has the capability to truly pressure the oligarchs.

The garks don't hold the Nyets any more, though as you say they once did. I'm not sure either about how much the garks can be pressured, but I think it will be attempted.

Interesting points. It is a challenge, given that the oligarchs have largely been smart enough to remove their assets from directly Russian institutions. I wonder what attempts will be/are being made to pressure "neutral" locations of offshore accounts where much Russian (and other oligarchic) wealth is held.
It does seem that removal from SMART would be a truly crippling blow to the Russian economy, though I don't pretend to know enough about global finance to understand whether that might be a pyrrhic victory, or whether it would actually push Putin into some of the more drastic actions that he's threatened in semi-veiled fashion.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Interesting points. It is a challenge, given that the oligarchs have largely been smart enough to remove their assets from directly Russian institutions. I wonder what attempts will be/are being made to pressure "neutral" locations of offshore accounts where much Russian (and other oligarchic) wealth is held.
It does seem that removal from SMART would be a truly crippling blow to the Russian economy, though I don't pretend to know enough about global finance to understand whether that might be a pyrrhic victory, or whether it would actually push Putin into some of the more drastic actions that he's threatened in semi-veiled fashion.

I'm not a global Financial Analyst (IANAGFA?). But what I have read about this is that Europe and Russia are so inextricably tied financially that this would really hurt Europe quite a bit.

[PackMan97]

I'm not a global Financial Analyst (IANAGFA?). But what I have read about this is that Europe and Russia are so inextricably tied financially that this would really hurt Europe quite a bit.

I'm certain that this factored into Putin's decision to invade. He knows that to push any truly meaningful sanctions, countries will have to harm their own economy as well. I just don't see the global stomach for that after two years of COVID.

The Simpson cartoon someone posted early was spot on.

My fear is that at the end of the day, we appease Putin and as a result embolden Russia and China to do a bit more "outreach" toward their neighbors.

[ClemmonsDevil]

I'm certain that this factored into Putin's decision to invade. He knows that to push any truly meaningful sanctions, countries will have to harm their own economy as well. I just don't see the global stomach for that after two years of COVID.

The Simpson cartoon someone posted early was spot on.

My fear is that at the end of the day, we appease Putin and as a result embolden Russia and China to do a bit more "outreach" toward their neighbors.

Never underestimate the ability of people in large groups to make the worst possible decision.

[CameronBlue]

I am no authority on the topic by any stretch of the imagination but apparently it’s why some analysts in London see SWIFT as the only real leverage The West can bring to bear. Again no expert am I but it begs the question whether It is a political miscalculation to dismiss Russia as an economic power because they have less than half the Gross domestic product of California (or whatever that talking point is that was popularized by Obama). Through the oligarchs they appear to have political influence that far out reaches their economic heft.

[TrickDribbles99]

Attachment 14232

Normal? Maybe if Homer already had a plugged in toaster in the tub with him (highest inflation in 40 years), was eaten up with measles (Covid still a major problem) and Lisa was picking up a chair on the other side (China).

[dudog84]

Normal? Maybe if Homer already had a plugged in toaster in the tub with him (highest inflation in 40 years), was eaten up with measles (Covid still a major problem) and Lisa was picking up a chair on the other side (China).

I could counter this, but are we really going to go there? Please read jk's early post, I believe it was within the first 10 on the thread.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I just read something about the boxer Klitschko brothers. They are national heroes in Ukraine and one is mayor of Kyiv - really impressive guys. Too bad they can’t just put one of them in a ring with Vlad and settle this the old fashioned way. I think it would be resolved in three seconds.

[TrickDribbles99]

I could counter this, but are we really going to go there? Please read jk's early post, I believe it was within the first 10 on the thread.

Wut? Are Covid and inflation no longer issues? How did I miss that? They are both very much abnormal, in my estimation. Yes, I do know I need to be cautious on this board but to the point of ignoring relevant facts?

[budwom]

Interesting points. It is a challenge, given that the oligarchs have largely been smart enough to remove their assets from directly Russian institutions. I wonder what attempts will be/are being made to pressure "neutral" locations of offshore accounts where much Russian (and other oligarchic) wealth is held.
It does seem that removal from SMART would be a truly crippling blow to the Russian economy, though I don't pretend to know enough about global finance to understand whether that might be a pyrrhic victory, or whether it would actually push Putin into some of the more drastic actions that he's threatened in semi-veiled fashion.

I think there are two aspects to attacking the garks. The one I had in mind was to target their businesses, deny them access to capital markets, boycott them, hit them with some economic pain. After all, if the world is looking to hurt the Russian economy, taking on the garks is 100% mandatory since there essentially IS no economy outside of the garks.

CameronBlue brought up a separate but related point, which is seizing the assets of the garks. This may be somewhat more difficult since finding the assets could be a problem, and seizing them would pose interesting legal questions (though everyone seems to be good at making up legal justifications when they need to). I don't think seizure will be on the table right away, but wouldn't rule it out either.

Even though the garks own wide swats of London (and NYC for that matter) I don't see how seizure (if we ultimately get there) would disrupt the local economies. Authoritarian regimes seize stuff all the time and somehow muddle by.

But first I think they target the gark businesses...

[wavedukefan70s]

I absolutely believe we need to let this be.l9ok we apply sanctions except in energy .this is how i see
It. We damn near had a nuclear war with the cuban missle crisis .we did not want soviet weapons in cuba.
Fast forward to 2017 .after the previous moscow friendly potus dictator was overthrown for the new prowestern(installed by us) leader in the Ukraine .they decided that joining nato was something they wanted to do again.

Ukrainian Parliament adopted legislation in 2017 i bekieve reinstating NATO membership as the country's objective,
If im russia i do not want nato's defensive or offensive weapons on my boarder .this is a threat to security just as missles in cuba were a threat to ours.
As long as they stop at the Ukrainian border .i believe we have no buisness interfering.

We purchase near 600k barrels of oil daily several other nato nations purchase a considerable amount of energy aswell.
Why even pretend we are going to do anything.
Sanctions dont work.we just ship to a country that has no sanctions and trades with russia.it gets circumvented and still gets to its destination.
Big buisness doesnt care about anything but the bottom line.
I would hope this ends swiftly wuth minimum loss of life .

[ClemmonsDevil]

I absolutely believe we need to let this be.l9ok we apply sanctions except in energy .this is how i see
It. We damn near had a nuclear war with the cuban missle crisis .we did not want soviet weapons in cuba.
Fast forward to 2017 .after the previous moscow friendly potus dictator was overthrown for the new prowestern(installed by us) leader in the Ukraine .they decided that joining nato was something they wanted to do again.

Ukrainian Parliament adopted legislation in 2017 i bekieve reinstating NATO membership as the country's objective,
If im russia i do not want nato's defensive or offensive weapons on my boarder .this is a threat to security just as missles in cuba were a threat to ours.
As long as they stop at the Ukrainian border .i believe we have no buisness interfering.

We purchase near 600k barrels of oil daily several other nato nations purchase a considerable amount of energy aswell.
Why even pretend we are going to do anything.
Sanctions dont work.we just ship to a country that has no sanctions and trades with russia.it gets circumvented and still gets to its destination.
Big buisness doesnt care about anything but the bottom line.
I would hope this ends swiftly wuth minimum loss of life .

Agreed. Monroevich Doctrine in a nutshell. Sanctions are aboveboard here but I'm not even convinced we should go to Great Lengths considering where Ukraine is located and our historical reactions to incursions into our backyard. I'm not saying this is Honorable, I am saying it is a geopolitical reality perhaps. Yell a lot and do very little.