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  1. #1121
    Quote Originally Posted by swood1000 View Post
    According to retired general Ben Hodges, formerly commander of American forces in Europe, “I absolutely believe that Ukrainian forces will push Russian forces back at least to the 23 February line by the end of this year, and that Crimea, early next year, will be totally under control of Ukrainian forces. It could all go faster.” This assumes the West keeps up the pressure and the military aid. He thinks that the Russian military has reached its culminating point in Ukraine, which is when the attacking force can no longer continue its advance because of supply problems, the opposing force, or the need for rest.

    Hodges also believes that we may be looking at the beginning of the collapse of the Russian Federation, over the next four or five years. “The military has been exposed, the massive amounts of corruption I think are going to become increasingly intolerable for Russian citizens.” Other points he makes:
    Russia has a population that is not truly ethnic Russian. There are 120 different ethnic groups. Most casualties come from well outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg. People out in Tuva or Siberia or Chechnya may see the opportunity to break away.
    After all these resources have been used up in Ukraine where will Russia find the resources to fight if Chechnya tries to break away again? What will have happened to the awe-inspiring military image that always acted as a deterrent to such movements?
    The loss of energy markets, which compensated for the country’s lack of modern industries, cannot be reversed.
    Russia has also relied on arms exports, but which country will be interested in buying its equipment or weapons now?

    Not everyone is with Hodges in predicting a return to February 23 borders by year end, Crimea early next year, and a collapse of Russia in the next five years but given the high military position he occupied his opinion is worth considering. Some of his reasoning echoes points made in an analysis conducted in the 1990s which attributed the dissolution of the Soviet Union in part to the debacle they suffered in Afghanistan. Here’s a chart describing the situation as of May, 2022:

    Attachment 14964

    What’s the effect on troop morale when an army is routed as the Russian one has been in Ukraine from the very beginning and when casualties have been so high. Do their commanders have their backs? Do they even know why are they in Ukraine?
    swood, my man/woman, you are such an optimist.
    Carolina delenda est

  2. #1122
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Napoleon also said he could not be stopped because “I can spend 30,000 lives a month.” Not sure Ukraine can.

  3. #1123
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Napoleon also said he could not be stopped because “I can spend 30,000 lives a month.” Not sure Ukraine can.
    With Ukraine's edge in artillery range and accuracy, i would be shocked if their casualty rate isn't far far less than Russia's now.

  4. #1124
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    swood, my man/woman, you are such an optimist.
    Maybe they fired Hodges because he was saying crazy things in public.

  5. #1125
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Napoleon also said he could not be stopped because “I can spend 30,000 lives a month.” Not sure Ukraine can.
    It doesn’t seem like the Russian army’s ongoing enlistment prospects are that bright.

  6. #1126
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Rougemont Nebulae
    That is a staggering Casualty rate Assuming battalion strength is in the neighborhood of 1000 men. That Has to have a devastating effect on command, control and logistics. How close is Russia’s war effort to being broken down to full on chaotic, an every man for himself scenario, and further what is being reported back up the chain of command?

  7. #1127
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Swood - I may have known or worked with more generals than you -- or, maybe not. The really smart ones would never make a prediction like that. The successful generals and admirals are good at leadership and getting things done without making too many folks mad. Not so sure predicting the future is as important.
    Last edited by sagegrouse; 09-17-2022 at 01:29 PM.

  8. #1128
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
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    Cincinnati
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    The really smart ones would never make a prediction like that.
    Hodges was Commander, NATO Allied Land Command, 2012-2014, and Commanding General, United States Army Europe, 2014-2017. It sounds like somebody trusted his judgment.

    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    The successful generals and admirals are good at leadership and getting things done without making too many folks mad. Not so sure predicting the future is as important.
    Wouldn't the evaluation and prediction of military outcomes have been part of his job? I don't exclude the possibility that Hodges' prediction is in part intended to bolster Ukraine's morale, to keep its momentum going, and to assist Ukraine's efforts to keep its allies on board. As such it would be made for political purposes and is not necessarily the same evaluation he would give behind closed doors to the military. Even so, he must have concluded that such a position is not facially absurd.

  9. #1129
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    swood, my man/woman, you are such an optimist.
    yeah, we'll know in 3.5 months how true this prediction is. I'd say it's just plain nuts. Zero chance Vlad gives up Crimea.

