Duke MBB v Clemson (1/25, 7:00 PM EST, ESPN2) Pre-game and In-game Thread

[DavidBenAkiva]

Following a crush of the Orange on Saturday afternoon, Duke looks to cage the orange-attired Clemson Tigers on Tuesday evening. This game will be before a big-time road trip, where Duke will visit reeling Louisville, a makeup date with Notre Dame, and then the first matchup with North Carolina (also reeling). Before that big trip, head coach Brad Brownell and his Tigers visit Cameron.

Brownell received a contract extension last summer after taking a veteran Clemson team to the NCAA Tournament for the third time. This year's team is a mix of younger and older players. Last year's squad was led by the veteran post player, Aamir Sims. They were a tough squad, more defense-oriented. This year's squad is led by 6'10" SO C PJ Hall, a polar opposite to Sims in a way. Whereas Sims was someone that had an old-school game and would use a variety of moves, up-and-unders, angles, and things you might see at the YMCA to score, Hall is a more modern F/C that can run the court, shoot it a little, and score from all over. He does most of his damage around the rim, where Hall is shooting a very impressive 70+%. He can and does take shots from all over and is a pretty decent 3-point shooter out of the pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop. Like Hall, this Clemson squad is much less defensively inclined but more efficient on offense when compared to last year.

The strength of the Clemson offense is shooting. They have plenty of guys that can make a jumper, including 6'2" JR G Al-Amir Dawes, and 6'4" SR G David Collins. Dawes is the other offensive focal point besides Hall and handles the PnR with him quite a bit. Collins is much more of a wing and, while he shoots well from deep, is trying to get to the rim more often than not. The other PnR ball-handler is 5'10" JR G Nick Honor, who is not really a PG but plays the role more or less for this Clemson team. Like Dawes, Honor is a pretty good shooter and takes the second most 3's on the team. Just about the only player that doesn't shoot the ball well from deep is former Youngstown State grad transfer 6'6" F Naz Bohannon. The other regular rotation players include 6'8" SR F Hunter Tyson, a 6'8" stretch 4.

Brownell plays a lot of off-ball cutting action for his team in addition to all the pick-and-rolls with Hall. Defensively, they are kind of a mess. They do rebound the ball well off the defensive glass, but that's about it. They don't appear to have much of a defensive identify from what I can tell. If Duke is able to run shooters off the line and still protect the paint, the Blue Devils should have a relatively easy go of it in this one. Containing Hall is job #1 for the Duke defense. It would help to put pressure on him when Duke has the ball, as he's just about their only true center. Outside of Hall and the F Tyson, they don't have much size. Keeping the lane occupied will be the challenge and dealing with the pick-and-rolls. Duke should be able to run its offense without too much resistance. If they can slow down the Tigers, it should be a safe win.

[gofurman]

sometimes I don't get computer ranks:

Kenpom has Miami and Clemson as tied at 63 or so. I think Miami is far better...

[CDu]

sometimes I don't get computer ranks:

Kenpom has Miami and Clemson as tied at 63 or so. I think Miami is far better...

All about season-long. Miami was AWFUL in November snd December, while Clemson was quite solid. Snd they have since switched in January.

[Natty_B]

Unless the I read the schedule wrong. After this game, and thanks to Covid, Duke will have 12 left and 8 of those will be on the road. Including 5 of the next 6. Sheesh.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Unless the I read the schedule wrong. After this game, and thanks to Covid, Duke will have 12 left and 8 of those will be on the road. Including 5 of the next 6. Sheesh.

Covid or no Covid, that was always going to be the case. Better to have a home-heavy schedule in the beginning of the ACC season than an away-heavy schedule.

[CameronDuke]

Unless the I read the schedule wrong. After this game, and thanks to Covid, Duke will have 12 left and 8 of those will be on the road. Including 5 of the next 6. Sheesh.

What’s the over / under on Duke Ls in the ACC regular season set at based on the facts of their remaining schedule and heavily weighted road schedule?

They have 2 Ls in the ACC currently.

Over / under of 5.5?

Does 5 Ls in the 2021-2022 ACC regular season get them their 1st outright ACC regular season championship since 2006 in this Coach K’s last year as head men’s basketball coach? Does 6 Ls?

Does Miami, FL hold the tiebreaker over Duke if they end tied for the ACC regular season title since they meet just once this year and Miami, FL got the W against Duke?

[CDu]

Covid or no Covid, that was always going to be the case. Better to have a home-heavy schedule in the beginning of the ACC season than an away-heavy schedule.

