ACC assessment and "balanced" schedule

[MarkD83]

Now that we are more than 1/3 the way through the ACC season we can start to look at the remaining schedule and who has the advantage in scheduling.

Based on JD's article on the front page...

https://www.dukebasketballreport.com...el-jim-boeheim

There are 5 teams at the top fighting for the 4 double byes in the ACC tournament. These teams are FSU, Miami, Duke, ND and Wake. The next three teams are struggling to keep a single bye; unc, UVA and Louisville. The other seven teams are below 0.500 at this point and are trying to avoid having to play in the first round.

So with that break down here are the remaining games for the top 5 categorized by games against the top 5 and then next 3.

FSU 3 games against top 5 / 2 games against next 3
Miami 2 / 3
Duke 3 / 5
ND 4 / 2
Wake 4 / 1

I am going to assume that each of these teams take care of their games against the "next 3" but Duke has 5 such games which gives them more chances to slip up. If any of the top teams lose to a bottom 7 team then they are in real danger of not getting a double bye.

So after that let's look at games between the Top 5.

FSU plays Wake, @ Duke and ND; They are currently 3-1 vs the other Top 5 teams.
Miami plays ND and @ Wake; 2-2 vs Top 5.
Duke plays @ ND, Wake and FSU. 1-2 vs Top 5.
ND plays Duke, @ Miami, @ Wake and @ FSU. 0-0 vs Top 5.
Wake plays @FSU, Miami, @ Duke, ND. 1-2 vs Top 5.



ND has the toughest path to get one of the top 4 spots and since they have not played any of the other Top 5 there are no transitive games to assess their chances. They are my guess to be number 5.

Wake has the second toughest path and the home game with Miami is almost a must win.

Miami has the easiest path with only 2 Top 5 games. The game @ Wake will go a long way to determine if they get the 1 seed.

That leaves FSU and Duke. The FSU @ Duke game could be for the top seed in the ACC tournament.

My prediction: Duke, FSU, Miami, Wake getting double byes and ND in fifth. I am not bold enough to predict who gets what seed due to tie-breakers.

[JasonEvans]

Solid stuff, Mark and spot on. I agree with your assessment that Notre Dame seems to be a bit out of place in that top tier. They are only 1 game up on UNC and with 0 games against the best teams in the conference so far, I feel like ND shouldn't really be placed on a different level than the Tar Heels, especially since the computers seem to think UNC is the better team.

It is still early enough in the schedule so that teams could be mis-tiered relative to their strength. I mean, Va Tech is in your bottom 7 but is the 3rd best team in the conference according to the advanced metrics. Ok, those 5 losses almost certainly rule them out for the double bye, but they would seem to be good enough to still have a decent shot at the single bye. They've got UNC, Miami, and FSU over the next 10 days and the computers say they have a very good shot in all of those games (they will be a decent favorite over Miami). Winning even 2-out-of-3 in that stretch could put VT right back in the middle-tier race.

[MarkD83]

Solid stuff, Mark and spot on. I agree with your assessment that Notre Dame seems to be a bit out of place in that top tier. They are only 1 game up on UNC and with 0 games against the best teams in the conference so far, I feel like ND shouldn't really be placed on a different level than the Tar Heels, especially since the computers seem to think UNC is the better team.

It is still early enough in the schedule so that teams could be mis-tiered relative to their strength. I mean, Va Tech is in your bottom 7 but is the 3rd best team in the conference according to the advanced metrics. Ok, those 5 losses almost certainly rule them out for the double bye, but they would seem to be good enough to still have a decent shot at the single bye. They've got UNC, Miami, and FSU over the next 10 days and the computers say they have a very good shot in all of those games (they will be a decent favorite over Miami). Winning even 2-out-of-3 in that stretch could put VT right back in the middle-tier race.

VT could be a very interesting spoiler in all of this. If they do win 2 of 3 against UNC, Miami and FSU, this would be great for Duke and Wake in terms of the double byes.

Let's hope the "advanced metrics" VT shows up this week.

[chrishoke]

VT could be a very interesting spoiler in all of this. If they do win 2 of 3 against UNC, Miami and FSU, this would be great for Duke and Wake in terms of the double byes.

Let's hope the "advanced metrics" VT shows up this week.

I don't think they will win any of the three.

