What to watch for in Duke MBB: February 2022

[CDu]

January didn't go quite as well as hoped, but it came pretty darn close. We went 1-2 in games decided by 3 points or less, and otherwise handled our opponents this past month (only one other game with a margin in single digits, at 9). Still, we're sitting at 18-3 overall, 8-2 in conference, tied for the top of the conference, and in position to compete for a 1 or 2 seed in the NCAA tourney. So here's what to watch for as the calendar switches to February:

Health: The team began this season with an injury to a key rotation player. They January recovering from COVID. And they'll begin February with a player working his way back from injury. It's a really talented team, but there isn't a ton of depth. So let's hope that the team is done with injuries/illness the rest of the way. But it is always something to keep an eye on.

Road Warriors and Quick Turnarounds Due in part to COVID rescheduling, five of our eight games this month will be on the road. Also, we'll have the next 5 games within an 11-day span. We'll have 2 games in 3 days twice over the next two weeks. This will be a big test for the team's resilience as well as an opportunity to experience what the NCAA Tournament will be like. We just handled one of those short turnaround stretches with reasonable aplomb, so hopefully we'll repeat that moving forward. The good news is that the second game in each of the next two dyads is the theoretically easier game (home vs UVa; at BC), so hopefully the team is able to handle that turnaround. But surviving that stretch without slip-ups will be important for our seeding.

Avoid "Playing Down" to Opponents: We will be favored by double-digits in four of the eight games, and 5+ point favorites in all but one. With a young team, maintaining focus and discipline against weaker opponents can be a challenge. It would behoove us to not get ourselves in rock fights with lesser teams (like we did against Clemson). Can this team find that extra gear to consistently put our foot on the throats of weaker opponents? The less we play in close games against weaker opponents, the less chance there will be of an upset like we suffered to Miami and at FSU.

Unforced Errors: We were a bit sloppy in January. In 10 ACC games, we have had our 7 worst turnover rates among our games against major opponents. And that is despite largely playing opponents that don't force turnovers. It's a lot of unforced errors. Can we clean that up? If we can, our offense becomes very difficult to stop. But it has been a consistent challenge in ACC play. Some of it is trying to do too much against defenses that are packed in, some of it is just lack of attention to detail. But it would be superb if the team can tighten that up.

Shooting (3pt and FT): The team has struggled from the FT line in conference play. We were a pretty good FT shooting team prior to conference play, but have struggled since. Moore and Banchero are probably the biggest culprits here, as they are better shooters than their January stats would suggest. Hopefully the team as a whole can start making the free ones a little bit better.

PG Play: January introduced a lot of moving parts to the team. Wendell Moore's turnover rate jumped, which caused the team to need to rely less on him as the playmaker. AJ Griffin emerged, which pushed one of the guards to the bench. And then Keels got hurt, which pushed Roach into a more critical playmaker role. Roach thrived over the previous few games, but struggled last night with Keels back. Can we find a nice synthesis of the trio of perimeter guys, and quickly? I suspect we'll see Keels and Roach sharing the duties moving forward, with Moore helping out but hunting his scoring more than creating for others. Can we continue to get high assist totals and low turnover numbers from our PG?

AJ Griffin: It's no secret that Griffin had a big month for Duke. His scoring in January was critical in a number of games. What might be a bit more secretive is that there is still a lot of untapped potential with him. He's been a fantastic 3pt shooter, and has occasionally shown some proficiency off the dribble. But I think he can still show more off the dribble. Also, I think he has the ability to post up smaller defenders since he's playing more as a SF. I think a high-low with Banchero/Williams and Griffin could be pretty effective. Will we start to see more wrinkles of Griffin's offensive game? I'd also like to see him start showing more of the athleticism that he was known for in high school. If he can start to get more reactive and explosive rather than so measured, he could become a huge force. That being said, if he can just keep doing what he's been doing, that's fine with me. Because he's a huge weapon as is.

Mark Williams: Williams was a monster this month. The key for him is availability. He has gotten into foul trouble a few times, and that has either taken him off the floor or made him tentative. But when he's been on the floor and unencumbered by fouls, he's been fantastic. I just want to see him continue to impact the game the way he did this past month moving forward, and I see no reason to expect that to cha

Trevor Keels: Shooting continues to be the main bugaboo for Keels. He's just not shooting it well at all. He does basically everything else well, but for a guy with a reputation as a shooter it is problematic that he can't shoot. Yes, freshmen often have trouble translating their 3pt% to the college distance. So it is possible that things will get better. But it would be really nice to see it start ticking upward this month.

Jeremy Roach: Almost a ditto of Keels. Roach had a terrific month from a playmaker/distributor perspective. His ~7:1 assist:turnover ratio over the last 3 weeks has been amazing. But he was brutal as a shooter this past month, similar to Keels. Can he get back to mediocre as a shooter while maintaining his fantastic distribution?