No, not really. We moved 2 road games early on to right into the middle of the schedule where we already had a stretch of road games.

Had the ACC schedule played out like normal, it would have been: HAAHAHAHHAAHAHHAAAHA. That's pretty balanced.

Instead, it looks like this: HHAHAHHAAAHAAHHAAAHA. We now have a 5 in 6 away stretch AND a 4 in 5 away stretch, split only by a pair of home games in mid-February. Prior to that, we had just the 4 in 5 away stretch at the end. Most more road-heavy now for the back half of the schedule.

[CDu]

What’s the over / under on Duke Ls in the ACC regular season set at based on the facts of their remaining schedule and heavily weighted road schedule?

They have 2 Ls in the ACC currently.

Over / under of 5.5?

I would take the under, but barely. I think "5" is the best guess. That's what Torvik thinks, and I suspect Pomeroy does too.

Does 5 Ls in the 2021-2022 ACC regular season get them their 1st outright ACC regular season championship since 2006 in this Coach K’s last year as head men’s basketball coach? Does 6 Ls?

Probably, with either 5 or 6. Torvik predicts a bunch of teams at 7 and 8 losses, with Duke at 5. So 5 or 6 probably wins it.

Does Miami, FL hold the tiebreaker over Duke if they end tied for the ACC regular season title since they meet just once this year and Miami, FL got the W against Duke?

Yes, Miami has the tiebreaker in a two-team tie with Duke. But, still a lot of season to go before we need to worry about tiebreakers.

[MarkD83]

What’s the over / under on Duke Ls in the ACC regular season set at based on the facts of their remaining schedule and heavily weighted road schedule?

They have 2 Ls in the ACC currently.

Over / under of 5.5?

Does 5 Ls in the 2021-2022 ACC regular season get them their 1st outright ACC regular season championship since 2006 in this Coach K’s last year as head men’s basketball coach? Does 6 Ls?

Does Miami, FL hold the tiebreaker over Duke if they end tied for the ACC regular season title since they meet just once this year and Miami, FL got the W against Duke?

Miami and FSU do not have enough games against top-tier ACC teams left on their schedules to get to 5-6 losses. They could always lose an unexpected game (VT this week for example). So my guess is that 4 losses is about all Duke could tolerate to even tie for 1st place. Getting a double bye in the ACC tournament is a different story. 5-6 losses may be OK.

[sagegrouse]

Miami and FSU do not have enough games against top-tier ACC teams left on their schedules to get to 5-6 losses. They could always lose an unexpected game (VT this week for example). So my guess is that 4 losses is about all Duke could tolerate to even tie for 1st place. Getting a double bye in the ACC tournament is a different story. 5-6 losses may be OK.

Number one in the regular season plus winning the ACCT equals a #1 seed, IMHO (where the H got whacked in 2003 by the sign reading "Marry Me, JJ!").

[Kedsy]

Miami and FSU do not have enough games against top-tier ACC teams left on their schedules to get to 5-6 losses. They could always lose an unexpected game (VT this week for example). So my guess is that 4 losses is about all Duke could tolerate to even tie for 1st place. Getting a double bye in the ACC tournament is a different story. 5-6 losses may be OK.

I believe both Pomeroy and Torvik project both Miami and FSU to have 7 ACC losses, so I'm not sure you're right about this.

[MarkD83]

I believe both Pomeroy and Torvik project both Miami and FSU to have 7 ACC losses, so I'm not sure you're right about this.

In an unabashed move of self-promotion...I coped this post from the thread I started about ACC schedules.

There are 5 teams at the top fighting for the 4 double byes in the ACC tournament. These teams are FSU, Miami, Duke, ND and Wake. The next three teams are struggling to keep a single bye; unc, UVA and Louisville. The other seven teams are below 0.500 at this point and are trying to avoid having to play in the first round.

So with that break down here are the remaining games for the top 5 categorized by games against the top 5 and then next 3.

FSU 3 games against top 5 / 2 games against next 3
Miami 2 / 3
Duke 3 / 5
ND 4 / 2
Wake 4 / 1

I am going to assume that each of these teams take care of their games against the "next 3" but Duke has 5 such games which gives them more chances to slip up. If any of the top teams lose to a bottom 7 team then they are in real danger of not getting a double bye.

So after that let's look at games between the Top 5.

FSU plays Wake, @ Duke and ND; They are currently 3-1 vs the other Top 5 teams.
Miami plays ND and @ Wake; 2-2 vs Top 5.
Duke plays @ ND, Wake and FSU. 1-2 vs Top 5.
ND plays Duke, @ Miami, @ Wake and @ FSU. 0-0 vs Top 5.
Wake plays @FSU, Miami, @ Duke, ND. 1-2 vs Top 5.


