This Week in the ACC - 1/24-1/30

[pfrduke]

Near the halfway point and we have 4 teams clustered at the top with 2 losses a piece. Special recognition here to Miami, whose 2 losses are by a grand total of 2 points, both to FSU, and Duke, whose 2 losses are by a grand total of 3 points, including a 1-point OT loss to FSU. And I guess separate special recognition to FSU for being incredibly lucky, given those 3 1-point wins and overall sitting at the top of the conference here in late January despite having the 9th best pace-adjusted scoring margin in the league, getting outscored by about a point per 100 possessions (by 6 points total in conference play). Another 4 teams remain over .500 in conference play, but the trajectory of one (hi, Wake) feels pretty different from the other 3. Here’s a quick rundown of the week - some extra action on Monday as we get some of the Covid postponements played.

Monday
[34]Wake Forest (6-3) (-12) hosts [131]Boston College (3-4) (6:00, ACCN)
[93]Virginia (5-4) (-4) hosts [109]Louisville (5-4) (7:00, ESPN)
[43]North Carolina (4-3) (-2) hosts [37]Virginia Tech (2-5) (8:00, ACCN)

Tuesday
[10]Duke (5-2) (-12) hosts [63]Clemson (3-5) (7:00, ESPN2)
[196]Pittsburgh (2-6) (+4) hosts [83]Syracuse (3-5) (8:00, ACCN)

Wednesday
[37]Virginia Tech (2-5) (-6) hosts [62]Miami (6-2) (7:00, ACCN)
[43]North Carolina (4-3) (-11) hosts [131]Boston College (3-4) (7:00, ACCNX)
[139]Georgia Tech (1-6) (+4) hosts [54]Florida State (6-2) (9:00, ACCN)
[57]Notre Dame (5-2) (-6) hosts [98]NC State (3-6) (9:00, ACCNX)

Thursday and Friday are dark

Saturday
[109]Louisville (5-4) (+9) hosts [10]Duke (5-2) (12:00, ESPN)
[139]Georgia Tech (1-6) (+4) hosts [62]Miami (6-2) (12:00, ACCNX)
[43]North Carolina (4-3) (-8) hosts [98]NC State (3-6) (2:00, ACCN)
[54]Florida State (6-2) (-1) hosts [37]Virginia Tech (2-5) (3:00, ABC)
[131]Boston College (3-4) (-6) hosts [196]Pittsburgh (2-6) (4:00, ACCN)
[57]Notre Dame (5-2) (-6) hosts [93]Virginia (5-4) (6:00, ACCN)
[83]Syracuse (3-5) (+1) hosts [34]Wake Forest (6-3) (8:00, ACCN)

Sunday is dark

ACC Conference-Only Efficiency Margin
Duke - +14.1
Wake Forest - +10.4
Miami - +9.1
North Carolina - +5.4 (this was +22.3 a week ago)
Notre Dame - +3.5
Clemson - +0.6
Syracuse - -0.3
NC State - -0.5
Florida State - -1.1
Louisville - -3.6
Boston College - -4.9
Virginia - -6.1
Virginia Tech - -7.9
Pittsburgh - -7.9
Georgia Tech - -14.1

ACC Non-Conference: 108-53
ACC v. Power 6: 18-30

[tommy]

Near the halfway point and we have 4 teams clustered at the top with 2 losses a piece. Special recognition here to Miami, whose 2 losses are by a grand total of 2 points, both to FSU, and Duke, whose 2 losses are by a grand total of 3 points, including a 1-point OT loss to FSU. And I guess separate special recognition to FSU for being incredibly lucky, given those 3 1-point wins and overall sitting at the top of the conference here in late January despite having the 9th best pace-adjusted scoring margin in the league, getting outscored by about a point per 100 possessions (by 6 points total in conference play). Another 4 teams remain over .500 in conference play, but the trajectory of one (hi, Wake) feels pretty different from the other 3. Here’s a quick rundown of the week - some extra action on Monday as we get some of the Covid postponements played.

Monday
[34]Wake Forest (6-3) (-12) hosts [131]Boston College (3-4) (6:00, ACCN)
[93]Virginia (5-4) (-4) hosts [109]Louisville (5-4) (7:00, ESPN)
[43]North Carolina (4-3) (-2) hosts [37]Virginia Tech (2-5) (8:00, ACCN)

Tuesday
[10]Duke (5-2) (-12) hosts [63]Clemson (3-5) (7:00, ESPN2)
[196]Pittsburgh (2-6) (+4) hosts [83]Syracuse (3-5) (8:00, ACCN)