Theo John: John was a monster in the past two games in a slightly larger role. But he's been fairly inconsistent this year in his limited minutes. Can he settle in as a more consistent presence in his role as Mark Williams insurance? Ideally, he's going to stay in that 6-12 mpg role, with his minutes depending upon whether we go small or Williams is in foul trouble. But having him provide solid minutes will be a huge boon to the team.

Wendell Moore: It was a bit of a mixed bag for Moore in January. He was very good defensively, he rebounded well, and he shot the 3 well. But his ballhandling was not good. He averaged 2.8 turnovers per game, more than doubling his turnover total for the season, and his assist:turnover ratio was just 1.4. The team has shifted to relying more on Roach the last 3 weeks, and that has perhaps helped with the turnovers a bit. With the return of Keels.

Banchero PoY/FoY Watch: Banchero is such a phenomenal player. He averaged over 18 points and nearly 10 rebounds per game in January. Even still, it feels like he can do more. He's gotten a bit sloppy with the ball, turning it over nearly 3 times per game. Some of this is a function of trying to do too much off the dribble, and some is just getting a bit too cute. He is so talented and so much better than his competition that he just needs to keep it simple. Focus on getting himself in good spots, and taking advantage when he's in those spots. Probably a bit less 3pt shooting, and a bit less crazy dribble moves. But, really, he's doing sooooooo much for the team that this feels nitpicky. The team's ceiling gets reached when he's playing like an NCAA PoY as opposed to "just" the ACC PoY and freshman of the year. So hopefully this month he can start to find that rhythm and get back to basics.

Baker/Jones: Now that Keels is healthy again and Griffin has established himself, it feels like these two guys are likely to return to small roles. For Baker, it will largely be as a floor spacer, ideally against teams that aren't overly athletic. For Johns, it's if there is front court foul trouble or Banchero needs a mental break (like last night). I just want those guys to keep hitting open shots and to not hurt the team defensively, and otherwise just sort of fit in in the background.

Two of the next 3 games are the toughest games we have this month before we finish the month at Syracuse. The two toughest matchups bookend the month (at UNC, at Syracuse). It is entirely feasible for this team to go undefeated in February (~10-15% chance of it), but I'd expect a loss in there somewhere. If the team can keep the focus on each opponent, they are the "comfortable" favorites in every game except this Saturday (where they are the slight favorites). This is the time for the team to start really ramping up towards tournament quality.

[Kedsy]

Thanks, CDu. Your work is certainly a worthy successor to the "phase posts" of yore.

One thing I'd like to see improve but not sure it will is Duke's ability to force turnovers. We were decent-to-good at it for 10 of our first 11 games, but have been terrible at it for 8 of our past 10 games. The problem with doing it the way we have been is if you don't force any turnovers, and are a mediocre defensive rebounding team, that's two of the four factors. If an opponent crushes us on their offensive boards (as opposed to our usual meh performance), or gets hot shooting from outside, our defense sort of collapses because we can't make up for those one-game issues by forcing turnovers. The way I see it, if we're going to suffer a major upset, either in February or (worse) in the post-season, this will be why.

Opponents don't even have to shoot the lights out to become a challenge. Clemson had an eFG% of 48.6 (along with a TO% of 14.9); Miami's eFG% was also 48.6 (along with a TO% of 7.1); FSU actually shot poorly (eFG% of 40.4), but crushed us on their offensive boards (DR% of 61.2; along with a TO% of 7.0).

According to Torvik, our moving average is hovering under 14%. The Notre Dame was our 2nd-best opposing TO% out of our last 10 games (18.2%), but I'd like to see us consistently flirting with a 20% opposing TO rate (or better) in order to maximize our chances in the postseason.

[tommy]

Good one CDu.

One thing I'll be watching is Bates Jones v. Joey Baker. Bates has been getting more minutes over the last four or so games, which likely indicates (in addition to Keels being out) that K is becoming more comfortable than he had been with Bates playing meaningful minutes in ACC games. Joey, after shooting very well for most of conference play, is o-fer the last two games from three. There's a little piece of me that is feeling like these guys play a similar role on the team, and maybe Bates is coming on in K's eyes, and it's really going to be more of a battle going forward for minutes between these two for the "basically spot-up shooter and doesn't do much else veteran" role. (although I do think Joey's defensive energy and intensity have improved). Of course I could be completely wrong and Bates goes back to the bench with Keels being back, and sees mop-up duty only. But I'm not so sure.

[Kedsy]

Good one CDu.

