Russia & Ukraine

[bundabergdevil]

I guess I'm drawing a distinction between a "rational thinking" nut-job and a complete nut-job. One is guided by some weird principle they think is everything. The other is guided by nothing and might do anything.

OK, I can see that. He's just not going to be able to re-grab all the old Soviet republics...

That was my original point. He is rationale and strategic in pursuit of his goal, which we may all view as an irrational one. He clearly understands power dynamics, the power of (mis)information and has a vision for Russia we might not agree with but it's a vision. He is not an uncalculating or shoot-from-the-hip type of guy. Those guys are dangerous in their own way but Putin is strategic. That's more dangerous, methinks.

[budwom]

DBR is a wheel. Especially in light of our earlier discussion where we learned that William Henry Harrison didn't get enough minutes.

still...to mock a guy who is clearly a top 100 President of all time is a bridge too far for some...

[ClemmonsDevil]

still...to mock a guy who is clearly a top 100 President of all time is a bridge too far for some...

Since I'm not a high achiever I have a tendency to Discount the achievements of others.

[CameronBlue]

Since I'm not a high achiever I have a tendency to Discount the achievements of others.

I don't think you're utilizing the full potential of message board anonymity.

[ryetales]

mocking one of the greatest Vermont born President's in history could be considered an act of aggression!

But is it a punchable offense?

[PackMan97]

still...to mock a guy who is clearly a top 100 President of all time is a bridge too far for some...

You certainly undersell him. Easily top 50 and it's not even an argument.

[budwom]

You certainly undersell him. Easily top 50 and it's not even an argument.

people know I have a local bias, so I try to be cautious, but you're right, solid top 50 President.

[LasVegas]

It seems pretty clear that the answer when it comes to Ukraine is "nobody". The real question to ask now is how can his next step be stopped? Can the West stop him from taking Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan? Or Belarus and the Baltic States? Realistically, can he be stopped from re-incorporating the entire USSR?

Which is pretty wild, right? A sovereign nation being occupied against it’s will and no one steps up to the plate.

[Nepos]

Which is pretty wild, right? A sovereign nation being occupied against it’s will and no one steps up to the plate.

My biggest question at the moment is what China's next will be?

[ClemmonsDevil]

I don't think you're utilizing the full potential of message board anonymity.

If you were on the punchable thread you would be aware that I say just as crazy things to people's faces.

[wilson]

Any chance we could limit the William Henry Harrison, punchability, etc. conversations to other, more relevant threads? This isn't much of a joking matter, and there are a lot of posters here who have potentially valuable insights regarding the Ukraine situation, absent analysis of forgettable 19th century American politicians.
I love DBR humor as much as the next guy, but we have plenty of other places for it.

[bundabergdevil]

Not a surprise move but the Pentagon announced deployment of 7,000 troops to bases in Germany. This is a NATO defense deployment, not a 'going into Ukraine' deployment.

[duke74]

As someone who has read a lot on WW2 Europe and particularly the rise and fall of Nazi Germany, it looks familiar in really bad ways.

Agree. And I worry that the next movement will be by the PRC v Taiwan. Sharks sense blood in the water. Aggressors sense weakness in leadership.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Agree. And I worry that the next movement will be by the PRC v Taiwan. Sharks sense blood in the water. Aggressors sense weakness in leadership.

Some leaders have been playing the very very long game here, it seems.

[wilson]

Not a surprise move but the Pentagon announced deployment of 7,000 troops to bases in Germany. This is a NATO defense deployment, not a 'going into Ukraine' deployment.

Latest analysis seems to be suggesting that Putin would like to establish a contiguous territorial corridor through Belarus (as we've noted, presently de facto Russian soil) and up to Kaliningrad (the little Russian exclave on the Baltic). Such a move would involve seizing some measure of presence or control over Lithuanian or Polish territory (those are the two countries that sandwich Kaliningrad and separate it from Belarus). Since both Poland and Lithuania are NATO members, this deployment would seem to confirm the above suggestions.

In case anyone's unfamiliar, Kaliningrad is the little yellow sliver in between Lithuania and Poland:
Eastern Europe.jpg

Zoomed in here:
Baltic-States-Map-L.jpg

[dudog84]

I take Rubles too.

What, you don't have faith in the Hryvnia?

[niveklaen]

It sounds like no one has confidence in the Ukrainian's ability to bleed Russia with an insurgency.

[mph]

This.
Or stated alternatively, is Putin bold enough to challenge the West by invading a NATO state? That would put the postwar world order to, quite literally, its sternest test ever, and the answer is by no means clear or assured.

I have a hard time seeing Putin invading a NATO member, in large part because I agree with those saying Putin is a rational actor. To the degree it was possible, he's been sanction-proofing the Russian economy since he annexed Crimea in 2014. He also knows that neither America nor any European ally cares about Ukraine enough to risk military confrontation with Russia. I can't recall a single American politician, now or in the past, declaring Ukraine a vital strategic interest. It's much riskier for Putin to make the calculation that we will ignore our Article 5 obligation to protect NATO members.

I also don't see compelling evidence for the view that Putin is trying to reconstitute the USSR. It's not a realistic outcome and its not a required outcome if his goal is to let the West know the Russia will not be treated like a second-rate power. I'm not going to pretend to know how this ends, but one realistic scenario involves Russia annexing the Donbas region, installing a compliant leader in Kyiv, and declaring victory. The show of force would likely be enough to end Western discussions of another round of NATO expansion and Putin gets to domestically sell himself as the guy who stopped the West from bullying Russia. That's a lot more plausible than Russia rolling tanks into the Baltics, Poland, Hungary, or Romania.

Having said all of that, there are still a lot of ways this invasion could spin out of control. Would love to hear other's thoughts, but I don't see a better option than our current strategy--sanction Russia to impose our available non-military consequences and increase readiness on NATO's eastern flank.

[CameronBornAndBred]

During his press conference today, Biden was peppered with questions regarding kicking Russia out of SWIFT. I really had no idea what this was, and why it was such a big deal. Apparently it's a very big deal, so much so that if it were to happen, Putin has signaled that he will take it as an act of war level aggression.

I found this article helpful in getting me on board with understanding what it is and what's at stake.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/s...ssia-rcna17533

[mph]

During his press conference today, Biden was peppered with questions regarding kicking Russia out of SWIFT. I really had no idea what this was, and why it was such a big deal. Apparently it's a very big deal, so much so that if it were to happen, Putin has signaled that he will take it as an act of war level aggression.

I found this article helpful in getting me on board with understanding what it is and what's at stake.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/s...ssia-rcna17533

At a minimum, we would see cyberattacks from Russia the likes of which we have never seen. Imagine the chaos of the Colonial Pipeline but with our water supply, electrical grid, and banking system. I haven't seen anything that makes me confident our cyber defenses are up to the challenge.