[MarkD83]

I will upgrade my flawed analysis but add some explanation as to its purpose.
It is NOT a way to predict results. That is indeed better left to the computer models.

It is a way to look at "magic numbers" similar to baseball. That is, computer modeling suggests that the winner of the ACC regular season will be 15-5 (Duke is the predicted winner.) So, all of the other teams need 6 or more losses to be eliminated from winning the regular season. It also means at 6-2 Duke (God forbid) can absorb 3 more losses.

If we look at the current standings; VT, GT, NCSU, Pitt, Clemson, Syracuse and BC have been mathematically eliminated. Louisville with 5 losses and being in disarray with their coach might as well be eliminated so I have put them in the "eliminated" category.

That leaves; Miami, ND, FSU, Wake, unc and UVA still mathematically in the race with different number of losses to be eliminated.

The bottom 8 teams are all capable of beating the top 7 teams (FSU vs GT). My analysis is how many games are left between the top 7 and can the 6 teams still in contention besides Duke get to 6 losses without having to rely on a loss to a bottom 8 team.

This brings me to the remaining games between the top 7.

I will put Duke at the top of this list with just one quick comment.
Duke can help themselves against every team except Miami and can eliminate UVA without needing any help from other teams.

Duke (6-2) 7 left unc x2, UVA x2, ND, Wake, FSU

Miami (7-2) 4 UVA x2, ND, Wake
Notre Dame (6-2) 5 UVA, Duke, Mia, Wake, FSU
Wake Forest (7-3) 4 FSU, Mia, Duke, ND
Florida State (6-3) 5 Wake, unc, Duke, UVA, ND
North Carolina (6-3) 3 Duke x2, FSU
Virginia (5-4) 6 Mia x2, Duke x2, ND, FSU

If Miami and unc win just 1 game against the other top 7 and take care of business against the bottom 8 they are NOT eliminated.

So clearly cheering for Miami and unc to lose all top 7 games is easy.
Having UVA lose twice to Duke gets them out of the way and then we want them to beat Miami twice, ND and FSU.

ND needs to beat Miami and lose to UVA, Duke, Wake and FSU.

Wake needs to beat Miami and then things get complicated...Duke can give them a loss and so can FSU but to eliminate ND, Wake gets the win they need to stay alive. The ND/Wake result can be switched and then ND gets the win they need to stay alive.

FSU would then have wins against unc, Wake and ND, a loss to Duke and a loss to UVA This means they are NOT eliminated.

This means there are some Top 7 vs Bottom 8 "upsets" that have to occur for Duke to win the ACC regular season outright. (Man that Miami miracle at VT looms large right now.)

All of this of course means that Duke wins all of their games against the top 7 and absorbs their 3 possible losses from the bottom 8. A better target for Duke to win the ACC may be 16-4.

[MarkD83]

I should probably let this thread fade away, but I will give one more update.

If Duke needs to be at 15-5 to win the ACC regular season, things got very simple today.

UVA, Louis, Syr, BC, Clem, Pitt, GT, NCSU and GT already have 5 or more losses.

Duke can give a 5th loss to Wake and FSU...and if they beat unc twice that gives unc the 5th loss.

That leaves Miami and ND needing 3 losses.

ND can get 3 more losses from Duke, FSU and Wake (teams in the top 6).
Miami can get 2 more losses from ND and Wake (teams in the top 6).

Now the statistical question...what is the probability of Miami getting 1 loss from the other teams left on their schedule and which team has the highest probability of doing that.

In this 15-5 wins the ACC scenario, Duke can still absorb 3 losses out of 6 games with UVa x2, Syr, BC, Clem, Pitt. For each fewer loss in these games things get easier.

So other than Duke games where we want them to win all of them I am cheering for

FSU over ND
Wake over ND
ND over Mia
Wake over Mia
One other loss for Mia

FSU over unc also can help the cause but we always cheer against unc.

The other games have much less importance.

[UrinalCake]

I am enjoying your analysis. The fact that Miami has maintained a lead this far into the conference season is a bit surprising, and applying a lot of pressure for us to keep pace. I wish we had another shot at them in the regular season, but since we don’t then we just have to hope for someone else to take them down as you’ve said. At this point I’m not sure five losses will win the conference.

[arnie]

I am enjoying your analysis. The fact that Miami has maintained a lead this far into the conference season is a bit surprising, and applying a lot of pressure for us to keep pace. I wish we had another shot at them in the regular season, but since we don’t then we just have to hope for someone else to take them down as you’ve said. At this point I’m not sure five losses will win the conference.