One thing I'll be watching is Bates Jones v. Joey Baker. Bates has been getting more minutes over the last four or so games, which likely indicates (in addition to Keels being out) that K is becoming more comfortable than he had been with Bates playing meaningful minutes in ACC games. Joey, after shooting very well for most of conference play, is o-fer the last two games from three. There's a little piece of me that is feeling like these guys play a similar role on the team, and maybe Bates is coming on in K's eyes, and it's really going to be more of a battle going forward for minutes between these two for the "basically spot-up shooter and doesn't do much else veteran" role. (although I do think Joey's defensive energy and intensity have improved). Of course I could be completely wrong and Bates goes back to the bench with Keels being back, and sees mop-up duty only. But I'm not so sure.

Their games are similar, but I feel like Joey and Bates play different positions. Joey is more of a wing while Bates is more of a stretch-four.

[cato]

Thanks, CDu. Your work is certainly a worthy successor to the "phase posts" of yore.

One thing I'd like to see improve but not sure it will is Duke's ability to force turnovers. We were decent-to-good at it for 10 of our first 11 games, but have been terrible at it for 8 of our past 10 games. The problem with doing it the way we have been is if you don't force any turnovers, and are a mediocre defensive rebounding team, that's two of the four factors. If an opponent crushes us on their offensive boards (as opposed to our usual meh performance), or gets hot shooting from outside, our defense sort of collapses because we can't make up for those one-game issues by forcing turnovers. The way I see it, if we're going to suffer a major upset, either in February or (worse) in the post-season, this will be why.

Opponents don't even have to shoot the lights out to become a challenge. Clemson had an eFG% of 48.6 (along with a TO% of 14.9); Miami's eFG% was also 48.6 (along with a TO% of 7.1); FSU actually shot poorly (eFG% of 40.4), but crushed us on their offensive boards (DR% of 61.2; along with a TO% of 7.0).

According to Torvik, our moving average is hovering under 14%. The Notre Dame was our 2nd-best opposing TO% out of our last 10 games (18.2%), but I'd like to see us consistently flirting with a 20% opposing TO rate (or better) in order to maximize our chances in the postseason.

My concern with focusing on forcing turnovers is that that is *exactly* the type of factor that the team will stumble on in a season ending loss. IIRC, Zion’s team started out excelling in this but fell back to average before hitting the wall and losing the turnover battle decisively to Michigan State, getting bounced from the tournament in the process.

It looks like K and staff will focus on shoring up defensive rebounding to the extent possible while continuing to play defense the way the team has been playing defense. They are going all out contesting shots and disrupting the opponents offense. If they can eliminate getting devastated on the defensive boards I will be very happy.

[Saratoga2]

January didn't go quite as well as hoped, but it came pretty darn close. We went 1-2 in games decided by 3 points or less, and otherwise handled our opponents this past month (only one other game with a margin in single digits, at 9). Still, we're sitting at 18-3 overall, 8-2 in conference, tied for the top of the conference, and in position to compete for a 1 or 2 seed in the NCAA tourney. So here's what to watch for as the calendar switches to February:

Health: The team began this season with an injury to a key rotation player. They January recovering from COVID. And they'll begin February with a player working his way back from injury. It's a really talented team, but there isn't a ton of depth. So let's hope that the team is done with injuries/illness the rest of the way. But it is always something to keep an eye on.

Road Warriors and Quick Turnarounds Due in part to COVID rescheduling, five of our eight games this month will be on the road. Also, we'll have the next 5 games within an 11-day span. We'll have 2 games in 3 days twice over the next two weeks. This will be a big test for the team's resilience as well as an opportunity to experience what the NCAA Tournament will be like. We just handled one of those short turnaround stretches with reasonable aplomb, so hopefully we'll repeat that moving forward. The good news is that the second game in each of the next two dyads is the theoretically easier game (home vs UVa; at BC), so hopefully the team is able to handle that turnaround. But surviving that stretch without slip-ups will be important for our seeding.

Avoid "Playing Down" to Opponents: We will be favored by double-digits in four of the eight games, and 5+ point favorites in all but one. With a young team, maintaining focus and discipline against weaker opponents can be a challenge. It would behoove us to not get ourselves in rock fights with lesser teams (like we did against Clemson). Can this team find that extra gear to consistently put our foot on the throats of weaker opponents? The less we play in close games against weaker opponents, the less chance there will be of an upset like we suffered to Miami and at FSU.

Unforced Errors: We were a bit sloppy in January. In 10 ACC games, we have had our 7 worst turnover rates among our games against major opponents. And that is despite largely playing opponents that don't force turnovers. It's a lot of unforced errors. Can we clean that up? If we can, our offense becomes very difficult to stop. But it has been a consistent challenge in ACC play. Some of it is trying to do too much against defenses that are packed in, some of it is just lack of attention to detail. But it would be superb if the team can tighten that up.

Shooting (3pt and FT): The team has struggled from the FT line in conference play. We were a pretty good FT shooting team prior to conference play, but have struggled since. Moore and Banchero are probably the biggest culprits here, as they are better shooters than their January stats would suggest. Hopefully the team as a whole can start making the free ones a little bit better.

