Does Joey Baker have the right to return next year

[JasonEvans]

So the transfer portal without sitting out helps the players, but the coaches will not have the luxury of taking transfers that are known quantities like today when there are players with the Covid extra year.

Just so we are clear, the Covid extra year applies to everyone who was in school a year ago during the Covid year. Jeremy Roach, Henry Coleman, Joey Baker, Theo John, Armando Bacot... everyone who was on a roster a year ago has the option to play 5 years of college basketball (6 if they redshirt at some point). So, you will be seeing 5th year seniors playing a major role in the transfer portal for a couple more years.

[CDu]

I see the point about not having to sit out a year but will press the point a bit about transfers.

Right now the transfer portal is very significant because a Jordan Goldwire who was in the rotation at Duke or Theo John who was a major contributor at Marquette have the extra year. A coach can look at both of them and know that they have been major contributors and can recruit them to fill specific needs.

Disgruntled sophomores/juniors were probably not in the rotation at a major program so there is still a leap of faith by a coach as to whether they will contribute right away or need a year to develop. Clearly Henry Coleman is contributing right away at Texas A&M which is good.

So the transfer portal without sitting out helps the players, but the coaches will not have the luxury of taking transfers that are known quantities like today when there are players with the Covid extra year.

Depends. First, there are 3 more years of 5th year players (last year's freshmen can stay for a 5th year too). So there will still be plenty of those veterans. Also, I think you underestimate how many useful sophomore/juniors there will be from year to year. Coleman, Kessler, and Brakefield are sophomores from just the two local schools. Top-100 recruits are a great place to hunt for talent that just didn't click at it's first stop. I don't think Pearl thought he was taking a risk with Kessler, nor do I think Williams thought it was a risk taking Coleman.

[arnie]

Just so we are clear, the Covid extra year applies to everyone who was in school a year ago during the Covid year. Jeremy Roach, Henry Coleman, Joey Baker, Theo John, Armando Bacot... everyone who was on a roster a year ago has the option to play 5 years of college basketball (6 if they redshirt at some point). So, you will be seeing 5th year seniors playing a major role in the transfer portal for a couple more years.

So Bacot gets his money’s worth and takes a bunch of classes if he stays 6 years.😀😀

[MarkD83]

Both CDu and Jason clarified this for me. There will be 3 more years of players with known quantities being able to transfer. So for instance Bacot or Wendel or any other sophomore or higher player are still available.

[tking]

Fun fact -- Jalen Coleman Lands (Kansas transfer) is almost a full year older than Brandon Ingram, who's now in his 6th NBA season.

Conceivably there could be a transfer in his late 20s playing against 18-year olds. Say a latter-day Matt Christensen (no pun intended).

[Indoor66]

So Bacot gets his money’s worth and takes a bunch of classes if he stays 6 years.😀😀

No, he gets 4 years worth in those six.

[CDu]

Both CDu and Jason clarified this for me. There will be 3 more years of players with known quantities being able to transfer. So for instance Bacot or Wendel or any other sophomore or higher player are still available.

There is no end to the possibility of known quantities transferring. There are just 3 more years of players being allowed to play in 5 seasons.

But the rule that players can transfer one time without sitting out will continue to be in place. So players like Bacot and Moore could transfer any time until/unless they decide to change the rule.

[MarkD83]

There is no end to the possibility of known quantities transferring. There are just 3 more years of players being allowed to play in 5 seasons.

But the rule that players can transfer one time without sitting out will continue to be in place. So players like Bacot and Moore could transfer any time until/unless they decide to change the rule.

True but you no longer have the "extra" player who has played for four years for the team that recruited him, gets his degree and then parts ways amicably but wants to just see what it is like to play at some other school.

[CDu]

True but you no longer have the "extra" player who has played for four years for the team that recruited him, gets his degree and then parts ways amicably but wants to just see what it is like to play at some other school.

Yes, but that typically isn’t an impact player. It is the rising sophomores and juniors where most of the top transfer talent will be.

[MarkD83]

Yes, but that typically isn’t an impact player. It is the rising sophomores and juniors where most of the top transfer talent will be.