It’s all conjecture, but I think 5 losses at least ties for conference reg season. Except for blowout of Cheats, Miami has managed to win a lot of reasonably close games and isn’t dominating opponents (they are not 1999 Duke😀.) Both Miami and Duke have numerous games I think they can lose and I’m not believer in Notre Dame or Cheats ability to consistently dominate like we saw yesterday.

Teams in the upper middle of the conference will be desperate for wins as regular season winds down.

[MarkD83]

I am enjoying your analysis. The fact that Miami has maintained a lead this far into the conference season is a bit surprising, and applying a lot of pressure for us to keep pace. I wish we had another shot at them in the regular season, but since we don’t then we just have to hope for someone else to take them down as you’ve said. At this point I’m not sure five losses will win the conference.

If 16-4 ties for first, it is harder to get there since Duke can only take 2 more losses but the analysis is easier.

The only teams that do not have 4 losses are Miami, ND and unc

Duke can give unc its 4th losses.
They can give ND a 3rd loss.

If I just focus on the top 6 then...
Miami would need to lose to Wake and ND.
ND would need to lose to either FSU or Wake

Any other loss that Miami, ND or unc pick up to any other team makes life easier.

[CDu]

If 16-4 ties for first, it is harder to get there since Duke can only take 2 more losses but the analysis is easier.

The only teams that do not have 4 losses are Miami, ND and unc

Duke can give unc its 4th losses.
They can give ND a 3rd loss.

If I just focus on the top 6 then...
Miami would need to lose to Wake and ND.
ND would need to lose to either FSU or Wake

Any other loss that Miami, ND or unc pick up to any other team makes life easier.

I mentioned in the other thread, but FSU just recently lost Osborne for the season, and they have a tough second half. I don’t think they belong in the discussion. I think there is a top 5 (maybe: UNC is Jeckyll and Hyde) that could win the conference, then a group of .500 caliber teams (FSU, Clemson, Louisville, UVa, VT, and Syracuse) that can beat anyone but aren’t good enough to threaten for the conference, then 4 teams (GT, Pitt, BC, NC St) for whom a loss would be an awful outcome.

[MarkD83]

I mentioned in the other thread, but FSU just recently lost Osborne for the season, and they have a tough second half. I don’t think they belong in the discussion. I think there is a top 5 (maybe: UNC is Jeckyll and Hyde) that could win the conference, then a group of .500 caliber teams (FSU, Clemson, Louisville, UVa, VT, and Syracuse) that can beat anyone but aren’t good enough to threaten for the conference, then 4 teams (GT, Pitt, BC, NC St) for whom a loss would be an awful outcome.

Let me ponder how easy my analyses will be if I divide up future games as you suggest...

15-5 is still the target...6 teams that are threats to give losses but are not in contention (FSU, Clemson, Louisville, UVa, VT, and Syracuse) and 5 teams in contention (Miami, Duke, ND, unc and Wake)

[MarkD83]

Let me ponder how easy my analyses will be if I divide up future games as you suggest...

15-5 is still the target...6 teams that are threats to give losses but are not in contention (FSU, Clemson, Louisville, UVa, VT, and Syracuse) and 5 teams in contention (Miami, Duke, ND, unc and Wake)

Here we go with the new analysis.

Miami is 3-0 vs the "new top 5" and 3-2 against the "new next 6".
Duke is 1-1 and 3-1
ND is 1-0 and 4-1
unc is 0-3 and 2-0
Wake is 1-2 and 4-2

Miami's remaining "top 5" games are: 2 vs ND and Wake and "next 6" games are: 5 vs UVA x2, Louis, VT, Syr
Duke: 4 vs unc x2, ND, Wake and 5 vs UVA x2; Clem, FSU, Syr
ND: 3 vs Miami, Wake, Duke and 4 vs Louis, Clem, FSU, Syr
unc: 2 vs Duke and 6 vs Louis x2, Clem, VT, FSU, Syr
Wake: 3 vs Mia, Duke, ND and 3 vs FSU, Clem, Louis

I am going to still assume that 15-5 wins the ACC but now I am going to assume that we want Duke to win outright so every other team needs 6 losses. All teams in the "new next 6" and the bottom 4 except UVA and FSU have 6 losses. I will assume that UVA and FSU somehow get to 6 losses and will ignore that they need losses (lots of assumptions that may make an....).