Wednesday
[37]Virginia Tech (2-5) (-6) hosts [62]Miami (6-2) (7:00, ACCN)
[43]North Carolina (4-3) (-11) hosts [131]Boston College (3-4) (7:00, ACCNX)
[139]Georgia Tech (1-6) (+4) hosts [54]Florida State (6-2) (9:00, ACCN)
[57]Notre Dame (5-2) (-6) hosts [98]NC State (3-6) (9:00, ACCNX)

Thursday and Friday are dark

Saturday
[109]Louisville (5-4) (+9) hosts [10]Duke (5-2) (12:00, ESPN)
[139]Georgia Tech (1-6) (+4) hosts [62]Miami (6-2) (12:00, ACCNX)
[43]North Carolina (4-3) (-8) hosts [98]NC State (3-6) (2:00, ACCN)
[54]Florida State (6-2) (-1) hosts [37]Virginia Tech (2-5) (3:00, ABC)
[131]Boston College (3-4) (-6) hosts [196]Pittsburgh (2-6) (4:00, ACCN)
[57]Notre Dame (5-2) (-6) hosts [93]Virginia (5-4) (6:00, ACCN)
[83]Syracuse (3-5) (+1) hosts [34]Wake Forest (6-3) (8:00, ACCN)

Sunday is dark

ACC Conference-Only Efficiency Margin
Duke - +14.1
Wake Forest - +10.4
Miami - +9.1
North Carolina - +5.4 (this was +22.3 a week ago)
Notre Dame - +3.5
Clemson - +0.6
Syracuse - -0.3
NC State - -0.5
Florida State - -1.1
Louisville - -3.6
Boston College - -4.9
Virginia - -6.1
Virginia Tech - -7.9
Pittsburgh - -7.9
Georgia Tech - -14.1

ACC Non-Conference: 108-53
ACC v. Power 6: 18-30

Thanks for posting this as usual. But what ratings are you using? The NET ratings are pretty different than those. It was Va Tech that caught my eye, but then I realized a lot of them are off. Per the NET, as of tonight, it's :

Duke 10
Wake 40
UNC 51
Va Tech 52
FSU 57
Miami 68
Notre Dame 70
Climpson 76
Syracuse 97
Virginia 100 (!)
Louisville 113 (!)
NC State 114
BC 156
Ga Tech 178
Pitt 203

Here's my source for those numbers:
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basket...l-net-rankings

[pfrduke]

Thanks for posting this as usual. But what ratings are you using? The NET ratings are pretty different than those. It was Va Tech that caught my eye, but then I realized a lot of them are off. Per the NET, as of tonight, it's :

Duke 10
Wake 40
UNC 51
Va Tech 52
FSU 57
Miami 68
Notre Dame 70
Climpson 76
Syracuse 97
Virginia 100 (!)
Louisville 113 (!)
NC State 114
BC 156
Ga Tech 178
Pitt 203

Here's my source for those numbers:
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basket...l-net-rankings

Pomeroy is the rating/spread source

[CameronDuke]

Close to must win game season for many teams starting tonight to generate some momentum to have any shot at an NCAAT appearance, including Virginia Tech at UNC-CH and both UVa and Louisville.

[CameronDuke]

UVa is 12-2 against Louisville since they joined the ACC.

[Matches]

UNC/VT may be a must-win for both teams.

[JasonEvans]

UNC/VT may be a must-win for both teams.

Depends on what you mean by "must win."

I find it really hard to construct a "they make the tourney" scenario for VT unless they win 2 of their next 3 challenging games against top-tier ACC squads.

UNC would most assuredly still have a path to the NCAA tourney if they fall to VT tonight. Though it starts to get dicey.

[CDu]

Depends on what you mean by "must win."

I find it really hard to construct a "they make the tourney" scenario for VT unless they win 2 of their next 3 challenging games against top-tier ACC squads.

UNC would most assuredly still have a path to the NCAA tourney if they fall to VT tonight. Though it starts to get dicey.

I could easily see a scenario in which VT makes the tourney despite losing 2 of the next 3. Doing so would put them at 3-7. But their schedule is MUCH lighter in the back half. If they win out from there (they are currently favored by 4+ points in all but 2, with those 2 being basically toss-ups), they'd be 13-7 in conference and 21-10 overall, and very likely top-40 in NET. And probably top-5 in the conference. So it's not really even a must-win for VT.

That said, it'd be a really nice to have. If they are 4-6 after their next 3 games (Torvik views this one as their toughest), I'd say they are actually reasonably well-positioned to get in based on their NET and their remaining schedule. Then, just winning the games they're supposed to win would get them to 12-8 and 20-11 overall, but with at least 2 wins over UNC/Miami/FSU in that scenario.

Of course, the key is they need to start winning with consistency. Do I think that's likely? Probably not. But the scenario is there, with or without a win tonight (or even a win this week).

Definitely agree that UNC's path does not rely on this game. But it wouldn't be helpful for them to lose it either.