PG Play: January introduced a lot of moving parts to the team. Wendell Moore's turnover rate jumped, which caused the team to need to rely less on him as the playmaker. AJ Griffin emerged, which pushed one of the guards to the bench. And then Keels got hurt, which pushed Roach into a more critical playmaker role. Roach thrived over the previous few games, but struggled last night with Keels back. Can we find a nice synthesis of the trio of perimeter guys, and quickly? I suspect we'll see Keels and Roach sharing the duties moving forward, with Moore helping out but hunting his scoring more than creating for others. Can we continue to get high assist totals and low turnover numbers from our PG?

AJ Griffin: It's no secret that Griffin had a big month for Duke. His scoring in January was critical in a number of games. What might be a bit more secretive is that there is still a lot of untapped potential with him. He's been a fantastic 3pt shooter, and has occasionally shown some proficiency off the dribble. But I think he can still show more off the dribble. Also, I think he has the ability to post up smaller defenders since he's playing more as a SF. I think a high-low with Banchero/Williams and Griffin could be pretty effective. Will we start to see more wrinkles of Griffin's offensive game? I'd also like to see him start showing more of the athleticism that he was known for in high school. If he can start to get more reactive and explosive rather than so measured, he could become a huge force. That being said, if he can just keep doing what he's been doing, that's fine with me. Because he's a huge weapon as is.

Mark Williams: Williams was a monster this month. The key for him is availability. He has gotten into foul trouble a few times, and that has either taken him off the floor or made him tentative. But when he's been on the floor and unencumbered by fouls, he's been fantastic. I just want to see him continue to impact the game the way he did this past month moving forward, and I see no reason to expect that to cha

Trevor Keels: Shooting continues to be the main bugaboo for Keels. He's just not shooting it well at all. He does basically everything else well, but for a guy with a reputation as a shooter it is problematic that he can't shoot. Yes, freshmen often have trouble translating their 3pt% to the college distance. So it is possible that things will get better. But it would be really nice to see it start ticking upward this month.

Jeremy Roach: Almost a ditto of Keels. Roach had a terrific month from a playmaker/distributor perspective. His ~7:1 assist:turnover ratio over the last 3 weeks has been amazing. But he was brutal as a shooter this past month, similar to Keels. Can he get back to mediocre as a shooter while maintaining his fantastic distribution?

Theo John: John was a monster in the past two games in a slightly larger role. But he's been fairly inconsistent this year in his limited minutes. Can he settle in as a more consistent presence in his role as Mark Williams insurance? Ideally, he's going to stay in that 6-12 mpg role, with his minutes depending upon whether we go small or Williams is in foul trouble. But having him provide solid minutes will be a huge boon to the team.

Wendell Moore: It was a bit of a mixed bag for Moore in January. He was very good defensively, he rebounded well, and he shot the 3 well. But his ballhandling was not good. He averaged 2.8 turnovers per game, more than doubling his turnover total for the season, and his assist:turnover ratio was just 1.4. The team has shifted to relying more on Roach the last 3 weeks, and that has perhaps helped with the turnovers a bit. With the return of Keels.

Banchero PoY/FoY Watch: Banchero is such a phenomenal player. He averaged over 18 points and nearly 10 rebounds per game in January. Even still, it feels like he can do more. He's gotten a bit sloppy with the ball, turning it over nearly 3 times per game. Some of this is a function of trying to do too much off the dribble, and some is just getting a bit too cute. He is so talented and so much better than his competition that he just needs to keep it simple. Focus on getting himself in good spots, and taking advantage when he's in those spots. Probably a bit less 3pt shooting, and a bit less crazy dribble moves. But, really, he's doing sooooooo much for the team that this feels nitpicky. The team's ceiling gets reached when he's playing like an NCAA PoY as opposed to "just" the ACC PoY and freshman of the year. So hopefully this month he can start to find that rhythm and get back to basics.

Baker/Jones: Now that Keels is healthy again and Griffin has established himself, it feels like these two guys are likely to return to small roles. For Baker, it will largely be as a floor spacer, ideally against teams that aren't overly athletic. For Johns, it's if there is front court foul trouble or Banchero needs a mental break (like last night). I just want those guys to keep hitting open shots and to not hurt the team defensively, and otherwise just sort of fit in in the background.

Two of the next 3 games are the toughest games we have this month before we finish the month at Syracuse. The two toughest matchups bookend the month (at UNC, at Syracuse). It is entirely feasible for this team to go undefeated in February (~10-15% chance of it), but I'd expect a loss in there somewhere. If the team can keep the focus on each opponent, they are the "comfortable" favorites in every game except this Saturday (where they are the slight favorites). This is the time for the team to start really ramping up towards tournament quality.