  10. #1130
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by swood1000 View Post

    Wouldn't the evaluation and prediction of military outcomes have been part of his job? I don't exclude the possibility that Hodges' prediction is in part intended to bolster Ukraine's morale, to keep its momentum going, and to assist Ukraine's efforts to keep its allies on board. As such it would be made for political purposes and is not necessarily the same evaluation he would give behind closed doors to the military. Even so, he must have concluded that such a position is not facially absurd.
    First of all, the intell guys make calls like this, not operational commanders, although operational commanders, of course, talk to intell. And we have a ton of retired three and four star generals. Who else is making predictions like this? (Actual answer -- some of the hawks in Russia disgusted with Russian military performance.) I'd be more impressed if someone like Adm. Jim Stavridis was pushing this line. He's a former NATO chief and very well plugged in.

    Anyway, from Hodges' lips to God's ears.

  11. #1131
    Join Date
    Nov 2020
    Location
    Western NC

    Saint Javelin

    It hasn't been mentioned, so I thought I'd bring up Saint Javelin. In the past couple of months it has become a viral meme in the tubes of the internets.

    Very clever troll of the Russians per wikiwpedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Javelin and many other sites.

    It also has become a way to raise money to rebuild Ukraine.

    https://www.saintjavelin.com/

    Disclosure: I have no particular knowledge that this website is or isn't legit, but I am impressed with the effort. The WaPo and the the Stars and Stripes think it is legit https://www.stripes.com/theaters/eur...e-7375480.html

  12. #1132
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Militaries can manage their manpower problems in different ways. According to Ukrainian news reports, in the recent fighting in the Donetsk region Russian commanders threatened their troops with fire from rear “blocking units” if they tried to retreat. Look, it worked for Stalin in World War II.

    Also, according to a new law approved by the Russia State Duma, "voluntary surrender" will henceforth be punishable by imprisonment for up to 10 years, as will "evasion of military service by simulating illness." The latter assumes a "period of mobilization." Maybe the Duma is anticipating this.
    Last edited by swood1000; 09-20-2022 at 02:13 PM. Reason: Clarification

  13. #1133
    Quote Originally Posted by swood1000 View Post
    Militaries can manage their manpower problems in different ways. According to Ukrainian news reports, in the recent fighting in the Donetsk region Russian commanders threatened their troops with fire from rear “blocking units” if they tried to retreat. Look, it worked for Stalin in World War II.

    Also, according to a new law approved by the Russia State Duma, "voluntary surrender" will henceforth be punishable by imprisonment for up to 10 years, as will "evasion of military service by simulating illness." The latter assumes a "period of mobilization." Maybe the Duma is anticipating this.
    When your army has more to worry about the friendly guns behind them than the enemy guns in front of them, you might have some problems.

  14. #1134
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    When your army has more to worry about the friendly guns behind them than the enemy guns in front of them, you might have some problems.
    Well, that’s the question, isn’t it? Which guns do the Russian conscripts, sorry, troops need to worry about more?

    Personally, I’d take my chances with the folks at my back compared to the ones at my front who are hell bent on righteous vengeance, but then again I am not a Russian conscript/troop.

  15. #1135
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Napoleon also said he could not be stopped because “I can spend 30,000 lives a month.” .
    What a horrible statement!

  16. #1136
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Rougemont Nebulae
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    What a horrible statement!
    Putin's "Hold my beer" ain't much of an improvement.

  17. #1137
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBlue View Post
    Putin's "Hold my beer" ain't much of an improvement.
    Have you tried “Putin Huylo” beer?

  18. #1138
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Santa Cruz CA
    Quote Originally Posted by swood1000 View Post
    Militaries can manage their manpower problems in different ways. According to Ukrainian news reports, in the recent fighting in the Donetsk region Russian commanders threatened their troops with fire from rear “blocking units” if they tried to retreat. Look, it worked for Stalin in World War II.

    Also, according to a new law approved by the Russia State Duma, "voluntary surrender" will henceforth be punishable by imprisonment for up to 10 years, as will "evasion of military service by simulating illness." The latter assumes a "period of mobilization." Maybe the Duma is anticipating this.
    Well you were right. Putin announced mobilization today.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...on-Russia.html

    "Meanwhile a mixture of fear, anger, and dissent was spreading across Russian social media networks.
    Users even coined a new word - 'Mogilisation' from the Russian word 'mogila' or 'grave' - to describe the expected fate of those taken away to fight. "

  19. #1139
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Santa Cruz CA
    In other news, they have branched out beyond defenestration.
    https://www.the-sun.com/news/6269942...ussia-ukraine/

  20. #1140
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by BigWayne View Post
    In other news, they have branched out beyond defenestration.
    https://www.the-sun.com/news/6269942...ussia-ukraine/
    Since he fell down "several flights", I'm guessing it was more going over the railing in a tall stairwell. Maybe the building didn't have windows that would open.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

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