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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    Raleigh,NC
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Who is there to stop him? Over the past 20 years the US has really hollowed out our forces in Europe and none of the European countries really have much in the way of a serious military. They have some good equipment, but not nearly enough.

    Not that I think Russia will continue outside of Ukraine. They'll pause and take another bite in a few more years.
    Someone has to stop him. Who will it be? No clue.

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by LasVegas View Post
    Someone has to stop him. Who will it be? No clue.
    It seems pretty clear that the answer when it comes to Ukraine is "nobody". The real question to ask now is how can his next step be stopped? Can the West stop him from taking Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan? Or Belarus and the Baltic States? Realistically, can he be stopped from re-incorporating the entire USSR?

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by ClemmonsDevil View Post
    Thinking about that gives me Chester A Arthuritis.
    Dude. that almost looks like a pun to me.

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by aimo View Post
    Dude. that almost looks like a pun to me.
    Simpsons reference. Not the same.

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    It seems pretty clear that the answer when it comes to Ukraine is "nobody". The real question to ask now is how can his next step be stopped? Can the West stop him from taking Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan? Or Belarus and the Baltic States? Realistically, can he be stopped from re-incorporating the entire USSR?
    As a genealogy nerd with Lithuanian heritage, this bothers me greatly. I did not even know I had Lithuanian heritage for a long time b/c all the census records had my great-greats as born in RUSSIA. Damn those communists!

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    It seems pretty clear that the answer when it comes to Ukraine is "nobody". The real question to ask now is how can his next step be stopped? Can the West stop him from taking Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan? Or Belarus and the Baltic States? Realistically, can he be stopped from re-incorporating the entire USSR?
    This.
    Or stated alternatively, is Putin bold enough to challenge the West by invading a NATO state? That would put the postwar world order to, quite literally, its sternest test ever, and the answer is by no means clear or assured.

  7. #47
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by ClemmonsDevil View Post
    Simpsons reference. Not the same.
    It may be a punchable offense.

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New Jersey
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Could not give Sporkz.
    That's OK, I'm pretty sure I owe all of my other Sporkz to you
    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    This.
    Or stated alternatively, is Putin bold enough to challenge the West by invading a NATO state? That would put the postwar world order to, quite literally, its sternest test ever, and the answer is by no means clear or assured.
    That's the question. Ostensibly he has free reign to do whatever he would like in non-nato countries. We aren't going to war for that. This all comes down to how Brazen is he? It's why this is so dangerous. There's no real way to act against him at this point. The only thing you can do is react to him.

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by Rich View Post
    That's OK, I'm pretty sure I owe all of my other Sporkz to you
    I can't spork you either. Now that's only because I don't want to and not because I have too frequently. Just kidding. Must spread comments. It was definitely Spork Worthy.

  11. #51
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    This.
    Or stated alternatively, is Putin bold enough to challenge the West by invading a NATO state? That would put the postwar world order to, quite literally, its sternest test ever, and the answer is by no means clear or assured.
    Actually, I probably overstated. I don't think Putin would challenge NATO itself, and therefore probably wouldn't try to take the Baltics, at least not before a whole lot of prep work that the 70-year-old leader of a heavily sanctioned nation probably doesn't have the time or pocketbook for. But my question still stands when it comes to Belarus and the Northern Caucasus. Azserbaijan is still a pretty big net energy producer, and it could be an important source of income if re-incorporated into Russia directly. On the other hand, just yesterday they declared themselves to be "allies" with Russia, so maybe that step isn't even necessary?

    I'm no expert in foreign affairs, that's for sure. I'm just musing random stuff out loud.

  12. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    It seems pretty clear that the answer when it comes to Ukraine is "nobody". The real question to ask now is how can his next step be stopped? Can the West stop him from taking Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan? Or Belarus and the Baltic States? Realistically, can he be stopped from re-incorporating the entire USSR?
    I don't think he invades Belarus. They have a pro-Russia government (to the point, I'd call them a puppet state). I believe that Russia has permanent military bases in Belarus. I doubt he digs the hole deeper by officially annexing them when he has just as much control now as he would if annexed.

  13. #53
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New Jersey
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I don't think he invades Belarus. They have a pro-Russia government (to the point, I'd call them a puppet state). I believe that Russia has permanent military bases in Belarus. I doubt he digs the hole deeper by officially annexing them when he has just as much control now as he would if annexed.
    I have no idea what the man is thinking, but I suspect this sort of set up is what he'd be content with in Ukraine. They don't necessarily need to redraw maps if he has control the same way he has in Belarus.
    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

  14. #54
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by Rich View Post
    I have no idea what the man is thinking, but I suspect this sort of set up is what he'd be content with in Ukraine. They don't necessarily need to redraw maps if he has control the same way he has in Belarus.
    Furthermore, he benefits from such an arrangement insofar as it allows him to claim that these satellite states are still sovereign nations, irrespective of how truly independent their leadership might be.

  15. #55
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Annandale, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    I think the inevitable economic instability is actually an intended part of Putin's strategy. For example, the more that markets go haywire and inflation rises, the more likely a second Trump presidency becomes, and Putin would love that.
    Exactly what I was going to say. It is amazing to me hearing talking heads saying that people in Ukraine canít get their heads around what Putin hopes to accomplish. He wants to weaken the US. Oh, and Ukraine also has a lot of mineral resources which will be critical in the electrified economy of the future.

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I don't think he invades Belarus. They have a pro-Russia government (to the point, I'd call them a puppet state). I believe that Russia has permanent military bases in Belarus. I doubt he digs the hole deeper by officially annexing them when he has just as much control now as he would if annexed.
    Yep. The Russian forces that just took control of Chernobyl had been staged in Belarus. The dictator there is very much an ally of Russia and an avowed Marxist.

  17. #57
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by TrickDribbles99 View Post
    Yep. The Russian forces that just took control of Chernobyl had been staged in Belarus. The dictator there is very much an ally of Russia and an avowed Marxist.
    At least part of Moldova (especially the part bordering the Black Sea, just adjacent to Ukraine's southwest) can also be described in such terms.

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by ClemmonsDevil View Post
    Thinking about that gives me Chester A Arthuritis.
    mocking one of the greatest Vermont born President's in history could be considered an act of aggression!

  19. #59
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont

    sobering thoughts from analysts in Russia

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/w...36d9faca7e174a

    evidently the invasion shocked a lot of analysts in Russia who thought this was only going to be a bluff...some good reading there.

  20. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    mocking one of the greatest Vermont born President's in history could be considered an act of aggression!
    DBR is a wheel. Especially in light of our earlier discussion where we learned that William Henry Harrison didn't get enough minutes.

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