MBB: Duke vs Syracuse (Sat, Jan 22, 12pm ESPN) Pre- and In-game Thread

[Native]

Back in my day, we had a superstition that Duke always won in the snow. And the students wouldn't let a little white stuff (as unusual as it was in those days) keep us out of Cameron. A full student section is capable of plenty of noise.

Anybody else remember the pregame blizzard before UNC 2015? I distinctly remember Jay Williams coming out to K-Ville to pump up the tenter line over the megaphone.

Anyway, we were down 7 with 1:30 to go and had some Tyus Stones magic to take us to an eventual OT win. Snow games are awesome. Wouldn’t be surprised if the students are more amped up due to snow—especially if class is canceled.

[jimsumner]

The worst winter weather I can remember at Cameron was in 1996, a Sunday afternoon game against Georgia Tech. A pretty significant snowfall followed by a serious coating of ice just shut down the Triangle. So few people showed up that Duke basically opened the doors to anyone who could make it inside and let people sit anywhere. Still, the upper section was almost completely empty. This was one of Cremins' better teams--Marbury, Harpring, Barry--and they edged Duke. I've always thought that the relative absence of fans contributed to that win.

[CameronDuke]

GA tickets in the student section are going for as low as $194.25 currently in some secondary markets.

[Dr. Maturin]

With every passing year, teams rely more on the 3-ball, and with that evolution the 2-3 zone becomes less and less viable in my view. Cuse's opponents are shooting more than 50% of their shots from beyond the arc, which is pretty astounding. Boeheim makes that trade off in order to prevent easy 2's around the rim, and that's just not working this year. Their Center, Jesse Edwards, is actually a pretty interesting player - he blocks a lot of shots and makes 70% of his attempts. Otherwise there doesn't seem to be much they do well defensively. Boeheim's better defenses have length and athleticism to create turnovers out of the zone, and they don't seem to have that this year.

On the other side of the ball, they shoot the ball really well. The easiest way for Syracuse to win this game is to turn it into a 3-point contest. Buddy and Girard will probably get theirs, but I don't think Cuse has the athletic ball handlers that often give Duke trouble. Keep them from getting open 3s and Duke may be okay.

All in all, I think it's a good matchup for Duke. Syracuse doesn't play good defense, and their offense profiles as the kind of team Duke has success against.

[Dr. Maturin]

As for 3-point shooting, Duke has 3 guys shooting 40% or better. If you told me before the season that AJ and Dell would be in that club, I would have been pretty surprised. Keels is really the only guy who has disappointed in that department. And the staff seems to be fine with him being the highest-volume 3-point shooter on the team. I think his shooting may still come good as the season progresses. After watching this team play a handful of games, I set a benchmark of 35%- significantly better would be gravy, significantly lower would be cause for concern. Duke has exceeded my expectations in terms of 3-point percentage while still being a team that doesn't overly rely on the 3-ball.

[CDu]

With every passing year, teams rely more on the 3-ball, and with that evolution the 2-3 zone becomes less and less viable in my view. Cuse's opponents are shooting more than 50% of their shots from beyond the arc, which is pretty astounding. Boeheim makes that trade off in order to prevent easy 2's around the rim, and that's just not working this year. Their Center, Jesse Edwards, is actually a pretty interesting player - he blocks a lot of shots and makes 70% of his attempts. Otherwise there doesn't seem to be much they do well defensively. Boeheim's better defenses have length and athleticism to create turnovers out of the zone, and they don't seem to have that this year.

On the other side of the ball, they shoot the ball really well. The easiest way for Syracuse to win this game is to turn it into a 3-point contest. Buddy and Girard will probably get theirs, but I don't think Cuse has the athletic ball handlers that often give Duke trouble. Keep them from getting open 3s and Duke may be okay.

All in all, I think it's a good matchup for Duke. Syracuse doesn't play good defense, and their offense profiles as the kind of team Duke has success against.

Syracuse had a good 2-3 zone defense 3 years ago, and both Syracuse and Duke had an elite one just 4 years ago. Their struggles defensively are personnel related, not system related. In 2018, they were elite at defending the 3.

If you have the length and athleticism, you can still defend the 3 well in a zone. They just don’t have the length or athleticism to do it this year.

[jimsumner]

From the front page

https://www.dukebasketballreport.com...rida-state-acc

[CameronDuke]

Tickets are down to $170 a piece in some secondary markets now. Will they go under $150? $125?

[Dr. Maturin]

Syracuse had a good 2-3 zone defense 3 years ago, and both Syracuse and Duke had an elite one just 4 years ago. Their struggles defensively are personnel related, not system related. In 2018, they were elite at defending the 3.

If you have the length and athleticism, you can still defend the 3 well in a zone. They just don’t have the length or athleticism to do it this year.

In 2018, Syracuse's opponents shot 44.5% of their shots from 3. That is a huge number. Opponents only made 31.8% of them, sure. But it's generally understood that defenses have way more control over the number of 3s they allow than the percentage their opponents make. I'm sure they were probably a bit better at defending the three that year, but they still gave up a ton of 3 point attempts. Personnel definitely matters, but the 2-3 zone absolutely gives up more 3s than man to man does.

