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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA

    Russia & Ukraine

    Things are really kicking off there. Seems to me that Putin wants to essentially hollow Ukraine out and pull the strings on a pro-Kremlin puppet, while driving out would-be resistance and seizing territory and natural resources.
    I refrained from any tongue-in-cheek "World War III Vigil" labels here, because it's not funny and, to this historian's eyes, not at all out of the question (not necessarily likely, but also not off the table).

  2. #2
    As someone who has read a lot on WW2 Europe and particularly the rise and fall of Nazi Germany, it looks familiar in really bad ways.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    As someone who has read a lot on WW2 Europe and particularly the rise and fall of Nazi Germany, it looks familiar in really bad ways.
    WWI as well.
    The way that Putin is resting territorial claims on ethno-nationalism bears striking parallels to the Balkans being caught in between Russia and Austria-Hungary in the early 20th century, and to ethnic Germans in the Sudetenland in the 1930s.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Lynchburg, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    As someone who has read a lot on WW2 Europe and particularly the rise and fall of Nazi Germany, it looks familiar in really bad ways.
    Indeed, making it ironic that is Putin is using denazification as one of his pretexts for invasion.

    There are so many ways this could go sideways. Very dangerous times. In a best case scenarioówith no escalation beyond the borders of Ukraineóthereís substantial global economic risk.

    Oh, and just when it looks like we are on the cusp of putting the worst of the pandemic behind us we get this kick in the pants.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by mph View Post
    Indeed, making it ironic that is Putin is using denazification as one of his pretexts for invasion.

    There are so many ways this could go sideways. Very dangerous times. In a best case scenarioówith no escalation beyond the borders of Ukraineóthereís substantial global economic risk.

    Oh, and just when it looks like we are on the cusp of putting the worst of the pandemic behind us we get this kick in the pants.
    I think the inevitable economic instability is actually an intended part of Putin's strategy. For example, the more that markets go haywire and inflation rises, the more likely a second Trump presidency becomes, and Putin would love that.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Annandale, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    I think the inevitable economic instability is actually an intended part of Putin's strategy. For example, the more that markets go haywire and inflation rises, the more likely a second Trump presidency becomes, and Putin would love that.
    Exactly what I was going to say. It is amazing to me hearing talking heads saying that people in Ukraine canít get their heads around what Putin hopes to accomplish. He wants to weaken the US. Oh, and Ukraine also has a lot of mineral resources which will be critical in the electrified economy of the future.

  7. #7

    End Game ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    As someone who has read a lot on WW2 Europe and particularly the rise and fall of Nazi Germany, it looks familiar in really bad ways.
    I have read some and the parallels are scary. The end game of the rise of Nazi Germany was WW2. What ia the end game here?

    I don't see sanctions on Putin working at all or any other economic measure. According to CNN the Russian stock market has crashed and the ruble is at a record low, which I think he had to know would happen. He has prepared his people that this is something they must do for their future safety. I don't think the West can just let him have Ukraine and also doubt if he will be satisfied with it. Russia moving into a NATO country invites WW3.

    Very very scary to me. I wish I could be optimistic but find it hard here.

    SoCal

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    As someone who has read a lot on WW2 Europe and particularly the rise and fall of Nazi Germany, it looks familiar in really bad ways.
    I concur. Some very significant similarities.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Forest Hills, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    As someone who has read a lot on WW2 Europe and particularly the rise and fall of Nazi Germany, it looks familiar in really bad ways.
    Agree. And I worry that the next movement will be by the PRC v Taiwan. Sharks sense blood in the water. Aggressors sense weakness in leadership.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by duke74 View Post
    Agree. And I worry that the next movement will be by the PRC v Taiwan. Sharks sense blood in the water. Aggressors sense weakness in leadership.
    Some leaders have been playing the very very long game here, it seems.