I reviewed the ND game with the same player focused approach, only you did a much better job, especially looking at the players contributions and weaknesses. Clearly, the coaching staff sees the same things and no doubt a lot more. It is up to them to guide the players away from what they do poorly and toward what they are doing well. Specifically, having Moore playing offense off the ball rather than in a playmaking role and Banchero staying with what he does so well. Great review on your part. Maybe we will see some improvement on Saturday.

[Nugget]

My concern with focusing on forcing turnovers is that that is *exactly* the type of factor that the team will stumble on in a season ending loss. IIRC, Zion’s team started out excelling in this but fell back to average before hitting the wall and losing the turnover battle decisively to Michigan State, getting bounced from the tournament in the process.

It looks like K and staff will focus on shoring up defensive rebounding to the extent possible while continuing to play defense the way the team has been playing defense. They are going all out contesting shots and disrupting the opponents offense. If they can eliminate getting devastated on the defensive boards I will be very happy.

This intuitively seems right -- that it's difficult to expect to adopt a strategy of "force more turnovers" without being at risk of all of the "bad" things that could flow from that sort of extra aggression; [I]e.g.[I], fouling more, and/or giving up easier shots/even more offensive rebounds from players who get out of position by going for turnovers that aren't there.

[CDu]

This intuitively seems right -- that it's difficult to expect to adopt a strategy of "force more turnovers" without being at risk of all of the "bad" things that could flow from that sort of extra aggression; [I]e.g.[I], fouling more, and/or giving up easier shots/even more offensive rebounds from players who get out of position by going for turnovers that aren't there.

It's also generally the case that as you get deeper in the tournament teams are better at not turning it over. So a team that relies on forcing turnovers is going to have a harder and harder time using that to their advantage.

That said, I agree that being really bad at two of the "four factors" is a concern. We seem to be doing a little better on the glass in the last couple of games, but otherwise we're putting a LOT of pressure on our ability to not foul and our ability to make teams miss. I'd certainly be happy to see a few more turnovers happen organically.

[Kedsy]

My concern with focusing on forcing turnovers is that that is *exactly* the type of factor that the team will stumble on in a season ending loss. IIRC, Zion’s team started out excelling in this but fell back to average before hitting the wall and losing the turnover battle decisively to Michigan State, getting bounced from the tournament in the process.

It looks like K and staff will focus on shoring up defensive rebounding to the extent possible while continuing to play defense the way the team has been playing defense. They are going all out contesting shots and disrupting the opponents offense. If they can eliminate getting devastated on the defensive boards I will be very happy.

It's funny you should mention the 2019 Michigan State game, because that's exactly what I was thinking about when I wrote my earlier post. According to Torvik, our current 5-game moving average is 13.6%. The 2019 team forced all kinds of turnovers early in the season, but its 5-game moving average to close the regular season was 13.5%. Something changed for that team (possibly Zion's injury, as that's approximately when we stopped forcing turnovers, and we forced a bunch his first game back but after that, not so much), as it has also seemed to change for this year's team, and I believe the fact that we had become prone to force fewer turnovers is what made us vulnerable to the Michigan State loss.

The way the team has played defense this season (and almost every season under Coach K) makes it difficult to be a good defensive rebounding team. Or so I assume since Duke has essentially never had a good defensive rebounding team under Coach K. But it's not necessarily inconsistent with forcing turnovers (again, so I assume because we've had some teams that were really good at forcing them, including the early-season 2018-19 team and (to a lesser extent) the early season 2021-22 team). So it would seem to me less disruptive of our current defensive schemes to ratchet up turnover-causing pressure than it would to change things enough to make us a good defensive rebounding team.

Put another way, it's hard to believe this team will ever be better than barely adequate at defensive rebounding. If that's true and we're also subpar at forcing turnovers, our margin for error on defense will be very, very small, and thus make us more prone to getting upset.

[jv001]

The unforced errors are a big concern. In January, Paolo had 26 turnovers, Wendell had 25 turnovers and Mark had 15 turnovers. I would say most were unforced, although Paolo had the ball stripped from his hands on several occasions. We had 17 against Miami at home, we had 15 at home against Cuse, we had 15 on the road at FSU and had 14 against ND on the road. If the team can clean this up, it could be huge.

GoDuke!

[Phredd3]

The unforced errors are a big concern. In January, Paolo had 26 turnovers, Wendell had 25 turnovers and Mark had 15 turnovers. I would say most were unforced, although Paolo had the ball stripped from his hands on several occasions. We had 17 against Miami at home, we had 15 at home against Cuse, we had 15 on the road at FSU and had 14 against ND on the road. If the team can clean this up, it could be huge.

I agree with this. I think controlling our own turnovers is more important to the team's success than forcing our opponents to turn it over. It seems to me we have a lot more control over the former, but perhaps I'm missing something.