The other 2 games that FSU has against the next 3 are @UVA and @unc
The other 3 games that Miami has against the next 3 are @UVA, @ Louis and home against UVA.

Unless FSU and Miami lose multiple games to ACC teams that currently have below 0.500 records, I don't see how they get 5 more losses.
It was pointed out that some teams like VT are more highly rated than is reflected in their record, but based on how the teams have actually done on the court 7 loses for Miami or FSU does not seem in line with actual performance.

Of course this week will tell us a lot and I hope VT beats unc, FSU and Miami in their next 3 games.

[scottdude8]

In an unabashed move of self-promotion...I coped this post from the thread I started about ACC schedules.

There are 5 teams at the top fighting for the 4 double byes in the ACC tournament. These teams are FSU, Miami, Duke, ND and Wake. The next three teams are struggling to keep a single bye; unc, UVA and Louisville. The other seven teams are below 0.500 at this point and are trying to avoid having to play in the first round.

So with that break down here are the remaining games for the top 5 categorized by games against the top 5 and then next 3.

FSU 3 games against top 5 / 2 games against next 3
Miami 2 / 3
Duke 3 / 5
ND 4 / 2
Wake 4 / 1

I am going to assume that each of these teams take care of their games against the "next 3" but Duke has 5 such games which gives them more chances to slip up. If any of the top teams lose to a bottom 7 team then they are in real danger of not getting a double bye.

So after that let's look at games between the Top 5.

FSU plays Wake, @ Duke and ND; They are currently 3-1 vs the other Top 5 teams.
Miami plays ND and @ Wake; 2-2 vs Top 5.
Duke plays @ ND, Wake and FSU. 1-2 vs Top 5.
ND plays Duke, @ Miami, @ Wake and @ FSU. 0-0 vs Top 5.
Wake plays @FSU, Miami, @ Duke, ND. 1-2 vs Top 5.


The other 2 games that FSU has against the next 3 are @UVA and @unc
The other 3 games that Miami has against the next 3 are @UVA, @ Louis and home against UVA.

Unless FSU and Miami lose multiple games to ACC teams that currently have below 0.500 records, I don't see how they get 5 more losses.
It was pointed out that some teams like VT are more highly rated than is reflected in their record, but based on how the teams have actually done on the court 7 loses for Miami or FSU does not seem in line with actual performance.

Of course this week will tell us a lot and I hope VT beats unc, FSU and Miami in their next 3 games.

In my view, it seems likely that the ACC will come down to us and the two Florida squads, considering ND's record is inflated a bit by not playing any of the other top teams (plus having three such games remaining on the road) and us having already beaten Wake and getting them again at home. While Miami and FSU have been stellar as of late, we have to remember there is a reason they aren't Top 25 teams given how much they struggled early. These are not juggernaut teams, and there's every reason to believe those early-season struggles could rear their heads again, especially on the road (where bubble teams will look at them as "resume" games).

FSU beating Miami this weekend helped since we play FSU again but not Miami. With that taken care of, in my mind we just have to take care of our own business, and that starts by not only winning, but growing, in our few remaining home contests. Clemson tomorrow is one such opportunity.

FWIW, this isn't a meaningless game as it pertains to our resume. Clemson is currently just outside the NET Top 75 (they're 76), meaning this game could easily end up a Q2 game come season's end. While a down ACC limits our chances at Q1 wins, the higher "floor" of ACC teams means we're going to have more chances for the good-not-great wins represented by Q2 than teams in the Pac 12, for instance. That could be a factor come Selection Sunday.

[Kedsy]

Unless FSU and Miami lose multiple games to ACC teams that currently have below 0.500 records, I don't see how they get 5 more losses.
It was pointed out that some teams like VT are more highly rated than is reflected in their record, but based on how the teams have actually done on the court 7 loses for Miami or FSU does not seem in line with actual performance.

An analysis based on wins and losses alone is a shallow analysis. The ditching of the RPI shows that even the NCAA tournament committee has acknowledged the inadequacy of relying on a rating based solely on wins and losses.

Miami will be an underdog in their games @Va Tech, @Virginia, @Wake Forest, @Louisville, and @Syracuse. Their home games with Notre Dame and Virginia Tech and their road games @Ga Tech and @BC will be projected to be close wins. I'm not saying they'll definitely lose all the games in which they're underdogs, but they probably won't win all the games in which they're projected to win close, either. Is it possible that Miami continues its improbable ACC run and ends up with 4 or 5 losses? Sure. But it will be surprising if they end up with fewer than 7 losses.

