Russia & Ukraine

[duke74]

This continues not to be an answer of any substance.

In your opinion. If I went further I would venture into PPB territory. See my subsequent post. Perhaps that will satisfy you.


Think I'm timing myself out of this discussion.

[wilson]

I don't disagree with you. Was not suggesting an armed attack or a war. I just smell a Munich on the horizon. Putin "promises" to stand still if the West [fill in the blank].

Time to expand NATO eastward and get the EU to pull its weight. (A decades-old issue with the EU and NATO).

And squeeze unmercifully economically. Make Russia a pariah state in every sector and arena.

Several NATO powers, most notably Germany, have been standing in the way of eastward NATO expansion for some time now. Additionally, Hungary, a NATO member state, has an autocratic prime minister in Viktor Orbán who is presumably not all that averse to at least some of Putin's tactics. The votes aren't there, not that it's an overnight process in the first place.
The EU is somewhat hamstrung as well, given how much of their energy they buy from Russia. So the issue is fraught on quite a few levels, as Putin well knows, and the answer is nowhere near as simple as "show leadership."

[wilson]

In your opinion. If I went further I would venture into PPB territory. See my subsequent post. Perhaps that will satisfy you.


Think I'm timing myself out of this discussion.

Seriously? It's not really a matter of opinion to say that "show leadership" is a response lacking in substance.
"Go back to what Reagan did" is also reductionist and in a vast many ways not applicable to this world of four decades later.

[swood1000]

With respect to the Russians taking Kyiv, I guess it depends on whether the Russians are willing to flatten the city and then have to explain the reason for that, especially to people back home. My understanding is that defenders have a distinct advantage in urban warfare, and apparently the Ukrainians have practiced.

[Acymetric]

I'm hawkish as hell. But we can't go to war for Ukraine. No more than Russia would defend Mexican sovereignty were we to invade. Ukraine is in their sphere of influence, and not a NATO member. Think of it as the Monroevich Doctrine. We aren't projecting military power into Russia's backyard. There are lines in the sand. This ain't one. This is when you use economic means to hurt them. But arguably Putin doesn't care about that, and sanctions push us deeper into inflationary issues and chaos ensues here and in other western democracies. That is playing into his hands as it were.

How would the (modern) world react if the US invaded Mexico? Interesting thought experiment, though probably not one we should have here.

[TruBlu]

My wife works at an outpatient surgery center. One of the surgeons who practices there went on a rant today that the invasion is a hoax and isn’t really happening. She is also an anti-vaxer who has had Covid. Not sure about her opinion on the moon landing and if unc cheating was real.

[swood1000]

Great post, swood. United States aid to Ukraine in the past year or so has also supposedly consisted of nearly $700 million worth of weapons and equipment, along with further lend/lease-type arrangements of US-produced equipment via other NATO nations.
I think that 1) Ukrainian resistance is likely to be more protracted than many might think, but 2) it's also unlikely to repel or prevent Russian objectives to any significant degree.

Russians back home may have applauded the takeover of Crimea but Crimea has a very large Russian population and also they had a referendum. The same is not true of Ukraine at large. The question would be how long Russia would be able to put up with (a) the cost of occupying Ukraine against a determined insurgency, and (b) the disapproval at home.

[dudog84]

Act with leadership and as (purportedly) the leader of the Western Bloc. We are back to the cold war - and deterrence is clearly not a viable strategy. And MAD (mutually assured destruction) seems not to affect Herr Putin.

Oh, I miss RR.

I miss my Rolls Royce also.

I don't disagree with you. Was not suggesting an armed attack or a war. I just smell a Munich on the horizon. Putin "promises" to stand still if the West [fill in the blank].

Time to expand NATO eastward and get the EU to pull its weight. (A decades-old issue with the EU and NATO).

And squeeze unmercifully economically. Make Russia a pariah state in every sector and arena.

How do you do that with China? Pretty big market there. Probably Brazil. Much of Africa. Significant portions of the Middle East.

I recently heard Russia described as a gas station with nukes. But humans are addicted to energy (understandibly, I suppose). And those nukes...

