MBB: Duke at Louisville (Sat, Jan 29, 12pm ET ESPN) Pre- and In-game Thread

[Bluegrassdevil1]

I realize angst is the core of DBR; it is likely while I connect to it so much!

However, if Duke loses on Saturday, which is possible, the result will be connected to Duke's efforts, not UofL's. This is not a good UofL team. Very simply, UofL is not a good squad. Mike Pegues is not the reincarnation of Wooden or Willis. Pegues is a fine coach. But, he is fine, not exceptional. This Cards' squad is not going to rally itself. Their core star player is not physically healthy. Inspiration will not amend his lower body. Their bench does not understand it's functional roles. The game will not sell out. Crowd noise will not be a huge factor.

In 2015, two people offered me $300 dollars above face value, for my tickets.

in 2019, my own brother offered me $500 bucks, because his girlfriend wanted to see Williams up close.

No one. Not a soul. Has asked me about my tickets for Saturday. My nephew LOOOVVVVESSSSS UofL. Loves them. He remains, less than 48-hours before tip, non-committed to coming with my family.

Duke could lose. But, they will lose for the same reasons they lost to OSU (I sooooo enjoyed that in-person experience), Miami, FSU, and nearly lost to the Tigers.

UofL as a city. A university. Fanbase. And squad. Is apathetic. Everyone associated with the UofL program wants this year to end. Conclusion. Close the book on this chapter. UofL is not the monster under the bed. They are the child screaming for their parents to come save them.

[AGDukesky]

I've thought about it, but I don't know. I try to mention any large discrepancies in my post-game advanced stats post, but it would seem unwieldy and difficult to read if I combined the pre- and post-game posts. Don't you think?

I will trust your judgment. Maybe just a comment in the postgame if something varied significantly from the norm.

…As I sit here eating bon bons dictating what someone else should do for my benefit

[DavidBenAkiva]

This is going to be a fascinating game. It's clear that something between Mack and the team happened. Then again, it's not clear that the players themselves were all on the same page. There seems to be an assumption that they will rally together. It could also be the case that Mack was unable to get the pieces to fit together.

The season began with Chris Mack suspended for the first 6 games of the season. They played more or less at the same level for the next several games based on the T-Rank game score and the KenPom rating for the season. They had a bit of an up and down performance once Mack returned. Things really fell apart in their last 5 games.

One thing that sticks out looking at the stats is the sheer number of lineups being used. No single player has started every game and 10 players have started at least 3 games. PG Jarrod West has started most of the season, although he's been moved to the bench the last 3 games as CDu noted. They had a game against NC State where the starters scored a combined 11 points in a 79-63 loss. I don't recall a starting unit failing to score so little in a game. Even in the infamous NC State-VT game where the Wolfpack only scored 24 points for the whole game, the starters still scored a combined 17 points. Its entirely possible that this roster doesn't know how to run an offense. It's got a ton of transfers. Of the 10 players getting rotation minutes, 6 of them are in their first year playing at Louisville and 2 of them are sophomores. Only Malik Williams and Samuel Williamson have been there for more than 2 years. Williams barely played last year due to injuries. This is a roster that hasn't ever had something resembling continuity.

Whose to say that the players all want to pull in the same direction?

[CDu]

Duke could lose. But, they will lose for the same reasons they lost to OSU (I sooooo enjoyed that in-person experience), Miami, FSU, and nearly lost to the Tigers.

UofL as a city. A university. Fanbase. And squad. Is apathetic. Everyone associated with the UofL program wants this year to end. Conclusion. Close the book on this chapter. UofL is not the monster under the bed. They are the child screaming for their parents to come save them.

I don't disagree. But that's the point: Louisville is capable of playing like a top-75 (but not really top-50) team. That is what they were up through December. Duke has shown they can lose to a team in that range, with the loss at FSU and the almost-loss at home vs Clemson.

If Louisville continues to play like the train wreck they have been in January, Duke should win fairly comfortably. If Louisville returns to being mediocre, Duke could find a way to lose it (like they did against FSU). This is especially true if they are shorthanded again.

But even if Louisville plays its Nov/Dec level of play, Duke wins as long as they play around their season-long average level of play, and not like they did against Miami, Clemson, and FSU.

Note: I wouldn't include OSU in the same category. OSU is actually good. And we dominated for so much of that game before foul trouble caused us to collapse. Even still, the aggregate performance was a solid game by Duke. Unlike the Miami/FSU/Clemson games, which performances like a #50-75 ranked team. If we play like that and Louisville returns to it's early season form, we could easily lose.

So, yes, a Duke loss would almost certainly be the result of Duke playing down to its competition. But that is still a real possibility on the road, especially with the absence of Keels.

[gofurman]

we beat em there /see name... Cmon Duke, you can too !

[heyman25]

I only know one thing. It ain’t gonna matter if their former asst. coach is coaching or Elmer Fudd, the cardinals will be fired up and probably play their best game of the year because Duke is coming. I expect another rock gut drama that will come down to the final minute.

Moore and Banchero need to have low turnover games. Griffin needs to get us points and not lose his man.Williams and Roach have been great lately and that needs to continue. Like to see consistency and if we get a lead keep the foot on the gas pedal. Can't play like we did against Miami, FSU or Clemson. Those teams were not going away and forced errors were issues. We could get better at rebounding,but that seems to still be a problem. Baker, Jones and John need to score when they get playing time. As a fan would like an easy win,but have no expectations of what will develop. Too bad Keels is out,but when he returns hope he can light a fuse to get this team playing winning basketball.

