Russia & Ukraine

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

I’m not sure how many Americans are paying attention to this war. Yet, I am struck by what is bring shown. Unlike wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, this war shows a modern looking country with people who look like a lot of us. I am not making a racist statement, but there is no doubt in our society a lot of people pay more attention when victims look more like them, dress like them, and worship the same God.

I think our leaders failed when they unilaterally ruled out ground troops before Putin invaded. I am not saying we should have ground troops, just that all options should have been on the table. If Putin has gone mad, this probably made no difference. As Ukrainians are being praised for their bravery and patriotism, I wonder if more Americans will be willing to be more involved in this war. On the other hand maybe we are more concerned about high gas prices than women, children and men being murdered by Putin in Ukraine.

All of us should be concerned what a wounded Putin might do. I pray the generals in Russia are talking behind his back to remove him before he could destroy the world as we know it.

[bundabergdevil]

Mitt Romney just called Putin a 'small, evil, feral-eyed man'. I know we're supposed to leave domestic commentary to the side but that was pretty cool, Mitt.

[PackMan97]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...e5a2f936725550

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — In a dramatic escalation of East-West tensions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian nuclear forces put on high alert Sunday in response to what he called “aggressive statements” by leading NATO powers.

The directive to put Russia’s nuclear weapons in an increased state of readiness for launch raised fears that the crisis could boil over into nuclear warfare, whether by design or mistake.

This is the first war of aggression by a nuclear power, in history.

[budwom]

Mitt Romney just called Putin a 'small, evil, feral-eyed man'. I know we're supposed to leave domestic commentary to the side but that was pretty cool, Mitt.

Maureen Dowd noted VLad's puffy botoxed face, Nikita Khruschev's daughter referred to him as a man who is five foot six and thinks he's five foot seven.

Like others, I wonder what the Garks are thinking right now. Their pact with Vlad has been that they're free to make gobs of money as they see fit, as long as they 1) give Vlad a cut, and 2) stay out of politics, and as such they think Vlad is just fine.
How will they respond if this hits them hard in the ruble/dollar pocket.

[mph]

Responding to the bolded above:
If.
Not yet.

Also, there’s “taking” Kyiv and then there’s figuring out what to do with it after you take it. Setting up a stable puppet regime is likely to be much harder than Putin calculated. This doesn’t appear to be a win-win for Russia or Putin. There are many ways Putin and Russia could end up losing.

For one thing the $2 billion in pass through pipeline revenue is a drop in the bucket compared to the sanctions already imposed. Then there’s Russia’s war costs which will also be substantial. Finally, the cost of propping up a puppet regime (if that’s even possible) will likely make $2 billion/year seem like a bargain.

[Section 15]

Behind a paywall -

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...-central-bank/

Apparently some EU members, especially Germany, were reluctant to impose the SWIFT sanctions in even a limited manner until the Ukrainian President addressed them in a teleconference. Here is how the WaPo describes it:

In just five minutes, Zelensky — speaking from the battlefields of Kyiv — pleaded with European leaders for an honest assessment of his country’s ambition to join the EU and for genuine help in its fight with the Russian invaders. Food, ammunition, fuel, sanctions — Ukraine needed its European neighbors to step up with all of it.

“It was extremely, extremely emotional,” said a European official briefed on the call. “He was essentially saying: ‘Look, we are here dying for European ideals.”

Before disconnecting the video call, Zelensky told the gathering matter-of-factly that it might be the last time they saw him alive, according to a senior E.U. official who was present.

After that came the SWIFT sanctions, the German (and others) offer of stingers and javelins. That guy is pretty impressive.

Section 15

[Wheat/"/"/"]

On twitter, there is a fascinating discussion going on between @jasonPlowery (Major, US Space force, US National Defense Fellow,MIT) and Wyoming senator @CynthiaMLummis regarding the actions of using SWIFT and potential Russian responses…

I don’t know how to link it but you can check it out on my twitter feed if interested….@sandy_melvin1

[tommy]

is the reported escalation of nuclear forces possibly a play by Putin for what he thinks is leverage during the negotiations? or separate of that?

Feels to me like a teenager yelling at his parents that "I'm gonna kill myself if you don't let me go out with my friends!"