[OldPhiKap]

My wife works at an outpatient surgery center. One of the surgeons who practices there went on a rant today that the invasion is a hoax and isn’t really happening. She is also an anti-vaxer who has had Covid. Not sure about her opinion on the moon landing and if unc cheating was real.

Have her ask if birds are real.

[PackMan97]

I miss my Rolls Royce also.



How do you do that with China? Pretty big market there. Probably Brazil. Much of Africa. Significant portions of the Middle East.

I recently heard Russia described as a gas station with nukes. But humans are addicted to energy (understandibly, I suppose). And those nukes...

You can't, especially with China's belt and road initiative where they are creating vassal states dependent on their trade and investments, much like the US used to do. We are really beginning to see two systems, one for Russia, China and their vassals and one for the the US, Europe and their vassals. This is very clear with regards to the internet/information/news and i fear it will only become worse with time and lead to nothing good.

[OldPhiKap]

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[Bluedog]

Is this going to be the new COVID thread? (As in, it's heavily posted and lasts a long time). I sure hope not as that won't mean good things...But I appreciate the thoughtful analysis. Already 111 replies in less than a day.

And with that, I noticed the PlagueWatch thread is on page 2 now.

[ClemmonsDevil]

My wife works at an outpatient surgery center. One of the surgeons who practices there went on a rant today that the invasion is a hoax and isn’t really happening. She is also an anti-vaxer who has had Covid. Not sure about her opinion on the moon landing and if unc cheating was real.

Surgeons: well compensated mechanics.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

As one who is much more focused on and knowledgeable about domestic issues than international, I am looking at this situation through this lens. Many hoped that the one positive that might come out of Covid was that it would bring together a highly polarized nation, but it did not. Similarly, I am hoping that those who are predisposed to be against Biden and are generally rooting for his failure will not see this as an opportunity to pre-emptively second guess his every move - if he says the sun rises in the east, they will not automatically say no, it rises in the west (note that during the Trump administration, there were people who behaved similarly in opposition to him, though I do not believe it was as extreme).

This is a difficult situation and as others have noted, the decisions being made have ramifications far beyond the Ukraine. I trust that Biden has surrounded himself with smart people who he will listen to and I hope that he has had some success in rebuilding a State Department that by all accounts was hollowed out by the prior administration. Rather than playing Monday Morning Quarterback, hopefully others will make constructive suggestions and publicly voice their opinions in real time rather than afterwards.

[Jim3k]

This is a difficult situation and as others have noted, the decisions being made have ramifications far beyond the Ukraine. I trust that Biden has surrounded himself with smart people who he will listen to and I hope that he has had some success in rebuilding a State Department that by all accounts was hollowed out by the prior administration. Rather than playing Monday Morning Quarterback, hopefully others will make constructive suggestions and publicly voice their opinions in real time rather than afterwards.

Yes. Where is George F. Kennan? We need him back.

(Yeah, he tried to stay on...101 when he died in 2005. But damn...we could use his thinking today.)

[CameronBlue]

Is this going to be the new COVID thread? (As in, it's heavily posted and lasts a long time). I sure hope not as that won't mean good things...But I appreciate the thoughtful analysis. Already 111 replies in less than a day.

And with that, I noticed the PlagueWatch thread is on page 2 now.

Putin wants us to haul down the LTE. Whatever it takes man, whatever it takes.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Shocked they are attacking Kyiv. This is absolutely nuts to me. I assumed this would be a surgical incursion. The nazi justification thing is nuts.

[OldPhiKap]

Shocked they are attacking Kyiv. This is absolutely nuts to me. I assumed this would be a surgical incursion. The nazi justification thing is nuts.

Can’t set up a puppet state unless you get rid of the old guy and install your own puppet.

This is essentially setting up a border of vassal states a la the Warsaw Pact.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Can’t set up a puppet state unless you get rid of the old guy and install your own puppet.

This is essentially setting up a border of vassal states a la the Warsaw Pact.

So it seems. I assumed a land grab.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

So it seems. I assumed a land grab.

It’s a pipeline grab.

This is all about oil and their ability to control the transportation of that commodity, imo.