[DevilYouKnow]

I only know one thing. It ain’t gonna matter if their former asst. coach is coaching or Elmer Fudd, the cardinals will be fired up and probably play their best game of the year because Duke is coming. I expect another rock gut drama that will come down to the final minute.

They may well be fired up, but if Duke gets a good lead in the first half, I can see the Cards just folding like rusty lawn chairs. It won't take much to demoralize them just a little bit more. I get the feeling Mack had alienated the team, so it's not like they're going to be pissed that he was let go.

[FUBARDoorBuster]

Thanks as always ….

One interesting thing to watch will be how they defend Banchero. I guess maybe their M Williams will guard Banchero and Curry will guard our M Williams. If so, that's going to be an interesting matchup for Banchero, as Williams might have the length/strength/athleticism combo to give Banchero some trouble. Additionally, they'll probably sag off to protect against the drive, which has sometimes gotten Banchero in trouble. If we can punish them for protecting the lane, that'll be huge.

One style of play that I have not seen much this year is a three point shooter, say AJ, setting a hard pick, then rolling off for an open three look. Say PB 5 is cutting to the basket , with or without the ball, he gets help from a pick , which also opens up space for the shooter as well. This seems like a basic pro style- maybe from the triangle and two. Would be nice to get space for AJ rolling out after the pick. AJ seemed to get more attention from Clemson on the perimeter- he seemed to try drives more in that game that didn’t necessarily end up on a positive play. This play might help against an overeager Lville defense, esp to pull a big out to cover PB5 on the perimeter, then get cut off by a pick and get caught away from the basket

[Pghdukie]

Speaking of Louisville troubles, it makes me stop to think that a wounded dog is a very dangerous dog.

[uh_no]

Speaking of Louisville troubles, it makes me stop to think that a wounded dog is a very dangerous dog.

didn't hold true for our women last night.

I think it's an simply an easy post-hoc explanation. If they play well, it's because they were inspired by losing their coach. If they play poorly, it's because of the chaos of having just lost their coach.


In either case, I highly doubt were one of our players injured, or our coach out, we would say "Oh good. We have a much better chance now because a wounded dog is a dangerous dog," and I suspect UL fans feel similar.

[dukelifer]

Speaking of Louisville troubles, it makes me stop to think that a wounded dog is a very dangerous dog.

The Duke game is always circled on a team's schedule. This year it is even more important because Duke has the highest ranking of any ACC team. Louisville will play extremely hard and the challenge will be for Duke to match their intensity. This is not an experienced Duke team. It is always tough to go on the road and play hard- and harder when you have only done it a few of times as a team. This is only the third true road game that did not involve a bus ride (to Wake) and Duke is 0-2 in the other two (OSU, FSU). This team gets into long scoring droughts and has trouble rebounding. If they turn it over- then it gets ugly. While Duke is slowly getting better- this is a team with a small margin for error- particularly with Keels out. Keeping with the dog analogy- this will be a dog fight. Duke will be lucky to come out with a win. This week will make or break the season for Duke. It is not that they cannot be dangerous in March- but the lack of experience- the loss of Keels and a three game road trip against top half teams is not easy. All games will be very tight. I expect some major bumps but they will be tougher for it.

[hustleplays]

I will trust your judgment. Maybe just a comment in the postgame if something varied significantly from the norm.

…As I sit here eating bon bons dictating what someone else should do for my benefit

AGDukesky, that's exactly what I was hoping for. Kedsy, your stats are so informative. What's fascinating about sports for many of us is, given the history, how does the next game differ from the statistical extrapolations.

As I sip my Old Fashioned, I respectfully request that you work even harder, and point out the major discrepancies between pre-game stats and game stats. Thank you for understanding the depth of our need and sloth. :-)

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Bob Wischusen and Chris Spatola are calling the game - works for me.

[Jeffrey]

One interesting thing to watch will be how they defend Banchero. I guess maybe their M Williams will guard Banchero and Curry will guard our M Williams. If so, that's going to be an interesting matchup for Banchero, as Williams might have the length/strength/athleticism combo to give Banchero some trouble. Additionally, they'll probably sag off to protect against the drive, which has sometimes gotten Banchero in trouble. If we can punish them for protecting the lane, that'll be huge.

Regardless of how they defend Banchero, if the game is close in the final two minutes, then I hope Banchero has the ball. IMO, Moore is not our best option with the game on the line. The stats (which I’ve admittedly never seen) may not support my opinion, but I really love how Banchero plays, on both sides of the court, in the final minutes of a close game. Unfortunately, I don’t usually feel the same about Moore’s offense, in the final two minutes.

[arnie]

Duke opened as 9 pt favorite; line is now down to 6-6.5 depending on casino.

Pitino reincarnation or inside info on Duke injury status?

[simplyluvin]

Duke opened as 9 pt favorite; line is now down to 6-6.5 depending on casino.

Pitino reincarnation or inside info on Duke injury status?

Down to -5.5. Does Vegas know something we don’t?

[Indoor66]

Down to -5.5. Does Vegas know something we don’t?

Always. They know.

[dukebluesincebirth]

Down to -5.5. Does Vegas know something we don’t?

The only thing I can imagine is that $ flowed in on the Louisville side (which doesn't make much sense considering their coaching situation), and they adjusted to balance the $. Tempting to take Duke at 5.5.

[-jk]

DBR Chat is open!

If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page.

If it's running too fast for you, you can always check out the chat archive to catch up.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[Billy Dat]

Regular season title hopes mean we need this one. Can we go on the road and methodically take care of biz? Let’s go!!!!