Scare tactic. Tantrum. No substance to it.

[Wander]

These days, I'm remembering two things my high school history teacher said. They both seemed ridiculous to me at the time.

"It's one of the small miracles of recent history that the breakup of the Soviet Union didn't result in large wars... but maybe it's still coming."

"So far, nuclear weapons have been a great deterrent and force for global peace... but if they continue to exist in large quantities, one day, someone, somehow, sometime will use one."

So many things that were once unthinkable started becoming very possible from about 5 years ago onward. I take very few things for granted now. That saying about how each generation has to fight for freedom, it's not automatic... sort of corny, but very true.

[swood1000]

In a Russian poll taken in late November, half (50%) of respondents believed that the initiator of the escalation of the situation in the east of Ukraine was the United States and other NATO countries. 16% thought that the initiator of the escalation was Ukraine, 3% - the unrecognized republics of the DPR and LPR, 4% - Russia. But at the same time, 80% of Russians see the West as a “friend”, with only 3% naming it a “foe”. According to a CNN Poll carried out February 7-15, half of Russians said it would be right to use military force to keep Ukraine out of NATO, and 36% approved of military force being used against Ukraine to force it to join Russia (with 43% opposed and 21% unsure). 75% thought that Russia would not invade Ukraine. Hard to say how images of Kyiv getting flattened will impact Russian public opinion. So far, Putin seems to be going strong:
RussianPublicOpinion.jpg
Also, it's difficult to evaluate the reliability of Russian polls, even if done by a reputable pollster.

[Rich]

Also, it's difficult to evaluate the reliability of Russian polls, even if done by a reputable pollster.

I think it's easy to evaluate the reliability of Russian polls. Russian citizens have all sorts of disincentives about telling the truth.

[wilson]

I think it's easy to evaluate the reliability of Russian polls. Russian citizens have all sorts of disincentives about telling the truth.

Exactly. I place no trust in the veracity of any Russian public opinion polling, irrespective of who administered the poll.

[swood1000]

I think it's easy to evaluate the reliability of Russian polls. Russian citizens have all sorts of disincentives about telling the truth.

I guess the question is how much of it is fear of giving an honest opinion and how much of it is a result of misinformation in the Russian press. In the latter case it does represent true Russian public opinion.

[dudog84]

Good summary of how badly Putin has miscalculated. He has certainly unified NATO, Sweden and Finland are thinking of joining after decades of neutrality, and the somewhat autocratic members Turkey and Hungary are angry. Heck, even Switzerland is getting involved. Seems like war is not good for business.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...PN1?li=BBnb7Kz

[swood1000]

I guess the question is how much of it is fear of giving an honest opinion and how much of it is a result of misinformation in the Russian press. In the latter case it does represent true Russian public opinion.

Speaking of which, Russia's communications regulator, Roskomnadzor, has forbidden the Russian press from describing Moscow's attack on Ukraine as an "assault, invasion, or declaration of war," since this constitutes "unreliable socially significant untrue information." The offense is punishable by a fine of up to five million rubles ($60,000). Trying to restrict this information sounds like a losing proposition to me.

[Jeffrey]

Speaking of which, Russia's communications regulator, Roskomnadzor, has forbidden the Russian press from describing Moscow's attack on Ukraine as an "assault, invasion, or declaration of war," since this constitutes "unreliable socially significant untrue information." The offense is punishable by a fine of up to five million rubles ($60,000). Trying to restrict this information sounds like a losing proposition to me.

It sounds like communism to me.

[cspan37421]

It sounds like communism to me.

First thing that came to my mind was Streisand Effect.

[dudog84]

For the history majors and teachers on the board:

274751593_494629628710201_3244657082127827936_n.jpg

[FUBARDoorBuster]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...e5a2f936725550



This is the first war of aggression by a nuclear power, in history.

...but by the horrible measure of the 21st century, is this the first time that a country with McDonalds has attacked another country with McDonalds?
Isn't this a horrible question? and a horrible measure?

[ClemmonsDevil]

For the history majors and teachers on the board:

274751593_494629628710201_3244657082127827936_n.jpg

Ain't that the truth.