Russia & Ukraine

[Section 15]

In other news, they have branched out beyond defenestration.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/6269942...ussia-ukraine/

The scientist received injuries incompatible with life.


Now that's a euphemism you don't see every day.

[swood1000]

Apparently, a referendum has been planned in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and other regions to take place on September 26 and 27 to see whether the residents would like their land to become part of Russia. Since the Kremlin’s goal is simply to reunite two peoples (and to threaten to use nuclear weapons to defend the motherland, including newly acquired portions), I have no doubt that they will be shocked to find out what a financial bonanza this would be for them. For example:
 

• Natural gas - the recently discovered Yuzivska Shale Gas Field lies within this region, which holds Europe’s third largest shale gas reserves. When Russia took over Crimea it also took over between 92 and 500 billion cubic meters of natural gas reserves in the Black Sea, along with Ukraine’s state energy conglomerate and billions of dollars of equipment.
• Coal - Ukraine has the world’s 7th largest and Europe’s 2nd largest coal reserves, 92% of which is in the Donbas.
• Lithium - Ukraine’s abundant Lithium fields are concentrated in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Kirovohrad. Newly-discovered deposits in the eastern region may hold as much as 500,000 tons of lithium oxide, which in April was selling at $77 per kilo. Most of this is in the Donbas. According to the IMF the market for lithium could quadruple in the next 15 years.
• Iron - Ukraine has 10% of the world’s iron ore reserves, 2.5 billion tons of which is in the huge Belozersky iron ore district in Zaporizhzhia.
• Manganese - Ukraine has the largest reserves of manganese ores in Europe and the second largest in the world. The main reserves (about 2.28 billion tons) are concentrated in the south of Ukraine.
• Titanium - Ukraine has the largest reserves of titanium in Europe. 15 titanium deposits have been discovered in the country (4 of which are being developed). The deposits are located in the Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Donetsk regions.

Yuzivsk.jpg

[cato]

Since he fell down "several flights", I'm guessing it was more going over the railing in a tall stairwell. Maybe the building didn't have windows that would open.

If I were a Moscow real estate agent, I would be lining of listings of ranch style homes and cold calling Putin’s associates suggesting that a move to safer environments may be a good investment right about now.

[Jeffrey]

If I were a Moscow real estate agent, I would be lining of listings of ranch style homes and cold calling Putin’s associates suggesting that a move to safer environments may be a good investment right about now.

Then, there’s one less Moscow real estate agent.

[cato]

Then, there’s one less Moscow real estate agent.

Good point. I guess I can add “Moscow real estate agent” to my list of jobs I do not want, although further down the list than “Russian Conscript”.

[CameronBornAndBred]

If I were a Moscow real estate agent, I would be lining of listings of ranch style homes and cold calling Putin’s associates suggesting that a move to safer environments may be a good investment right about now.

Instead of buying a house in Moscow, it might be wiser to leave the country. But it might not be easier, and it might not be much cheaper if you wait.

In the past several hours, flights out of Moscow have skyrocketed in price, with some carriers charging as much as $16,000 a ticket to travel to Dubai. And that’s on one of the few flights still available: All planes to visa-free countries were completely sold out, according to the Russian news portal RBC.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-rus...195109346.html

[Skydog]

Sad that the whims of one man can cause so much misery, death and destruction. Shows the desperate need for political systems that don’t all concentrate power in one office. It’s almost like our forefathers had a point.

[aimo]

Sad that the whims of one man can cause so much misery, death and destruction. Shows the desperate need for political systems that don’t all concentrate power in one office. It’s almost like our forefathers had a point.

Yeah, just finished watching The US and the Holocaust last night. History repeating itself in too many ways.

[swood1000]

Yeah, just finished watching The US and the Holocaust last night. History repeating itself in too many ways.

History does seem to be repeating itself. In 1942 Gen. Friedrich Paulus asked Hitler for permission to withdraw his 6th army from Stalingrad to keep it from being surrounded. Hitler refused. The army, consisting of 265,000 Axis personnel, was surrounded, leading to Germany’s greatest defeat and the turning point in the war against Germany.

Now, according to the NYT, Putin has rejected requests from his commanders on the ground that they be allowed to retreat from the vital southern city of Kherson. Doing so would contradict the logic behind the referendum being held there and would further erode the popularity of the war at home, being the second major setback in one month.

“They’ve got units in there who, if the Ukrainians break through the lines, will be cut off and surrounded,” said Seth G. Jones, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I cannot overstate how dicey the situation is for them.”

[CameronBornAndBred]

Lost in the clouds of Ian, today was a very big day for these two countries, and the world is watching.

[CameronBlue]

The rhetoric between the United States and Russia and the no longer implied threat of nuclear war is getting disturbingly warm as Ukraine reportedly makes major advances in retaking occupied territory. An analyst on one of the new shows said she was told some years ago by an advisor to the Putin regime that when the Russian government falls it will fall in a day and it will be replaced by someone exactly the same: a strong armed ultra nationalist spouting rhetoric that captivates the masses.

Eta: analyst Julia Loffe

[mph]

The rhetoric between the United States and Russia and the no longer implied threat of nuclear war is getting disturbingly warm as Ukraine reportedly makes major advances in retaking occupied territory. An analyst on one of the new shows said she was told some years ago by an advisor to the Putin regime that when the Russian government falls it will fall in a day and it will be replaced by someone exactly the same: a strong armed ultra nationalist spouting rhetoric that captivates the masses.