[dukelifer]

January didn't go quite as well as hoped, but it came pretty darn close. We went 1-2 in games decided by 3 points or less, and otherwise handled our opponents this past month (only one other game with a margin in single digits, at 9). Still, we're sitting at 18-3 overall, 8-2 in conference, tied for the top of the conference, and in position to compete for a 1 or 2 seed in the NCAA tourney. So here's what to watch for as the calendar switches to February:

Health: The team began this season with an injury to a key rotation player. They January recovering from COVID. And they'll begin February with a player working his way back from injury. It's a really talented team, but there isn't a ton of depth. So let's hope that the team is done with injuries/illness the rest of the way. But it is always something to keep an eye on.

Road Warriors and Quick Turnarounds Due in part to COVID rescheduling, five of our eight games this month will be on the road. Also, we'll have the next 5 games within an 11-day span. We'll have 2 games in 3 days twice over the next two weeks. This will be a big test for the team's resilience as well as an opportunity to experience what the NCAA Tournament will be like. We just handled one of those short turnaround stretches with reasonable aplomb, so hopefully we'll repeat that moving forward. The good news is that the second game in each of the next two dyads is the theoretically easier game (home vs UVa; at BC), so hopefully the team is able to handle that turnaround. But surviving that stretch without slip-ups will be important for our seeding.

Avoid "Playing Down" to Opponents: We will be favored by double-digits in four of the eight games, and 5+ point favorites in all but one. With a young team, maintaining focus and discipline against weaker opponents can be a challenge. It would behoove us to not get ourselves in rock fights with lesser teams (like we did against Clemson). Can this team find that extra gear to consistently put our foot on the throats of weaker opponents? The less we play in close games against weaker opponents, the less chance there will be of an upset like we suffered to Miami and at FSU.

Unforced Errors: We were a bit sloppy in January. In 10 ACC games, we have had our 7 worst turnover rates among our games against major opponents. And that is despite largely playing opponents that don't force turnovers. It's a lot of unforced errors. Can we clean that up? If we can, our offense becomes very difficult to stop. But it has been a consistent challenge in ACC play. Some of it is trying to do too much against defenses that are packed in, some of it is just lack of attention to detail. But it would be superb if the team can tighten that up.

Shooting (3pt and FT): The team has struggled from the FT line in conference play. We were a pretty good FT shooting team prior to conference play, but have struggled since. Moore and Banchero are probably the biggest culprits here, as they are better shooters than their January stats would suggest. Hopefully the team as a whole can start making the free ones a little bit better.

PG Play: January introduced a lot of moving parts to the team. Wendell Moore's turnover rate jumped, which caused the team to need to rely less on him as the playmaker. AJ Griffin emerged, which pushed one of the guards to the bench. And then Keels got hurt, which pushed Roach into a more critical playmaker role. Roach thrived over the previous few games, but struggled last night with Keels back. Can we find a nice synthesis of the trio of perimeter guys, and quickly? I suspect we'll see Keels and Roach sharing the duties moving forward, with Moore helping out but hunting his scoring more than creating for others. Can we continue to get high assist totals and low turnover numbers from our PG?

AJ Griffin: It's no secret that Griffin had a big month for Duke. His scoring in January was critical in a number of games. What might be a bit more secretive is that there is still a lot of untapped potential with him. He's been a fantastic 3pt shooter, and has occasionally shown some proficiency off the dribble. But I think he can still show more off the dribble. Also, I think he has the ability to post up smaller defenders since he's playing more as a SF. I think a high-low with Banchero/Williams and Griffin could be pretty effective. Will we start to see more wrinkles of Griffin's offensive game? I'd also like to see him start showing more of the athleticism that he was known for in high school. If he can start to get more reactive and explosive rather than so measured, he could become a huge force. That being said, if he can just keep doing what he's been doing, that's fine with me. Because he's a huge weapon as is.

Mark Williams: Williams was a monster this month. The key for him is availability. He has gotten into foul trouble a few times, and that has either taken him off the floor or made him tentative. But when he's been on the floor and unencumbered by fouls, he's been fantastic. I just want to see him continue to impact the game the way he did this past month moving forward, and I see no reason to expect that to cha

Trevor Keels: Shooting continues to be the main bugaboo for Keels. He's just not shooting it well at all. He does basically everything else well, but for a guy with a reputation as a shooter it is problematic that he can't shoot. Yes, freshmen often have trouble translating their 3pt% to the college distance. So it is possible that things will get better. But it would be really nice to see it start ticking upward this month.

Jeremy Roach: Almost a ditto of Keels. Roach had a terrific month from a playmaker/distributor perspective. His ~7:1 assist:turnover ratio over the last 3 weeks has been amazing. But he was brutal as a shooter this past month, similar to Keels. Can he get back to mediocre as a shooter while maintaining his fantastic distribution?