FSU will be an underdog in their games @Clemson, @UNC, and @Duke. Their game @Virginia is basically a coin flip. They're projected to win close in their home games with Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, and their road games @Ga Tech and @BC. They have a better chance than Miami to lose fewer than 6 or 7 games, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[MarkD83]

An analysis based on wins and losses alone is a shallow analysis. The ditching of the RPI shows that even the NCAA tournament committee has acknowledged the inadequacy of relying on a rating based solely on wins and losses.

Miami will be an underdog in their games @Va Tech, @Virginia, @Wake Forest, @Louisville, and @Syracuse. Their home games with Notre Dame and Virginia Tech and their road games @Ga Tech and @BC will be projected to be close wins. I'm not saying they'll definitely lose all the games in which they're underdogs, but they probably won't win all the games in which they're projected to win close, either. Is it possible that Miami continues its improbable ACC run and ends up with 4 or 5 losses? Sure. But it will be surprising if they end up with fewer than 7 losses.

FSU will be an underdog in their games @Clemson, @UNC, and @Duke. Their game @Virginia is basically a coin flip. They're projected to win close in their home games with Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, and their road games @Ga Tech and @BC. They have a better chance than Miami to lose fewer than 6 or 7 games, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I am not doing a rating, I am just looking at a schedule analysis. FSU and Miami have easier schedules going forward. To get to 7 losses they need 5 losses each and only 5 games scheduled against the teams who are currently above 0.500 in the ACC.

So I do have a question? Are the various computer ratings related to the entire schedule (non-conference and conference)? is there a computer rating that just considers conference games? I ask this because the hypothetical "conference only" ratings would have the most interconnectivity. Let me take VT as an example. They played and lost close games to Xavier and Memphis who were both top 25 teams at the time. Do these close losses inflate their rating? If we exclude them from VTs rating, is Miami still an underdog to VT. (Of course in the ACC any road game should be considered a loss until proven otherwise.)

[CDu]

I am not doing a rating, I am just looking at a schedule analysis. FSU and Miami have easier schedules going forward. To get to 7 losses they need 5 losses each and only 5 games scheduled against the teams who are currently above 0.500 in the ACC.

So I do have a question? Are the various computer ratings related to the entire schedule (non-conference and conference)? is there a computer rating that just considers conference games? I ask this because the hypothetical "conference only" ratings would have the most interconnectivity. Let me take VT as an example. They played and lost close games to Xavier and Memphis who were both top 25 teams at the time. Do these close losses inflate their rating? If we exclude them from VTs rating, is Miami still an underdog to VT. (Of course in the ACC any road game should be considered a loss until proven otherwise.)

The ratings systems take all games into account.

[uh_no]

The ratings systems take all games into account.

and even more to the point, the fact that they were highly rated at the time is irrelevant, as the systems have no memory (you don't need to know what teams past ratings were to evaluate their current rating). I don't think even NET has memory.

[CDu]

Unless FSU and Miami lose multiple games to ACC teams that currently have below 0.500 records, I don't see how they get 5 more losses.

And why do we assume that FSU and Miami won't lose any games to teams with .500 or below ACC records? FSU could quite reasonably lose at Clemson, at UNC, vs Wake, at Duke, at UVa. Games vs VT and Notre Dame are losable too. They did, for example, lose by 22 to Wake in Winston-Salem, and to Syracuse at home. They are certainly not immune.

Miami has played extremely well in conference so far, but they did lose to UCF at home and got blown out by Dayton. And they struggled to beat FAU. They have several losable games left: @VT, @UVa, @Wake, @Louisville, @Syracuse, vs VT, vs ND.

It's certainly possible that those two teams avoid any pitfalls along the way. But I wouldn't assume that they will do so.

[Kedsy]

I am not doing a rating, I am just looking at a schedule analysis. FSU and Miami have easier schedules going forward. To get to 7 losses they need 5 losses each and only 5 games scheduled against the teams who are currently above 0.500 in the ACC.

Based on your above statement, you are evaluating the schedule based pretty much solely on wins and losses. In my opinion, that's not the most rigorous or accurate way to evaluate.

[CDu]

and even more to the point, the fact that they were highly rated at the time is irrelevant, as the systems have no memory (you don't need to know what teams past ratings were to evaluate their current rating). I don't think even NET has memory.

Yep.