Miami needs 4 losses to ND, Wake and 2/5 losses from the "next 6"
ND needs 4 losses to Wake, Duke and 2/4
unc needs 3 losses to Duke x2 and 1/6
Wake needs 2 losses to Duke and 1/3

In this scenario, Duke can still absorb 3 losses from the 5 remaining games with the "next 6".

[CDu]

In this scenario, Duke can still absorb 3 losses from the 5 remaining games with the "next 6".

I think this iteration is the right way to look at it.

We can do ourselves a huge favor by winning both games this week.

[gumbomoop]

Reviving this thread on the eve of tonight’s big test at Clemson. We need to win tonight, badly. Big Mo, etc.

This has been a bad week for Duke. Because our sloppy play in the face of UVa’s smart play led to defeat Mon night, we could have used a little help the last couple of nights from lower-tier teams against our emerging competitors at the top of the ACC.

We got no help at all. Clemson couldn’t get a key stop, lost to the Heels. Last night all of UL (@ND), GT (@Miami), and Pack (H to Wake), kept their games tight until last few minutes, but all faltered badly. We got no help at all.

Although it’s true that we will top the league if we “just take care of business,” we haven’t done so in 3 tight ACC games. Surely Duke has the most talent in the ACC, but current standings and remaining schedules hardly indicate a smooth road to the top. Not even the top 4/double bye.

Some scenarios ...

Scenario 1 — We take care of business, win out, 17-3, top seed, as we hold tie-breaker over ND, the only other team that could possibly (and very unlikely) get to 17-3.

Scenario 2 — A 3- or 4-way tie at 15-5.

• Duke — Our remaining schedule is challenging, with 5 of 8 on the road. We probably “should” win 7 of the 8, getting to 16-4, and “surely” 6 of 8, getting to 15-5. But shoulda-coulda-woulda is also a possibility.
• ND — Irish, at this moment tops (10-3), have a very favorable schedule remaining, with 4 of 7 at home v. mostly bottom-tier teams. Further, they have but a single game (@ Wake) v. current top 6. They’re a good bet to finish no worse than 15-5, possibly 16-4.
• Wake — Another very favorable schedule, 4 of 6 at home, including final 2 H to not-good UL and NCSt. If Wake can win 2 of next 3 — H to Miami, @ Duke, H to ND — they “should” finish 15-5.
• Miami — Medium-difficulty schedule, I guess: 5 of 7 on road, but only 2 with current top 6, including H to UVa. But their only other H is with sneaky-dangerous VT, so Canes, now 9-4, don’t seem good bet for 15-5.
• UNC — Sad to report, despite their recent pummeling by Duke, they also won 2 close road games, and have a very favorable schedule, with 4 of 7 at home, only @ Duke with top 6. Very badly do we want sneaky-dangerous VT to beat the Heels in Blacksburg. Heels likely to get to 15-5, just possibly end up 16-4, #1. Blech.
• UVa — At 9-5, it will be tough for Hoos to get double bye. Difficult games @ VT and Miami, and H to Duke.

Scenario 2a — A 4-way 15-5 tie between Duke, ND, Wake, and Heels, including Duke beating either Wake or UNC. Duke would get ACCT 1-seed via tie-breaker, 4-1 record v. other 3.

Scenario 3 — Duke loses tonight, gets into funk, loses @UVa, @ Cuse, and to someone else, Wake, UNC, whatever. Double bye bye.

Duke needs to win tonight. Badly.

[UrinalCake]

Nice breakdown gumbo. I think we really need Wake to beat ND and then us to beat Wake. But I'm glad we have the tie breaker over ND. Also UNC's cakewalk of a schedule may actually work against them because they still do not have any Q1 wins and no major conference team has ever gotten an at-large bid with zero Q1 wins. Their remaining chances are the home finale against us and @VT. Lose those two and they may need to win the ACCT to make the tournament, regardless of what else happens.

[CDu]

Nice breakdown gumbo. I think we really need Wake to beat ND and then us to beat Wake. But I'm glad we have the tie breaker over ND. Also UNC's cakewalk of a schedule may actually work against them because they still do not have any Q1 wins and no major conference team has ever gotten an at-large bid with zero Q1 wins. Their remaining chances are the home finale against us and @VT. Lose those two and they may need to win the ACCT to make the tournament, regardless of what else happens.

