This Week in the ACC - 2/14-2/20

[pfrduke]

Three weeks to go and we now have 6 teams with double-digit wins. I’m also going to go ahead and flag Virginia Tech, which has gotten back to .500 in conference play and has a very favorable schedule down the stretch - their toughest games are this week at home, and if they sweep, everything else is extremely winnable. This team, which had so much promise/hype up front and then got off to such a rough start, could still surge into tournament contention.

Monday
[29]Virginia Tech (7-7) (-6) hosts [76]Virginia (10-5) (7:00, ESPN)

Tuesday
[6]Duke (11-3) (-11) hosts [37]Wake Forest (10-5) (7:00, ESPN)
[100]Florida State (6-8) (-2) hosts [80]Clemson (4-10) (7:00, ACCNX)
[154]Georgia Tech (3-10) (-1) hosts [127]NC State (3-12) (8:00, ACCN)

Wednesday
[128]Louisville (5-9) (+2) hosts [67]Miami (10-4) (7:00, ACCNX)
[59]Notre Dame (11-3) (-10) hosts [152]Boston College (4-9) (7:00, ESPNU)
[38]North Carolina (10-4) (-15) hosts [178]Pittsburgh (5-10) (8:00, ACCN)

Thursday and Friday are dark

Saturday
[75]Syracuse (7-7) (-9) hosts [152]Boston College (4-9) (12:00, ESPNU)
[37]Wake Forest (10-5) (-5) hosts [59]Notre Dame (11-3) (1:00, ACCNX)
[128]Louisville (5-9) (+1) hosts [80]Clemson (4-10) (3:00, ACCNX)
[29]Virginia Tech (7-7) (-6) hosts [38]North Carolina (10-4) (4:00, ESPN/2)
[67]Miami (10-4) (-4) hosts [76]Virginia (10-5) (5:00, ACCN)
[6]Duke (11-3) (-16) hosts [100]Florida State (6-8) (6:00, ESPN)
[178]Pittsburgh (5-10) (-1) hosts [154]Georgia Tech (3-10) (7:00, ACCN)

Sunday is dark

ACC Conference-Only Efficiency Margin
Duke - +14.9
Wake Forest - +10.7
North Carolina - +7.7
Miami - +6.4
Notre Dame - +5.6
Syracuse - +3.8
Virginia Tech - +3.0
Virginia - +1.4
Clemson - -3.5
NC State - -7.0
Florida State - -7.5
Louisville - -8.3
Pittsburgh - -8.6
Boston College - -9.6
Georgia Tech - -10.6

[JasonEvans]

I’m also going to go ahead and flag Virginia Tech, which has gotten back to .500 in conference play and has a very favorable schedule down the stretch - their toughest games are this week at home, and if they sweep, everything else is extremely winnable. This team, which had so much promise/hype up front and then got off to such a rough start, could still surge into tournament contention.

Look, I'm the guy who was touting Va Tech (and Notre Dame) as contenders before the season began, so I've been waiting for them to start playing like themselves for a while, but I would just caution that this little 5 game win streak they are on has been built by beating up on lower-tier ACC teams not the 6 clubs that have a winning record. But, you are correct that this week can tell us a lot. If VaT beats Virginia and UNC, they certainly will have announced themselves as a team that has a shot at a NCAA tourney bid. They are 28 in KenPom and #38 in the NET. Win a pair against top-tier ACC teams this week and the Hokies could find themselves in the top 30 in the NET. Hard to see anyone in that kind of spot not getting strong consideration for a bid.

[MarkD83]

Three weeks to go and we now have 6 teams with double-digit wins. I’m also going to go ahead and flag Virginia Tech, which has gotten back to .500 in conference play and has a very favorable schedule down the stretch - their toughest games are this week at home, and if they sweep, everything else is extremely winnable. This team, which had so much promise/hype up front and then got off to such a rough start, could still surge into tournament contention.

Monday
[29]Virginia Tech (7-7) (-6) hosts [76]Virginia (10-5) (7:00, ESPN)

Wednesday
[128]Louisville (5-9) (+2) hosts [67]Miami (10-4) (7:00, ACCNX)

Saturday
[37]Wake Forest (10-5) (-5) hosts [59]Notre Dame (11-3) (1:00, ACCNX)
[29]Virginia Tech (7-7) (-6) hosts [38]North Carolina (10-4) (4:00, ESPN/2)
[67]Miami (10-4) (-4) hosts [76]Virginia (10-5) (5:00, ACCN) - Depends upon the outcome of the earlier games.

For "magic number" purposes I have highlighted the key games and desired winners to help Duke win the ACC regular season.
This is becoming more obvious as we get to the end of the season, but nonetheless...it keeps my interest on these other games.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Kind of a blah set of games during the week.

Duke could use a Virginia win over VT to boost the Wahoos's NET Ranking into Q2 territory at Cameron and Q1 in Charlottesville.

[CameronDuke]

Big game tonight at Cassell Coliseum. A game a couple weeks ago would have drawn very little NCAAT qualification discussion. Both teams need this one to dance. Both teams are playing better than they were a month or so ago. UVa took the first one between the two teams by 2. Will Virginia Tech hold serve at home?

[sagegrouse]

Two home games for Duke this week -- amazing! Now I am really worried.

There's a logjam of six teams at the top of the ACC. The marquee games among the six are tomorrow's WF at Duke and Saturday's ND at Wake and Virginia at Miami.

