Russia & Ukraine

[JNort]

I just found out there is a decent group of people (Mostly those Q people) who don’t think Russia has invaded Ukraine and all the videos are “crisis actors”. Sadly I found out because my brother and some coworkers somehow believe it. Not sure how this even took root.

[FUBARDoorBuster]

I just found out there is a decent group of people (Mostly those Q people) who don’t think Russia has invaded Ukraine and all the videos are “crisis actors”. Sadly I found out because my brother and some coworkers somehow believe it. Not sure how this even took root.

I put up a post about this a few days ago, Thursday, but it did not make the cut. I was a little snarky so maybe the mods thought best not to include it.
But the battle is for Truth. Russia has been playing the long game and has made nice with a certain segment of our society through multiple inroads well before the election of 2016.
Admiration for Putin has been high in certain segments of our populus for almost a decade and this propaganda has had its intended effect.

I had specific instances/references in my previous post, but maybe my conclusions were a bit overboard. I thought I was pointing out the historical path that got us here.

I saw an interview with a Russian-heritage, Russian-speaking woman in Kharkiv, who said she called her parents in Russia, to tell them that she was safe despite the bombings from the Russian army. Her own parents would not believe her because Russian TV said there was no bombings in that town. I usually put links up to my references, but that seems beyond the point, in these times.

[camion]

I just found out there is a decent group of people (Mostly those Q people) who don’t think Russia has invaded Ukraine and all the videos are “crisis actors”. Sadly I found out because my brother and some coworkers somehow believe it. Not sure how this even took root.

I'm sure you can find it on the interwebs. You just have to pick the right part to hang out in.

The filmmakers have undoubtedly upgraded their video technology in the half century since they faked the moon landing so they might just be using CGI and not even bothering with actors, but I would become suspicious if the Ukraine footage included dragons.

[swood1000]

Very good a comprehensive summary of Russian/Ukraine conflict dynamic. Most has been covered in this thread.

https://youtu.be/If61baWF4GE

That was a great explanation! It’s also available as a podcast from RealLifeLore called “Why Russia is Invading Ukraine,” but the graphics on YouTube are definitely worthwhile. I didn’t realize how important a role oil and gas have played in these events, especially since 2012. That could at least partially explain why all the world concern seen here was absent when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 (using the same approach as they did in Ukraine – by coming to the aid of two “breakaway” sections of the country). Here are some facts that seem particularly relevant:
 

• In 2012 approximately 2 trillion cubic meters of natural gas were discovered in Ukraine’s exclusive economic zone within the Black Sea, with the largest reserves concentrated around the Crimean peninsula.

• Shale oil deposits were found in Ukraine in the east around Donetsk and Kharkiv, and in the west around the Carpathian Mountains. Techniques to extract oil from shale were perfected in the early 2010’s.

• By 2012 it had become clear that Ukraine had the world’s 14^th largest reserves of natural gas, and they partnered with Shell and Exxon to extract it. Within years these western companies could help Ukraine become Europe’s second petrostate, making it a major threat to Russia’s source of revenue and power. If Germany could just get its gas from Ukraine the political situation in the region would change dramatically.

• By taking Crimea in 2014 Russia also took an estimated 80% of Ukraine’s offshore oil and gas reserves. They also took billions of dollars of drilling equipment and other assets in Crimea, crippling Ukraine’s future potential to challenge Russia’s primary source of wealth and power. Russia also regained control over their most geostrategically valuable port, Sevastopol in Crimea.

• Large portions of Ukraine’s shale reserves lie within the Donbass region. After Russia asserted authority over both Donbass and Crimea, Shell and Exxon backed out of their contracts with Ukraine, leaving them with no capacity to extract the resources themselves.

• Crimea gets 85% of its water from a canal leading from the Dnieper River in Ukraine. After the Russians took Crimea in 2014 Ukraine stopped sending water down the canal. Since then, Crimea has been slowly drying out, causing Russia to have to spend billions of dollars a year to prop it up.

• NATO has a rule that no country with a current territorial dispute may join NATO until the dispute has been settled peacefully, so by asserting territorial claims Russia (a) took control over valuable resources, (b) kept Ukraine from becoming an energy competitor, and (c) kept Ukraine out of NATO.

Major oil and gas deposits in black:

UkraineGas2012b.jpg

[Skydog]

That was a great explanation! It’s also available as a podcast from RealLifeLore called “Why Russia is Invading Ukraine,” but the graphics on YouTube are definitely worthwhile. I didn’t realize how important a role oil and gas have played in these events, especially since 2012. That could at least partially explain why all the world concern seen here was absent when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 (using the same approach as they did in Ukraine – by coming to the aid of two “breakaway” sections of the country). Here are some facts that seem particularly relevant:
 

• In 2012 approximately 2 trillion cubic meters of natural gas were discovered in Ukraine’s exclusive economic zone within the Black Sea, with the largest reserves concentrated around the Crimean peninsula.