Yes, Wake beating Notre Dame would be quite helpful. Technically, we control our own destiny either way. But given our inconsistency, it isn't reasonable to assume we'll win out the regular season. So giving Notre Dame any extra losses is a plus.

We can effectively eliminate UVa and UNC by beating them, as with Wake. But we have no control over Notre Dame. So any extra losses they can get is a good thing.

[MarkD83]

Yes, Wake beating Notre Dame would be quite helpful. Technically, we control our own destiny either way. But given our inconsistency, it isn't reasonable to assume we'll win out the regular season. So giving Notre Dame any extra losses is a plus.

We can effectively eliminate UVa and UNC by beating them, as with Wake. But we have no control over Notre Dame. So any extra losses they can get is a good thing.

I still feel that Miami needs a loss as well, if 16-4 is the target for first place.

Miami still has to play UVA, VT and Syracuse. (I include VT and Syracuse since they are showing signs of life.)

ND still has to play Wake and Syracuse

unc still has to play Duke, VT and Syracuse

UVA still has to play Miami, Duke and VT

Wake still has to play Duke and ND

So other than Duke games...Miami v UVA; Wake v ND will give some 10 win team extra losses and then cheer for VT and Syracuse to win out (except against Duke).

[CDu]

I still feel that Miami needs a loss as well, if 16-4 is the target for first place.

Miami still has to play UVA, VT and Syracuse. (I include VT and Syracuse since they are showing signs of life.)

ND still has to play Wake and Syracuse

unc still has to play Duke, VT and Syracuse

UVA still has to play Miami, Duke and VT

Wake still has to play Duke and ND

So other than Duke games...Miami v UVA; Wake v ND will give some 10 win team extra losses and then cheer for VT and Syracuse to win out (except against Duke).

We unquestionably want Wake to win vs ND. The Deacs are two losses plus a head-to-head behind us, whereas we have no breathing room vs Miami or ND. The Miami trip to VT will be worth watching.

[gumbomoop]

Updating my post before Clemson game, and playing off MarkD83’s update post this morning. I’ll add to MarkD’s listing of big games with some emphasis on the H/A factor.

The Miami trip to VT will be worth watching.

First, a friendly but important amendment here: It’s VT @ Miami.

I still feel that Miami needs a loss as well, if 16-4 is the target for first place.

Miami still has to play UVA, VT and Syracuse. (I include VT and Syracuse since they are showing signs of life.)

ND still has to play Wake and Syracuse

unc still has to play Duke, VT and Syracuse

UVA still has to play Miami, Duke and VT

Wake still has to play Duke and ND

So other than Duke games...Miami v UVA; Wake v ND will give some 10 win team extra losses and then cheer for VT and Syracuse to win out (except against Duke).

After our win over Clemson and the results of yesterday’s games, there’s still a single 17-3 scenario, with a more likely set of 16-4 scenarios.

Updated Scenario 1 — 17-3. Duke and ND both win out.

Updated Scenario 2 — A 3- or 4-way tie at 16-4.

• Duke (11-3) — Six games left, of which 5 are “revenge” games, second games with opponent: H Wake, H FSU, @ UVa, @ Cuse, @ Pitt, H UNC. Duke’s schedule going in looks tougher than the other 3 possible 16-4 teams. Won’t be easy to win 5 of 6, much less all 6.
• ND (11-3) — Looks to have a much easier schedule going forward than Duke and all the top 6: H BC, @ Wake, H Cuse, H GT, @FSU, H Pitt. After @ Wake, ND’s next “toughest” games are H Cuse and @ FSU. Whoa! At the beginning of this season, I posted that re unbalanced ACC schedules, ND had the easiest of likely top half teams, and that therefore the Irish, “with veteran team and very favorable schedule, should be a not-surprising ‘surprise team’ in the conference this season.” Of ND’s 20 games, 12 were/are v. BC, GT, Clemson, UL, NCSt, Pitt. Whoa, again. The Irish are very likely to finish in top 3, even possibly #1 by themselves.
• Miami (10-4) — Yes, as MarkD says, we want them to lose at least one more. Their win yesterday @ Wake was big for them. Their “medium-difficulty” schedule has gotten marginally easier, but getting to 16-4 still isn’t likely. They are: @UL, H UVa, @ Pitt, H VT, @ BC, @ Cuse. They do get their toughest opponents at home, but Miami could lose to any of their inferior opponents on the road.
• UNC (10-4) — Blech, blech, blech. Pretty favorable schedule: H Pitt, @ VT, H UL, @ NCSt, H Cuse, @ Duke. Want sneaky-dangerous VT to beat ‘em. Otherwise, K’s last game in Cameron could be for first place.
• Wake (10-5] — They messed up losing to Miami. We need their revenge match at Cameron to fall flat Tuesday night, but then for the Deacs to recover and beat ND at home next weekend. Going in, Deacs have: @ Duke, H ND, @Clemson, H UL, H NCSt.
• UVa (10-5) — I guess they are now thinking/hoping NCAAT bubble, right? Tough schedule, but Hoos are dangerous opponents for Miami and Duke. Going in: @ VT, @ Miami, H Duke, H FSU, @ UL.
• VT (7-7) — Just adding them because they have some big games going in, including H UVa, H UNC, and @ Miami. Go Hokies!