[UrinalCake]

UVA sitting at 77 in the NET. Let’s get them up to 75!

[DavidBenAkiva]

UVA sitting at 77 in the NET. Let’s get them up to 75!

Exactly. It would be nice if UVA fell further behind Duke in the conference standings. However, I think it would be best for Duke if they finished the year strong. If the only other loss they take is at home to Duke, that would be a very good outcome.

[scottdude8]

Kind of a blah set of games during the week.

Duke could use a Virginia win over VT to boost the Wahoos's NET Ranking into Q2 territory at Cameron and Q1 in Charlottesville.

I'm torn about who to root for here. A late season VT run could get them into the NET Top 30 and give us another Q1 win, while a run by Virginia could get them into the NET Top 75 and help both our loss to them and give us another Q1 opportunity. I think I'm leaning towards Virginia since I have more faith in them given their track record than I do VT.

[OldPhiKap]

As long as VT beats the Heels Saturday, I’m good.

[scottdude8]

Two home games for Duke this week -- amazing! Now I am really worried.

There's a logjam of six teams at the top of the ACC. The marquee games among the six are tomorrow's WF at Duke and Saturday's ND at Wake and Virginia at Miami.

If we can take care of business tomorrow against Wake, we'll be three games clear of them in the loss column and I'll be going all-in on the Deacs the rest of the season. Not only can they help clear the path to the ACC regular season title (especially against Notre Dame) but it's still not out of the question that they sneak into the NET Top 30.

[CDu]

Both teams tonight will be playing to keep their at-large chances alive tonight. VT (due to their loss total) and UVa (due to their NET rating and bad losses) can't really afford to lose tonight.

Getting the VT win to Q1 would be nice, but getting the UVa loss to Q2 would also be nice. So from that perspective, there is a win/win and lose/lose from this game either way. Having some clearance from the 5th and 6th place teams would also be nice (I really want to win the ACC after all), so UVa losing from that perspetive would be beneficial.

[UrinalCake]

I'm torn about who to root for here. A late season VT run could get them into the NET Top 30 and give us another Q1 win, while a run by Virginia could get them into the NET Top 75 and help both our loss to them and give us another Q1 opportunity. I think I'm leaning towards Virginia since I have more faith in them given their track record than I do VT.

Think of it this way - we play UVA twice while we only play VT once, so a win by UVA helps us more. Also the UVA loss moving from Q3 to Q2 is a MUCH bigger deal than the VT win moving from Q2 to Q1. Having a Q3 loss gives the selection committee an excuse to bump us out of a 1 seed (if we were to win out) or a 2 seed (if we were to lose 1 more). Without that on our record we can lean on the strength of the Gonzaga and UK wins.

Of course the flip side is that UVA winning may pull them into the bubble conversation and make their home crowd more fired up when we play them. So we still have to win the games, but if we separate the impact on us then I absolutely want UVA to win tonight.

[Wahoo2000]

Exactly. It would be nice if UVA fell further behind Duke in the conference standings. However, I think it would be best for Duke if they finished the year strong. If the only other loss they take is at home to Duke, that would be a very good outcome.

I would take that result in a HEARTBEAT. I like the chances to dance if my Hoos finish the reg season at 20-10 (14-6), pending ACCT results following the expected outcomes (likely a semis or finals appearance for UVA). I don't think this will happen, but my oh my... what a job by Bennett that would be with this squad.

[-jk]

I would take that result in a HEARTBEAT. I like the chances to dance if my Hoos finish the reg season at 20-10 (14-6), pending ACCT results following the expected outcomes (likely a semis or finals appearance for UVA). I don't think this will happen, but my oh my... what a job by Bennett that would be with this squad.

Can you pass the offer on to Bennett, then? Get him on board?

-jk

[JasonEvans]

I think any ACC team that gets to 14-6 in the conference is going to make the tourney, no question about that. The 13-7 teams may have a little bit of a sweat but probably get an invite. The 12-8 clubs are pretty likely to get left home.

As of this moment, both Pomeroy and Torvik have the same projections for the ACC:

Duke 16-4
Notre Dame 15-5
UNC 14-6
Miami 13-7
Wake 13-7
Virginia 12-8
Va Tech 11-9
Syracuse 10-10

So Virginia needs to do something unexpected to get to those 13 wins that could... maybe... punch their ticket.

[OldPhiKap]

I think any ACC team that gets to 14-6 in the conference is going to make the tourney, no question about that. The 13-7 teams may have a little bit of a sweat but probably get an invite. The 12-8 clubs are pretty likely to get left home.

As of this moment, both Pomeroy and Torvik have the same projections for the ACC:

Duke 16-4
Notre Dame 15-5
UNC 14-6
Miami 13-7
Wake 13-7
Virginia 12-8
Va Tech 11-9
Syracuse 10-10

So Virginia needs to do something unexpected to get to those 13 wins that could... maybe... punch their ticket.

I think that’s a pretty solid analysis going in to the ACCT.

[Bob Green]

Halftime: Virginia 29, Virginia Tech 25.

Gardner scored 15 points for Virginia. Lots of basketball left to play but Virginia in position to pick up another conference win.

[-jk]

Halftime: Virginia 29, Virginia Tech 25.

Gardner scored 15 points for Virginia. Lots of basketball left to play but Virginia in position to pick up another conference win.

VaTech’s not dead yet.

-jk

[CameronDuke]

Tie ball game between UVa and VT.

42-42.

8 minutes left.