Theo John: John was a monster in the past two games in a slightly larger role. But he's been fairly inconsistent this year in his limited minutes. Can he settle in as a more consistent presence in his role as Mark Williams insurance? Ideally, he's going to stay in that 6-12 mpg role, with his minutes depending upon whether we go small or Williams is in foul trouble. But having him provide solid minutes will be a huge boon to the team.

Wendell Moore: It was a bit of a mixed bag for Moore in January. He was very good defensively, he rebounded well, and he shot the 3 well. But his ballhandling was not good. He averaged 2.8 turnovers per game, more than doubling his turnover total for the season, and his assist:turnover ratio was just 1.4. The team has shifted to relying more on Roach the last 3 weeks, and that has perhaps helped with the turnovers a bit. With the return of Keels.

Banchero PoY/FoY Watch: Banchero is such a phenomenal player. He averaged over 18 points and nearly 10 rebounds per game in January. Even still, it feels like he can do more. He's gotten a bit sloppy with the ball, turning it over nearly 3 times per game. Some of this is a function of trying to do too much off the dribble, and some is just getting a bit too cute. He is so talented and so much better than his competition that he just needs to keep it simple. Focus on getting himself in good spots, and taking advantage when he's in those spots. Probably a bit less 3pt shooting, and a bit less crazy dribble moves. But, really, he's doing sooooooo much for the team that this feels nitpicky. The team's ceiling gets reached when he's playing like an NCAA PoY as opposed to "just" the ACC PoY and freshman of the year. So hopefully this month he can start to find that rhythm and get back to basics.

Baker/Jones: Now that Keels is healthy again and Griffin has established himself, it feels like these two guys are likely to return to small roles. For Baker, it will largely be as a floor spacer, ideally against teams that aren't overly athletic. For Johns, it's if there is front court foul trouble or Banchero needs a mental break (like last night). I just want those guys to keep hitting open shots and to not hurt the team defensively, and otherwise just sort of fit in in the background.

Two of the next 3 games are the toughest games we have this month before we finish the month at Syracuse. The two toughest matchups bookend the month (at UNC, at Syracuse). It is entirely feasible for this team to go undefeated in February (~10-15% chance of it), but I'd expect a loss in there somewhere. If the team can keep the focus on each opponent, they are the "comfortable" favorites in every game except this Saturday (where they are the slight favorites). This is the time for the team to start really ramping up towards tournament quality.

I still haven't quite figured out this team. They are not really good at building leads. It seems to me that Banchero is much better when he tries to post up his defender. I am not sure who can handle him down there. But he likes to hang out more on the perimeter and his shot selection can be suspect. Moore is much better shooting with his feet set and has been good driving and kicking. But he wants to drive and score and he either misses dunks or gets the ball stripped. Mark Williams has excellent hands and can catch balls that are high- but almost every time he tries to dribble in the paint and attempt to pivot - he loses the ball. Keels is an amazing defender but is just too inconsistent shooter from deep to be given a green light. It feels like he is auditioning and it is not going well. AJ is the best shooter from deep and of all the players- has the best sense of his strengths and weaknesses. I suspect he will be a bigger part of the offense. Roach handles well but at times will get lost in the trees. He is best when he is setting others up. John and Baker can spell guys but you never quite know what you will get. I would love to see a more patient attack with Banchero on the block where he can either score or kick out to open shooters- like AJ or a set Moore. The next step for this team is to be a more consistent offense. The D is pretty solid and the rebounding is getting better of late.

[Papa John]

Mark Williams: Williams was a monster this month. The key for him is availability. He has gotten into foul trouble a few times, and that has either taken him off the floor or made him tentative. But when he's been on the floor and unencumbered by fouls, he's been fantastic. I just want to see him continue to impact the game the way he did this past month moving forward, and I see no reason to expect that to cha

I ask you all to please excuse the abrupt dropoff in this section. In the midst of this rhetorical layup, CDu was summarily stuffed by MW, and it took a few moments for the shock to wear off...



(Great analysis, btw... Love reading these!)

[Bob Green]

Thanks, CDu. Your work is certainly a worthy successor to the "phase posts" of yore.

I agree wholeheartedly. Thanks, CDu! I tried to give positive reputation points but I need to spread comments around.

[CDu]

I ask you all to please excuse the abrupt dropoff in this section. In the midst of this rhetorical layup, CDu was summarily stuffed by MW, and it took a few moments for the shock to wear off...



(Great analysis, btw... Love reading these!)

LOL - oops!

And thanks for the kind words everyone. It has been fun to do.

[jimsumner]

I still haven't quite figured out this team. They are not really good at building leads. It seems to me that Banchero is much better when he tries to post up his defender. I am not sure who can handle him down there. But he likes to hang out more on the perimeter and his shot selection can be suspect. .