  11. #11
    Probably an empty gesture for me to say so on a message board, but I pray for the people in harmís way. War is awful, full stop, and I fear we are about to see some horrifying death and destruction.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Matches View Post
    Probably an empty gesture for me to say so on a message board, but I pray for the people in harmís way. War is awful, full stop, and I fear we are about to see some horrifying death and destruction.
    Some of my closest coworkers are Ukrainian (one actually lives there and works remote). Definitely a scary time for them. Not much the rest of us can do besides offer gestures of support. Feels very surreal.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Vlad is still despondent over the breakup of the Soviet Union...he felt it was an absolute tragedy...so anything he can do to reconstitute the old USSR works for him. Unfortunately, he's a guy with a lot of military power and essentially NO domestic brakes on his behavior, so ti's difficult to tell what comes next. Grabbing Ukraine seems to be a fait accompli...not sure how he will react to heavy sanctions, since he's been hoarding his oil money for just such an occasion.
    Don't put it past time to have his minions hack U.S. banks, hospitals (they whacked our hospital last year), even power grids...he's angry and not entirely rational.

    Some of the network imbeciles seem to focus on gas prices. This issue is going to impact a whole lot more than gas prices.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    Vlad is still despondent over the breakup of the Soviet Union...he felt it was an absolute tragedy...so anything he can do to reconstitute the old USSR works for him. Unfortunately, he's a guy with a lot of military power and essentially NO domestic brakes on his behavior, so ti's difficult to tell what comes next. Grabbing Ukraine seems to be a fait accompli...not sure how he will react to heavy sanctions, since he's been hoarding his oil money for just such an occasion.
    Don't put it past time to have his minions hack U.S. banks, hospitals (they whacked our hospital last year), even power grids...he's angry and not entirely rational.

    Some of the network imbeciles seem to focus on gas prices. This issue is going to impact a whole lot more than gas prices.
    I actually think heís very rationale, which is what makes him extremely dangerous. Itís just that his North Star against which his rationality is guided is not the same as that for you or me.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    I actually think heís very rationale, which is what makes him extremely dangerous. Itís just that his North Star against which his rationality is guided is not the same as that for you or me.
    THIS. I agree with Susan Glasser, who co-wrote "Kremlin Rising":

    ďVladimir Putin is in a war with history. He is establishing what he sees as his legacy as the great restorer of Russia. He came to power more than two decades ago with a campaign theme that might be familiar here in the United States, which was essentially ĎMake Russia Great Again.í And in his view Russia was a great empire and empire needs territory and it needs breathing space, to use a horrifying echo of 20th century European wars. And Vladimir Putin is the restorerÖ.He wants to be Vlad the Great and this is his bid for immortality.Ē

    Where Putin goes from here is anyone's guess. But I have to believe he'll keep pushing until someone stops him.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    THIS. I agree with Susan Glasser, who co-wrote "Kremlin Rising":

    ďVladimir Putin is in a war with history. He is establishing what he sees as his legacy as the great restorer of Russia. He came to power more than two decades ago with a campaign theme that might be familiar here in the United States, which was essentially ĎMake Russia Great Again.í And in his view Russia was a great empire and empire needs territory and it needs breathing space, to use a horrifying echo of 20th century European wars. And Vladimir Putin is the restorerÖ.He wants to be Vlad the Great and this is his bid for immortality.Ē

    Where Putin goes from here is anyone's guess. But I have to believe he'll keep pushing until someone stops him.
    I don't think I'd call that rational thinking, because he isn't going to be able to do that...but I agree that's what he wants.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I don't think I'd call that rational thinking, because he isn't going to be able to do that...but I agree that's what he wants.
    I guess I'm drawing a distinction between a "rational thinking" nut-job and a complete nut-job. One is guided by some weird principle they think is everything. The other is guided by nothing and might do anything.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    I guess I'm drawing a distinction between a "rational thinking" nut-job and a complete nut-job. One is guided by some weird principle they think is everything. The other is guided by nothing and might do anything.
    OK, I can see that. He's just not going to be able to re-grab all the old Soviet republics...

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    OK, I can see that. He's just not going to be able to re-grab all the old Soviet republics...
    I would assume the two he wants are Ukraine and Georgia.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New Jersey
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    OK, I can see that. He's just not going to be able to re-grab all the old Soviet republics...
    I believe this is the correct link:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/o...-invasion.html
    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

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