Eta: analyst Julia Loffe

Yes, things have taken an ominous turn in the last 10 days. Russia’s annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia substantially increases the risk of escalation and NATO intervention, given his threat to use nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory. Yesterday, Putin called the West “enemies” and framed the war as an existential battle against Western elites.

It’s no longer hyperbole to say that Putin is in a battle for regime survival and he’s backed himself into a corner that makes a negotiated settlement impossible. Here’s a sobering breakdown from a political science professor at UC-SD. He makes a persuasive and worrisome case that the threat of tactical nuclear weapons is real.

[CameronBlue]

Yes, things have taken an ominous turn in the last 10 days. Russia’s annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia substantially increases the risk of escalation and NATO intervention, given his threat to use nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory. Yesterday, Putin called the West “enemies” and framed the war as an existential battle against Western elites.

It’s no longer hyperbole to say that Putin is in a battle for regime survival and he’s backed himself into a corner that makes a negotiated settlement impossible. Here’s a sobering breakdown from a political science professor at UC-SD. He makes a persuasive and worrisome case that the threat of tactical nuclear weapons is real.

"Tactical" is a bit of a misnomer isn't it? Yes tactical weapon yields can be less than "Little Boy" but can also be much greater, it's not a well-defined category. Further once that genie is out of the "bottle" (again) we're on the cusp of a nightmare scenario I don't wish to dream about. The is a real life "Deer Hunter", humanity is playing an insane game of Russian roulette...I can't believe we're back to this "one man holds the fate of the world in his hands" scenario again. It's mind-boggling.

[PackMan97]

Yes, things have taken an ominous turn in the last 10 days. Russia’s annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia substantially increases the risk of escalation and NATO intervention, given his threat to use nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory. Yesterday, Putin called the West “enemies” and framed the war as an existential battle against Western elites.

It’s no longer hyperbole to say that Putin is in a battle for regime survival and he’s backed himself into a corner that makes a negotiated settlement impossible. Here’s a sobering breakdown from a political science professor at UC-SD. He makes a persuasive and worrisome case that the threat of tactical nuclear weapons is real.

A negotiated settlement has always been impossible. Ukraine is not going to stop fighting unless someone makes them stop.

Putin is learning the world will not tolerate a nuclear armed bully to keep dangling the threat of using nukes to get whatever they want. That road leads to a very poor outcome.

If Russia uses any nuclear weapon, they will quickly find anything of military value in Russia swiftly targeted by the west. It will make the "shock and awe" of desert storm look like child's play.

[CameronBlue]

A negotiated settlement has always been impossible. Ukraine is not going to stop fighting unless someone makes them stop.

Putin is learning the world will not tolerate a nuclear armed bully to keep dangling the threat of using nukes to get whatever they want. That road leads to a very poor outcome.

If Russia uses any nuclear weapon, they will quickly find anything of military value in Russia swiftly targeted by the west. It will make the "shock and awe" of desert storm look like child's play.

That's "comforting" to know assuming you're dealing with a rational actor. It's not apparent to me that we are. Even without employing nukes to think that even with the near-total destruction of Russia's military assets Putin wouldn't able to inflict serious if limited damage on the US or its allies strikes me as wishful thinking. At best I think the outcome is unknowable.

[Skydog]

That's "comforting" to know assuming you're dealing with a rational actor. It's not apparent to me that we are. Even without employing nukes to think that even with the near-total destruction of Russia's military assets Putin wouldn't able to inflict serious if limited damage on the US or its allies strikes me as wishful thinking. At best I think the outcome is unknowable.

When the nuclear weapons are launched in both directions do you think someone will create a very short "Oh, Shxx!" thread on DBR? Or maybe BD will start one called "The Shortest Thread Ever?"

[CameronBlue]

When the nuclear weapons are launched in both directions do you think someone will create a very short "Oh, Shxx!" thread on DBR? Or maybe BD will start one called "The Shortest Thread Ever?"

Sure fire cure for constipation idn't it?

[PackMan97]

When the nuclear weapons are launched in both directions do you think someone will create a very short "Oh, Shxx!" thread on DBR? Or maybe BD will start one called "The Shortest Thread Ever?"

My take is that unless Russia lauches many nuclear weapons at a nuclear armed state, the response is not going to be nuclear.

No one in NATO is starting a nuclear war over a bomb or two, but they will start a conventional war and we have enough cruise missiles and conventional balistic missiles to lay waste to Russia's capability to wage war.

They'll be no nuclear exchange unless Russia launches a nuclear attack so massive that the response has to be nuclear.

[Phredd3]

My take is that unless Russia lauches many nuclear weapons at a nuclear armed state, the response is not going to be nuclear.

No one in NATO is starting a nuclear war over a bomb or two, but they will start a conventional war and we have enough cruise missiles and conventional balistic missiles to lay waste to Russia's capability to wage war.

They'll be no nuclear exchange unless Russia launches a nuclear attack so massive that the response has to be nuclear.

If Russia pops a nuke, would the U.S. target Putin himself? I don't think that world opinion would object to that particular bit of "regime change" politics, but that, too, is a road with dangerous ends.

[camion]

If Russia pops a nuke, would the U.S. target Putin himself? I don't think that world opinion would object to that particular bit of "regime change" politics, but that, too, is a road with dangerous ends.

If Putin tries to pop a nuke, the odds are non-zero that someone in Russia pops him.

I don't think many over there are keen to see the response that a nuclear strike would generate.