[simplyluvin]

Updating my post before Clemson game, and playing off MarkD83’s update post this morning. I’ll add to MarkD’s listing of big games with some emphasis on the H/A factor.



First, a friendly but important amendment here: It’s VT @ Miami.




After our win over Clemson and the results of yesterday’s games, there’s still a single 17-3 scenario, with a more likely set of 16-4 scenarios.

Updated Scenario 1 — 17-3. Duke and ND both win out.

Updated Scenario 2 — A 3- or 4-way tie at 16-4.

• Duke (11-3) — Six games left, of which 5 are “revenge” games, second games with opponent: H Wake, H FSU, @ UVa, @ Cuse, @ Pitt, H UNC. Duke’s schedule going in looks tougher than the other 3 possible 16-4 teams. Won’t be easy to win 5 of 6, much less all 6.
• ND (11-3) — Looks to have a much easier schedule going forward than Duke and all the top 6: H BC, @ Wake, H Cuse, H GT, @FSU, H Pitt. After @ Wake, ND’s next “toughest” games are H Cuse and @ FSU. Whoa! At the beginning of this season, I posted that re unbalanced ACC schedules, ND had the easiest of likely top half teams, and that therefore the Irish, “with veteran team and very favorable schedule, should be a not-surprising ‘surprise team’ in the conference this season.” Of ND’s 20 games, 12 were/are v. BC, GT, Clemson, UL, NCSt, Pitt. Whoa, again. The Irish are very likely to finish in top 3, even possibly #1 by themselves.
• Miami (10-4) — Yes, as MarkD says, we want them to lose at least one more. Their win yesterday @ Wake was big for them. Their “medium-difficulty” schedule has gotten marginally easier, but getting to 16-4 still isn’t likely. They are: @UL, H UVa, @ Pitt, H VT, @ BC, @ Cuse. They do get their toughest opponents at home, but Miami could lose to any of their inferior opponents on the road.
• UNC (10-4) — Blech, blech, blech. Pretty favorable schedule: H Pitt, @ VT, H UL, @ NCSt, H Cuse, @ Duke. Want sneaky-dangerous VT to beat ‘em. Otherwise, K’s last game in Cameron could be for first place.
• Wake (10-5] — They messed up losing to Miami. We need their revenge match at Cameron to fall flat Tuesday night, but then for the Deacs to recover and beat ND at home next weekend. Going in, Deacs have: @ Duke, H ND, @Clemson, H UL, H NCSt.
• UVa (10-5) — I guess they are now thinking/hoping NCAAT bubble, right? Tough schedule, but Hoos are dangerous opponents for Miami and Duke. Going in: @ VT, @ Miami, H Duke, H FSU, @ UL.
• VT (7-7) — Just adding them because they have some big games going in, including H UVa, H UNC, and @ Miami. Go Hokies!

Feeling like either 5-1 or 4-2 the rest of the way have a combined probability of 80+%. In the 15-5 scenario dissected above we really need ND, Miami, and the Cheats to lose two, with Miami holding a tiebreaker on us and we on ND and Cheats if we hold serve at home. We need to take care of Wake this week and then get help from them against ND.

Double bye is the most imminent goal but winning out or no worse than one loss would still put us in okay position for a one seed in the dance.