This raises an interesting question...Is a 5th year Jordan Goldwire (or others like him) equally impactful as a 50-100 ranked recruit (4 star players) after 1 or 2 years in college. My feeling is that it is the top 50-100 players that after 1 or 2 years are the transfers. If they are in the top 1-50 (5 stars) when entering college they have already gone pro or are in the main rotation after 1 or 2 years.

I believe I recall DBR having this type of discussion. There was some equation of how many stars you give a player per years of experience.

[CDu]

This raises an interesting question...Is a 5th year Jordan Goldwire (or others like him) equally impactful as a 50-100 ranked recruit (4 star players) after 1 or 2 years in college. My feeling is that it is the top 50-100 players that after 1 or 2 years are the transfers. If they are in the top 1-50 (5 stars) when entering college they have already gone pro or are in the main rotation after 1 or 2 years.

I believe I recall DBR having this type of discussion. There was some equation of how many stars you give a player per years of experience.

Coleman, Kessler, and Brakefield are all top-50 (Kessler a top-25 5-star) recruits who transferred. Those guys are all better than Goldwire. Alondis Williams on the other hand, is playing better than all of those guys except for (maybe) Kessler.

For the most part, the best talent is going to be those top-50 guys who felt they chose poorly and leave after their freshman or sophomore years. Occasionally, you will see a case like Williams who wildly outperforms his expectations. But for the most part the 5th year guys are not likely to fill starring roles on top teams. Whereas the younger, higher-rated recruits often can.

[jipops]

There is no end to the possibility of known quantities transferring. There are just 3 more years of players being allowed to play in 5 seasons.

But the rule that players can transfer one time without sitting out will continue to be in place. So players like Bacot and Moore could transfer any time until/unless they decide to change the rule.

I would think Jeremy Roach enters this conversation if Caleb Foster reclassifies. After 2 seasons of being a pg yet without the primary ball handling duties, it seems there is a high probability he could be looking elsewhere if a high profile point guard like Caleb shows up. I certainly wouldn't want this, but I think that's just the new reality. One that Brakefield and Coleman saw when Banchero and Griffin were coming in.

As for Joey, I see it as being much more likely that he takes his Duke degree and looks for a program that will get him a season that is well beyond spot duty.

[johnb]

I would think Jeremy Roach enters this conversation if Caleb Foster reclassifies. After 2 seasons of being a pg yet without the primary ball handling duties, it seems there is a high probability he could be looking elsewhere if a high profile point guard like Caleb shows up. I certainly wouldn't want this, but I think that's just the new reality. One that Brakefield and Coleman saw when Banchero and Griffin were coming in.

As for Joey, I see it as being much more likely that he takes his Duke degree and looks for a program that will get him a season that is well beyond spot duty.

Hard to know behind the scenes, but it’s possible that if Banchero, Moore, and Keels are gone, and Foster reclassified, the team would return to having a more typical backcourt (the kind with guards bringing up the ball rather than wings). Obviously, if Foster arrives and dominates the ball like a senior BobbyHurley, it’s probably not best for Jeremy. But if he arrived, and they shared pg, including playing together, it could be more helpful to Jeremy’s pro career than a year starting somewhere else.

But whenever I go down the “he’d be better off with another Duke year,” that player reliably leaves, so I’m gonna stop before I start in on Joey Baker.

[DevilYouKnow]

I'd love to have him for a fifth season, but let's be realistic. He'd be better off being a bigger fish in a smaller pond. He's presumably getting his Duke degree in May. He's lived his dream. He's not starting next season. He got to be a co-captain this season. I know he loves being a Blue Devil, but development-wise, he could go to a Creighton, or a Lehigh, be the man and develop his talent for a pro career overseas.

[Indoor66]

I'd love to have him for a fifth season, but let's be realistic. He'd be better off being a bigger fish in a smaller pond. He's presumably getting his Duke degree in May. He's lived his dream. He's not starting next season. He got to be a co-captain this season. I know he loves being a Blue Devil, but development-wise, he could go to a Creighton, or a Lehigh, be the man and develop his talent for a pro career overseas.

They'll build a statue.

[Bluedog]

Before the season, there was a great Joey video that DukeMBB put out on its social media that pretty plainly stated the plan was for this to be his "last year." Of course, things can change, but that seemed to be the intent at the onset of the season.