The Duke coaches have consistently said that they think Banchero is most effective when he works outside in. They want him at the elbow, even further out. I also would like to see him channel his inner Elton Brand and start off on the blocks but apparently he's doing what they coaches are asking him to do.

[Kedsy]

I still haven't quite figured out this team. They are not really good at building leads.

Duke has had double-digit leads in 17 out of 21 games this season. Duke has had at least a 7-point lead in every game except one.

Moore is much better shooting with his feet set and has been good driving and kicking. But he wants to drive and score and he either misses dunks or gets the ball stripped.

Wendell Moore is shooting 70.9% at the rim, which is incredibly good for a guard. And I don't have exact numbers, but I don't think very many of his turnovers happen when he's attempting to drive and score.

Mark Williams has excellent hands and can catch balls that are high- but almost every time he tries to dribble in the paint and attempt to pivot - he loses the ball.

Again, I don't have evidence, but I don't think this happens nearly as often you believe. It's only natural to notice the bad stuff more.

It seems to me that Banchero is much better when he tries to post up his defender. I am not sure who can handle him down there. But he likes to hang out more on the perimeter and his shot selection can be suspect.

In general, postups are not the most efficient offensive play. Also Paolo probably doesn't turn it over on postups as much as Mark does (percentage-wise, he probably turns it over more on postups than Mark in straight quantity), but I'd be surprised if we don't have a lot of more efficient offensive options than a Paolo postup. Obviously it's a good play occasionally, but I wouldn't want it to be our primary offense.

[cato]

It's funny you should mention the 2019 Michigan State game, because that's exactly what I was thinking about when I wrote my earlier post. According to Torvik, our current 5-game moving average is 13.6%. The 2019 team forced all kinds of turnovers early in the season, but its 5-game moving average to close the regular season was 13.5%. Something changed for that team (possibly Zion's injury, as that's approximately when we stopped forcing turnovers, and we forced a bunch his first game back but after that, not so much), as it has also seemed to change for this year's team, and I believe the fact that we had become prone to force fewer turnovers is what made us vulnerable to the Michigan State loss.

The way the team has played defense this season (and almost every season under Coach K) makes it difficult to be a good defensive rebounding team. Or so I assume since Duke has essentially never had a good defensive rebounding team under Coach K. But it's not necessarily inconsistent with forcing turnovers (again, so I assume because we've had some teams that were really good at forcing them, including the early-season 2018-19 team and (to a lesser extent) the early season 2021-22 team). So it would seem to me less disruptive of our current defensive schemes to ratchet up turnover-causing pressure than it would to change things enough to make us a good defensive rebounding team.

Put another way, it's hard to believe this team will ever be better than barely adequate at defensive rebounding. If that's true and we're also subpar at forcing turnovers, our margin for error on defense will be very, very small, and thus make us more prone to getting upset.

I hear you and hope that the team will force more turnovers without trade offs on what it does so well, particularly contesting shots without fouling. But from what the players and coaches have said, it seems that shoring up the defensive rebounding is a point of focus. I don’t expect them to become a force on the defensive boards, but if they can just be reliably adequate that will fit nicely with the strengths of the defense.

By the way, I love this team so much for its defense. I am still chortling to myself about holding the Irish to 14 points in a half. My daughter, who is just getting a bit of interest in watching sports with me, keeps asking me whether they play quarters or halves in MBB. At the end of the first half I teased her by saying you could tell it was a quarter because of the score.

[dukelifer]

Duke has had double-digit leads in 17 out of 21 games this season. Duke has had at least a 7-point lead in every game except one.



Wendell Moore is shooting 70.9% at the rim, which is incredibly good for a guard. And I don't have exact numbers, but I don't think very many of his turnovers happen when he's attempting to drive and score.



Again, I don't have evidence, but I don't think this happens nearly as often you believe. It's only natural to notice the bad stuff more.



In general, postups are not the most efficient offensive play. Also Paolo probably doesn't turn it over on postups as much as Mark does (percentage-wise, he probably turns it over more on postups than Mark in straight quantity), but I'd be surprised if we don't have a lot of more efficient offensive options than a Paolo postup. Obviously it's a good play occasionally, but I wouldn't want it to be our primary offense.

Fine- but I am hoping for 7 point leads to grow not shrink.

What is Moore’s shooting at the rim after the Covid break. Is it still that good. And I think his turnovers have ticked up since then.

As for Paolo- yes this cannot be the play always but it should be used more in my opinion.

[dukelifer]

The Duke coaches have consistently said that they think Banchero is most effective when he works outside in. They want him at the elbow, even further out. I also would like to see him channel his inner Elton Brand and start off on the blocks but apparently he's doing what they coaches are asking him to do.

Sure but what do they know