• Shale oil deposits were found in Ukraine in the east around Donetsk and Kharkiv, and in the west around the Carpathian Mountains. Techniques to extract oil from shale were perfected in the early 2010’s.

• By 2012 it had become clear that Ukraine had the world’s 14^th largest reserves of natural gas, and they partnered with Shell and Exxon to extract it. Within years these western companies could help Ukraine become Europe’s second petrostate, making it a major threat to Russia’s source of revenue and power. If Germany could just get its gas from Ukraine the political situation in the region would change dramatically.

• By taking Crimea in 2014 Russia also took an estimated 80% of Ukraine’s offshore oil and gas reserves. They also took billions of dollars of drilling equipment and other assets in Crimea, crippling Ukraine’s future potential to challenge Russia’s primary source of wealth and power. Russia also regained control over their most geostrategically valuable port, Sevastopol in Crimea.

• Large portions of Ukraine’s shale reserves lie within the Donbass region. After Russia asserted authority over both Donbass and Crimea, Shell and Exxon backed out of their contracts with Ukraine, leaving them with no capacity to extract the resources themselves.

• Crimea gets 85% of its water from a canal leading from the Dnieper River in Ukraine. After the Russians took Crimea in 2014 Ukraine stopped sending water down the canal. Since then, Crimea has been slowly drying out, causing Russia to have to spend billions of dollars a year to prop it up.

• NATO has a rule that no country with a current territorial dispute may join NATO until the dispute has been settled peacefully, so by asserting territorial claims Russia (a) took control over valuable resources, (b) kept Ukraine from becoming an energy competitor, and (c) kept Ukraine out of NATO.

Major oil and gas deposits in black:

UkraineGas2012b.jpg

Great post. This explains so much, including why Putin thought the blowback was worth it in the long, long run.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I just found out there is a decent group of people (Mostly those Q people) who don’t think Russia has invaded Ukraine and all the videos are “crisis actors”. Sadly I found out because my brother and some coworkers somehow believe it. Not sure how this even took root.

That seed was planted about 6 years ago.

[mph]

That seed was planted about 6 years ago.

Earlier, but I take your point.

[PackMan97]

On a slightly worrisome note...the gas Neon is used in semiconductor manufacturing.

50% of the worldwide supply is refined in Odessa, including 90% of the US's supply.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neon#Production

[CameronBornAndBred]

On a slightly worrisome note...the gas Neon is used in semiconductor manufacturing.

50% of the worldwide supply is refined in Odessa, including 90% of the US's supply.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neon#Production

LED Revolution!

[Ultrarunner]

On a slightly worrisome note...the gas Neon is used in semiconductor manufacturing.

50% of the worldwide supply is refined in Odessa, including 90% of the US's supply.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neon#Production

Not to be a debbie-downer but we are facing all manner of shortages, from fertilizer and food to lithium and aluminum. Ukraine, along with China, Hungry, Argentina, and a host of others have restricted or banned grain exports. Life is about to get most unpleasant and expensive.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Not to be a debbie-downer but we are facing all manner of shortages, from fertilizer and food to lithium and aluminum. Ukraine, along with China, Hungry, Argentina, and a host of others have restricted or banned grain exports. Life is about to get most unpleasant and expensive.

It's clear why Hungary is hungry.

[-jk]

Please keep domestic politics out of this discussion.

-jk

[Ultrarunner]

It's clear why Hungary is hungry.

I was hungry when I typed it?

[TrickDribbles99]

Please keep domestic politics out of this discussion.

-jk

Doing my best, or so I thought? Nothing inflammatory, inaccurate or wankerizerable. I can see what level of domestic reference is okay by the posts that stay up and had assumed I was well within bounds. Apologies.

[PackMan97]

Not to be a debbie-downer but we are facing all manner of shortages, from fertilizer and food to lithium and aluminum. Ukraine, along with China, Hungry, Argentina, and a host of others have restricted or banned grain exports. Life is about to get most unpleasant and expensive.

2020 sucked with the COVID
2021 doubled down with Delta
2022 says, "hold my beer! I have Putin!"

*sigh*

[dudog84]

Not to be a debbie-downer but we are facing all manner of shortages, from fertilizer and food to lithium and aluminum. Ukraine, along with China, Hungry, Argentina, and a host of others have restricted or banned grain exports. Life is about to get most unpleasant and expensive.

Not nearly as unpleasant as it is for Ukranians.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Not nearly as unpleasant as it is for Ukranians.

Exactly. I think people struggle with perspective.

[aimo]

Not nearly as unpleasant as it is for Ukranians.

Exactly. I think people struggle with perspective.

I had to turn the news off last night b/c I was getting so upset from the stories of families and kids.

[PackMan97]

https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/s...86096837849099

Russian Embassy, UK
@RussianEmbassy

Russia government organization
FM #Lavrov: The goal of Russia’s special military operation is to stop any war that could take place on Ukrainian territory or that could start from there.

[dudog84]

https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/s...86096837849099

So they've read 1984. Was that statement put out by the Ministry of Peace or the Ministry of Truth?