UVa and Louisville both need this win to keep their realistic at-large hopes alive. I don't think either will get in, but they can't give away games against the other middling ACC teams if they want to make a charge up the standings.

[JasonEvans]

I could easily see a scenario in which VT makes the tourney despite losing 2 of the next 3. Doing so would put them at 3-7. But their schedule is MUCH lighter in the back half. If they win out from there (they are currently favored by 4+ points in all but 2, with those 2 being basically toss-ups), they'd be 13-7 in conference and 21-10 overall, and very likely top-40 in NET. And probably top-5 in the conference. So it's not really even a must-win for VT.

Well... as you point out they will be heavy favorites in almost all their games after this 3 game stretch, but that is because they will be playing weak ACC teams for the most part. So, sure, they would be getting wins but they won't be getting wins that are meaningful to the committee. I'm not sure where Maryland is in the NET, but that win at MD is the only thing VT has so far that is close to a quad 1 victory. Virginia Tech needs something to hang their hat upon... something that says, "we do deserve to play with other tourney-level teams." If they lose this trio of games, there is precious little left on their schedule that would allow them to say that.

[chrishoke]

WF is doubling BC 33-16.

[CDu]

Well... as you point out they will be heavy favorites in almost all their games after this 3 game stretch, but that is because they will be playing weak ACC teams for the most part. So, sure, they would be getting wins but they won't be getting wins that are meaningful to the committee. I'm not sure where Maryland is in the NET, but that win at MD is the only thing VT has so far that is close to a quad 1 victory. Virginia Tech needs something to hang their hat upon... something that says, "we do deserve to play with other tourney-level teams." If they lose this trio of games, there is precious little left on their schedule that would allow them to say that.

If they finish 13-7 in conference, they'll have beaten enough bubble (or outright tourney) teams to get in. I think you're underestimating how bad teams' resumes are at the bubble level.

The challenge, of course, is whether or not they can get to 13-7. I doubt they will. But they can.

[tommy]

Well... as you point out they will be heavy favorites in almost all their games after this 3 game stretch, but that is because they will be playing weak ACC teams for the most part. So, sure, they would be getting wins but they won't be getting wins that are meaningful to the committee. I'm not sure where Maryland is in the NET, but that win at MD is the only thing VT has so far that is close to a quad 1 victory. Virginia Tech needs something to hang their hat upon... something that says, "we do deserve to play with other tourney-level teams." If they lose this trio of games, there is precious little left on their schedule that would allow them to say that.

The Terps are at 99 right now in the NET. Long way to go for them to get into Q1 territory for VT. And from seeing them play last week, I'd be surprised if they get up to 75. They're terrible.

[cato]

The Terps are at 99 right now in the NET. Long way to go for them to get into Q1 territory for VT. And from seeing them play last week, I'd be surprised if they get up to 75. They're terrible.

I can’t decide which thing I like better: that I had zero idea whether MD was any good this year or that they in fact are not.

ETA: it turns out what I like better is turning on the TV to find Louisville getting spanked by a mediocre UVA team.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Louisville is down 22-5 against Virginia. It appears that Chris Mack is losing his team.

Duke plays at the KFC Yum! Center on Saturday.

[CameronDuke]

Has Chris Mack lost his team?

They look pathetic. They got booed off their home floor Saturday and they respond like this?

Gross.

[Tripping William]

Deacs beat BC by 30. Their 4th straight conference win. Looks like Forbes is building a little sumpin’-sumpin’ in Hyphentown.

[CameronDuke]

Deacs beat BC by 30. Their 4th straight conference win. Looks like Forbes is building a little sumpin’-sumpin’ in Hyphentown.

Me thinks he’ll win ACC COY. Wake was picked 13th in the preseason ACC poll and are 5th. They have the most overall as well as ACC wins currently, too.

[roywhite]

Deacs beat BC by 30. Their 4th straight conference win. Looks like Forbes is building a little sumpin’-sumpin’ in Hyphentown.

Yeah, though the fan base is a little slow hopping on board.

LJVM was almost full for our game (attendance of 14,213 on capacity of 14,655) and nearly 12,000 for their beatdown of the Tarheels.
Looks like a crowd of less than 5,000 (according to LiveStats, which might not be the final count) for the win over BC.

[CDu]

Me thinks he’ll win ACC COY. Wake was picked 13th in the preseason ACC poll and are 5th. They have the most overall as well as ACC wins currently, too.

Yeah, it will be either him or Larranaga. But I agree he seems the front runner.

[CameronDuke]

UVa beats Louisville 64-52. UVa is 12-8, 6-4.

Louisville is 11-9, 5-5.

I don’t see Louisville making the NCAAT this year the way they’ve looked the last 6 games. They’ve lost 5 of them.*

*they have a shot at a signature win vs Duke Saturday at noon at home.