[CDu]

In 2018, Syracuse's opponents shot 44.5% of their shots from 3. That is a huge number. Opponents only made 31.8% of them, sure. But it's generally understood that defenses have way more control over the number of 3s they allow than the percentage their opponents make. I'm sure they were probably a bit better at defending the three that year, but they still gave up a ton of 3 point attempts. Personnel definitely matters, but the 2-3 zone absolutely gives up more 3s than man to man does.

I know that some consider it the case that you can’t control 3pt percentage. But I am not sure I buy it. Duke, for example, is consistently very good at defensive 3pt%. Last year being a notable exception. But we have been top-50 nationally in defensive 3pt% 8 of the last 10 years.

Similarly, Syracuse - up until Buddy Boeheim arrived - has generally been at least decent at defending the 3 %wise. They certainly give up a high volume of attempts, but historically they still contest them heavily.

[Dr. Maturin]

I know that some consider it the case that you can’t control 3pt percentage. But I am not sure I buy it. Duke, for example, is consistently very good at defensive 3pt%. Last year being a notable exception. But we have been top-50 nationally in defensive 3pt% 8 of the last 10 years.

Similarly, Syracuse - up until Buddy Boeheim arrived - has generally been at least decent at defending the 3 %wise. They certainly give up a high volume of attempts, but historically they still contest them heavily.

Yeah, it's an interesting debate. Pomeroy wrote a blog post about it awhile back: https://kenpom.com/blog/offense-vs-defense-threepoint-attempts/

I do think defenses have some control over 3 point %, but there's also so much random variance in shooting 3s. In any case, my point is that it's harder to use the 2-3 zone to defend the 3 than it has been in the past. These days, more teams are playing small ball and/or have big guys that can shoot 3s. If you play a 5 out offense, it's really difficult for a 2-3 zone to cover everybody.

[-jk]

Latest weather forecasts seem more promising - at least for us to get from DC to Durm tomorrow evening.

-jk

[sagegrouse]

From the ESPN schedule with "tickets as low as" prices:
Syracuse @ Duke $149.00
VT @ BC $2.00
FSU @Miami $48.00
Notre Dame @ Lou. $26.00
UVa @ NC State $12.00
Pitt @ Clemson $6.00
UNC @ Wake $49.00

[brevity]

From the ESPN schedule with "tickets as low as" prices:
Syracuse @ Duke $149.00
VT @ BC $2.00
FSU @Miami $48.00
Notre Dame @ Lou. $26.00
UVa @ NC State $12.00
Pitt @ Clemson $6.00
UNC @ Wake $49.00

The best deal in Boston?

dunkindeal.jpg

[CameronDuke]

Duke’s defense has dropped down to 27 on Kenpom.

I hope by the end of the game tomorrow, it can move back into the top 25.

[Saratoga2]

The good news here is that Cuse's guards are, for the most part, relatively slow and not particularly creative. Buddy Boeheim has decent handles and is capable of creating his own shot off the dribble, but Swider and Girard are really just threats as set shooters. On defense, we don't need to play them with dribble penetration in mind. They'll look to kick or pull up rather than go to the rim.

The bad news could be Keels in not available as he is one of the better defensive players on the team and is a decent play maker.

[jv001]

As for 3-point shooting, Duke has 3 guys shooting 40% or better. If you told me before the season that AJ and Dell would be in that club, I would have been pretty surprised. Keels is really the only guy who has disappointed in that department. And the staff seems to be fine with him being the highest-volume 3-point shooter on the team. I think his shooting may still come good as the season progresses. After watching this team play a handful of games, I set a benchmark of 35%- significantly better would be gravy, significantly lower would be cause for concern. Duke has exceeded my expectations in terms of 3-point percentage while still being a team that doesn't overly rely on the 3-ball.

Duke has 4 guys at 40% or better. That's if you count Bates Jones. He's at 42%(5 of 12). I know that's a small sample size but he does seem to have a good looking shot.

GoDuke!

[CameronDuke]

The temporary suspension of food and beverage services at home athletic events has been extended through at least Sunday, Jan. 23

[chrishoke]

The temporary suspension of food and beverage services at home athletic events has been extended through at least Sunday, Jan. 23

Good call

[gumbomoop]

[Keels likely out] gives Roach opportunity to play 30+ minutes and maybe Blakes sees the floor.

I’d think Jones more likely to get a cameo than Blakes. I hope to see Banchero flashing to the FT line frequently, with 3 of our quartet of good 3-pt shooters (Griffin, Moore, Baker, Jones) ready to shoot from the perimeter, Williams ready for lob. Banchero is a major threat to shoot, drive, kick it out, or lob.

Couldn’t afford to play Baker and Jones at same time, but if Baker is off, I’d like to see Jones get a shot, in both senses of the phrase.

I’ve been impressed with Roach starting with second half v. Wake. And he’s adequate from 3, too. Surely either he or Moore can get it to Banchero in the middle. Surely.