According to retired general Ben Hodges, formerly commander of American forces in Europe, “I absolutely believe that Ukrainian forces will push Russian forces back at least to the 23 February line by the end of this year, and that Crimea, early next year, will be totally under control of Ukrainian forces. It could all go faster.” This assumes the West keeps up the pressure and the military aid. He thinks that the Russian military has reached its
culminating point in Ukraine, which is when the attacking force can no longer continue its advance because of supply problems, the opposing force, or the need for rest.
Hodges also believes that we may be looking at the beginning of the collapse of the Russian Federation, over the next four or five years. “The military has been exposed, the massive amounts of corruption I think are going to become increasingly intolerable for Russian citizens.” Other points he makes:
• Russia has a population that is not truly ethnic Russian. There are 120 different ethnic groups. Most casualties come from well outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg. People out in Tuva or Siberia or Chechnya may see the opportunity to break away.
• After all these resources have been used up in Ukraine where will Russia find the resources to fight if Chechnya tries to break away again? What will have happened to the awe-inspiring military image that always acted as a deterrent to such movements?
• The loss of energy markets, which compensated for the country’s lack of modern industries, cannot be reversed.
• Russia has also relied on arms exports, but which country will be interested in buying
its equipment or weapons now?
Not everyone is with Hodges in predicting a return to February 23 borders by year end, Crimea early next year, and a collapse of Russia in the next five years but given the high military position he occupied his opinion is worth considering. Some of his reasoning echoes points made in
an analysis conducted in the 1990s which attributed the dissolution of the Soviet Union in part to the debacle they suffered in Afghanistan. Here’s a chart describing the situation as of May, 2022:
Attachment 14964
What’s the effect on troop morale when an army is routed as the Russian one has been in Ukraine from the very beginning and when casualties have been so high. Do their commanders have their backs? Do they even know why are they in Ukraine?